YOUR-STILL-WAY-TOO-EARLY BIG TEN POWER RANKINGS: POST-WEEK 2

Week 2 is now behind us, but we still only have two whole data points to work with in regards to every Big Ten team. There appears to be a few certainties thus far, like Ohio State and Michigan State both being very good. Or like Maryland, Rutgers, and Indiana having absolutely awful defenses. But there are still way more unknowns. For instance, how good is anyone in the Big Ten West? Is the division Wisconsin's for the taking? Or will one of Iowa, Illinois, Minnesota, Nebraska, or Northwestern (sorry, Purdue) step up and take it? At this point in time, there are still too many question marks for each of the six teams I just listed for us to really know anything about how the conference slate will play out.

Because of this uncertainty, the numbers you will find below are still 60% influenced by the preseason projections. For those who were upset that Iowa's offensive rushing rating was still bad after week 1, you will see that they are now almost average after week 2. These things work themselves out after enough games are played. The preseason projections are weighted so heavily early on to make sure that the numbers don't completely overreact to one game. You know, to help avoid Illinois being rated #1 overall after devouring their first two cupcakes by a total score of 96-3. You're welcome.

This week will be a less-wordy version of the Power Rankings, as I am on vacation and don't have a whole lot of time or motivation. So, I'll just leave you with a few reminders. All ratings are on a scale where 100 = the FBS average. The higher a number is above 100, the better a team is in that category. The lower a team falls under 100, the worse a team is in that particular category. Additionally, the points per game, points per game allowed, win percentage, and wins all listed below are estimates of the true talent level of each team if they were to play an exactly average schedule.

Lastly, a reminder of how the game watch rating works:

It takes into account the ranking of each team (games between two highly ranked teams are generally fun to watch), how close the game is expected to be (everyone loves a close, competitive game), and how many points are projected to be scored (sorry, defense fans, but people love when both teams score a lot of points). It then spits out a number that tells you how entertaining the game should be to watch. Like the rest of my ratings, 100 is average.

Keep in mind this metric gives equal weight to each of those three things listed. I think what I failed to mention last week is that part of looking at the THOR+ ranking of each team is not just about how highly-ranked they are, but the game watch rating also takes into account how similarly-ranked each team is. A game is expected to be closer/more entertaining when both teams are ranked right around each other. So, a game between two similarly lesser-ranked opponents that is projected be 44-41 with a 55/45% win probability split is likely going to have a higher game watch rating than a contest between two highly-ranked opponents that is projected to end 30-21 with a 65/35% win probability split. The more criteria a game projection meets, the higher the rating will be. So, if a game between two lesser-ranked teams has a higher game watch rating than you are expecting, look at how close the game is projected to be, the number of points projected to be scored (*cough* Indiana and Western Kentucky *cough*), and don't forget to look at how closely ranked each team is to their opponent (*cough* Maryland and South Florida *cough*). The main point of the game watch rating isn't to say that better football is being played in one game compared to another. It's more trying to give the viewer an idea of what games could be entertaining to watch, or are at least worth catching the end of.

Now, to the Power Rankings!

Big Ten Power Rankings Post-Week 2

Rank	Team	Coach	Offense+	Defense+	Special Teams+	THOR+	PPG vs. Avg.	PPGA vs. Avg.	W% vs. Avg.	W vs. Avg.
4	Ohio State	Urban Meyer	152	135	104	144	44.7	21.3	0.853	10.2
13	Wisconsin	Paul Chryst	139	127	131	131	41.9	23.0	0.758	9.1
16	Michigan State	Mark Dantonio	139	130	64	129	41.6	23.1	0.741	8.9
27	Michigan	Jim Harbaugh	105	144	108	122	32.9	19.5	0.687	8.2
34	Nebraska	Mike Riley	125	107	96	119	38.0	28.0	0.661	7.9
35	Illinois	Bill Cubit	104	135	113	118	32.6	21.5	0.658	7.9
47	Iowa	Kirk Ferentz	100	117	117	110	31.5	25.5	0.598	7.2
51	Northwestern	Pat Fitzgerald	64	152	122	109	22.5	17.6	0.585	7.0
56	Minnesota	Jerry Kill	87	123	115	106	28.5	24.3	0.563	6.8
63	Penn State	James Franklin	70	130	106	99	23.6	22.6	0.514	6.2
71	Purdue	Darrell Hazell	86	96	100	93	27.7	30.4	0.468	5.6
80	Maryland	Randy Edsall	99	69	158	87	31.9	36.4	0.423	5.1
82	Rutgers	Kyle Flood	98	68	133	87	31.8	37.0	0.418	5.0
96	Indiana	Kevin Wilson	92	62	83	78	29.5	38.6	0.351	4.2

1. Ohio State #4, 144 THOR+

Rank	Offense	Coach	Passing+	Rushing+	Turnovers	Blocking+	Offense+	PPG vs. Avg.
6	Ohio State	Urban Meyer	138	133	110	120	152	41.1

Rank	Defense	Coach	Passing+	Rushing+	Turnovers	Pressure+	Defense+	PPGA vs. Avg
19	Ohio State	Urban Meyer	139	121	138	125	135	17.7

Rank	Special Teams	Coach	Off. Special Teams+	PPG vs. Avg.	Def. Special Teams+	PPGA vs. Avg.	Special Teams+
57	Ohio State	Urban Meyer	74	3.6	134	3.5	104

Up Next: vs. #61 Northern Illinois

Game Watch Rating: 71

Win Probability: 93%

Projected Score: Ohio State 48, Northern Illinois 20

2. Wisconsin #13, 131 THOR+

Rank	Offense	Coach	Passing+	Rushing+	Turnovers	Blocking+	Offense+	PPG vs. Avg.
13	Wisconsin	Paul Chryst	118	109	116	104	139	37.8

Rank	Defense	Coach	Passing+	Rushing+	Turnovers	Pressure+	Defense+	PPGA vs. Avg
34	Wisconsin	Paul Chryst	128	117	106	144	127	19.6

Rank	Special Teams	Coach	Off. Special Teams+	PPG vs. Avg.	Def. Special Teams+	PPGA vs. Avg.	Special Teams+
9	Wisconsin	Paul Chryst	114	4.1	147	3.4	131

Up Next: vs. #98 Troy

Game Watch Rating: 44

Win Probability: 93%

Projected Score: Wisconsin 60, Troy 20

3. Michigan State #16, 129 THOR+

Rank	Offense	Coach	Passing+	Rushing+	Turnovers	Blocking+	Offense+	PPG vs. Avg.
14	Michigan State	Mark Dantonio	141	102	120	108	139	37.7

Rank	Defense	Coach	Passing+	Rushing+	Turnovers	Pressure+	Defense+	PPGA vs. Avg
29	Michigan State	Mark Dantonio	112	135	113	139	130	18.8

Rank	Special Teams	Coach	Off. Special Teams+	PPG vs. Avg.	Def. Special Teams+	PPGA vs. Avg.	Special Teams+
120	Michigan State	Mark Dantonio	96	3.9	32	4.3	64

Up Next: vs. #75 Air Force

Game Watch Rating: 73

Win Probability: 87%

Projected Score: Michigan State 52, Air Force 21

4. Michigan #27, 122 THOR+

Rank	Offense	Coach	Passing+	Rushing+	Turnovers	Blocking+	Offense+	PPG vs. Avg.
51	Michigan	Jim Harbaugh	72	109	73	115	105	28.9

Rank	Defense	Coach	Passing+	Rushing+	Turnovers	Pressure+	Defense+	PPGA vs. Avg
11	Michigan	Jim Harbaugh	129	124	73	138	144	15.7

Rank	Special Teams	Coach	Off. Special Teams+	PPG vs. Avg.	Def. Special Teams+	PPGA vs. Avg.	Special Teams+
44	Michigan	Jim Harbaugh	110	4.0	106	3.8	108

Up Next: vs. #118 UNLV

Game Watch Rating: 36

Win Probability: 93%

Projected Score: Michigan 44, UNLV 10

5. Nebraska #34, 119 THOR+

Rank	Offense	Coach	Passing+	Rushing+	Turnovers	Blocking+	Offense+	PPG vs. Avg.
23	Nebraska	Mike Riley	128	100	102	102	125	34.1

Rank	Defense	Coach	Passing+	Rushing+	Turnovers	Pressure+	Defense+	PPGA vs. Avg
53	Nebraska	Mike Riley	99	94	99	115	107	24.2

Rank	Special Teams	Coach	Off. Special Teams+	PPG vs. Avg.	Def. Special Teams+	PPGA vs. Avg.	Special Teams+
82	Nebraska	Mike Riley	96	3.9	96	3.8	96

Up Next: at #25 Miami (Florida)

Game Watch Rating: 137

Win Probability: 39%

Projected Score: Nebraska 25, Miami (Florida) 37

6. Illinois #35, 118 THOR+

Rank	Offense	Coach	Passing+	Rushing+	Turnovers	Blocking+	Offense+	PPG vs. Avg.
56	Illinois	Bill Cubit	102	80	78	74	104	28.6

Rank	Defense	Coach	Passing+	Rushing+	Turnovers	Pressure+	Defense+	PPGA vs. Avg
20	Illinois	Bill Cubit	138	110	122	106	135	17.8

Rank	Special Teams	Coach	Off. Special Teams+	PPG vs. Avg.	Def. Special Teams+	PPGA vs. Avg.	Special Teams+
36	Illinois	Bill Cubit	116	4.1	111	3.7	113

Up Next: at #39 North Carolina

Game Watch Rating: 162

Win Probability: 41%

Projected Score: Illinois 29, North Carolina 31

7. Iowa #47, 110 THOR+

Rank	Offense	Coach	Passing+	Rushing+	Turnovers	Blocking+	Offense+	PPG vs. Avg.
62	Iowa	Kirk Ferentz	131	98	110	94	100	27.6

Rank	Defense	Coach	Passing+	Rushing+	Turnovers	Pressure+	Defense+	PPGA vs. Avg
47	Iowa	Kirk Ferentz	108	116	63	131	117	21.9

Rank	Special Teams	Coach	Off. Special Teams+	PPG vs. Avg.	Def. Special Teams+	PPGA vs. Avg.	Special Teams+
27	Iowa	Kirk Ferentz	104	4.0	129	3.6	117

Up Next: vs. #55 Pittsburgh

Game Watch Rating: 139

Win Probability: 65%

Projected Score: Iowa 36, Pittsburgh 26

8. Northwestern #51, 109 THOR+

Rank	Offense	Coach	Passing+	Rushing+	Turnovers	Blocking+	Offense+	PPG vs. Avg.
112	Northwestern	Pat Fitzgerald	72	90	124	97	64	18.3

Rank	Defense	Coach	Passing+	Rushing+	Turnovers	Pressure+	Defense+	PPGA vs. Avg
1	Northwestern	Pat Fitzgerald	142	112	118	122	152	13.8

Rank	Special Teams	Coach	Off. Special Teams+	PPG vs. Avg.	Def. Special Teams+	PPGA vs. Avg.	Special Teams+
22	Northwestern	Pat Fitzgerald	136	4.3	108	3.7	122

Up Next: at #46 Duke

Game Watch Rating: 136

Win Probability: 35%

Projected Score: Northwestern 13, Duke 19

9. Minnesota #56, 106 THOR+

Rank	Offense	Coach	Passing+	Rushing+	Turnovers	Blocking+	Offense+	PPG vs. Avg.
83	Minnesota	Jerry Kill	110	95	90	136	87	24.3

Rank	Defense	Coach	Passing+	Rushing+	Turnovers	Pressure+	Defense+	PPGA vs. Avg
40	Minnesota	Jerry Kill	113	104	120	102	123	20.5

Rank	Special Teams	Coach	Off. Special Teams+	PPG vs. Avg.	Def. Special Teams+	PPGA vs. Avg.	Special Teams+
32	Minnesota	Jerry Kill	131	4.2	100	3.8	115

Up Next: vs. #123 Kent State

Game Watch Rating: 49

Win Probability: 92%

Projected Score: Minnesota 41, Kent State 13

10. Penn State #63, 99 THOR+

Rank	Offense	Coach	Passing+	Rushing+	Turnovers	Blocking+	Offense+	PPG vs. Avg.
104	Penn State	James Franklin	63	104	120	61	70	19.7

Rank	Defense	Coach	Passing+	Rushing+	Turnovers	Pressure+	Defense+	PPGA vs. Avg
30	Penn State	James Franklin	119	127	80	149	130	19.0

Rank	Special Teams	Coach	Off. Special Teams+	PPG vs. Avg.	Def. Special Teams+	PPGA vs. Avg.	Special Teams+
49	Penn State	James Franklin	99	3.9	114	3.7	106

Up Next: vs. #82 Rutgers

Game Watch Rating: 115

Win Probability: 71%

Projected Score: Penn State 33, Rutgers 20

11. Purdue #71, 93 THOR+

Rank	Offense	Coach	Passing+	Rushing+	Turnovers	Blocking+	Offense+	PPG vs. Avg.
87	Purdue	Darrell Hazell	75	90	69	99	86	23.9

Rank	Defense	Coach	Passing+	Rushing+	Turnovers	Pressure+	Defense+	PPGA vs. Avg
71	Purdue	Darrell Hazell	110	87	117	113	96	26.7

Rank	Special Teams	Coach	Off. Special Teams+	PPG vs. Avg.	Def. Special Teams+	PPGA vs. Avg.	Special Teams+
64	Purdue	Darrell Hazell	89	3.8	111	3.7	100

Up Next: vs. #49 Virginia Tech

Game Watch Rating: 149

Win Probability: 46%

Projected Score: Purdue 24, Virginia Tech 27

12. Maryland #80, 87 THOR+

Rank	Offense	Coach	Passing+	Rushing+	Turnovers	Blocking+	Offense+	PPG vs. Avg.
66	Maryland	Randy Edsall	60	107	60	90	99	27.2

Rank	Defense	Coach	Passing+	Rushing+	Turnovers	Pressure+	Defense+	PPGA vs. Avg
95	Maryland	Randy Edsall	96	100	59	82	69	33.0

Rank	Special Teams	Coach	Off. Special Teams+	PPG vs. Avg.	Def. Special Teams+	PPGA vs. Avg.	Special Teams+
1	Maryland	Randy Edsall	174	4.7	143	3.5	158

Up Next: vs. #79 South Florida

Game Watch Rating: 142

Win Probability: 61%

Projected Score: Maryland 32, South Florida 26

13. Rutgers #82, 87 THOR+

Rank	Offense	Coach	Passing+	Rushing+	Turnovers	Blocking+	Offense+	PPG vs. Avg.
67	Rutgers	Kyle Flood	97	90	74	82	98	27.1

Rank	Defense	Coach	Passing+	Rushing+	Turnovers	Pressure+	Defense+	PPGA vs. Avg
98	Rutgers	Kyle Flood	88	107	59	98	68	33.1

Rank	Special Teams	Coach	Off. Special Teams+	PPG vs. Avg.	Def. Special Teams+	PPGA vs. Avg.	Special Teams+
6	Rutgers	Kyle Flood	177	4.7	89	3.9	133

Up Next: at #63 Penn State

Game Watch Rating: 115

Win Probability: 29%

Projected Score: Rutgers 20, Penn State 33

14. Indiana #96, 78 THOR+

Rank	Offense	Coach	Passing+	Rushing+	Turnovers	Blocking+	Offense+	PPG vs. Avg.
78	Indiana	Kevin Wilson	97	90	127	111	92	25.5

Rank	Defense	Coach	Passing+	Rushing+	Turnovers	Pressure+	Defense+	PPGA vs. Avg
106	Indiana	Kevin Wilson	72	79	95	69	62	34.5

Rank	Special Teams	Coach	Off. Special Teams+	PPG vs. Avg.	Def. Special Teams+	PPGA vs. Avg.	Special Teams+
101	Indiana	Kevin Wilson	108	4.0	59	4.1	83

Up Next: vs. #66 Western Kentucky

Game Watch Rating: 152

Win Probability: 48%

Projected Score: Indiana 38, Western Kentucky 40