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Week 12 wasn't exactly full of great match ups, but it provided us with some real football weather, two wild outcomes, and our first division champion. From a Big Ten Championship and College Football Playoff perspective, the two biggest results from Saturday were Iowa remaining unbeaten and Michigan State coming out on top in the Horse Shoe. I'll discuss the ramifications below, but first, let's look at some win projections.
With only one game left for each team, here are the overall season win projections:
THOR+ Rank | B1G West Season Wins | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
18 | Iowa | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 44.3% | 55.7% |
28 | Wisconsin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 43.4% | 56.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
45 | Nebraska | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 55.7% | 44.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
66 | Minnesota | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 56.6% | 43.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
67 | Northwestern | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 48.1% | 51.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
73 | Illinois | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 51.9% | 48.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
87 | Purdue | 44.4% | 55.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
THOR+ Rank | B1G East Season Wins | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
6 | Ohio State | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 60.8% | 39.2% | 0.0% |
7 | Michigan | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 39.2% | 60.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
37 | Michigan State | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 40.4% | 59.6% | 0.0% |
43 | Penn State | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 59.6% | 40.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
81 | Maryland | 46.8% | 53.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
86 | Indiana | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 55.6% | 44.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
97 | Rutgers | 0.0% | 0.0% | 53.2% | 46.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
And here are the conference win projections:
THOR+ Rank | B1G West Conference Wins | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
18 | Iowa | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 44.3% | 55.7% |
28 | Wisconsin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 44.4% | 55.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
45 | Nebraska | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 55.7% | 44.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
66 | Minnesota | 0.0% | 0.0% | 55.6% | 44.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
67 | Northwestern | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 47.1% | 52.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
73 | Illinois | 0.0% | 0.0% | 52.9% | 47.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
87 | Purdue | 0.0% | 44.4% | 55.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
THOR+ Rank | B1G East Conference Wins | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
6 | Ohio State | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 60.8% | 39.2% | 0.0% |
7 | Michigan | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 39.2% | 60.8% | 0.0% |
37 | Michigan State | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 40.4% | 59.6% | 0.0% |
43 | Penn State | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 59.6% | 40.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
81 | Maryland | 45.8% | 54.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
86 | Indiana | 0.0% | 55.6% | 44.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
97 | Rutgers | 0.0% | 54.2% | 45.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
There's a lot of red, seeing how every team has only two possible outcomes left for their regular season. And with the Ohio State loss this past weekend, Iowa is the only team that still has 12 wins as a distinct possibility. After being given no chance at reaching 12-0 before the season started, Iowa continues to laugh in the face of THOR+ because they now have better than 50% odds of going undefeated in the regular season. The Hawkeyes wrapped up the Big Ten West on Saturday, and are heading to Indianapolis no matter the outcome of the game this Friday. However, beating Nebraska in Lincoln to achieve a perfect regular season would be oh so bittersweet. Let's hope the dream season continues for at least one more week.
Now, if the Big Ten West gave us clarity this past weekend, the Big Ten East was the opposite. Ohio State had the chance to make it a two-team race for the division title, but couldn't beat a banged up Michigan State in Columbus. So, instead of the Buckeyes controlling their own destiny against Michigan this Saturday, it is now the Spartans who win the division if they can beat Penn State in East Lansing this weekend. That means there are three scenarios left for how the East can play out, and three different potential Big Ten Championship match ups for Iowa. Let's look at each of them and how it projects for Iowa.
Scenario 1: Michigan State Beats Penn State
Projected Odds of Happening: 60%
Big Ten East Champion: Michigan State
Projected Championship Game: Iowa (61%) 32, Michigan State (31%) 25
Iowa's Odds at 13-0: 34%
Scenario 2: Michigan State Loses, Michigan Beats Ohio State
Projected Odds of Happening: 24%
Big Ten East Champion: Michigan
Projected Championship Game: Iowa (39%) 20, Michigan (61%) 26
Iowa's Odds at 13-0: 22%
Scenario 3: Michigan State Loses, Ohio State Beats Michigan
Projected Odds of Happening: 15%
Big Ten East Champion: Ohio State
Projected Championship Game: Iowa (39%) 23, Ohio State (61%) 27
Iowa's Odds at 13-0: 22%
Out of the three possible outcomes for the East on Saturday, Michigan State clearly has the best chance of being declared the Big Ten East champ solely due to them not needing assistance from anyone else. If they win, they are in. Additionally, THOR+ also thinks that Michigan State being selected for the championship game is the best match up for Iowa. If that doesn't happen, THOR+ has basically the same odds for the Hawkeyes were they to play the Buckeyes or the Wolverines. Frankly, everyone in the conference has their weakness, and at this point, I'm convinced that Iowa has a legitimate chance to win the Big Ten no matter who ends up their opponent in Indianapolis.
Now, here are the projected mean, max, and min wins for each team:
THOR+ | B1G West | Mean Wins | Min. Wins | Max. Wins | Mean B1G Wins | Min B1G Wins | Max B1G Wins |
18 | Iowa | 11.6 | 11 | 12 | 7.6 | 7 | 8 |
28 | Wisconsin | 8.6 | 8 | 9 | 5.6 | 5 | 6 |
45 | Nebraska | 5.4 | 5 | 6 | 3.4 | 3 | 4 |
66 | Minnesota | 5.4 | 5 | 6 | 2.4 | 2 | 3 |
67 | Northwestern | 9.5 | 9 | 10 | 5.5 | 5 | 6 |
73 | Illinois | 5.5 | 5 | 6 | 2.5 | 2 | 3 |
87 | Purdue | 2.6 | 2 | 3 | 1.6 | 1 | 2 |
THOR+ | B1G East | Mean Wins | Min. Wins | Max. Wins | Mean B1G Wins | Min B1G Wins | Max B1G Wins |
6 | Ohio State | 10.4 | 10 | 11 | 6.4 | 6 | 7 |
7 | Michigan | 9.6 | 9 | 10 | 6.6 | 6 | 7 |
37 | Michigan State | 10.6 | 10 | 11 | 6.6 | 6 | 7 |
43 | Penn State | 7.4 | 7 | 8 | 4.4 | 4 | 5 |
81 | Maryland | 2.5 | 2 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 |
86 | Indiana | 5.4 | 5 | 6 | 1.4 | 1 | 2 |
97 | Rutgers | 4.5 | 4 | 5 | 1.5 | 1 | 2 |
THOR+ had its worst week in the Big Ten in week 12, missing on Indiana, Northwestern, Rutgers, and Michigan State. I was fully prepared for the Rutgers and Indiana games to be wrong, but the Northwestern and Michigan State games surprised me. Anyway, THOR+ is now at 71.2% for the season in picking Big Ten West teams and 80% in picking teams from the East. Overall, THOR+ is 75.7% for the conference, which is actually right on the nose for how THOR+ has picked all FBS games this season. Weird.
Big Ten West
Iowa
Date | Iowa | Team | Rank | Projected Win% |
9/5 | Home | Illinois State | FCS | W |
9/12 | Away | Iowa State | 70 | W |
9/19 | Home | Pittsburgh | 49 | W |
9/26 | Home | North Texas | 125 | W |
10/3 | Away | Wisconsin | 28 | W |
10/10 | Home | Illinois | 73 | W |
10/17 | Away | Northwestern | 67 | W |
10/31 | Home | Maryland | 81 | W |
11/7 | Away | Indiana | 86 | W |
11/14 | Home | Minnesota | 66 | W |
11/21 | Home | Purdue | 87 | W |
11/27 | Away | Nebraska | 45 | 56% |
THOR+ Record: 8-2 (80%)
Misses: at Iowa State, at Wisconsin
The regular season boils down to this game. Iowa, playing for a perfect regular season. Against Nebraska, playing for bowl eligibility (LOL). Both fan bases hate each other, and I'm pretty sure both teams are on the same page. If this isn't a rivalry yet, let's see how celebrating 12-0 on Nebraska's home field goes over.
Illinois
Date | Illinois | Team | Rank | Projected Win% |
9/5 | Home | Kent State | 112 | W |
9/12 | Home | W. Illinois | FCS | W |
9/19 | Away | North Carolina | 2 | L |
9/26 | Home | Middle Tennessee | 80 | W |
10/3 | Home | Nebraska | 45 | W |
10/10 | Away | Iowa | 18 | L |
10/24 | Home | Wisconsin | 28 | L |
10/31 | Away | Penn State | 43 | L |
11/7 | Away | Purdue | 87 | W |
11/14 | Home | Ohio State | 6 | L |
11/21 | Away | Minnesota | 66 | L |
11/28 | Neutral | Northwestern | 67 | 47% |
THOR+ Record: 8-2 (80%)
Misses: vs. Wisconsin, at Purdue
Illinois is playing for bowl eligibility and the only thing standing in their way is Northwestern's defense.
Minnesota
Date | Minnesota | Team | Rank | Projected Win% |
9/3 | Home | TCU | 22 | L |
9/12 | Away | Colorado State | 85 | W |
9/19 | Home | Kent State | 112 | W |
9/26 | Home | Ohio | 95 | W |
10/3 | Away | Northwestern | 67 | L |
10/10 | Away | Purdue | 87 | W |
10/17 | Home | Nebraska | 45 | L |
10/31 | Home | Michigan | 7 | L |
11/7 | Away | Ohio State | 6 | L |
11/14 | Away | Iowa | 18 | L |
11/21 | Home | Illinois | 73 | W |
11/28 | Home | Wisconsin | 28 | 44% |
THOR+ Record: 9-2 (81.8%)
Misses: at Colorado State, at Purdue
Minnesota is playing better lately, and it has them up to #66 in the nation, according to THOR+. That makes this upcoming game against Wisconsin closer than what it was looking like a month ago. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if Minnesota pulled out a close one at home.
Nebraska
Date | Nebraska | Team | Rank | Projected Win% |
9/5 | Home | BYU | 31 | L |
9/12 | Home | South Alabama | 115 | W |
9/19 | Away | Miami (Florida) | 59 | L |
9/26 | Home | Southern Mississippi | 58 | W |
10/3 | Away | Illinois | 73 | L |
10/10 | Home | Wisconsin | 28 | L |
10/17 | Away | Minnesota | 66 | W |
10/24 | Home | Northwestern | 67 | L |
10/31 | Away | Purdue | 87 | L |
11/7 | Home | Michigan State | 37 | W |
11/14 | Away | Rutgers | 97 | W |
11/28 | Home | Iowa | 18 | 44% |
THOR+ Record: 8-3 (72.7%)
Misses: vs. BYU, vs. Northwestern, at Purdue
Seriously, you guys, if Iowa can't celebrate 12-0 in front of a packed Kinnick crowd, finishing a perfect season in Memorial Stadium is a nice second option. The goalposts should be easier to get out of an open-air stadium.
Northwestern
Date | Northwestern | Team | Rank | Projected Win% |
9/5 | Home | Stanford | 8 | W |
9/12 | Home | Eastern Illinois | FCS | W |
9/19 | Away | Duke | 68 | W |
9/26 | Home | Ball State | 109 | W |
10/3 | Home | Minnesota | 66 | W |
10/10 | Away | Michigan | 7 | L |
10/17 | Home | Iowa | 18 | L |
10/24 | Away | Nebraska | 45 | W |
11/7 | Home | Penn State | 43 | W |
11/14 | Home | Purdue | 87 | W |
11/21 | Away | Wisconsin | 28 | W |
11/28 | Neutral | Illinois | 73 | 53% |
THOR+ Record: 5-5 (50%)
Misses: vs. Stanford, at Duke, at Nebraska, vs. Penn State, at Wisconsin
The Wildcats continue to thumb their collective nose at THOR+ and win, despite possessing one of the worst offenses in the nation. They passed their most difficult remaining test last week, and now the only thing standing in their way of 10 wins this season is an Illini squad with a lame duck coach.
Purdue
Date | Purdue | Team | Rank | Projected Win% |
9/6 | Away | Marshall | 53 | L |
9/12 | Home | Indiana State | FCS | W |
9/19 | Home | Virginia Tech | 61 | L |
9/26 | Home | Bowling Green | 36 | L |
10/3 | Away | Michigan State | 37 | L |
10/10 | Home | Minnesota | 66 | L |
10/17 | Away | Wisconsin | 28 | L |
10/31 | Home | Nebraska | 45 | W |
11/7 | Home | Illinois | 73 | L |
11/14 | Away | Northwestern | 67 | L |
11/21 | Away | Iowa | 18 | L |
11/28 | Home | Indiana | 86 | 56% |
THOR+ Record: 6-4 (60%)
Misses: vs. Bowling Green, vs. Minnesota, vs. Illinois, vs. Nebraska
Purdue is another team that THOR+ has had some trouble with, and I have a sneaking suspicion THOR+ is going to miss on them again this week. But it is a rivalry game and it is in West Lafayette, so I guess anything could happen.
Wisconsin
Date | Wisconsin | Team | Rank | Projected Win% |
9/5 | Neutral | Alabama | 5 | L |
9/12 | Home | Miami (Ohio) | 117 | W |
9/19 | Home | Troy | 92 | W |
9/26 | Home | Hawai'i | 113 | W |
10/3 | Home | Iowa | 18 | L |
10/10 | Away | Nebraska | 45 | W |
10/17 | Home | Purdue | 87 | W |
10/24 | Away | Illinois | 73 | W |
10/31 | Home | Rutgers | 97 | W |
11/7 | Away | Maryland | 81 | W |
11/21 | Home | Northwestern | 67 | L |
11/28 | Away | Minnesota | 66 | 56% |
THOR+ Record: 8-3 (72.7%)
Misses: vs. Iowa, at Illinois, vs. Northwestern
I'm still not sure how Jazz Peavy wasn't awarded a touchdown for this catch. And, since that's likely the difference between 9 and 10 wins, I'm really thankful I'm not a Badger fan.
Big Ten East
Indiana
Date | Indiana | Team | Rank | Projected Win% |
9/5 | Home | S. Illinois | FCS | W |
9/12 | Home | Florida International | 104 | W |
9/19 | Home | Western Kentucky | 35 | W |
9/26 | Away | Wake Forest | 90 | W |
10/3 | Home | Ohio State | 6 | L |
10/10 | Away | Penn State | 43 | L |
10/17 | Home | Rutgers | 97 | L |
10/24 | Away | Michigan State | 37 | L |
11/7 | Home | Iowa | 18 | L |
11/14 | Home | Michigan | 7 | L |
11/21 | Away | Maryland | 81 | W |
11/28 | Away | Purdue | 87 | 44% |
THOR+ Record: 6-4 (60%)
Misses: vs. Western Kentucky, at Wake Forest, vs. Rutgers, at Maryland
Indiana's chances at a bowl game come down to a road game with Purdue. Despite THOR+ having it out for the Hoosiers this season, I would expect Indiana to win this game.
Maryland
Date | Maryland | Team | Rank | Projected Win% |
9/5 | Home | Richmond | FCS | W |
9/12 | Home | Bowling Green | 36 | L |
9/19 | Home | South Florida | 26 | W |
9/26 | Away | West Virginia | 30 | L |
10/3 | Home | Michigan | 7 | L |
10/10 | Away | Ohio State | 6 | L |
10/24 | Neutral | Penn State | 43 | L |
10/31 | Away | Iowa | 18 | L |
11/7 | Home | Wisconsin | 28 | L |
11/14 | Away | Michigan State | 37 | L |
11/21 | Home | Indiana | 86 | L |
11/28 | Away | Rutgers | 97 | 54% |
THOR+ Record: 8-3 (72.7%)
Misses: vs. Bowling Green, vs. South Florida, vs. Indiana
Maryland is a raging dumpster fire this year. I'll be curious to see who ends up being their next head coach.
Michigan
Date | Michigan | Team | Rank | Projected Win% |
9/3 | Away | Utah | 33 | L |
9/12 | Home | Oregon State | 102 | W |
9/19 | Home | UNLV | 99 | W |
9/26 | Home | BYU | 31 | W |
10/3 | Away | Maryland | 81 | W |
10/10 | Home | Northwestern | 67 | W |
10/17 | Home | Michigan State | 37 | L |
10/31 | Away | Minnesota | 66 | W |
11/7 | Home | Rutgers | 97 | W |
11/14 | Away | Indiana | 86 | W |
11/21 | Away | Penn State | 43 | W |
11/28 | Home | Ohio State | 6 | 61% |
THOR+ Record: 10-1 (90.9%)
Misses: vs. Michigan State
That punt miscue from 5 weeks ago looms large...
Michigan State
Date | Michigan State | Team | Rank | Projected Win% |
9/4 | Away | Western Michigan | 82 | W |
9/12 | Home | Oregon | 21 | W |
9/19 | Home | Air Force | 65 | W |
9/26 | Home | Central Michigan | 77 | W |
10/3 | Home | Purdue | 87 | W |
10/10 | Away | Rutgers | 97 | W |
10/17 | Away | Michigan | 7 | W |
10/24 | Home | Indiana | 86 | W |
11/7 | Away | Nebraska | 45 | L |
11/14 | Home | Maryland | 81 | W |
11/21 | Away | Ohio State | 6 | W |
11/28 | Home | Penn State | 43 | 60% |
THOR+ Record: 9-2 (81.8%)
Misses: at Michigan, at Ohio State
The Spartans are such a weird team. They play everybody close, no matter how good or bad they are. And they keep winning the big road games that no one expects them to win. Go figure.
Ohio State
Date | Ohio State | Team | Rank | Projected Win% |
9/7 | Away | Virginia Tech | 61 | W |
9/12 | Home | Hawai'i | 113 | W |
9/19 | Home | Northern Illinois | 48 | W |
9/26 | Home | Western Michigan | 82 | W |
10/3 | Away | Indiana | 86 | W |
10/10 | Home | Maryland | 81 | W |
10/17 | Home | Penn State | 43 | W |
10/24 | Away | Rutgers | 97 | W |
11/7 | Home | Minnesota | 66 | W |
11/14 | Away | Illinois | 73 | W |
11/21 | Home | Michigan State | 37 | L |
11/28 | Away | Michigan | 7 | 39% |
THOR+ Record: 10-1 (90.9%)
Misses: vs. Michigan State
Ohio State and Michigan State played the weirdest game of the week. I don't even know where to start or how to discuss it here quickly. So, I'll just direct you to the advanced stats box score.
Penn State
Date | Penn State | Team | Rank | Projected Win% |
9/5 | Away | Temple | 32 | L |
9/12 | Home | Buffalo | 100 | W |
9/19 | Home | Rutgers | 97 | W |
9/26 | Home | San Diego State | 56 | W |
10/3 | Home | Army | 103 | W |
10/10 | Home | Indiana | 86 | W |
10/17 | Away | Ohio State | 6 | L |
10/24 | Neutral | Maryland | 81 | W |
10/31 | Home | Illinois | 73 | W |
11/7 | Away | Northwestern | 67 | L |
11/21 | Home | Michigan | 7 | L |
11/28 | Away | Michigan State | 37 | 40% |
THOR+ Recored: 10-1 (90.9%)
Misses: at Northwestern
I still wouldn't be totally surprised if Penn State pulled the upset this weekend. I was thinking the Michigan game at Happy Valley would be a decent chance for it, but maybe it will be this weekend. Or maybe not.
Rutgers
Date | Rutgers | Team | Rank | Projected Win% |
9/5 | Home | Norfolk State | FCS | W |
9/12 | Home | Washington State | 46 | L |
9/19 | Away | Penn State | 43 | L |
9/26 | Home | Kansas | 114 | W |
10/10 | Home | Michigan State | 37 | L |
10/17 | Away | Indiana | 86 | W |
10/24 | Home | Ohio State | 6 | L |
10/31 | Away | Wisconsin | 28 | L |
11/7 | Away | Michigan | 7 | L |
11/14 | Home | Nebraska | 45 | L |
11/21 | Away | Army | 103 | W |
11/28 | Home | Maryland | 81 | 46% |
THOR+ Record: 7-3 (70%)
Misses: vs. Washington State, at Indiana, at Army
Bowl eligibility is off the table, but Rutgers could still potentially win the battle of terrible football teams who recently joined the Big Ten.