We are now 75% done with the non-conference portion of the schedule, and while it's still VERY early, winning these games do have implications for every team's end-of-season win total. Iowa and Northwestern, for instance, have set themselves up nicely for 8+ win seasons. Nebraska, on the other hand, has increased their odds of winning fewer than 8 games after two absolutely brutal losses in the first three weeks. Again, it's still early, and injuries/bad luck/whatever can still happen and fortunes can reverse. But, as it stands now, teams that have started 3-0 are siting better than teams sitting 1-2.*
*LOL NEBRASKA
But, without further ado, here are the projected season win totals for the 2015 season, as of today:
THOR+ Rank | B1G West Season Wins | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
9 | Wisconsin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 3.0% | 15.5% | 22.5% | 31.6% | 20.0% | 6.4% | 0.0% |
24 | Nebraska | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.2% | 4.0% | 11.5% | 21.8% | 28.4% | 21.7% | 9.6% | 1.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
41 | Northwestern | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 3.6% | 10.5% | 22.9% | 31.8% | 19.3% | 9.1% | 1.9% | 0.2% |
48 | Iowa | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 2.7% | 10.6% | 21.5% | 27.3% | 22.2% | 11.2% | 3.6% | 0.5% |
51 | Illinois | 0.0% | 0.4% | 3.5% | 12.9% | 26.3% | 26.4% | 18.7% | 8.2% | 3.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
62 | Minnesota | 0.0% | 0.8% | 4.4% | 15.7% | 24.3% | 27.2% | 16.8% | 8.0% | 2.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
75 | Purdue | 0.9% | 6.0% | 14.9% | 27.8% | 24.7% | 18.0% | 6.1% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
THOR+ Rank | B1G East Season Wins | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
8 | Ohio State | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.7% | 3.0% | 9.6% | 21.3% | 29.6% | 26.5% | 9.2% |
25 | Michigan State | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.9% | 2.8% | 10.9% | 23.5% | 30.8% | 21.3% | 8.7% | 1.1% |
28 | Michigan | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.1% | 5.0% | 13.6% | 25.4% | 27.1% | 19.5% | 7.3% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
47 | Penn State | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 2.1% | 10.4% | 21.0% | 30.6% | 23.6% | 10.3% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
73 | Maryland | 0.0% | 1.4% | 10.3% | 20.2% | 30.4% | 21.2% | 11.1% | 4.8% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
94 | Rutgers | 0.9% | 7.7% | 19.6% | 32.3% | 22.7% | 13.1% | 3.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
105 | Indiana | 0.0% | 0.0% | 5.0% | 18.9% | 29.8% | 25.2% | 14.6% | 5.2% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Here are the projected conference wins:
THOR+ Rank | B1G West Conference Wins | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
9 | Wisconsin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.8% | 2.3% | 11.6% | 23.8% | 31.2% | 23.2% | 7.1% |
24 | Nebraska | 0.0% | 0.6% | 3.1% | 10.2% | 19.9% | 29.1% | 24.2% | 10.6% | 2.3% |
41 | Northwestern | 0.5% | 2.6% | 8.6% | 22.4% | 32.3% | 21.4% | 9.8% | 2.1% | 0.3% |
48 | Iowa | 0.3% | 2.0% | 9.2% | 19.2% | 27.8% | 24.4% | 12.6% | 4.0% | 0.5% |
51 | Illinois | 1.4% | 9.3% | 23.5% | 27.9% | 23.8% | 9.5% | 4.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
62 | Minnesota | 1.4% | 10.3% | 22.4% | 30.1% | 21.0% | 11.0% | 3.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
75 | Purdue | 1.8% | 10.7% | 23.5% | 29.5% | 21.9% | 10.4% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
THOR+ Rank | B1G East Conference Wins | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
8 | Ohio State | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.7% | 2.2% | 7.4% | 20.2% | 30.4% | 28.3% | 10.7% |
25 | Michigan State | 0.0% | 0.2% | 2.3% | 8.7% | 21.8% | 31.9% | 23.6% | 10.0% | 1.5% |
28 | Michigan | 0.0% | 0.1% | 2.6% | 10.5% | 19.8% | 30.6% | 23.8% | 10.7% | 1.9% |
47 | Penn State | 0.1% | 1.2% | 7.4% | 19.5% | 31.1% | 27.1% | 10.9% | 2.5% | 0.2% |
73 | Maryland | 2.0% | 11.9% | 22.7% | 30.8% | 20.7% | 8.5% | 3.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
94 | Rutgers | 4.6% | 16.9% | 33.4% | 25.9% | 14.2% | 4.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
105 | Indiana | 7.5% | 23.0% | 34.1% | 21.4% | 11.0% | 2.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Not much has changed for the projected winners of each division. THOR+ still likes Wisconsin to take advantage of their easy schedule, giving them better than 50% odds at reaching 9 total wins and at least 6 conference wins. Then it goes to Nebraska, who despite their non-conference woes, is still projected to win 5-6 Big Ten games this season thanks to their offense. And then behind the Huskers, Iowa and Northwestern are fighting it out for 7-9 overall wins and 3-5 conference wins. And let's be honest, Illinois and Minnesota are still in the hunt since it's so early and both teams are 2-1, tough conference schedules aside. Basically, the Big Ten West is still a crap shoot, you guys.
The East, meanwhile, is all Ohio State and Michigan State. The Buckeyes suddenly look more vulnerable, but are still very good. Of course, Michigan State is probably the only team in the East capable of taking the division from them.
Finally, here are the mean, min, and max wins for each team.
THOR+ | B1G West | Mean Wins | Min. Wins | Max. Wins | Mean B1G Wins | Min B1G Wins | Max B1G Wins |
9 | Wisconsin | 8.7 | 4 | 11 | 5.8 | 2 | 8 |
24 | Nebraska | 6.8 | 3 | 10 | 5.0 | 1 | 8 |
41 | Northwestern | 7.9 | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 | 8 |
48 | Iowa | 8.1 | 3 | 12 | 4.2 | 0 | 8 |
51 | Illinois | 5.8 | 2 | 10 | 3.1 | 0 | 7 |
62 | Minnesota | 5.7 | 2 | 10 | 3.1 | 0 | 8 |
75 | Purdue | 4.6 | 1 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 | 7 |
THOR+ | B1G East | Mean Wins | Min. Wins | Max. Wins | Mean B1G Wins | Min B1G Wins | Max B1G Wins |
8 | Ohio State | 9.9 | 4 | 12 | 6.0 | 1 | 8 |
25 | Michigan State | 8.8 | 5 | 12 | 5.0 | 1 | 8 |
28 | Michigan | 7.7 | 4 | 11 | 5.0 | 1 | 8 |
47 | Penn State | 7.0 | 2 | 11 | 4.2 | 0 | 8 |
73 | Maryland | 5.2 | 2 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 | 7 |
94 | Rutgers | 4.2 | 1 | 8 | 2.4 | 0 | 6 |
105 | Indiana | 5.5 | 3 | 10 | 2.1 | 0 | 6 |
Big Ten West
Iowa
Date | Iowa | Team | Rank | Projected Win% |
9/5 | Home | Illinios State | FCS | W |
9/12 | Away | Iowa State | 77 | W |
9/19 | Home | Pittsburgh | 50 | W |
9/26 | Home | North Texas | 118 | 85% |
10/3 | Away | Wisconsin | 9 | 23% |
10/10 | Home | Illinois | 51 | 58% |
10/17 | Away | Northwestern | 41 | 40% |
10/31 | Home | Maryland | 73 | 67% |
11/7 | Away | Indiana | 105 | 68% |
11/14 | Home | Minnesota | 62 | 63% |
11/21 | Home | Purdue | 75 | 69% |
11/27 | Away | Nebraska | 24 | 31% |
The Hawkeyes have a pretty decent looking remaining schedule. The one potential issue, is that the three games in which they are not favored to win all come against Big Ten West opponents on the road. They are going to need to take 1-2 of those if they want to win the West this year.
Illinois
Date | Illinois | Team | Rank | Projected Win% |
9/5 | Home | Kent State | 111 | W |
9/12 | Home | W. Illinois | FCS | W |
9/19 | Away | North Carolina | 17 | L |
9/26 | Home | Middle Tennessee | 83 | 71% |
10/3 | Home | Nebraska | 24 | 45% |
10/10 | Away | Iowa | 48 | 42% |
10/24 | Home | Wisconsin | 9 | 37% |
10/31 | Away | Penn State | 47 | 42% |
11/7 | Away | Purdue | 75 | 55% |
11/14 | Home | Ohio State | 8 | 35% |
11/21 | Away | Minnesota | 62 | 48% |
11/28 | Neutral | Northwestern | 41 | 47% |
We still don't know how good Illinois is, but their conference schedule does not appear to be set up for success.
Minnesota
Date | Minnesota | Team | Rank | Projected Win% |
9/3 | Home | TCU | 18 | L |
9/12 | Away | Colorado State | 53 | W |
9/19 | Home | Kent State | 111 | W |
9/26 | Home | Ohio | 67 | 59% |
10/3 | Away | Northwestern | 41 | 35% |
10/10 | Away | Purdue | 75 | 49% |
10/17 | Home | Nebraska | 24 | 39% |
10/31 | Home | Michigan | 28 | 41% |
11/7 | Away | Ohio State | 8 | 18% |
11/14 | Away | Iowa | 48 | 37% |
11/21 | Home | Illinois | 51 | 52% |
11/28 | Home | Wisconsin | 9 | 32% |
Speaking of schedules that do not appear to be set up for success... Minnesota's defense will likely keep them in just about every game, but they need to figure that offense out quick.
Nebraska
Date | Nebraska | Team | Rank | Projected Win% |
9/5 | Home | BYU | 40 | L |
9/12 | Home | South Alabama | 116 | W |
9/19 | Away | Miami (Florida) | 36 | L |
9/26 | Home | Southern Mississippi | 102 | 85% |
10/3 | Away | Illinois | 51 | 55% |
10/10 | Home | Wisconsin | 9 | 50.3% |
10/17 | Away | Minnesota | 62 | 61% |
10/24 | Home | Northwestern | 41 | 67% |
10/31 | Away | Purdue | 75 | 67% |
11/7 | Home | Michigan State | 25 | 59% |
11/14 | Away | Rutgers | 94 | 73% |
11/28 | Home | Iowa | 48 | 69% |
As much as I love laughing at Nebraska, their schedule isn't much harder than Iowa's or Wisconsin's, outside of playing Michigan State. The Spartans are definitely a tough team, but Nebraska gets them, the Badgers, the Wildcats, and the Hawkeyes all at home. Let's all hope that Blackshirt defense continues to look awful for the next two months.
Northwestern
Date | Northwestern | Team | Rank | Projected Win% |
9/5 | Home | Stanford | 13 | W |
9/12 | Home | Eastern Illinois | FCS | W |
9/19 | Away | Duke | 39 | W |
9/26 | Home | Ball State | 121 | 87% |
10/3 | Home | Minnesota | 62 | 65% |
10/10 | Away | Michigan | 28 | 35% |
10/17 | Home | Iowa | 48 | 60% |
10/24 | Away | Nebraska | 24 | 33% |
11/7 | Home | Penn State | 47 | 59% |
11/14 | Home | Purdue | 75 | 71% |
11/21 | Away | Wisconsin | 9 | 25% |
11/28 | Neutral | Illinois | 51 | 53% |
So yeah, Northwestern will probably be 4-0 after Saturday. And their conference schedule looks pretty manageable, as well. That's assuming their defense continues to look elite and can offset their inept offense, of course.
Purdue
Date | Purdue | Team | Rank | Projected Win% |
9/6 | Away | Marshall | 58 | L |
9/12 | Home | Indiana State | FCS | W |
9/19 | Home | Virginia Tech | 49 | L |
9/26 | Home | Bowling Green | 74 | 57% |
10/3 | Away | Michigan State | 25 | 22% |
10/10 | Home | Minnesota | 62 | 51% |
10/17 | Away | Wisconsin | 9 | 15% |
10/31 | Home | Nebraska | 24 | 33% |
11/7 | Home | Illinois | 51 | 45% |
11/14 | Away | Northwestern | 41 | 29% |
11/21 | Away | Iowa | 48 | 31% |
11/28 | Home | Indiana | 105 | 70% |
Purdue is favored over Bowling Green and Minnesota in what are essentially coin flip games. I expect them to lose one if not both of these games. I also expect it to be another long football season in West Lafayette.
Wisconsin
Date | Wisconsin | Team | Rank | Projected Win% |
9/5 | Neutral | Alabama | 5 | L |
9/12 | Home | Miami (Ohio) | 113 | W |
9/19 | Home | Troy | 97 | W |
9/26 | Home | Hawai'i | 82 | 86% |
10/3 | Home | Iowa | 48 | 77% |
10/10 | Away | Nebraska | 24 | 49.7% |
10/17 | Home | Purdue | 75 | 85% |
10/24 | Away | Illinois | 51 | 63% |
10/31 | Home | Rutgers | 94 | 88% |
11/7 | Away | Maryland | 73 | 72% |
11/21 | Home | Northwestern | 41 | 75% |
11/28 | Away | Minnesota | 62 | 68% |
I still don't know what to say about the Badgers. We probably won't get a decent idea of how good they are until next week.
Big Ten East
Indiana
Date | Indiana | Team | Rank | Projected Win% |
9/5 | Home | S. Illinois | FCS | W |
9/12 | Home | Florida International | 81 | W |
9/19 | Home | Western Kentucky | 63 | W |
9/26 | Away | Wake Forest | 78 | 32% |
10/3 | Home | Ohio State | 8 | 17% |
10/10 | Away | Penn State | 47 | 20% |
10/17 | Home | Rutgers | 94 | 52% |
10/24 | Away | Michigan State | 25 | 14% |
11/7 | Home | Iowa | 48 | 32% |
11/14 | Home | Michigan | 28 | 24% |
11/21 | Away | Maryland | 73 | 29% |
11/28 | Away | Purdue | 75 | 30% |
I know Indiana football fans are on cloud nine right now, but THOR+ thinks they are the worst undefeated team in the country right now. Additionally, THOR+ thinks their record should be something more like 1-2. And not only because their defense is hilariously bad, but I'll discuss that in the power rankings this week. Instead, I'll mention that I think Wake Forest is likely ranked too high at #78 by THOR+. Their offense -- which is probably as bad as Indiana's defense -- is being carried by what THOR+ thinks is pretty good defense. That may be true, and Wake Forest could win, but I would probably think this game is closer to 50/50 than the 32/68 it's projected at. But who knows?
Maryland
Date | Maryland | Team | Rank | Projected Win% |
9/5 | Home | Richmond | FCS | W |
9/12 | Home | Bowling Green | 74 | L |
9/19 | Home | South Florida | 79 | W |
9/26 | Away | West Virginia | 19 | 20% |
10/3 | Home | Michigan | 28 | 37% |
10/10 | Away | Ohio State | 8 | 15% |
10/24 | Neutral | Penn State | 47 | 39% |
10/31 | Away | Iowa | 48 | 33% |
11/7 | Home | Wisconsin | 9 | 28% |
11/14 | Away | Michigan State | 25 | 23% |
11/21 | Home | Indiana | 105 | 71% |
11/28 | Away | Rutgers | 94 | 52% |
Maryland admirably bounced back and took care of business against South Florida in week 3, but now it's about to get ugly. May the football deities have mercy on your soul, Randy Edsall.
Michigan
Date | Michigan | Team | Rank | Projected Win% |
9/3 | Away | Utah | 43 | L |
9/12 | Home | Oregon State | 88 | W |
9/19 | Home | UNLV | 119 | W |
9/26 | Home | BYU | 40 | 64% |
10/3 | Away | Maryland | 73 | 63% |
10/10 | Home | Northwestern | 41 | 65% |
10/17 | Home | Michigan State | 25 | 57% |
10/31 | Away | Minnesota | 62 | 59% |
11/7 | Home | Rutgers | 94 | 82% |
11/14 | Away | Indiana | 105 | 76% |
11/21 | Away | Penn State | 47 | 52% |
11/28 | Home | Ohio State | 8 | 46% |
The best game of the week looks like Michigan and BYU. If the Wolverines come away with the victory, 3-1 sets them up nicely for a manageable Big Ten schedule. You will notice they are favored in all but one game. However, there are a lot of 50-65% games listed there, so things could go either way. And if Michigan proves to be worse than THOR+ thinks they are right now, those margins could shrink as the season goes on.
Michigan State
Date | Michigan State | Team | Rank | Projected Win% |
9/4 | Away | Western Michigan | 89 | W |
9/12 | Home | Oregon | 52 | W |
9/19 | Home | Air Force | 70 | W |
9/26 | Home | Central Michigan | 99 | 85% |
10/3 | Home | Purdue | 75 | 78% |
10/10 | Away | Rutgers | 94 | 73% |
10/17 | Away | Michigan | 28 | 43% |
10/24 | Home | Indiana | 105 | 86% |
11/7 | Away | Nebraska | 24 | 41% |
11/14 | Home | Maryland | 73 | 77% |
11/21 | Away | Ohio State | 8 | 30% |
11/28 | Home | Penn State | 47 | 68% |
Just keep winning, Spartans. It will work itself out if you just keep winning.
Ohio State
Date | Ohio State | Team | Rank | Projected Win% |
9/7 | Away | Virginia Tech | 49 | W |
9/12 | Home | Hawai'i | 82 | W |
9/19 | Home | Northern Illinois | 55 | W |
9/26 | Home | Western Michigan | 89 | 88% |
10/3 | Away | Indiana | 105 | 83% |
10/10 | Home | Maryland | 73 | 85% |
10/17 | Home | Penn State | 47 | 78% |
10/24 | Away | Rutgers | 94 | 80% |
11/7 | Home | Minnesota | 62 | 82% |
11/14 | Away | Illinois | 51 | 65% |
11/21 | Home | Michigan State | 25 | 70% |
11/28 | Away | Michigan | 28 | 54% |
Trouble in paradise? Eh, maybe not so much. Although, if the Buckeyes continue to turn the ball over like this, it's going to burn them. But if it doesn't burn them against Michigan State, it may not be fatal.
Penn State
Date | Penn State | Team | Rank | Projected Win% |
9/5 | Away | Temple | 44 | L |
9/12 | Home | Buffalo | 96 | W |
9/19 | Home | Rutgers | 94 | W |
9/26 | Home | San Diego State | 107 | 81% |
10/3 | Home | Army | 104 | 79% |
10/10 | Home | Indiana | 105 | 80% |
10/17 | Away | Ohio State | 8 | 22% |
10/24 | Neutral | Maryland | 73 | 61% |
10/31 | Home | Illinois | 51 | 58% |
11/7 | Away | Northwestern | 41 | 41% |
11/21 | Home | Michigan | 28 | 48% |
11/28 | Away | Michigan State | 25 | 32% |
Good defense, bad offense (except you, Saquon Barkley), and what looks like a fairly tough conference schedule. At least the next two weeks look fairly easy.
Rutgers
Date | Rutgers | Team | Rank | Projected Win% |
9/5 | Home | Norfolk State | FCS | W |
9/12 | Home | Washington State | 86 | L |
9/19 | Away | Penn State | 47 | L |
9/26 | Home | Kansas | 122 | 78% |
10/10 | Home | Michigan State | 25 | 27% |
10/17 | Away | Indiana | 105 | 48% |
10/24 | Home | Ohio State | 8 | 20% |
10/31 | Away | Wisconsin | 9 | 12% |
11/7 | Away | Michigan | 28 | 18% |
11/14 | Home | Nebraska | 24 | 27% |
11/21 | Away | Army | 104 | 47% |
11/28 | Home | Maryland | 73 | 48% |
At least you're not Kansas football, Rutgers. That's at least one positive you can take from this season.