BIG TEN WIN PROJECTIONS: POST-WEEK 10

Week 10 was a good week for Iowa. Not only did the Hawkeyes move to 9-0, but a Corey Clement-less Wisconsin won a close one and improved to 8-2, while Northwestern edged out Penn State to improve to 7-2. Those two teams continuing to win helps Iowa look better with their victories over both squads. But what was potentially the best outcome of week 10 was Nebraska pulling off the upset over Michigan State. Now, obviously, it doesn't matter if Iowa wins their next 4 games (yes, I am assuming Iowa makes the Big Ten Championship game) because they would control their own destiny and would be the only undefeated team left in the conference. But, if Iowa loses a game -- particularly to someone like Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship -- Michigan State's loss could help Iowa make the Rose Bowl.

Anyway, in addition to Iowa having a favorable Saturday, the Big Ten West also won 4 out of the 5 inter-division games played this weekend. Wisconsin and Iowa were obviously pretty decent favorites, but Northwestern and Nebraska were not. Minnesota didn't have enough offense to beat a J.T. Barrett-less Ohio State, but whatever. They played hard and didn't embarrass the division.

Now, let's look at some win projections, shall we?

Here are the overall season wins:

THOR+ Rank	B1G West Season Wins	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
16	Iowa	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	1.3%	13.7%	43.8%	41.2%
29	Wisconsin	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	9.4%	41.7%	48.9%	0.0%	0.0%
50	Nebraska	0.0%	0.0%	21.2%	53.2%	25.6%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
58	Illinois	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	32.6%	50.9%	16.5%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
63	Northwestern	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	14.5%	42.0%	35.0%	8.5%	0.0%	0.0%
79	Minnesota	0.0%	0.0%	25.3%	47.6%	22.8%	4.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
84	Purdue	20.6%	48.5%	28.0%	2.9%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
THOR+ Rank	B1G East Season Wins	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
11	Michigan	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	3.2%	19.7%	46.0%	31.1%	0.0%	0.0%
12	Ohio State	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	4.8%	30.2%	47.1%	17.9%
36	Michigan State	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	10.6%	41.4%	38.9%	9.1%	0.0%
38	Penn State	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	35.4%	49.0%	15.6%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
76	Maryland	10.8%	38.5%	38.5%	12.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
87	Indiana	0.0%	0.0%	29.4%	44.3%	23.0%	3.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
96	Rutgers	0.0%	17.1%	42.3%	32.1%	8.5%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

And here are the conference win projections:

THOR+ Rank	B1G West Conference Wins	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8
16	Iowa	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	1.3%	13.7%	43.8%	41.2%
29	Wisconsin	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	9.4%	41.7%	48.9%	0.0%
50	Nebraska	0.0%	0.0%	21.2%	53.2%	25.6%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
58	Illinois	0.0%	0.0%	32.6%	50.9%	16.5%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
63	Northwestern	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	14.5%	42.0%	35.0%	8.5%	0.0%	0.0%
79	Minnesota	0.0%	25.3%	47.6%	22.8%	4.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
84	Purdue	0.0%	20.6%	48.5%	28.0%	2.9%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
THOR+ Rank	B1G East Conference Wins	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8
11	Michigan	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	3.2%	19.7%	46.0%	31.1%	0.0%
12	Ohio State	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	4.8%	30.2%	47.1%	17.9%
36	Michigan State	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	10.6%	41.4%	38.9%	9.1%	0.0%
38	Penn State	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	35.4%	49.0%	15.6%	0.0%	0.0%
76	Maryland	10.8%	38.5%	38.5%	12.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
87	Indiana	29.4%	44.3%	23.0%	3.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
96	Rutgers	0.0%	32.6%	49.8%	17.6%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

THOR+ now gives Iowa 85% odds to win at least 11 games this season, which would be enough to win the West. Additionally, we are also creeping toward the 50% mark on a 12-0 season. But, one game at a time, folks.

In the East, Michigan State isn't out of the running for the division title, but they will have to beat Ohio State in two weeks in order to play in Indy. Of course, that leaves Ohio State as the current favorite in the East, but it's not the most comfortable of margins. THOR+ currently has the Buckeyes beating the Spartans, but Michigan beating Ohio State in the final week of the season. That would give Michigan the division crown if they also beat Indiana and Penn State in the next two weeks. Now, if Michigan State beats Ohio State, but Ohio State beats Michigan and those are the only losses each team has until the end of the regular season, that would mean a three-way tie atop the East. That scenario, I believe, would be decided by the College Football Playoff Rankings the Tuesday before the championship game. Editor's note: Not true. I was misremembering the scenario in which MSU's only loss came to Ohio State, whose only loss came to Michigan. That's impossible now. The scenario crossed out would actually give Michigan State the East because of the tie-breaker over Ohio State.

So, for now, Iowa and Ohio State are the projected Big Ten Championship game, according to THOR+. If that were to happen this week, THOR+ would favor Ohio State (57%) 25-23. Boo. But at least Iowa might get the Rose Bowl. That's not a bad consolation prize.

Here are the mean, min, and max wins for each team:

THOR+	B1G West	Mean Wins	Min. Wins	Max. Wins	Mean B1G Wins	Min B1G Wins	Max B1G Wins
16	Iowa	11.2	9	12	7.2	5	8
29	Wisconsin	9.4	8	10	6.4	5	7
50	Nebraska	5.0	4	6	3.0	2	4
58	Illinois	5.8	5	7	2.8	2	4
63	Northwestern	8.4	7	10	4.4	3	6
79	Minnesota	5.1	4	7	2.1	1	4
84	Purdue	3.1	2	5	2.1	1	4
THOR+	B1G East	Mean Wins	Min. Wins	Max. Wins	Mean B1G Wins	Min B1G Wins	Max B1G Wins
11	Michigan	9.0	7	10	6.0	4	7
12	Ohio State	10.8	9	12	6.8	5	8
36	Michigan State	9.5	8	11	5.5	4	7
38	Penn State	7.8	7	9	4.8	4	6
76	Maryland	3.5	2	5	1.5	0	3
87	Indiana	5.0	4	7	1.0	0	3
96	Rutgers	4.3	3	6	1.9	1	3

Lastly, after missing on Northwestern/Penn State and Illinois/Purdue (but, getting Nebraska/Michigan State correct!), THOR+ is now 68.9% picking Big Ten West teams this season and 85.2% for teams from the East. That's a total of 77% for the entire Big Ten, which is a bit better than the 76% THOR+ is for all 128 FBS teams this season.

Big Ten West

Iowa

Date	Iowa	Team	Rank	Projected Win%
9/5	Home	Illinois State	FCS	W
9/12	Away	Iowa State	81	W
9/19	Home	Pittsburgh	56	W
9/26	Home	North Texas	127	W
10/3	Away	Wisconsin	29	W
10/10	Home	Illinois	58	W
10/17	Away	Northwestern	63	W
10/31	Home	Maryland	76	W
11/7	Away	Indiana	87	W
11/14	Home	Minnesota	79	82%
11/21	Home	Purdue	84	83%
11/27	Away	Nebraska	50	59%

THOR+ Record: 6-2 (75%)

Another week and another opponent that scares me. This season is fun, but it probably isn't good for my health.

Illinois

Date	Illinois	Team	Rank	Projected Win%
9/5	Home	Kent State	113	W
9/12	Home	W. Illinois	FCS	W
9/19	Away	North Carolina	5	L
9/26	Home	Middle Tennessee	69	W
10/3	Home	Nebraska	50	W
10/10	Away	Iowa	16	L
10/24	Home	Wisconsin	29	L
10/31	Away	Penn State	38	L
11/7	Away	Purdue	84	W
11/14	Home	Ohio State	12	32%
11/21	Away	Minnesota	79	52%
11/28	Neutral	Northwestern	63	54%

THOR+ Record: 6-2 (75%)

Hey, Illinois didn't lose to Purdue! In fact, they pretty much did what Penn State did to them last week! They still need one more win to become bowl-eligible, though.

Minnesota

Date	Minnesota	Team	Rank	Projected Win%
9/3	Home	TCU	20	L
9/12	Away	Colorado State	83	W
9/19	Home	Kent State	113	W
9/26	Home	Ohio	100	W
10/3	Away	Northwestern	63	L
10/10	Away	Purdue	84	W
10/17	Home	Nebraska	50	L
10/31	Home	Michigan	11	L
11/7	Away	Ohio State	12	L
11/14	Away	Iowa	16	18%
11/21	Home	Illinois	58	48%
11/28	Home	Wisconsin	29	37%

THOR+ Record: 7-2 (77.8%)

Minnesota's defense is likely good enough to keep them in the remaining three games, but it probably isn't good enough to get them 2 more wins and a bowl game.

Nebraska

Date	Nebraska	Team	Rank	Projected Win%
9/5	Home	BYU	34	L
9/12	Home	South Alabama	114	W
9/19	Away	Miami (Florida)	54	L
9/26	Home	Southern Mississippi	75	W
10/3	Away	Illinois	58	L
10/10	Home	Wisconsin	29	L
10/17	Away	Minnesota	79	W
10/24	Home	Northwestern	63	L
10/31	Away	Purdue	84	L
11/7	Home	Michigan State	36	W
11/14	Away	Rutgers	96	63%
11/28	Home	Iowa	16	41%

THOR+ Record: 7-3 (70%)

We've all enjoyed the meltdown in Lincoln this season, but Nebraska just did Iowa a solid. Good job, corn brethren. Just don't pull that crap on Black Friday.

Northwestern

Date	Northwestern	Team	Rank	Projected Win%
9/5	Home	Stanford	2	W
9/12	Home	Eastern Illinois	FCS	W
9/19	Away	Duke	52	W
9/26	Home	Ball State	110	W
10/3	Home	Minnesota	79	W
10/10	Away	Michigan	11	L
10/17	Home	Iowa	16	L
10/24	Away	Nebraska	50	W
11/7	Home	Penn State	38	W
11/14	Home	Purdue	84	63%
11/21	Away	Wisconsin	29	28%
11/28	Neutral	Illinois	58	46%

THOR+ Record: 4-4 (50%)

Northwestern is one of the Big Ten teams THOR+ has struggled with this season. THOR+ continues to pick them to lose, but they continue to win. At this point, I'm pretty confident they are a better team than the model is giving them credit for.

Purdue

Date	Purdue	Team	Rank	Projected Win%
9/6	Away	Marshall	64	L
9/12	Home	Indiana State	FCS	W
9/19	Home	Virginia Tech	62	L
9/26	Home	Bowling Green	32	L
10/3	Away	Michigan State	36	L
10/10	Home	Minnesota	79	L
10/17	Away	Wisconsin	29	L
10/31	Home	Nebraska	50	W
11/7	Home	Illinois	58	L
11/14	Away	Northwestern	63	37%
11/21	Away	Iowa	16	17%
11/28	Home	Indiana	87	59%

THOR+ Record: 4-4 (50%)

Purdue is the other team THOR+ is struggling with, but on the opposite end of the spectrum. THOR+ keeps picking the Boilers for the upset, but it just isn't happening. I'm pretty sure they are worse than THOR+ thinks they are.

Wisconsin

Date	Wisconsin	Team	Rank	Projected Win%
9/5	Neutral	Alabama	15	L
9/12	Home	Miami (Ohio)	118	W
9/19	Home	Troy	86	W
9/26	Home	Hawai'i	109	W
10/3	Home	Iowa	16	L
10/10	Away	Nebraska	50	W
10/17	Home	Purdue	84	W
10/24	Away	Illinois	58	W
10/31	Home	Rutgers	96	W
11/7	Away	Maryland	76	W
11/21	Home	Northwestern	63	72%
11/28	Away	Minnesota	79	63%

THOR+ Record: 8-2 (80%)

Assuming Iowa doesn't lose 2 of their next 3 games, I fully support the Badgers wining their final two games. Hopefully Corey Clement gets healthy fast.

Big Ten East

Indiana

Date	Indiana	Team	Rank	Projected Win%
9/5	Home	S. Illinois	FCS	W
9/12	Home	Florida International	89	W
9/19	Home	Western Kentucky	42	W
9/26	Away	Wake Forest	92	W
10/3	Home	Ohio State	12	L
10/10	Away	Penn State	38	L
10/17	Home	Rutgers	96	L
10/24	Away	Michigan State	36	L
11/7	Home	Iowa	16	L
11/14	Home	Michigan	11	22%
11/21	Away	Maryland	76	37%
11/28	Away	Purdue	84	41%

THOR+ Record: 5-3 (62.5%)

I'm curious to see how Indiana plays against Michigan's defense. They've played everyone tough this season, but continue to come up short against good teams (and Rutgers). They probably won't win, of course, which means they'll need to beat Maryland and Purdue to get to 6 wins. That's definitely doable, but Maryland has looked tougher lately and Purdue is a rivalry game. Basically, I'm saying anything could happen.

Maryland

Date	Maryland	Team	Rank	Projected Win%
9/5	Home	Richmond	FCS	W
9/12	Home	Bowling Green	32	L
9/19	Home	South Florida	46	W
9/26	Away	West Virginia	35	L
10/3	Home	Michigan	11	L
10/10	Away	Ohio State	12	L
10/24	Neutral	Penn State	38	L
10/31	Away	Iowa	16	L
11/7	Home	Wisconsin	29	L
11/14	Away	Michigan State	36	30%
11/21	Home	Indiana	87	63%
11/28	Away	Rutgers	96	54%

THOR+ Record: 7-1 (87.5%)

Maryland, on the other hand, is not going bowling this season. Their remaining motivation should be to not finish 0-8 in the Big Ten this season.

Michigan

Date	Michigan	Team	Rank	Projected Win%
9/3	Away	Utah	22	L
9/12	Home	Oregon State	102	W
9/19	Home	UNLV	88	W
9/26	Home	BYU	34	W
10/3	Away	Maryland	76	W
10/10	Home	Northwestern	63	W
10/17	Home	Michigan State	36	L
10/31	Away	Minnesota	79	W
11/7	Home	Rutgers	96	W
11/14	Away	Indiana	87	78%
11/21	Away	Penn State	38	62%
11/28	Home	Ohio State	12	62%

THOR+ Record: 8-1 (88.9%)

Michigan should send Nebraska a gift basket or something because the Wolverines are back in the race for the East.

Michigan State

Date	Michigan State	Team	Rank	Projected Win%
9/4	Away	Western Michigan	77	W
9/12	Home	Oregon	49	W
9/19	Home	Air Force	66	W
9/26	Home	Central Michigan	70	W
10/3	Home	Purdue	84	W
10/10	Away	Rutgers	96	W
10/17	Away	Michigan	11	W
10/24	Home	Indiana	87	W
11/7	Away	Nebraska	50	L
11/14	Home	Maryland	76	70%
11/21	Away	Ohio State	12	24%
11/28	Home	Penn State	38	58%

THOR+ Record: 8-1 (88.9%)

Since we don't have a meltdown in Nebraska to admire from a distance, let's check in on East Lansing:

Who would of thought the @NCAA Would be shaving points/games. Shame!

— Plaxico Burress (@plaxicoburress) November 8, 2015

Oh, Plaxico...

But it gets better, you guys. I won't embed here, but check out his Twitter timeline.* He really puts a lot of the Nebraska fans we've been making fun of this season to shame.

*In case he deletes those tweets before this gets posted, check out this.

Ohio State

Date	Ohio State	Team	Rank	Projected Win%
9/7	Away	Virginia Tech	62	W
9/12	Home	Hawai'i	109	W
9/19	Home	Northern Illinois	53	W
9/26	Home	Western Michigan	77	W
10/3	Away	Indiana	87	W
10/10	Home	Maryland	76	W
10/17	Home	Penn State	38	W
10/24	Away	Rutgers	96	W
11/7	Home	Minnesota	79	W
11/14	Away	Illinois	58	68%
11/21	Home	Michigan State	36	76%
11/28	Away	Michigan	11	38%

THOR+ Record: 9-0 (100%)

Ohio State is the current favorite in the East, but they are far from a sure thing. Of course, their outlook could improve next week, depending on how their offense looks with J.T. Barrett back under center.

Penn State

Date	Penn State	Team	Rank	Projected Win%
9/5	Away	Temple	28	L
9/12	Home	Buffalo	97	W
9/19	Home	Rutgers	96	W
9/26	Home	San Diego State	65	W
10/3	Home	Army	101	W
10/10	Home	Indiana	87	W
10/17	Away	Ohio State	12	L
10/24	Neutral	Maryland	76	W
10/31	Home	Illinois	58	W
11/7	Away	Northwestern	63	L
11/21	Home	Michigan	11	38%
11/28	Away	Michigan State	36	42%

THOR+ Record: 9-1 (90%)

Penn State really could have used that victory over Northwestern because they are potentially looking at a 7-5 season now with both Michigan teams being the only games left on the schedule. I wouldn't necessarily be all that surprised to see them pull off an upset in one of these games. But I wouldn't be surprised to see them lose both either.

Rutgers

Date	Rutgers	Team	Rank	Projected Win%
9/5	Home	Norfolk State	FCS	W
9/12	Home	Washington State	59	L
9/19	Away	Penn State	38	L
9/26	Home	Kansas	120	W
10/10	Home	Michigan State	36	L
10/17	Away	Indiana	87	W
10/24	Home	Ohio State	12	L
10/31	Away	Wisconsin	29	L
11/7	Away	Michigan	11	L
11/14	Home	Nebraska	50	37%
11/21	Away	Army	101	45%
11/28	Home	Maryland	76	46%

THOR+ Record: 6-2 (75%)

THOR+ currently has Army favored slightly against Rutgers? That's non-Leonte Carroo Rutgers, yes. With Carroo back, though, they should win. Even without him, I would hope they could beat Army. I mean, it's not like they're playing Navy. They would definitely lose that game.