BIG TEN WIN PROJECTIONS: POST-WEEK 12

Week 12 wasn't exactly full of great match ups, but it provided us with some real football weather, two wild outcomes, and our first division champion. From a Big Ten Championship and College Football Playoff perspective, the two biggest results from Saturday were Iowa remaining unbeaten and Michigan State coming out on top in the Horse Shoe. I'll discuss the ramifications below, but first, let's look at some win projections.

With only one game left for each team, here are the overall season win projections:

THOR+ Rank	B1G West Season Wins	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
18	Iowa	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	44.3%	55.7%
28	Wisconsin	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	43.4%	56.6%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
45	Nebraska	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	55.7%	44.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
66	Minnesota	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	56.6%	43.4%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
67	Northwestern	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	48.1%	51.9%	0.0%	0.0%
73	Illinois	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	51.9%	48.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
87	Purdue	44.4%	55.6%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
THOR+ Rank	B1G East Season Wins	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
6	Ohio State	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	60.8%	39.2%	0.0%
7	Michigan	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	39.2%	60.8%	0.0%	0.0%
37	Michigan State	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	40.4%	59.6%	0.0%
43	Penn State	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	59.6%	40.4%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
81	Maryland	46.8%	53.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
86	Indiana	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	55.6%	44.4%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
97	Rutgers	0.0%	0.0%	53.2%	46.8%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

And here are the conference win projections:

THOR+ Rank	B1G West Conference Wins	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8
18	Iowa	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	44.3%	55.7%
28	Wisconsin	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	44.4%	55.6%	0.0%	0.0%
45	Nebraska	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	55.7%	44.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
66	Minnesota	0.0%	0.0%	55.6%	44.4%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
67	Northwestern	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	47.1%	52.9%	0.0%	0.0%
73	Illinois	0.0%	0.0%	52.9%	47.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
87	Purdue	0.0%	44.4%	55.6%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
THOR+ Rank	B1G East Conference Wins	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8
6	Ohio State	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	60.8%	39.2%	0.0%
7	Michigan	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	39.2%	60.8%	0.0%
37	Michigan State	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	40.4%	59.6%	0.0%
43	Penn State	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	59.6%	40.4%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
81	Maryland	45.8%	54.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
86	Indiana	0.0%	55.6%	44.4%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
97	Rutgers	0.0%	54.2%	45.8%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

There's a lot of red, seeing how every team has only two possible outcomes left for their regular season. And with the Ohio State loss this past weekend, Iowa is the only team that still has 12 wins as a distinct possibility. After being given no chance at reaching 12-0 before the season started, Iowa continues to laugh in the face of THOR+ because they now have better than 50% odds of going undefeated in the regular season. The Hawkeyes wrapped up the Big Ten West on Saturday, and are heading to Indianapolis no matter the outcome of the game this Friday. However, beating Nebraska in Lincoln to achieve a perfect regular season would be oh so bittersweet. Let's hope the dream season continues for at least one more week.

Now, if the Big Ten West gave us clarity this past weekend, the Big Ten East was the opposite. Ohio State had the chance to make it a two-team race for the division title, but couldn't beat a banged up Michigan State in Columbus. So, instead of the Buckeyes controlling their own destiny against Michigan this Saturday, it is now the Spartans who win the division if they can beat Penn State in East Lansing this weekend. That means there are three scenarios left for how the East can play out, and three different potential Big Ten Championship match ups for Iowa. Let's look at each of them and how it projects for Iowa.

Scenario 1: Michigan State Beats Penn State

Projected Odds of Happening: 60%

Big Ten East Champion: Michigan State

Projected Championship Game: Iowa (61%) 32, Michigan State (31%) 25

Iowa's Odds at 13-0: 34%

Scenario 2: Michigan State Loses, Michigan Beats Ohio State

Projected Odds of Happening: 24%

Big Ten East Champion: Michigan

Projected Championship Game: Iowa (39%) 20, Michigan (61%) 26

Iowa's Odds at 13-0: 22%

Scenario 3: Michigan State Loses, Ohio State Beats Michigan

Projected Odds of Happening: 15%

Big Ten East Champion: Ohio State

Projected Championship Game: Iowa (39%) 23, Ohio State (61%) 27

Iowa's Odds at 13-0: 22%

Out of the three possible outcomes for the East on Saturday, Michigan State clearly has the best chance of being declared the Big Ten East champ solely due to them not needing assistance from anyone else. If they win, they are in. Additionally, THOR+ also thinks that Michigan State being selected for the championship game is the best match up for Iowa. If that doesn't happen, THOR+ has basically the same odds for the Hawkeyes were they to play the Buckeyes or the Wolverines. Frankly, everyone in the conference has their weakness, and at this point, I'm convinced that Iowa has a legitimate chance to win the Big Ten no matter who ends up their opponent in Indianapolis.

Now, here are the projected mean, max, and min wins for each team:

THOR+	B1G West	Mean Wins	Min. Wins	Max. Wins	Mean B1G Wins	Min B1G Wins	Max B1G Wins
18	Iowa	11.6	11	12	7.6	7	8
28	Wisconsin	8.6	8	9	5.6	5	6
45	Nebraska	5.4	5	6	3.4	3	4
66	Minnesota	5.4	5	6	2.4	2	3
67	Northwestern	9.5	9	10	5.5	5	6
73	Illinois	5.5	5	6	2.5	2	3
87	Purdue	2.6	2	3	1.6	1	2
THOR+	B1G East	Mean Wins	Min. Wins	Max. Wins	Mean B1G Wins	Min B1G Wins	Max B1G Wins
6	Ohio State	10.4	10	11	6.4	6	7
7	Michigan	9.6	9	10	6.6	6	7
37	Michigan State	10.6	10	11	6.6	6	7
43	Penn State	7.4	7	8	4.4	4	5
81	Maryland	2.5	2	3	0.5	0	1
86	Indiana	5.4	5	6	1.4	1	2
97	Rutgers	4.5	4	5	1.5	1	2

THOR+ had its worst week in the Big Ten in week 12, missing on Indiana, Northwestern, Rutgers, and Michigan State. I was fully prepared for the Rutgers and Indiana games to be wrong, but the Northwestern and Michigan State games surprised me. Anyway, THOR+ is now at 71.2% for the season in picking Big Ten West teams and 80% in picking teams from the East. Overall, THOR+ is 75.7% for the conference, which is actually right on the nose for how THOR+ has picked all FBS games this season. Weird.

Big Ten West

Iowa

Date	Iowa	Team	Rank	Projected Win%
9/5	Home	Illinois State	FCS	W
9/12	Away	Iowa State	70	W
9/19	Home	Pittsburgh	49	W
9/26	Home	North Texas	125	W
10/3	Away	Wisconsin	28	W
10/10	Home	Illinois	73	W
10/17	Away	Northwestern	67	W
10/31	Home	Maryland	81	W
11/7	Away	Indiana	86	W
11/14	Home	Minnesota	66	W
11/21	Home	Purdue	87	W
11/27	Away	Nebraska	45	56%

THOR+ Record: 8-2 (80%)

Misses: at Iowa State, at Wisconsin

The regular season boils down to this game. Iowa, playing for a perfect regular season. Against Nebraska, playing for bowl eligibility (LOL). Both fan bases hate each other, and I'm pretty sure both teams are on the same page. If this isn't a rivalry yet, let's see how celebrating 12-0 on Nebraska's home field goes over.

Illinois

Date	Illinois	Team	Rank	Projected Win%
9/5	Home	Kent State	112	W
9/12	Home	W. Illinois	FCS	W
9/19	Away	North Carolina	2	L
9/26	Home	Middle Tennessee	80	W
10/3	Home	Nebraska	45	W
10/10	Away	Iowa	18	L
10/24	Home	Wisconsin	28	L
10/31	Away	Penn State	43	L
11/7	Away	Purdue	87	W
11/14	Home	Ohio State	6	L
11/21	Away	Minnesota	66	L
11/28	Neutral	Northwestern	67	47%

THOR+ Record: 8-2 (80%)

Misses: vs. Wisconsin, at Purdue

Illinois is playing for bowl eligibility and the only thing standing in their way is Northwestern's defense.

Minnesota

Date	Minnesota	Team	Rank	Projected Win%
9/3	Home	TCU	22	L
9/12	Away	Colorado State	85	W
9/19	Home	Kent State	112	W
9/26	Home	Ohio	95	W
10/3	Away	Northwestern	67	L
10/10	Away	Purdue	87	W
10/17	Home	Nebraska	45	L
10/31	Home	Michigan	7	L
11/7	Away	Ohio State	6	L
11/14	Away	Iowa	18	L
11/21	Home	Illinois	73	W
11/28	Home	Wisconsin	28	44%

THOR+ Record: 9-2 (81.8%)

Misses: at Colorado State, at Purdue

Minnesota is playing better lately, and it has them up to #66 in the nation, according to THOR+. That makes this upcoming game against Wisconsin closer than what it was looking like a month ago. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if Minnesota pulled out a close one at home.

Nebraska

Date	Nebraska	Team	Rank	Projected Win%
9/5	Home	BYU	31	L
9/12	Home	South Alabama	115	W
9/19	Away	Miami (Florida)	59	L
9/26	Home	Southern Mississippi	58	W
10/3	Away	Illinois	73	L
10/10	Home	Wisconsin	28	L
10/17	Away	Minnesota	66	W
10/24	Home	Northwestern	67	L
10/31	Away	Purdue	87	L
11/7	Home	Michigan State	37	W
11/14	Away	Rutgers	97	W
11/28	Home	Iowa	18	44%

THOR+ Record: 8-3 (72.7%)

Misses: vs. BYU, vs. Northwestern, at Purdue

Seriously, you guys, if Iowa can't celebrate 12-0 in front of a packed Kinnick crowd, finishing a perfect season in Memorial Stadium is a nice second option. The goalposts should be easier to get out of an open-air stadium.

Northwestern

Date	Northwestern	Team	Rank	Projected Win%
9/5	Home	Stanford	8	W
9/12	Home	Eastern Illinois	FCS	W
9/19	Away	Duke	68	W
9/26	Home	Ball State	109	W
10/3	Home	Minnesota	66	W
10/10	Away	Michigan	7	L
10/17	Home	Iowa	18	L
10/24	Away	Nebraska	45	W
11/7	Home	Penn State	43	W
11/14	Home	Purdue	87	W
11/21	Away	Wisconsin	28	W
11/28	Neutral	Illinois	73	53%

THOR+ Record: 5-5 (50%)

Misses: vs. Stanford, at Duke, at Nebraska, vs. Penn State, at Wisconsin

The Wildcats continue to thumb their collective nose at THOR+ and win, despite possessing one of the worst offenses in the nation. They passed their most difficult remaining test last week, and now the only thing standing in their way of 10 wins this season is an Illini squad with a lame duck coach.

Purdue

Date	Purdue	Team	Rank	Projected Win%
9/6	Away	Marshall	53	L
9/12	Home	Indiana State	FCS	W
9/19	Home	Virginia Tech	61	L
9/26	Home	Bowling Green	36	L
10/3	Away	Michigan State	37	L
10/10	Home	Minnesota	66	L
10/17	Away	Wisconsin	28	L
10/31	Home	Nebraska	45	W
11/7	Home	Illinois	73	L
11/14	Away	Northwestern	67	L
11/21	Away	Iowa	18	L
11/28	Home	Indiana	86	56%

THOR+ Record: 6-4 (60%)

Misses: vs. Bowling Green, vs. Minnesota, vs. Illinois, vs. Nebraska

Purdue is another team that THOR+ has had some trouble with, and I have a sneaking suspicion THOR+ is going to miss on them again this week. But it is a rivalry game and it is in West Lafayette, so I guess anything could happen.

Wisconsin

Date	Wisconsin	Team	Rank	Projected Win%
9/5	Neutral	Alabama	5	L
9/12	Home	Miami (Ohio)	117	W
9/19	Home	Troy	92	W
9/26	Home	Hawai'i	113	W
10/3	Home	Iowa	18	L
10/10	Away	Nebraska	45	W
10/17	Home	Purdue	87	W
10/24	Away	Illinois	73	W
10/31	Home	Rutgers	97	W
11/7	Away	Maryland	81	W
11/21	Home	Northwestern	67	L
11/28	Away	Minnesota	66	56%

THOR+ Record: 8-3 (72.7%)

Misses: vs. Iowa, at Illinois, vs. Northwestern

I'm still not sure how Jazz Peavy wasn't awarded a touchdown for this catch. And, since that's likely the difference between 9 and 10 wins, I'm really thankful I'm not a Badger fan.

Big Ten East

Indiana

Date	Indiana	Team	Rank	Projected Win%
9/5	Home	S. Illinois	FCS	W
9/12	Home	Florida International	104	W
9/19	Home	Western Kentucky	35	W
9/26	Away	Wake Forest	90	W
10/3	Home	Ohio State	6	L
10/10	Away	Penn State	43	L
10/17	Home	Rutgers	97	L
10/24	Away	Michigan State	37	L
11/7	Home	Iowa	18	L
11/14	Home	Michigan	7	L
11/21	Away	Maryland	81	W
11/28	Away	Purdue	87	44%

THOR+ Record: 6-4 (60%)

Misses: vs. Western Kentucky, at Wake Forest, vs. Rutgers, at Maryland

Indiana's chances at a bowl game come down to a road game with Purdue. Despite THOR+ having it out for the Hoosiers this season, I would expect Indiana to win this game.

Maryland

Date	Maryland	Team	Rank	Projected Win%
9/5	Home	Richmond	FCS	W
9/12	Home	Bowling Green	36	L
9/19	Home	South Florida	26	W
9/26	Away	West Virginia	30	L
10/3	Home	Michigan	7	L
10/10	Away	Ohio State	6	L
10/24	Neutral	Penn State	43	L
10/31	Away	Iowa	18	L
11/7	Home	Wisconsin	28	L
11/14	Away	Michigan State	37	L
11/21	Home	Indiana	86	L
11/28	Away	Rutgers	97	54%

THOR+ Record: 8-3 (72.7%)

Misses: vs. Bowling Green, vs. South Florida, vs. Indiana

Maryland is a raging dumpster fire this year. I'll be curious to see who ends up being their next head coach.

Michigan

Date	Michigan	Team	Rank	Projected Win%
9/3	Away	Utah	33	L
9/12	Home	Oregon State	102	W
9/19	Home	UNLV	99	W
9/26	Home	BYU	31	W
10/3	Away	Maryland	81	W
10/10	Home	Northwestern	67	W
10/17	Home	Michigan State	37	L
10/31	Away	Minnesota	66	W
11/7	Home	Rutgers	97	W
11/14	Away	Indiana	86	W
11/21	Away	Penn State	43	W
11/28	Home	Ohio State	6	61%

THOR+ Record: 10-1 (90.9%)

Misses: vs. Michigan State

That punt miscue from 5 weeks ago looms large...

Michigan State

Date	Michigan State	Team	Rank	Projected Win%
9/4	Away	Western Michigan	82	W
9/12	Home	Oregon	21	W
9/19	Home	Air Force	65	W
9/26	Home	Central Michigan	77	W
10/3	Home	Purdue	87	W
10/10	Away	Rutgers	97	W
10/17	Away	Michigan	7	W
10/24	Home	Indiana	86	W
11/7	Away	Nebraska	45	L
11/14	Home	Maryland	81	W
11/21	Away	Ohio State	6	W
11/28	Home	Penn State	43	60%

THOR+ Record: 9-2 (81.8%)

Misses: at Michigan, at Ohio State

The Spartans are such a weird team. They play everybody close, no matter how good or bad they are. And they keep winning the big road games that no one expects them to win. Go figure.

Ohio State

Date	Ohio State	Team	Rank	Projected Win%
9/7	Away	Virginia Tech	61	W
9/12	Home	Hawai'i	113	W
9/19	Home	Northern Illinois	48	W
9/26	Home	Western Michigan	82	W
10/3	Away	Indiana	86	W
10/10	Home	Maryland	81	W
10/17	Home	Penn State	43	W
10/24	Away	Rutgers	97	W
11/7	Home	Minnesota	66	W
11/14	Away	Illinois	73	W
11/21	Home	Michigan State	37	L
11/28	Away	Michigan	7	39%

THOR+ Record: 10-1 (90.9%)

Misses: vs. Michigan State

Ohio State and Michigan State played the weirdest game of the week. I don't even know where to start or how to discuss it here quickly. So, I'll just direct you to the advanced stats box score.

Penn State

Date	Penn State	Team	Rank	Projected Win%
9/5	Away	Temple	32	L
9/12	Home	Buffalo	100	W
9/19	Home	Rutgers	97	W
9/26	Home	San Diego State	56	W
10/3	Home	Army	103	W
10/10	Home	Indiana	86	W
10/17	Away	Ohio State	6	L
10/24	Neutral	Maryland	81	W
10/31	Home	Illinois	73	W
11/7	Away	Northwestern	67	L
11/21	Home	Michigan	7	L
11/28	Away	Michigan State	37	40%

THOR+ Recored: 10-1 (90.9%)

Misses: at Northwestern

I still wouldn't be totally surprised if Penn State pulled the upset this weekend. I was thinking the Michigan game at Happy Valley would be a decent chance for it, but maybe it will be this weekend. Or maybe not.

Rutgers

Date	Rutgers	Team	Rank	Projected Win%
9/5	Home	Norfolk State	FCS	W
9/12	Home	Washington State	46	L
9/19	Away	Penn State	43	L
9/26	Home	Kansas	114	W
10/10	Home	Michigan State	37	L
10/17	Away	Indiana	86	W
10/24	Home	Ohio State	6	L
10/31	Away	Wisconsin	28	L
11/7	Away	Michigan	7	L
11/14	Home	Nebraska	45	L
11/21	Away	Army	103	W
11/28	Home	Maryland	81	46%

THOR+ Record: 7-3 (70%)

Misses: vs. Washington State, at Indiana, at Army

Bowl eligibility is off the table, but Rutgers could still potentially win the battle of terrible football teams who recently joined the Big Ten.