/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/47611697/usa-today-8908855.0.jpg)
Week 10 was a good week for Iowa. Not only did the Hawkeyes move to 9-0, but a Corey Clement-less Wisconsin won a close one and improved to 8-2, while Northwestern edged out Penn State to improve to 7-2. Those two teams continuing to win helps Iowa look better with their victories over both squads. But what was potentially the best outcome of week 10 was Nebraska pulling off the upset over Michigan State. Now, obviously, it doesn't matter if Iowa wins their next 4 games (yes, I am assuming Iowa makes the Big Ten Championship game) because they would control their own destiny and would be the only undefeated team left in the conference. But, if Iowa loses a game -- particularly to someone like Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship -- Michigan State's loss could help Iowa make the Rose Bowl.
Anyway, in addition to Iowa having a favorable Saturday, the Big Ten West also won 4 out of the 5 inter-division games played this weekend. Wisconsin and Iowa were obviously pretty decent favorites, but Northwestern and Nebraska were not. Minnesota didn't have enough offense to beat a J.T. Barrett-less Ohio State, but whatever. They played hard and didn't embarrass the division.
Now, let's look at some win projections, shall we?
Here are the overall season wins:
THOR+ Rank | B1G West Season Wins | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
16 | Iowa | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.3% | 13.7% | 43.8% | 41.2% |
29 | Wisconsin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 9.4% | 41.7% | 48.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
50 | Nebraska | 0.0% | 0.0% | 21.2% | 53.2% | 25.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
58 | Illinois | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 32.6% | 50.9% | 16.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
63 | Northwestern | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 14.5% | 42.0% | 35.0% | 8.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
79 | Minnesota | 0.0% | 0.0% | 25.3% | 47.6% | 22.8% | 4.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
84 | Purdue | 20.6% | 48.5% | 28.0% | 2.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
THOR+ Rank | B1G East Season Wins | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
11 | Michigan | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.2% | 19.7% | 46.0% | 31.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
12 | Ohio State | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4.8% | 30.2% | 47.1% | 17.9% |
36 | Michigan State | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 10.6% | 41.4% | 38.9% | 9.1% | 0.0% |
38 | Penn State | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 35.4% | 49.0% | 15.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
76 | Maryland | 10.8% | 38.5% | 38.5% | 12.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
87 | Indiana | 0.0% | 0.0% | 29.4% | 44.3% | 23.0% | 3.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
96 | Rutgers | 0.0% | 17.1% | 42.3% | 32.1% | 8.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
And here are the conference win projections:
THOR+ Rank | B1G West Conference Wins | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
16 | Iowa | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.3% | 13.7% | 43.8% | 41.2% |
29 | Wisconsin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 9.4% | 41.7% | 48.9% | 0.0% |
50 | Nebraska | 0.0% | 0.0% | 21.2% | 53.2% | 25.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
58 | Illinois | 0.0% | 0.0% | 32.6% | 50.9% | 16.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
63 | Northwestern | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 14.5% | 42.0% | 35.0% | 8.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
79 | Minnesota | 0.0% | 25.3% | 47.6% | 22.8% | 4.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
84 | Purdue | 0.0% | 20.6% | 48.5% | 28.0% | 2.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
THOR+ Rank | B1G East Conference Wins | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
11 | Michigan | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.2% | 19.7% | 46.0% | 31.1% | 0.0% |
12 | Ohio State | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4.8% | 30.2% | 47.1% | 17.9% |
36 | Michigan State | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 10.6% | 41.4% | 38.9% | 9.1% | 0.0% |
38 | Penn State | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 35.4% | 49.0% | 15.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
76 | Maryland | 10.8% | 38.5% | 38.5% | 12.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
87 | Indiana | 29.4% | 44.3% | 23.0% | 3.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
96 | Rutgers | 0.0% | 32.6% | 49.8% | 17.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
THOR+ now gives Iowa 85% odds to win at least 11 games this season, which would be enough to win the West. Additionally, we are also creeping toward the 50% mark on a 12-0 season. But, one game at a time, folks.
In the East, Michigan State isn't out of the running for the division title, but they will have to beat Ohio State in two weeks in order to play in Indy. Of course, that leaves Ohio State as the current favorite in the East, but it's not the most comfortable of margins. THOR+ currently has the Buckeyes beating the Spartans, but Michigan beating Ohio State in the final week of the season. That would give Michigan the division crown if they also beat Indiana and Penn State in the next two weeks. Now, if Michigan State beats Ohio State, but Ohio State beats Michigan and those are the only losses each team has until the end of the regular season, that would mean a three-way tie atop the East. That scenario, I believe, would be decided by the College Football Playoff Rankings the Tuesday before the championship game. Editor's note: Not true. I was misremembering the scenario in which MSU's only loss came to Ohio State, whose only loss came to Michigan. That's impossible now. The scenario crossed out would actually give Michigan State the East because of the tie-breaker over Ohio State.
So, for now, Iowa and Ohio State are the projected Big Ten Championship game, according to THOR+. If that were to happen this week, THOR+ would favor Ohio State (57%) 25-23. Boo. But at least Iowa might get the Rose Bowl. That's not a bad consolation prize.
Here are the mean, min, and max wins for each team:
THOR+ | B1G West | Mean Wins | Min. Wins | Max. Wins | Mean B1G Wins | Min B1G Wins | Max B1G Wins |
16 | Iowa | 11.2 | 9 | 12 | 7.2 | 5 | 8 |
29 | Wisconsin | 9.4 | 8 | 10 | 6.4 | 5 | 7 |
50 | Nebraska | 5.0 | 4 | 6 | 3.0 | 2 | 4 |
58 | Illinois | 5.8 | 5 | 7 | 2.8 | 2 | 4 |
63 | Northwestern | 8.4 | 7 | 10 | 4.4 | 3 | 6 |
79 | Minnesota | 5.1 | 4 | 7 | 2.1 | 1 | 4 |
84 | Purdue | 3.1 | 2 | 5 | 2.1 | 1 | 4 |
THOR+ | B1G East | Mean Wins | Min. Wins | Max. Wins | Mean B1G Wins | Min B1G Wins | Max B1G Wins |
11 | Michigan | 9.0 | 7 | 10 | 6.0 | 4 | 7 |
12 | Ohio State | 10.8 | 9 | 12 | 6.8 | 5 | 8 |
36 | Michigan State | 9.5 | 8 | 11 | 5.5 | 4 | 7 |
38 | Penn State | 7.8 | 7 | 9 | 4.8 | 4 | 6 |
76 | Maryland | 3.5 | 2 | 5 | 1.5 | 0 | 3 |
87 | Indiana | 5.0 | 4 | 7 | 1.0 | 0 | 3 |
96 | Rutgers | 4.3 | 3 | 6 | 1.9 | 1 | 3 |
Lastly, after missing on Northwestern/Penn State and Illinois/Purdue (but, getting Nebraska/Michigan State correct!), THOR+ is now 68.9% picking Big Ten West teams this season and 85.2% for teams from the East. That's a total of 77% for the entire Big Ten, which is a bit better than the 76% THOR+ is for all 128 FBS teams this season.
Big Ten West
Iowa
Date | Iowa | Team | Rank | Projected Win% |
9/5 | Home | Illinois State | FCS | W |
9/12 | Away | Iowa State | 81 | W |
9/19 | Home | Pittsburgh | 56 | W |
9/26 | Home | North Texas | 127 | W |
10/3 | Away | Wisconsin | 29 | W |
10/10 | Home | Illinois | 58 | W |
10/17 | Away | Northwestern | 63 | W |
10/31 | Home | Maryland | 76 | W |
11/7 | Away | Indiana | 87 | W |
11/14 | Home | Minnesota | 79 | 82% |
11/21 | Home | Purdue | 84 | 83% |
11/27 | Away | Nebraska | 50 | 59% |
THOR+ Record: 6-2 (75%)
Another week and another opponent that scares me. This season is fun, but it probably isn't good for my health.
Illinois
Date | Illinois | Team | Rank | Projected Win% |
9/5 | Home | Kent State | 113 | W |
9/12 | Home | W. Illinois | FCS | W |
9/19 | Away | North Carolina | 5 | L |
9/26 | Home | Middle Tennessee | 69 | W |
10/3 | Home | Nebraska | 50 | W |
10/10 | Away | Iowa | 16 | L |
10/24 | Home | Wisconsin | 29 | L |
10/31 | Away | Penn State | 38 | L |
11/7 | Away | Purdue | 84 | W |
11/14 | Home | Ohio State | 12 | 32% |
11/21 | Away | Minnesota | 79 | 52% |
11/28 | Neutral | Northwestern | 63 | 54% |
THOR+ Record: 6-2 (75%)
Hey, Illinois didn't lose to Purdue! In fact, they pretty much did what Penn State did to them last week! They still need one more win to become bowl-eligible, though.
Minnesota
Date | Minnesota | Team | Rank | Projected Win% |
9/3 | Home | TCU | 20 | L |
9/12 | Away | Colorado State | 83 | W |
9/19 | Home | Kent State | 113 | W |
9/26 | Home | Ohio | 100 | W |
10/3 | Away | Northwestern | 63 | L |
10/10 | Away | Purdue | 84 | W |
10/17 | Home | Nebraska | 50 | L |
10/31 | Home | Michigan | 11 | L |
11/7 | Away | Ohio State | 12 | L |
11/14 | Away | Iowa | 16 | 18% |
11/21 | Home | Illinois | 58 | 48% |
11/28 | Home | Wisconsin | 29 | 37% |
THOR+ Record: 7-2 (77.8%)
Minnesota's defense is likely good enough to keep them in the remaining three games, but it probably isn't good enough to get them 2 more wins and a bowl game.
Nebraska
Date | Nebraska | Team | Rank | Projected Win% |
9/5 | Home | BYU | 34 | L |
9/12 | Home | South Alabama | 114 | W |
9/19 | Away | Miami (Florida) | 54 | L |
9/26 | Home | Southern Mississippi | 75 | W |
10/3 | Away | Illinois | 58 | L |
10/10 | Home | Wisconsin | 29 | L |
10/17 | Away | Minnesota | 79 | W |
10/24 | Home | Northwestern | 63 | L |
10/31 | Away | Purdue | 84 | L |
11/7 | Home | Michigan State | 36 | W |
11/14 | Away | Rutgers | 96 | 63% |
11/28 | Home | Iowa | 16 | 41% |
THOR+ Record: 7-3 (70%)
We've all enjoyed the meltdown in Lincoln this season, but Nebraska just did Iowa a solid. Good job, corn brethren. Just don't pull that crap on Black Friday.
Northwestern
Date | Northwestern | Team | Rank | Projected Win% |
9/5 | Home | Stanford | 2 | W |
9/12 | Home | Eastern Illinois | FCS | W |
9/19 | Away | Duke | 52 | W |
9/26 | Home | Ball State | 110 | W |
10/3 | Home | Minnesota | 79 | W |
10/10 | Away | Michigan | 11 | L |
10/17 | Home | Iowa | 16 | L |
10/24 | Away | Nebraska | 50 | W |
11/7 | Home | Penn State | 38 | W |
11/14 | Home | Purdue | 84 | 63% |
11/21 | Away | Wisconsin | 29 | 28% |
11/28 | Neutral | Illinois | 58 | 46% |
THOR+ Record: 4-4 (50%)
Northwestern is one of the Big Ten teams THOR+ has struggled with this season. THOR+ continues to pick them to lose, but they continue to win. At this point, I'm pretty confident they are a better team than the model is giving them credit for.
Purdue
Date | Purdue | Team | Rank | Projected Win% |
9/6 | Away | Marshall | 64 | L |
9/12 | Home | Indiana State | FCS | W |
9/19 | Home | Virginia Tech | 62 | L |
9/26 | Home | Bowling Green | 32 | L |
10/3 | Away | Michigan State | 36 | L |
10/10 | Home | Minnesota | 79 | L |
10/17 | Away | Wisconsin | 29 | L |
10/31 | Home | Nebraska | 50 | W |
11/7 | Home | Illinois | 58 | L |
11/14 | Away | Northwestern | 63 | 37% |
11/21 | Away | Iowa | 16 | 17% |
11/28 | Home | Indiana | 87 | 59% |
THOR+ Record: 4-4 (50%)
Purdue is the other team THOR+ is struggling with, but on the opposite end of the spectrum. THOR+ keeps picking the Boilers for the upset, but it just isn't happening. I'm pretty sure they are worse than THOR+ thinks they are.
Wisconsin
Date | Wisconsin | Team | Rank | Projected Win% |
9/5 | Neutral | Alabama | 15 | L |
9/12 | Home | Miami (Ohio) | 118 | W |
9/19 | Home | Troy | 86 | W |
9/26 | Home | Hawai'i | 109 | W |
10/3 | Home | Iowa | 16 | L |
10/10 | Away | Nebraska | 50 | W |
10/17 | Home | Purdue | 84 | W |
10/24 | Away | Illinois | 58 | W |
10/31 | Home | Rutgers | 96 | W |
11/7 | Away | Maryland | 76 | W |
11/21 | Home | Northwestern | 63 | 72% |
11/28 | Away | Minnesota | 79 | 63% |
THOR+ Record: 8-2 (80%)
Assuming Iowa doesn't lose 2 of their next 3 games, I fully support the Badgers wining their final two games. Hopefully Corey Clement gets healthy fast.
Big Ten East
Indiana
Date | Indiana | Team | Rank | Projected Win% |
9/5 | Home | S. Illinois | FCS | W |
9/12 | Home | Florida International | 89 | W |
9/19 | Home | Western Kentucky | 42 | W |
9/26 | Away | Wake Forest | 92 | W |
10/3 | Home | Ohio State | 12 | L |
10/10 | Away | Penn State | 38 | L |
10/17 | Home | Rutgers | 96 | L |
10/24 | Away | Michigan State | 36 | L |
11/7 | Home | Iowa | 16 | L |
11/14 | Home | Michigan | 11 | 22% |
11/21 | Away | Maryland | 76 | 37% |
11/28 | Away | Purdue | 84 | 41% |
THOR+ Record: 5-3 (62.5%)
I'm curious to see how Indiana plays against Michigan's defense. They've played everyone tough this season, but continue to come up short against good teams (and Rutgers). They probably won't win, of course, which means they'll need to beat Maryland and Purdue to get to 6 wins. That's definitely doable, but Maryland has looked tougher lately and Purdue is a rivalry game. Basically, I'm saying anything could happen.
Maryland
Date | Maryland | Team | Rank | Projected Win% |
9/5 | Home | Richmond | FCS | W |
9/12 | Home | Bowling Green | 32 | L |
9/19 | Home | South Florida | 46 | W |
9/26 | Away | West Virginia | 35 | L |
10/3 | Home | Michigan | 11 | L |
10/10 | Away | Ohio State | 12 | L |
10/24 | Neutral | Penn State | 38 | L |
10/31 | Away | Iowa | 16 | L |
11/7 | Home | Wisconsin | 29 | L |
11/14 | Away | Michigan State | 36 | 30% |
11/21 | Home | Indiana | 87 | 63% |
11/28 | Away | Rutgers | 96 | 54% |
THOR+ Record: 7-1 (87.5%)
Maryland, on the other hand, is not going bowling this season. Their remaining motivation should be to not finish 0-8 in the Big Ten this season.
Michigan
Date | Michigan | Team | Rank | Projected Win% |
9/3 | Away | Utah | 22 | L |
9/12 | Home | Oregon State | 102 | W |
9/19 | Home | UNLV | 88 | W |
9/26 | Home | BYU | 34 | W |
10/3 | Away | Maryland | 76 | W |
10/10 | Home | Northwestern | 63 | W |
10/17 | Home | Michigan State | 36 | L |
10/31 | Away | Minnesota | 79 | W |
11/7 | Home | Rutgers | 96 | W |
11/14 | Away | Indiana | 87 | 78% |
11/21 | Away | Penn State | 38 | 62% |
11/28 | Home | Ohio State | 12 | 62% |
THOR+ Record: 8-1 (88.9%)
Michigan should send Nebraska a gift basket or something because the Wolverines are back in the race for the East.
Michigan State
Date | Michigan State | Team | Rank | Projected Win% |
9/4 | Away | Western Michigan | 77 | W |
9/12 | Home | Oregon | 49 | W |
9/19 | Home | Air Force | 66 | W |
9/26 | Home | Central Michigan | 70 | W |
10/3 | Home | Purdue | 84 | W |
10/10 | Away | Rutgers | 96 | W |
10/17 | Away | Michigan | 11 | W |
10/24 | Home | Indiana | 87 | W |
11/7 | Away | Nebraska | 50 | L |
11/14 | Home | Maryland | 76 | 70% |
11/21 | Away | Ohio State | 12 | 24% |
11/28 | Home | Penn State | 38 | 58% |
THOR+ Record: 8-1 (88.9%)
Since we don't have a meltdown in Nebraska to admire from a distance, let's check in on East Lansing:
Who would of thought the @NCAA Would be shaving points/games. Shame!
— Plaxico Burress (@plaxicoburress) November 8, 2015
Oh, Plaxico...
But it gets better, you guys. I won't embed here, but check out his Twitter timeline.* He really puts a lot of the Nebraska fans we've been making fun of this season to shame.
*In case he deletes those tweets before this gets posted, check out this.
Ohio State
Date | Ohio State | Team | Rank | Projected Win% |
9/7 | Away | Virginia Tech | 62 | W |
9/12 | Home | Hawai'i | 109 | W |
9/19 | Home | Northern Illinois | 53 | W |
9/26 | Home | Western Michigan | 77 | W |
10/3 | Away | Indiana | 87 | W |
10/10 | Home | Maryland | 76 | W |
10/17 | Home | Penn State | 38 | W |
10/24 | Away | Rutgers | 96 | W |
11/7 | Home | Minnesota | 79 | W |
11/14 | Away | Illinois | 58 | 68% |
11/21 | Home | Michigan State | 36 | 76% |
11/28 | Away | Michigan | 11 | 38% |
THOR+ Record: 9-0 (100%)
Ohio State is the current favorite in the East, but they are far from a sure thing. Of course, their outlook could improve next week, depending on how their offense looks with J.T. Barrett back under center.
Penn State
Date | Penn State | Team | Rank | Projected Win% |
9/5 | Away | Temple | 28 | L |
9/12 | Home | Buffalo | 97 | W |
9/19 | Home | Rutgers | 96 | W |
9/26 | Home | San Diego State | 65 | W |
10/3 | Home | Army | 101 | W |
10/10 | Home | Indiana | 87 | W |
10/17 | Away | Ohio State | 12 | L |
10/24 | Neutral | Maryland | 76 | W |
10/31 | Home | Illinois | 58 | W |
11/7 | Away | Northwestern | 63 | L |
11/21 | Home | Michigan | 11 | 38% |
11/28 | Away | Michigan State | 36 | 42% |
THOR+ Record: 9-1 (90%)
Penn State really could have used that victory over Northwestern because they are potentially looking at a 7-5 season now with both Michigan teams being the only games left on the schedule. I wouldn't necessarily be all that surprised to see them pull off an upset in one of these games. But I wouldn't be surprised to see them lose both either.
Rutgers
Date | Rutgers | Team | Rank | Projected Win% |
9/5 | Home | Norfolk State | FCS | W |
9/12 | Home | Washington State | 59 | L |
9/19 | Away | Penn State | 38 | L |
9/26 | Home | Kansas | 120 | W |
10/10 | Home | Michigan State | 36 | L |
10/17 | Away | Indiana | 87 | W |
10/24 | Home | Ohio State | 12 | L |
10/31 | Away | Wisconsin | 29 | L |
11/7 | Away | Michigan | 11 | L |
11/14 | Home | Nebraska | 50 | 37% |
11/21 | Away | Army | 101 | 45% |
11/28 | Home | Maryland | 76 | 46% |
THOR+ Record: 6-2 (75%)
THOR+ currently has Army favored slightly against Rutgers? That's non-Leonte Carroo Rutgers, yes. With Carroo back, though, they should win. Even without him, I would hope they could beat Army. I mean, it's not like they're playing Navy. They would definitely lose that game.