2015 BIG TEN WIN PROJECTIONS: POST-WEEK 9

Week 9 looked about as boring as possible on paper, and it kind of was. However, there were a few games that ended up being thoroughly enjoyable to watch. Iowa, Wisconsin, and Penn State all recorded blowouts -- the latter being quite the surprise -- but the day was saved by Minnesota coming extremely close to pulling off the upset over Michigan and Purdue LOL'ing Nebraska. And, yes, I am calling what Iowa did to Maryland a blowout. That game, while not exactly pretty in the second half, was never competitive. But I did enjoy watching it.

Anyway, with week 9 in the books, let's take a look at the win projections. First, here are the overall season ones:

THOR+ Rank	B1G West Season Wins	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
18	Iowa	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	3.6%	21.0%	42.7%	32.6%
26	Wisconsin	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	4.3%	22.7%	44.2%	28.8%	0.0%	0.0%
51	Nebraska	0.0%	10.8%	34.8%	41.1%	13.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
61	Northwestern	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	7.2%	28.2%	36.2%	24.1%	4.3%	0.0%	0.0%
65	Illinois	0.0%	0.0%	21.1%	45.9%	26.8%	6.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
70	Purdue	6.0%	30.0%	41.5%	20.1%	2.4%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
84	Minnesota	0.0%	0.0%	21.0%	46.8%	26.4%	5.7%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
THOR+ Rank	B1G East Season Wins	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
9	Ohio State	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.3%	6.4%	28.4%	44.3%	20.6%
15	Michigan	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.7%	9.1%	28.2%	42.6%	19.4%	0.0%	0.0%
39	Michigan State	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	5.9%	23.1%	40.6%	26.9%	3.5%
43	Penn State	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	16.6%	44.6%	29.9%	8.9%	0.0%	0.0%
78	Maryland	7.0%	32.6%	38.1%	19.3%	3.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
90	Indiana	0.0%	0.0%	19.8%	44.2%	26.9%	8.6%	0.5%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
93	Rutgers	0.0%	15.5%	37.8%	33.7%	12.6%	0.4%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

And here are the conference ones:

THOR+ Rank	B1G West Conference Wins	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8
18	Iowa	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	3.6%	21.0%	42.7%	32.6%
26	Wisconsin	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	4.3%	22.7%	44.2%	28.8%	0.0%
51	Nebraska	0.0%	10.8%	34.8%	41.1%	13.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
61	Northwestern	0.0%	0.0%	7.2%	28.2%	36.2%	24.1%	4.3%	0.0%	0.0%
65	Illinois	0.0%	21.1%	45.9%	26.8%	6.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
70	Purdue	0.0%	6.0%	30.0%	41.5%	20.1%	2.4%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
84	Minnesota	0.0%	21.0%	46.8%	26.4%	5.7%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
THOR+ Rank	B1G East Conference Wins	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8
9	Ohio State	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.3%	6.4%	28.4%	44.3%	20.6%
15	Michigan	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.7%	9.1%	28.2%	42.6%	19.4%	0.0%
39	Michigan State	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	5.9%	23.1%	40.6%	26.9%	3.5%
43	Penn State	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	16.6%	44.6%	29.9%	8.9%	0.0%
78	Maryland	7.0%	32.6%	38.1%	19.3%	3.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
90	Indiana	19.8%	44.2%	26.9%	8.6%	0.5%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
93	Rutgers	0.0%	27.1%	47.4%	24.1%	1.4%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Nothing really changed at the top of either division. Iowa and Ohio State are still projected to win the West and the East, and face off in the Big Ten Championship game. If that were to happen today, THOR+ would be calling for an Ohio State (58%) victory by a projected score of 24-23. Boo.

But, while the tops of each division didn't really change, there was some movement toward the middle and bottom of the conference. The big winners from week 9 were Penn State and Purdue. The Nittany Lions saw their mean wins go from 7.7 to 8.3, while Purdue went from 3 to 3.8. Meanwhile, the biggest losers were Nebraska and Illinois. (Duh.) Nebraska's loss to Purdue changed their mean wins from 5.2 to 4.6, while Illinois dropped from 5.9 to 5.2.

Nebraska and Illinois derping it up in week 9 also made it a real possibility that the Big Ten West may only have 3 bowl eligible teams when the regular season is all said and done.

THOR+	B1G West	Mean Wins	Min. Wins	Max. Wins	Mean B1G Wins	Min B1G Wins	Max B1G Wins
18	Iowa	11.0	8	12	7.0	4	8
26	Wisconsin	9.0	7	10	6.0	4	7
51	Nebraska	4.6	3	6	2.6	1	4
61	Northwestern	7.9	6	10	3.9	2	6
65	Illinois	5.2	4	7	2.2	1	4
70	Purdue	3.8	2	6	2.8	1	5
84	Minnesota	5.2	4	8	2.2	1	5
THOR+	B1G East	Mean Wins	Min. Wins	Max. Wins	Mean B1G Wins	Min B1G Wins	Max B1G Wins
9	Ohio State	10.8	8	12	6.8	4	8
15	Michigan	8.7	6	10	5.7	3	7
39	Michigan State	10.0	8	12	6.0	4	8
43	Penn State	8.3	7	10	5.3	4	7
78	Maryland	3.8	2	6	1.8	0	4
90	Indiana	5.3	4	8	1.3	0	4
93	Rutgers	4.4	3	7	2.0	1	4

As for how THOR+ did in week 9, well, it only missed on the Nebraska and Purdue game. That now leaves THOR+ 46-8 (85.2%) in the Big Ten East this season and 38-16 (70.4%) in the West. Combined, that's 77.8% for the entire Big Ten conference and just a smidge better than the 76.3% that THOR+ has recorded for all FBS games this season.

Big Ten West

Iowa

Date	Iowa	Team	Rank	Projected Win%
9/5	Home	Illinois State	FCS	W
9/12	Away	Iowa State	67	W
9/19	Home	Pittsburgh	47	W
9/26	Home	North Texas	126	W
10/3	Away	Wisconsin	26	W
10/10	Home	Illinois	65	W
10/17	Away	Northwestern	61	W
10/31	Home	Maryland	78	W
11/7	Away	Indiana	90	74%
11/14	Home	Minnesota	84	83%
11/21	Home	Purdue	70	80%
11/27	Away	Nebraska	51	61%

THOR+ Record: 5-2 (71.4%)

Another week, another win. I am trying hard not to get my hopes up over the remaining games because college football is a crazy, crazy game where anything can happen. I know coaches say it all the time to their teams, but I'm also finding that I need to say it to myself: One game at a time.

Illinois

Date	Illinois	Team	Rank	Projected Win%
9/5	Home	Kent State	115	W
9/12	Home	W. Illinois	FCS	W
9/19	Away	North Carolina	13	L
9/26	Home	Middle Tennessee	74	W
10/3	Home	Nebraska	51	W
10/10	Away	Iowa	18	L
10/24	Home	Wisconsin	26	L
10/31	Away	Penn State	43	L
11/7	Away	Purdue	70	44%
11/14	Home	Ohio State	9	27%
11/21	Away	Minnesota	84	49%
11/28	Neutral	Northwestern	61	48%

THOR+ Record: 6-1 (85.7%)

Illinois was my preseason pick to start fast and then fall on their face hard to end the season. They had me fooled into thinking this prediction would be wrong, but now they are doing their best to prove it right after all.

Minnesota

Date	Minnesota	Team	Rank	Projected Win%
9/3	Home	TCU	12	L
9/12	Away	Colorado State	83	W
9/19	Home	Kent State	115	W
9/26	Home	Ohio	86	W
10/3	Away	Northwestern	61	L
10/10	Away	Purdue	70	W
10/17	Home	Nebraska	51	L
10/31	Home	Michigan	15	L
11/7	Away	Ohio State	9	13%
11/14	Away	Iowa	18	17%
11/21	Home	Illinois	65	51%
11/28	Home	Wisconsin	26	35%

THOR+ Record: 6-2 (75%)

Minnesota played an inspired game for Jerry Kill, but some horrible end-of-game play calling and clock management kept them from pulling the upset. They are now 4-4 and not guaranteed to reach a bowl game this season. Just to get to 6 wins, they are going to need to beat Illinois and upset one of Ohio State, Iowa, or Wisconsin. It's not impossible, but the odds are not favorable, either.

Nebraska

Date	Nebraska	Team	Rank	Projected Win%
9/5	Home	BYU	35	L
9/12	Home	South Alabama	116	W
9/19	Away	Miami (Florida)	54	L
9/26	Home	Southern Mississippi	72	W
10/3	Away	Illinois	65	L
10/10	Home	Wisconsin	26	L
10/17	Away	Minnesota	84	W
10/24	Home	Northwestern	61	L
10/31	Away	Purdue	70	L
11/7	Home	Michigan State	39	52%
11/14	Away	Rutgers	93	60%
11/28	Home	Iowa	18	39%

THOR+ Record: 6-3 (66.7%)

I've dialed it back the past couple of weeks, but LOLOLOLOL Nebraska.

Also, yes, the Huskers are slightly favored at home against Michigan State. Do I think they will win? No. But Michigan State hasn't exactly blown anyone out this year, either. So a coin flip projection may not be all that crazy.

Northwestern

Date	Northwestern	Team	Rank	Projected Win%
9/5	Home	Stanford	5	W
9/12	Home	Eastern Illinois	FCS	W
9/19	Away	Duke	34	W
9/26	Home	Ball State	108	W
10/3	Home	Minnesota	84	W
10/10	Away	Michigan	15	L
10/17	Home	Iowa	18	L
10/24	Away	Nebraska	51	W
11/7	Home	Penn State	43	49%
11/14	Home	Purdue	70	60%
11/21	Away	Wisconsin	26	28%
11/28	Neutral	Illinois	65	52%

THOR+ Record: 4-3 (57.1%)

Northwestern comes off a bye and gets ready to play what looks like it should be an ugly game against Penn State. Their win projections right now are spread quite close to even in the range of 7-9 wins. But if they come away from this one victorious, their mean wins should move closer to 9 than 8.

Purdue

Date	Purdue	Team	Rank	Projected Win%
9/6	Away	Marshall	59	L
9/12	Home	Indiana State	FCS	W
9/19	Home	Virginia Tech	57	L
9/26	Home	Bowling Green	42	L
10/3	Away	Michigan State	39	L
10/10	Home	Minnesota	84	L
10/17	Away	Wisconsin	26	L
10/31	Home	Nebraska	51	W
11/7	Home	Illinois	65	56%
11/14	Away	Northwestern	61	40%
11/21	Away	Iowa	18	20%
11/28	Home	Indiana	90	65%

THOR+ Record: 4-3 (57.1%)

Last week, I asked if Purdue would beat an FBS team this year? Purdue responded by earning their first Big Ten home win since 2012. Not only that, the win over Nebraska was also Darrell Hazell's first home Big Ten win as Purdue's head coach, and just his second Big Ten win, overall, in 20 tries. And THOR+ actually thinks they have a good chance to win at least one more before season's end. Feel the excitement.

Wisconsin

Date	Wisconsin	Team	Rank	Projected Win%
9/5	Neutral	Alabama	17	L
9/12	Home	Miami (Ohio)	120	W
9/19	Home	Troy	87	W
9/26	Home	Hawai'i	110	W
10/3	Home	Iowa	18	L
10/10	Away	Nebraska	51	W
10/17	Home	Purdue	70	W
10/24	Away	Illinois	65	W
10/31	Home	Rutgers	93	W
11/7	Away	Maryland	78	63%
11/21	Home	Northwestern	61	72%
11/28	Away	Minnesota	84	65%

THOR+ Record: 7-2 (77.8%)

Corey Clement being healthy is huge upgrade for the Badgers' running game. Him being healthy makes me feel more confident that Wisconsin could win out, be ranked again, and provide Iowa with a huge quality win.

Big Ten East

Indiana

Date	Indiana	Team	Rank	Projected Win%
9/5	Home	S. Illinois	FCS	W
9/12	Home	Florida International	88	W
9/19	Home	Western Kentucky	46	W
9/26	Away	Wake Forest	94	W
10/3	Home	Ohio State	9	L
10/10	Away	Penn State	43	L
10/17	Home	Rutgers	93	L
10/24	Away	Michigan State	39	L
11/7	Home	Iowa	18	26%
11/14	Home	Michigan	15	24%
11/21	Away	Maryland	78	38%
11/28	Away	Purdue	70	35%

THOR+ Record: 4-3 (57.1%)

Who is more likely to not win a Big Ten game this year? Indiana or Maryland? THOR+ thinks Indiana, but I'm not so sure.

Maryland

Date	Maryland	Team	Rank	Projected Win%
9/5	Home	Richmond	FCS	W
9/12	Home	Bowling Green	42	L
9/19	Home	South Florida	40	W
9/26	Away	West Virginia	37	L
10/3	Home	Michigan	15	L
10/10	Away	Ohio State	9	L
10/24	Neutral	Penn State	43	L
10/31	Away	Iowa	18	L
11/7	Home	Wisconsin	26	37%
11/14	Away	Michigan State	39	28%
11/21	Home	Indiana	90	62%
11/28	Away	Rutgers	93	50%

THOR+ Record: 6-1 (85.7%)

But, seriously, one of these teams has to get a Big Ten win because they play each other on November 21st.

Michigan

Date	Michigan	Team	Rank	Projected Win%
9/3	Away	Utah	22	L
9/12	Home	Oregon State	101	W
9/19	Home	UNLV	89	W
9/26	Home	BYU	35	W
10/3	Away	Maryland	78	W
10/10	Home	Northwestern	61	W
10/17	Home	Michigan State	39	L
10/31	Away	Minnesota	84	W
11/7	Home	Rutgers	93	87%
11/14	Away	Indiana	90	76%
11/21	Away	Penn State	43	59%
11/28	Home	Ohio State	9	55%

THOR+ Record: 7-1 (87.5%)

Michigan's outside shot at winning the Big Ten East is still alive thanks to Minnesota's late-game incompetence. Are they now cosmically even for the whole punt debacle against Michigan State?

Michigan State

Date	Michigan State	Team	Rank	Projected Win%
9/4	Away	Western Michigan	79	W
9/12	Home	Oregon	50	W
9/19	Home	Air Force	71	W
9/26	Home	Central Michigan	73	W
10/3	Home	Purdue	70	W
10/10	Away	Rutgers	93	W
10/17	Away	Michigan	15	W
10/24	Home	Indiana	90	W
11/7	Away	Nebraska	51	48%
11/14	Home	Maryland	78	72%
11/21	Away	Ohio State	9	22%
11/28	Home	Penn State	43	59%

THOR+ Record: 7-1 (87.5%)

Connor Cook must be salivating at the thought of throwing the ball against Nebraska's "secondary" this weekend and Maryland's the following.

Ohio State

Date	Ohio State	Team	Rank	Projected Win%
9/7	Away	Virginia Tech	57	W
9/12	Home	Hawai'i	110	W
9/19	Home	Northern Illinois	53	W
9/26	Home	Western Michigan	79	W
10/3	Away	Indiana	90	W
10/10	Home	Maryland	78	W
10/17	Home	Penn State	43	W
10/24	Away	Rutgers	93	W
11/7	Home	Minnesota	84	87%
11/14	Away	Illinois	65	73%
11/21	Home	Michigan State	39	78%
11/28	Away	Michigan	15	45%

THOR+ Record: 8-0 (100%)

J.T. Barrett is out of this week's game against Minnesota, so this one could be a lot closer than THOR+ is calling for.

Penn State

Date	Penn State	Team	Rank	Projected Win%
9/5	Away	Temple	27	L
9/12	Home	Buffalo	99	W
9/19	Home	Rutgers	93	W
9/26	Home	San Diego State	66	W
10/3	Home	Army	100	W
10/10	Home	Indiana	90	W
10/17	Away	Ohio State	9	L
10/24	Neutral	Maryland	78	W
10/31	Home	Illinois	65	W
11/7	Away	Northwestern	61	51%
11/21	Home	Michigan	15	41%
11/28	Away	Michigan State	39	41%

THOR+ Record: 9-0 (100%)

Penn State actually looked like they had an offense against Illinois. If it turns out that wasn't just a one week apparition, the Nittany Lions have a chance to win out. I will remain skeptical until it happens, though.

Rutgers

Date	Rutgers	Team	Rank	Projected Win%
9/5	Home	Norfolk State	FCS	W
9/12	Home	Washington State	64	L
9/19	Away	Penn State	43	L
9/26	Home	Kansas	118	W
10/10	Home	Michigan State	39	L
10/17	Away	Indiana	90	W
10/24	Home	Ohio State	9	L
10/31	Away	Wisconsin	26	L
11/7	Away	Michigan	15	13%
11/14	Home	Nebraska	51	40%
11/21	Away	Army	100	47%
11/28	Home	Maryland	78	50%

THOR+ Record: 5-2 (71.4%)

Rutgers very well could be the worst team in the Big Ten without Leonte Carroo. It's pretty incredible how valuable one player can be to a team.