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Week 9 looked about as boring as possible on paper, and it kind of was. However, there were a few games that ended up being thoroughly enjoyable to watch. Iowa, Wisconsin, and Penn State all recorded blowouts -- the latter being quite the surprise -- but the day was saved by Minnesota coming extremely close to pulling off the upset over Michigan and Purdue LOL'ing Nebraska. And, yes, I am calling what Iowa did to Maryland a blowout. That game, while not exactly pretty in the second half, was never competitive. But I did enjoy watching it.
Anyway, with week 9 in the books, let's take a look at the win projections. First, here are the overall season ones:
THOR+ Rank | B1G West Season Wins | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
18 | Iowa | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 3.6% | 21.0% | 42.7% | 32.6% |
26 | Wisconsin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4.3% | 22.7% | 44.2% | 28.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
51 | Nebraska | 0.0% | 10.8% | 34.8% | 41.1% | 13.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
61 | Northwestern | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 7.2% | 28.2% | 36.2% | 24.1% | 4.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
65 | Illinois | 0.0% | 0.0% | 21.1% | 45.9% | 26.8% | 6.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
70 | Purdue | 6.0% | 30.0% | 41.5% | 20.1% | 2.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
84 | Minnesota | 0.0% | 0.0% | 21.0% | 46.8% | 26.4% | 5.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
THOR+ Rank | B1G East Season Wins | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
9 | Ohio State | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 6.4% | 28.4% | 44.3% | 20.6% |
15 | Michigan | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.7% | 9.1% | 28.2% | 42.6% | 19.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
39 | Michigan State | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 5.9% | 23.1% | 40.6% | 26.9% | 3.5% |
43 | Penn State | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 16.6% | 44.6% | 29.9% | 8.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
78 | Maryland | 7.0% | 32.6% | 38.1% | 19.3% | 3.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
90 | Indiana | 0.0% | 0.0% | 19.8% | 44.2% | 26.9% | 8.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
93 | Rutgers | 0.0% | 15.5% | 37.8% | 33.7% | 12.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
And here are the conference ones:
THOR+ Rank | B1G West Conference Wins | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
18 | Iowa | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 3.6% | 21.0% | 42.7% | 32.6% |
26 | Wisconsin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4.3% | 22.7% | 44.2% | 28.8% | 0.0% |
51 | Nebraska | 0.0% | 10.8% | 34.8% | 41.1% | 13.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
61 | Northwestern | 0.0% | 0.0% | 7.2% | 28.2% | 36.2% | 24.1% | 4.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
65 | Illinois | 0.0% | 21.1% | 45.9% | 26.8% | 6.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
70 | Purdue | 0.0% | 6.0% | 30.0% | 41.5% | 20.1% | 2.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
84 | Minnesota | 0.0% | 21.0% | 46.8% | 26.4% | 5.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
THOR+ Rank | B1G East Conference Wins | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
9 | Ohio State | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 6.4% | 28.4% | 44.3% | 20.6% |
15 | Michigan | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.7% | 9.1% | 28.2% | 42.6% | 19.4% | 0.0% |
39 | Michigan State | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 5.9% | 23.1% | 40.6% | 26.9% | 3.5% |
43 | Penn State | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 16.6% | 44.6% | 29.9% | 8.9% | 0.0% |
78 | Maryland | 7.0% | 32.6% | 38.1% | 19.3% | 3.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
90 | Indiana | 19.8% | 44.2% | 26.9% | 8.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
93 | Rutgers | 0.0% | 27.1% | 47.4% | 24.1% | 1.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Nothing really changed at the top of either division. Iowa and Ohio State are still projected to win the West and the East, and face off in the Big Ten Championship game. If that were to happen today, THOR+ would be calling for an Ohio State (58%) victory by a projected score of 24-23. Boo.
But, while the tops of each division didn't really change, there was some movement toward the middle and bottom of the conference. The big winners from week 9 were Penn State and Purdue. The Nittany Lions saw their mean wins go from 7.7 to 8.3, while Purdue went from 3 to 3.8. Meanwhile, the biggest losers were Nebraska and Illinois. (Duh.) Nebraska's loss to Purdue changed their mean wins from 5.2 to 4.6, while Illinois dropped from 5.9 to 5.2.
Nebraska and Illinois derping it up in week 9 also made it a real possibility that the Big Ten West may only have 3 bowl eligible teams when the regular season is all said and done.
THOR+ | B1G West | Mean Wins | Min. Wins | Max. Wins | Mean B1G Wins | Min B1G Wins | Max B1G Wins |
18 | Iowa | 11.0 | 8 | 12 | 7.0 | 4 | 8 |
26 | Wisconsin | 9.0 | 7 | 10 | 6.0 | 4 | 7 |
51 | Nebraska | 4.6 | 3 | 6 | 2.6 | 1 | 4 |
61 | Northwestern | 7.9 | 6 | 10 | 3.9 | 2 | 6 |
65 | Illinois | 5.2 | 4 | 7 | 2.2 | 1 | 4 |
70 | Purdue | 3.8 | 2 | 6 | 2.8 | 1 | 5 |
84 | Minnesota | 5.2 | 4 | 8 | 2.2 | 1 | 5 |
THOR+ | B1G East | Mean Wins | Min. Wins | Max. Wins | Mean B1G Wins | Min B1G Wins | Max B1G Wins |
9 | Ohio State | 10.8 | 8 | 12 | 6.8 | 4 | 8 |
15 | Michigan | 8.7 | 6 | 10 | 5.7 | 3 | 7 |
39 | Michigan State | 10.0 | 8 | 12 | 6.0 | 4 | 8 |
43 | Penn State | 8.3 | 7 | 10 | 5.3 | 4 | 7 |
78 | Maryland | 3.8 | 2 | 6 | 1.8 | 0 | 4 |
90 | Indiana | 5.3 | 4 | 8 | 1.3 | 0 | 4 |
93 | Rutgers | 4.4 | 3 | 7 | 2.0 | 1 | 4 |
As for how THOR+ did in week 9, well, it only missed on the Nebraska and Purdue game. That now leaves THOR+ 46-8 (85.2%) in the Big Ten East this season and 38-16 (70.4%) in the West. Combined, that's 77.8% for the entire Big Ten conference and just a smidge better than the 76.3% that THOR+ has recorded for all FBS games this season.
Big Ten West
Iowa
Date | Iowa | Team | Rank | Projected Win% |
9/5 | Home | Illinois State | FCS | W |
9/12 | Away | Iowa State | 67 | W |
9/19 | Home | Pittsburgh | 47 | W |
9/26 | Home | North Texas | 126 | W |
10/3 | Away | Wisconsin | 26 | W |
10/10 | Home | Illinois | 65 | W |
10/17 | Away | Northwestern | 61 | W |
10/31 | Home | Maryland | 78 | W |
11/7 | Away | Indiana | 90 | 74% |
11/14 | Home | Minnesota | 84 | 83% |
11/21 | Home | Purdue | 70 | 80% |
11/27 | Away | Nebraska | 51 | 61% |
THOR+ Record: 5-2 (71.4%)
Another week, another win. I am trying hard not to get my hopes up over the remaining games because college football is a crazy, crazy game where anything can happen. I know coaches say it all the time to their teams, but I'm also finding that I need to say it to myself: One game at a time.
Illinois
Date | Illinois | Team | Rank | Projected Win% |
9/5 | Home | Kent State | 115 | W |
9/12 | Home | W. Illinois | FCS | W |
9/19 | Away | North Carolina | 13 | L |
9/26 | Home | Middle Tennessee | 74 | W |
10/3 | Home | Nebraska | 51 | W |
10/10 | Away | Iowa | 18 | L |
10/24 | Home | Wisconsin | 26 | L |
10/31 | Away | Penn State | 43 | L |
11/7 | Away | Purdue | 70 | 44% |
11/14 | Home | Ohio State | 9 | 27% |
11/21 | Away | Minnesota | 84 | 49% |
11/28 | Neutral | Northwestern | 61 | 48% |
THOR+ Record: 6-1 (85.7%)
Illinois was my preseason pick to start fast and then fall on their face hard to end the season. They had me fooled into thinking this prediction would be wrong, but now they are doing their best to prove it right after all.
Minnesota
Date | Minnesota | Team | Rank | Projected Win% |
9/3 | Home | TCU | 12 | L |
9/12 | Away | Colorado State | 83 | W |
9/19 | Home | Kent State | 115 | W |
9/26 | Home | Ohio | 86 | W |
10/3 | Away | Northwestern | 61 | L |
10/10 | Away | Purdue | 70 | W |
10/17 | Home | Nebraska | 51 | L |
10/31 | Home | Michigan | 15 | L |
11/7 | Away | Ohio State | 9 | 13% |
11/14 | Away | Iowa | 18 | 17% |
11/21 | Home | Illinois | 65 | 51% |
11/28 | Home | Wisconsin | 26 | 35% |
THOR+ Record: 6-2 (75%)
Minnesota played an inspired game for Jerry Kill, but some horrible end-of-game play calling and clock management kept them from pulling the upset. They are now 4-4 and not guaranteed to reach a bowl game this season. Just to get to 6 wins, they are going to need to beat Illinois and upset one of Ohio State, Iowa, or Wisconsin. It's not impossible, but the odds are not favorable, either.
Nebraska
Date | Nebraska | Team | Rank | Projected Win% |
9/5 | Home | BYU | 35 | L |
9/12 | Home | South Alabama | 116 | W |
9/19 | Away | Miami (Florida) | 54 | L |
9/26 | Home | Southern Mississippi | 72 | W |
10/3 | Away | Illinois | 65 | L |
10/10 | Home | Wisconsin | 26 | L |
10/17 | Away | Minnesota | 84 | W |
10/24 | Home | Northwestern | 61 | L |
10/31 | Away | Purdue | 70 | L |
11/7 | Home | Michigan State | 39 | 52% |
11/14 | Away | Rutgers | 93 | 60% |
11/28 | Home | Iowa | 18 | 39% |
THOR+ Record: 6-3 (66.7%)
I've dialed it back the past couple of weeks, but LOLOLOLOL Nebraska.
Also, yes, the Huskers are slightly favored at home against Michigan State. Do I think they will win? No. But Michigan State hasn't exactly blown anyone out this year, either. So a coin flip projection may not be all that crazy.
Northwestern
Date | Northwestern | Team | Rank | Projected Win% |
9/5 | Home | Stanford | 5 | W |
9/12 | Home | Eastern Illinois | FCS | W |
9/19 | Away | Duke | 34 | W |
9/26 | Home | Ball State | 108 | W |
10/3 | Home | Minnesota | 84 | W |
10/10 | Away | Michigan | 15 | L |
10/17 | Home | Iowa | 18 | L |
10/24 | Away | Nebraska | 51 | W |
11/7 | Home | Penn State | 43 | 49% |
11/14 | Home | Purdue | 70 | 60% |
11/21 | Away | Wisconsin | 26 | 28% |
11/28 | Neutral | Illinois | 65 | 52% |
THOR+ Record: 4-3 (57.1%)
Northwestern comes off a bye and gets ready to play what looks like it should be an ugly game against Penn State. Their win projections right now are spread quite close to even in the range of 7-9 wins. But if they come away from this one victorious, their mean wins should move closer to 9 than 8.
Purdue
Date | Purdue | Team | Rank | Projected Win% |
9/6 | Away | Marshall | 59 | L |
9/12 | Home | Indiana State | FCS | W |
9/19 | Home | Virginia Tech | 57 | L |
9/26 | Home | Bowling Green | 42 | L |
10/3 | Away | Michigan State | 39 | L |
10/10 | Home | Minnesota | 84 | L |
10/17 | Away | Wisconsin | 26 | L |
10/31 | Home | Nebraska | 51 | W |
11/7 | Home | Illinois | 65 | 56% |
11/14 | Away | Northwestern | 61 | 40% |
11/21 | Away | Iowa | 18 | 20% |
11/28 | Home | Indiana | 90 | 65% |
THOR+ Record: 4-3 (57.1%)
Last week, I asked if Purdue would beat an FBS team this year? Purdue responded by earning their first Big Ten home win since 2012. Not only that, the win over Nebraska was also Darrell Hazell's first home Big Ten win as Purdue's head coach, and just his second Big Ten win, overall, in 20 tries. And THOR+ actually thinks they have a good chance to win at least one more before season's end. Feel the excitement.
Wisconsin
Date | Wisconsin | Team | Rank | Projected Win% |
9/5 | Neutral | Alabama | 17 | L |
9/12 | Home | Miami (Ohio) | 120 | W |
9/19 | Home | Troy | 87 | W |
9/26 | Home | Hawai'i | 110 | W |
10/3 | Home | Iowa | 18 | L |
10/10 | Away | Nebraska | 51 | W |
10/17 | Home | Purdue | 70 | W |
10/24 | Away | Illinois | 65 | W |
10/31 | Home | Rutgers | 93 | W |
11/7 | Away | Maryland | 78 | 63% |
11/21 | Home | Northwestern | 61 | 72% |
11/28 | Away | Minnesota | 84 | 65% |
THOR+ Record: 7-2 (77.8%)
Corey Clement being healthy is huge upgrade for the Badgers' running game. Him being healthy makes me feel more confident that Wisconsin could win out, be ranked again, and provide Iowa with a huge quality win.
Big Ten East
Indiana
Date | Indiana | Team | Rank | Projected Win% |
9/5 | Home | S. Illinois | FCS | W |
9/12 | Home | Florida International | 88 | W |
9/19 | Home | Western Kentucky | 46 | W |
9/26 | Away | Wake Forest | 94 | W |
10/3 | Home | Ohio State | 9 | L |
10/10 | Away | Penn State | 43 | L |
10/17 | Home | Rutgers | 93 | L |
10/24 | Away | Michigan State | 39 | L |
11/7 | Home | Iowa | 18 | 26% |
11/14 | Home | Michigan | 15 | 24% |
11/21 | Away | Maryland | 78 | 38% |
11/28 | Away | Purdue | 70 | 35% |
THOR+ Record: 4-3 (57.1%)
Who is more likely to not win a Big Ten game this year? Indiana or Maryland? THOR+ thinks Indiana, but I'm not so sure.
Maryland
Date | Maryland | Team | Rank | Projected Win% |
9/5 | Home | Richmond | FCS | W |
9/12 | Home | Bowling Green | 42 | L |
9/19 | Home | South Florida | 40 | W |
9/26 | Away | West Virginia | 37 | L |
10/3 | Home | Michigan | 15 | L |
10/10 | Away | Ohio State | 9 | L |
10/24 | Neutral | Penn State | 43 | L |
10/31 | Away | Iowa | 18 | L |
11/7 | Home | Wisconsin | 26 | 37% |
11/14 | Away | Michigan State | 39 | 28% |
11/21 | Home | Indiana | 90 | 62% |
11/28 | Away | Rutgers | 93 | 50% |
THOR+ Record: 6-1 (85.7%)
But, seriously, one of these teams has to get a Big Ten win because they play each other on November 21st.
Michigan
Date | Michigan | Team | Rank | Projected Win% |
9/3 | Away | Utah | 22 | L |
9/12 | Home | Oregon State | 101 | W |
9/19 | Home | UNLV | 89 | W |
9/26 | Home | BYU | 35 | W |
10/3 | Away | Maryland | 78 | W |
10/10 | Home | Northwestern | 61 | W |
10/17 | Home | Michigan State | 39 | L |
10/31 | Away | Minnesota | 84 | W |
11/7 | Home | Rutgers | 93 | 87% |
11/14 | Away | Indiana | 90 | 76% |
11/21 | Away | Penn State | 43 | 59% |
11/28 | Home | Ohio State | 9 | 55% |
THOR+ Record: 7-1 (87.5%)
Michigan's outside shot at winning the Big Ten East is still alive thanks to Minnesota's late-game incompetence. Are they now cosmically even for the whole punt debacle against Michigan State?
Michigan State
Date | Michigan State | Team | Rank | Projected Win% |
9/4 | Away | Western Michigan | 79 | W |
9/12 | Home | Oregon | 50 | W |
9/19 | Home | Air Force | 71 | W |
9/26 | Home | Central Michigan | 73 | W |
10/3 | Home | Purdue | 70 | W |
10/10 | Away | Rutgers | 93 | W |
10/17 | Away | Michigan | 15 | W |
10/24 | Home | Indiana | 90 | W |
11/7 | Away | Nebraska | 51 | 48% |
11/14 | Home | Maryland | 78 | 72% |
11/21 | Away | Ohio State | 9 | 22% |
11/28 | Home | Penn State | 43 | 59% |
THOR+ Record: 7-1 (87.5%)
Connor Cook must be salivating at the thought of throwing the ball against Nebraska's "secondary" this weekend and Maryland's the following.
Ohio State
Date | Ohio State | Team | Rank | Projected Win% |
9/7 | Away | Virginia Tech | 57 | W |
9/12 | Home | Hawai'i | 110 | W |
9/19 | Home | Northern Illinois | 53 | W |
9/26 | Home | Western Michigan | 79 | W |
10/3 | Away | Indiana | 90 | W |
10/10 | Home | Maryland | 78 | W |
10/17 | Home | Penn State | 43 | W |
10/24 | Away | Rutgers | 93 | W |
11/7 | Home | Minnesota | 84 | 87% |
11/14 | Away | Illinois | 65 | 73% |
11/21 | Home | Michigan State | 39 | 78% |
11/28 | Away | Michigan | 15 | 45% |
THOR+ Record: 8-0 (100%)
J.T. Barrett is out of this week's game against Minnesota, so this one could be a lot closer than THOR+ is calling for.
Penn State
Date | Penn State | Team | Rank | Projected Win% |
9/5 | Away | Temple | 27 | L |
9/12 | Home | Buffalo | 99 | W |
9/19 | Home | Rutgers | 93 | W |
9/26 | Home | San Diego State | 66 | W |
10/3 | Home | Army | 100 | W |
10/10 | Home | Indiana | 90 | W |
10/17 | Away | Ohio State | 9 | L |
10/24 | Neutral | Maryland | 78 | W |
10/31 | Home | Illinois | 65 | W |
11/7 | Away | Northwestern | 61 | 51% |
11/21 | Home | Michigan | 15 | 41% |
11/28 | Away | Michigan State | 39 | 41% |
THOR+ Record: 9-0 (100%)
Penn State actually looked like they had an offense against Illinois. If it turns out that wasn't just a one week apparition, the Nittany Lions have a chance to win out. I will remain skeptical until it happens, though.
Rutgers
Date | Rutgers | Team | Rank | Projected Win% |
9/5 | Home | Norfolk State | FCS | W |
9/12 | Home | Washington State | 64 | L |
9/19 | Away | Penn State | 43 | L |
9/26 | Home | Kansas | 118 | W |
10/10 | Home | Michigan State | 39 | L |
10/17 | Away | Indiana | 90 | W |
10/24 | Home | Ohio State | 9 | L |
10/31 | Away | Wisconsin | 26 | L |
11/7 | Away | Michigan | 15 | 13% |
11/14 | Home | Nebraska | 51 | 40% |
11/21 | Away | Army | 100 | 47% |
11/28 | Home | Maryland | 78 | 50% |
THOR+ Record: 5-2 (71.4%)
Rutgers very well could be the worst team in the Big Ten without Leonte Carroo. It's pretty incredible how valuable one player can be to a team.