BIG TEN POWER RANKINGS: POST-WEEK 11

Week 12 is the week in which Iowa can and should clinch the division title. No long, rambling introduction this week, folks. I will be in Kinnick on Saturday and I want to fully experience an 11-0, Big Ten West champion Iowa Hawkeyes.

Let's do this.

To the power rankings!

2015 Big Ten Power Rankings: Post-Week 11

Rank	Team	Coach	Offense+	Defense+	Special Teams+	THOR+	PPG vs. Avg.	PPGA vs. Avg.	W% vs. Avg.	W vs. Avg.
5	Ohio State	Urban Meyer	134	147	100	139	39.8	18.5	0.812	9.7
7	Michigan	Jim Harbaugh	119	158	98	136	36.6	16.4	0.796	9.6
21	Iowa	Kirk Ferentz	118	137	89	126	36.1	21.2	0.716	8.6
28	Wisconsin	Paul Chryst	94	147	126	120	30.2	18.5	0.673	8.1
37	Michigan State	Mark Dantonio	120	113	87	115	36.4	26.5	0.636	7.6
38	Penn State	James Franklin	96	136	101	115	30.4	21.3	0.633	7.6
46	Nebraska	Mike Riley	119	104	109	111	36.6	28.7	0.605	7.3
67	Illinois	Bill Cubit	78	128	115	103	25.9	23.1	0.541	6.5
69	Northwestern	Pat Fitzgerald	58	144	126	101	20.8	19.3	0.527	6.3
72	Minnesota	Tracy Claeys	79	118	111	99	26.2	25.2	0.511	6.1
74	Maryland	Mike Locksley	95	99	134	98	30.5	29.6	0.505	6.1
81	Purdue	Darrell Hazell	99	93	62	95	30.3	31.1	0.477	5.7
89	Indiana	Kevin Wilson	104	71	133	90	33.0	36.0	0.442	5.3
101	Rutgers	Kyle Flood	93	64	141	82	30.3	37.5	0.379	4.6

1. Ohio State #5, 139 THOR+

Rank	Offense	Coach	Passing+	Rushing+	Turnovers	Blocking+	Offense+	PPG vs. Avg.
18	Ohio State	Urban Meyer	112	119	89	104	134	36.4

Rank	Defense	Coach	Passing+	Rushing+	Turnovers	Pressure+	Defense+	PPGA vs. Avg
9	Ohio State	Urban Meyer	136	117	102	113	147	15.1

Rank	Special Teams	Coach	Off. Special Teams+	PPG vs. Avg.	Def. Special Teams+	PPGA vs. Avg.	Special Teams+
67	Ohio State	Urban Meyer	51	3.4	148	3.4	100

The Buckeyes move up quite a bit this week to #5 because THOR+ had some shakeups at the top of the rankings and also because a 3 percentage point increase in their THOR+ rating. And that 3 percentage point bump came mainly from a dominant defensive performance in which Ohio State allowed Illinois to score only 3 points the whole game. I figured Ohio State would jump back to #1 in the Big Ten this past weekend because J.T. Barrett was back. Instead, Barrett had a bit of a rough day, but it didn't matter as Ezekiel Elliot continued to quietly be one of the best players in the nation and the defense, again, held the Illini to 3 points. The Buckeyes have really switched things up from last year, where they relied on offense to overcome a shaky defense. This season, the offense has been in search of consistency (mainly in the passing game, as Elliot has been rock-solid running the ball), while the defense has been great. Just like we all expected.

Up Next: at #37 Michigan State

Game Watch Rating: 100

Win Probability: 79%

Projected Score: Ohio State 37, Michigan State 20

2. Michigan #7, 136 THOR+

Rank	Offense	Coach	Passing+	Rushing+	Turnovers	Blocking+	Offense+	PPG vs. Avg.
31	Michigan	Jim Harbaugh	110	95	114	111	119	32.4

Rank	Defense	Coach	Passing+	Rushing+	Turnovers	Pressure+	Defense+	PPGA vs. Avg
2	Michigan	Jim Harbaugh	138	122	62	123	158	12.4

Rank	Special Teams	Coach	Off. Special Teams+	PPG vs. Avg.	Def. Special Teams+	PPGA vs. Avg.	Special Teams+
71	Michigan	Jim Harbaugh	122	4.1	75	4.0	98

Before you take your shots at THOR+ in the comments section, let me explain how Michigan moved up to #7 this week in spite of almost losing to Indiana. First of all, Michigan's THOR+ rating actually went down this week from 138 last week. As I mentioned in the Ohio State paragraph, there were some shakeups this week near the top for THOR+, thanks to the Pac-12's vicious cannibalism and others like Oklahoma State not playing up to their rankings. Michigan's defense played one of their worst games of the season, and their Defense+ rating dropped 6 percentage points, as a result. However, their defense only allowed 3 Indiana touchdowns all afternoon. That's still not bad.

And even with the defense not being its usual vicious self, the offense more than made up for it, as Indiana made Jake Rudock look like Aaron Rodgers. Yes, it was Indiana's defense, but I think we were all a little surprised that Rudock looked that good. I mean, no other Michigan quarterback has ever put up those types of numbers in a single game. And because of his performance, Michigan's Offense+ rating went up 6 percentage points.

After two weeks of facing terrible defenses, though, things get real again for the Wolverines over the final two games. Next comes Penn State's defense and then Ohio State's. This is when I expect Michigan's offense to come back to earth. If that happens to be the case, even adjusting for better opponents over the next couple of weeks, they could still fall back to the teens as their Offense+ rating dips. Of course, I could also be totally wrong. It wouldn't be the first time.

Up Next: at #38 Penn State

Game Watch Rating: 135

Win Probability: 61%

Projected Score: Michigan 23, Penn State 18

3. Iowa #21, 126 THOR+

Rank	Offense	Coach	Passing+	Rushing+	Turnovers	Blocking+	Offense+	PPG vs. Avg.
33	Iowa	Kirk Ferentz	114	108	143	109	118	32.2

Rank	Defense	Coach	Passing+	Rushing+	Turnovers	Pressure+	Defense+	PPGA vs. Avg
16	Iowa	Kirk Ferentz	127	115	133	103	137	17.2

Rank	Special Teams	Coach	Off. Special Teams+	PPG vs. Avg.	Def. Special Teams+	PPGA vs. Avg.	Special Teams+
90	Iowa	Kirk Ferentz	100	3.9	77	4.0	89

Iowa falls to #21 this week due to their defense giving up 5 touchdowns to a Minnesota offense that has been pretty atrocious this season. It was a little worrisome that Iowa's defense failed to make proper adjustments all night long. But give credit where it is due to Matt Limegrover and Tracy Claeys. That was a great offensive game plan. If that continues the rest of the year, Minnesota is much better than their record indicates and it's a better win for Iowa than most national folks will give them credit for.

Anyway, with the defense looking unlike its usually-stingy self, they still made enough stops and the offense more than came to play on Saturday. On a generally stingy Minnesota defense, the Hawkeyes put up 506 yards of total offense and 40 points. The Gophers actually outdid Iowa in yards and points per play, but Iowa's run game (48 attempts at 5.7 yards per carry) helped milk the clock and carry them to victory.

Next up is lowly Purdue. If there was one game on the back end of the schedule that makes us the least nervous, it is probably this one. Of course, Kirk Ferentz will preach all week that his team shouldn't take them lightly—and they shouldn't. But facing Purdue at home should be just what Iowa needs for the defense to get things back in order and for the offense to put another big number on the scoreboard. Iowa should have the Big Ten West officially wrapped up at about 2:30pm this Saturday.

Up Next: vs. #81 Purdue

Game Watch Rating: 73

Win Probability: 79%

Projected Score: Iowa 39, Purdue 19

4. Wisconsin #28, 120 THOR+

Rank	Offense	Coach	Passing+	Rushing+	Turnovers	Blocking+	Offense+	PPG vs. Avg.
75	Wisconsin	Paul Chryst	93	88	124	107	94	26.1

Rank	Defense	Coach	Passing+	Rushing+	Turnovers	Pressure+	Defense+	PPGA vs. Avg
8	Wisconsin	Paul Chryst	135	114	109	107	147	15.0

Rank	Special Teams	Coach	Off. Special Teams+	PPG vs. Avg.	Def. Special Teams+	PPGA vs. Avg.	Special Teams+
20	Wisconsin	Paul Chryst	118	4.1	135	3.5	126

Coming off a bye, Wisconsin has a week to get healthy and prepare for Northwestern. The week off probably came at the best time for running back, Corey Clement, who missed most of the season, came back for one game against Rutgers and then sat out the next week vs. Maryland. Will he be healthy for this weekend's game against the Wildcats? Well, he is expected to fully participate in practice this week. That would seem like a good sign. Even without him, I do think Wisconsin can win this game. Northwestern's offense is so bad that a Corey Clement-less offense can probably hang with the Wildcats, especially with how good the Badger defense is. But, without Clement, the margin of error for Wisconsin is likely smaller. Having to rely on Joel Stave for more than 20 passes per game really raises the odds of a back-breaking interception. And turnovers could make or break a low-scoring affair like this one is expected to be.

Up Next: vs. #69 Northwestern

Game Watch Rating: 100

Win Probability: 72%

Projected Score: Wisconsin 21, Northwestern 11

5. Michigan State #37, 115 THOR+

Rank	Offense	Coach	Passing+	Rushing+	Turnovers	Blocking+	Offense+	PPG vs. Avg.
26	Michigan State	Mark Dantonio	128	86	149	110	120	32.7

Rank	Defense	Coach	Passing+	Rushing+	Turnovers	Pressure+	Defense+	PPGA vs. Avg
48	Michigan State	Mark Dantonio	103	111	140	121	113	22.7

Rank	Special Teams	Coach	Off. Special Teams+	PPG vs. Avg.	Def. Special Teams+	PPGA vs. Avg.	Special Teams+
93	Michigan State	Mark Dantonio	74	3.6	99	3.8	87

Despite Connor Cook getting injured and backup, Tyler O'Connor, playing for a good chunk of the game, Michigan State was able to beat Maryland by 17 points. On a day when the offense was ugly, the defense and the special teams were actually very good. Will Likely was held in check, which is surprising considering how bad Michigan State's return units have looked this season. But the defense was also much improved after getting gashed by Nebraska a week ago. Sure, Maryland isn't much of an offensive threat and they hand out turnovers like candy at Halloween, but this is what you would expect the Spartan defense to do against an offense of this caliber.

Next up is Ohio State. THOR+ doesn't see this game as being particularly close. Michigan State seems to play every team close this year, whether they should or not. I'm thinking this one could be closer than the 17 points projected below.

Up Next: at #5 Ohio State

Game Watch Rating: 100

Win Probability: 21%

Projected Score: Michigan State 20, Ohio State 37

6. Penn State #38, 115 THOR+

Rank	Offense	Coach	Passing+	Rushing+	Turnovers	Blocking+	Offense+	PPG vs. Avg.
72	Penn State	James Franklin	104	102	113	74	96	26.6

Rank	Defense	Coach	Passing+	Rushing+	Turnovers	Pressure+	Defense+	PPGA vs. Avg
18	Penn State	James Franklin	148	97	122	147	136	17.6

Rank	Special Teams	Coach	Off. Special Teams+	PPG vs. Avg.	Def. Special Teams+	PPGA vs. Avg.	Special Teams+
65	Penn State	James Franklin	90	3.8	111	3.7	101

Penn State exits the bye week with the Michigan Wolverines visiting Happy Valley this Saturday. Despite Michigan having the higher rankings, I actually think this is a somewhat favorable match up for the Nittany Lions. Their defense should be good enough to make Jake Rudock look more like Jake Rudock, and Michigan's run game hasn't exactly been amazing this season, so points could be in short supply for Michigan. Of course, points will probably be in short supply for the Nittany Lions as well, whose offense isn't exactly their strength. Toss in the fact that they are playing the #2 ranked defense in the nation, according to THOR+, and I would imagine this should be a low-scoring game. I'm not guaranteeing a Penn State win, but I wouldn't be surprised if this game is close enough that they have a chance to steal one at the end, either.

Up Next: vs. #7 Michigan

Game Watch Rating: 135

Win Probability: 39%

Projected Score: Penn State 18, Michigan 23

7. Nebraska #46, 111 THOR+

Rank	Offense	Coach	Passing+	Rushing+	Turnovers	Blocking+	Offense+	PPG vs. Avg.
30	Nebraska	Mike Riley	107	108	74	110	119	32.5

Rank	Defense	Coach	Passing+	Rushing+	Turnovers	Pressure+	Defense+	PPGA vs. Avg
62	Nebraska	Mike Riley	79	115	67	100	104	24.9

Rank	Special Teams	Coach	Off. Special Teams+	PPG vs. Avg.	Def. Special Teams+	PPGA vs. Avg.	Special Teams+
49	Nebraska	Mike Riley	117	4.1	102	3.8	109

Nebraska was able to hold Leonte Carroo to just 4 catches and 62 yards this past Saturday, and that helped them come away with a 31-14 win in Piscataway. What didn't help them, and what made the game likely closer than it should have been, was Tommy Armstrong Jr. throwing 3 interceptions against a Rutgers secondary that has been just about as bad as Indiana's this season. Rutgers was only down 7 in the third quarter, as a result, but Nebraska was eventually able to pull away and hold onto the win. It wasn't a great win, but a win is a win, and that is doubly so for Nebraska this year. They now have a very late bye week, which gives them time to rest up and prepare for a rivalry game against Iowa. Let's all hope the extra week to prepare doesn't pay off.

Up Next: Bye Week

8. Illinois #67, 103 THOR+

Rank	Offense	Coach	Passing+	Rushing+	Turnovers	Blocking+	Offense+	PPG vs. Avg.
102	Illinois	Bill Cubit	88	102	122	117	78	21.8

Rank	Defense	Coach	Passing+	Rushing+	Turnovers	Pressure+	Defense+	PPGA vs. Avg
25	Illinois	Bill Cubit	118	115	110	123	128	19.3

Rank	Special Teams	Coach	Off. Special Teams+	PPG vs. Avg.	Def. Special Teams+	PPGA vs. Avg.	Special Teams+
34	Illinois	Bill Cubit	125	4.2	106	3.8	115

Week 11 saw the Illini lose an uninspiring game of football, 28-3 to Ohio State. Nobody expected the Illini to win, but this was still a pretty lousy performance, considering that fact. Even with Josh Ferguson, the offense looked awful. Illinois' defense honestly did pretty good to space out Ohio State's touchdowns to one each quarter, but the offense gave them no chance at any point in the game. And things aren't going to get much easier in the coming weeks. Minnesota and Northwestern are left on the schedule, and both of them possess well-above average defenses. Throw in the fact that Minnesota may have figured this whole offense thing out, and the Illini are far from guaranteed to win another game this season.

Up Next: at #72 Minnesota

Game Watch Rating: 151

Win Probability: 46%

Projected Score: Illinois 20, Minnesota 22

9. Northwestern #69, 101 THOR+

Rank	Offense	Coach	Passing+	Rushing+	Turnovers	Blocking+	Offense+	PPG vs. Avg.
119	Northwestern	Pat Fitzgerald	64	100	113	105	58	16.6

Rank	Defense	Coach	Passing+	Rushing+	Turnovers	Pressure+	Defense+	PPGA vs. Avg
12	Northwestern	Pat Fitzgerald	130	116	95	110	144	15.7

Rank	Special Teams	Coach	Off. Special Teams+	PPG vs. Avg.	Def. Special Teams+	PPGA vs. Avg.	Special Teams+
22	Northwestern	Pat Fitzgerald	137	4.3	114	3.7	126

THOR+ continues to dislike Northwestern due to their offensive struggles this season and thinks they have been fairly lucky this season (others are thinking that, too.) That trend continued to be the case against Purdue in week 11, where the Wildcat offense could only muster 3 touchdowns in 72 plays all day. That's a pretty below average performance against a below average Purdue defense. The Northwestern defense, though, continued to do its job and that is how they continue to win games. This defense should be able to keep them within striking distance of Wisconsin this week, but will the offense be able to score any points? Probably not. And, if that's the case, they may need a defensive score or another kick return touchdown by Solomon Vault to propel them to another close win.

Up Next: at #28 Wisconsin

Game Watch Rating: 100

Win Probability: 28%

Projected Score: Northwestern 11, Wisconsin 21

10. Minnesota #72, 99 THOR+

Rank	Offense	Coach	Passing+	Rushing+	Turnovers	Blocking+	Offense+	PPG vs. Avg.
99	Minnesota	Tracy Claeys	105	95	102	127	79	22.2

Rank	Defense	Coach	Passing+	Rushing+	Turnovers	Pressure+	Defense+	PPGA vs. Avg
42	Minnesota	Tracy Claeys	104	116	82	107	118	21.6

Rank	Special Teams	Coach	Off. Special Teams+	PPG vs. Avg.	Def. Special Teams+	PPGA vs. Avg.	Special Teams+
44	Minnesota	Tracy Claeys	105	4.0	117	3.7	111

The question on everybody's mind has to be: Where has that offense been all season? Is this what happens when Matt Limegrover is no longer constrained by Jerry Kill? I mean, earlier this season this offense was content to run guys like Shannon Brooks and Co. into the middle of a stacked box. Lately, though, the Gophers have been using misdirection and play action off the zone read and jet sweep to perfection. And that Shannon Brooks pass to Drew Wolitarsky - as much as it pains me to say it - was pure aesthetic perfection for the football fan who admires the sport as art. The Gophers have looked vastly improved over the last three weeks and have done so against three of the best teams in the conference. If this offense is suddenly fixed, Minnesota has a real chance to win their final two games against Illinois and Wisconsin.

Up Next: vs. #67 Illinois

Game Watch Rating: 151

Win Probability: 54%

Projected Score: Minnesota 22, Illinois 20

11. Maryland #74, 98 THOR+

Rank	Offense	Coach	Passing+	Rushing+	Turnovers	Blocking+	Offense+	PPG vs. Avg.
74	Maryland	Mike Locksley	32	132	0	101	95	26.2

Rank	Defense	Coach	Passing+	Rushing+	Turnovers	Pressure+	Defense+	PPGA vs. Avg
70	Maryland	Mike Locksley	73	122	94	137	99	26.0

Rank	Special Teams	Coach	Off. Special Teams+	PPG vs. Avg.	Def. Special Teams+	PPGA vs. Avg.	Special Teams+
10	Maryland	Mike Locksley	136	4.3	132	3.6	134

We are to the point in the power rankings at which I start to run out of interesting things to say about the teams. Maryland has been playing better lately, but they are still bad. The offense can't decide on a quarterback, and no matter which one is taking snaps - Perry Hills or Caleb Rowe - neither of them can stop giving the ball away. The defense is pretty good up front, but they can't stop the pass to save their lives. Put those two things together and you have a football team that isn't very good. But, who knows, maybe Bill O'Brien can be their savior?

Up Next: vs. #98 Indiana

Game Watch Rating: 129

Win Probability: 63%

Projected Score: Maryland 38, Indiana 30

12. Purdue #81, 95 THOR+

Rank	Offense	Coach	Passing+	Rushing+	Turnovers	Blocking+	Offense+	PPG vs. Avg.
65	Purdue	Darrell Hazell	73	95	72	122	99	27.2

Rank	Defense	Coach	Passing+	Rushing+	Turnovers	Pressure+	Defense+	PPGA vs. Avg
85	Purdue	Darrell Hazell	97	95	111	101	93	27.3

Rank	Special Teams	Coach	Off. Special Teams+	PPG vs. Avg.	Def. Special Teams+	PPGA vs. Avg.	Special Teams+
119	Purdue	Darrell Hazell	25	3.1	99	3.8	62

Purdue hung close with Northwestern this past Saturday, but lost a close game that Purdue fans are putting on the offensive coordinator. The Boilers were in striking distance all game and were actually tied with Northwestern into the 4^th quarter. But the offense ultimately couldn't do enough to win them the game, and Purdue was handed yet another moral victory (if you can even call it that anymore).

Looking forward to this week, though, OMHR is really terrible, you guys (feel the manufactured hate). The only reason they were in the Northwestern game is because the Wildcat offense is so bad. Iowa should be able to move the ball at will through the air and on the ground. The Hawkeye defense should force plenty of 3-and-outs, punts, and turnovers. This should be a game that Iowa controls the time of possession, imposes their will on the team visiting Kinnick, and clinches the Big Ten West. Anything can happen in a (Delaney-imposed) rivalry game, but this should be an easy win for Iowa. I'm not usually this confident - especially when a perfect season is on the line - but I think Iowa is a terrible match up for Purdue. This Saturday should not be pretty for OMHR.

Up Next: at #21 Iowa

Game Watch Rating: 73

Win Probability: 21%

Projected Score: Purdue 19, Iowa 39

13. Indiana #89, 90 THOR+

Rank	Offense	Coach	Passing+	Rushing+	Turnovers	Blocking+	Offense+	PPG vs. Avg.
54	Indiana	Kevin Wilson	128	101	148	131	104	28.6

Rank	Defense	Coach	Passing+	Rushing+	Turnovers	Pressure+	Defense+	PPGA vs. Avg
105	Indiana	Kevin Wilson	53	99	86	99	71	32.3

Rank	Special Teams	Coach	Off. Special Teams+	PPG vs. Avg.	Def. Special Teams+	PPGA vs. Avg.	Special Teams+
11	Indiana	Kevin Wilson	149	4.4	118	3.7	133

Being an Indiana football fan is hard enough, but this year has been a special kind of pain. If you can remember back to September, Indiana was 4-0 and begging College Game Day to visit Bloomington for the showdown with Ohio State. Hoosier fans were feeling good, and despite being 4-0 against mostly bad competition (Western Kentucky is pretty good), I can't blame them. Then Big Ten play started and Hoosier fans have experienced nothing but heartbreaking losses. Probably the only one that didn't yank out their life-giving organ was the Penn State game, and that's because a lack of Nate Sudfeld and Jordan Howard made it so things weren't particularly close. Otherwise, Indiana has hung tough with Ohio State, Michigan State, Iowa, and Michigan. Of course, they also suffered an embarrassing loss to Rutgers in which they blew a huge lead late in the game. Things happen.

On the bright side, the difficult part of the schedule is over now. They finish the regular season with Maryland and Purdue. This is their last chance to get bowl-eligible, and I am actually rooting for them to do it. They have been a fun team to watch this year, and I would love to see Jordan Howard run roughshod over some poor team in a bowl game.

Up Next: at #74 Maryland

Game Watch Rating: 129

Win Probability: 37%

Projected Score: Indiana 30, Maryland 38

14. Rutgers #101, 82 THOR+

Rank	Offense	Coach	Passing+	Rushing+	Turnovers	Blocking+	Offense+	PPG vs. Avg.
78	Rutgers	Kyle Flood	95	111	84	99	93	25.9

Rank	Defense	Coach	Passing+	Rushing+	Turnovers	Pressure+	Defense+	PPGA vs. Avg
112	Rutgers	Kyle Flood	46	110	85	108	64	33.9

Rank	Special Teams	Coach	Off. Special Teams+	PPG vs. Avg.	Def. Special Teams+	PPGA vs. Avg.	Special Teams+
5	Rutgers	Kyle Flood	155	4.5	127	3.6	141

Times may be trying in Bloomington for Indiana fans, but things are doubly worse in Piscataway. The Rutgers football team is pretty horrible in just about all areas that don't utilize Leonte Carroo or the special teams in some way, shape, or form. Fans are doing a March Madness-style bracket to vote on who they would like to be the next coach. The entire vision for the athletic program is being openly questioned, and the blame isn't stopping at the athletic director, it's going all the way to the university president. And, on top of that, THOR+ actually has Army slightly favored in this week's match up against the Scarlet Knights.

Now, ignoring the fact that a non-conference game against a cupcake is stupid this late in the season (looking at you, SEC), this would be rock bottom for Rutgers if they lost to a horrible Army team. The home field advantage is why the projection is the way it is, but I expect Rutgers to beat the Golden Knights. Not because I particularly care about Rutgers football, I just don't want them to embarrass the conference. They should win this game, and they better win this game. Otherwise, the natives won't be restless anymore. They could turn violent.

Up Next: vs. #103 Army

Game Watch Rating: 153

Win Probability: 46%

Projected Score: Rutgers 35, Army 36