BIG TEN WIN PROJECTIONS: POST-WEEK 11

Week 11 almost saw some upsets that could have had some big implications for both Big Ten divisions, but instead the underdogs came up short (thankfully, in our instance) and absolutely nothing changed in regards to division title races. Indiana almost beat Michigan, but lost in two overtimes. Meanwhile, Minnesota gave Iowa all the Hawkeyes could handle, but came up 5 points short. I would say the Michigan game was the closest to being an upset, as Indiana was actually on the verge of winning the game until their defense blew a lead with just a few seconds left in regulation. Iowa, on the other hand, struggled to stop a suddenly potent Minnesota offense, but the Hawkeyes never actually trailed in this contest, and they had multiple opportunities to pull away.

Anyway, there were no big surprises this weekend. All of the favorites won and all of the underdogs lost. THOR+ didn't call for any shockers this week, and thus went 6-0 on the weekend in the Big Ten. That makes THOR+ 71.6% in the Big Ten West this season and 85.3% in the East. Combined, that's 78.5% calling the Big Ten this season, which is higher than the 76% THOR+ has managed for all FBS teams in 2015.

Now, let's talk win projections. Here are the overall projections for each Big Ten team:

THOR+ Rank	B1G West Season Wins	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
21	Iowa	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	11.4%	46.7%	41.9%
28	Wisconsin	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	11.4%	46.2%	42.4%	0.0%	0.0%
46	Nebraska	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	55.0%	45.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
67	Illinois	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	47.2%	52.8%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
69	Northwestern	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	38.4%	47.3%	14.3%	0.0%	0.0%
72	Minnesota	0.0%	0.0%	28.3%	50.0%	21.7%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
81	Purdue	32.0%	55.1%	12.9%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
THOR+ Rank	B1G East Season Wins	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
5	Ohio State	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	12.3%	54.6%	33.1%
7	Michigan	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	17.0%	45.1%	37.9%	0.0%	0.0%
37	Michigan State	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	34.1%	55.1%	10.8%	0.0%
38	Penn State	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	37.2%	47.9%	14.9%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
74	Maryland	17.2%	46.9%	35.9%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
89	Indiana	0.0%	0.0%	37.4%	47.1%	15.5%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
101	Rutgers	0.0%	32.3%	47.3%	20.4%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Here are the conference win projections:

THOR+ Rank	B1G West Conference Wins	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8
21	Iowa	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	11.4%	46.7%	41.9%
28	Wisconsin	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	11.4%	46.2%	42.4%	0.0%
46	Nebraska	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	55.0%	45.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
67	Illinois	0.0%	0.0%	47.2%	52.8%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
69	Northwestern	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	38.4%	47.3%	14.3%	0.0%	0.0%
72	Minnesota	0.0%	28.3%	50.0%	21.7%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
81	Purdue	0.0%	32.0%	55.1%	12.9%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
THOR+ Rank	B1G East Conference Wins	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8
5	Ohio State	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	12.3%	54.6%	33.1%
7	Michigan	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	17.0%	45.1%	37.9%	0.0%
37	Michigan State	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	34.1%	55.1%	10.8%	0.0%
38	Penn State	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	37.2%	47.9%	14.9%	0.0%	0.0%
74	Maryland	17.2%	46.9%	35.9%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
89	Indiana	37.4%	47.1%	15.5%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
101	Rutgers	0.0%	58.5%	41.5%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

With only two games left, our much beloved Hawkeyes are at about 89% odds for at least 11 wins this season. Better yet, Iowa's odds of finishing 11-1 or 12-0 are basically a coin flip at this point. Obviously, the Hawkeyes controls their own destiny and are all but guaranteed to win the West at this point. But week 12 is a big one because Iowa clinches the division with a win against Purdue or a Wisconsin loss to Northwestern. Of course, we much prefer the former to happen, as it would mean Iowa's perfect season would remain intact.

As for the East, Ohio State's defense dominated Illinois and their perfect season is also still going. Their upcoming game with Michigan State this week is huge for the division, as it will determine whether the East remains a 3-team race or if it will dwindle to a 2-team one (assuming Michigan wins this week). If the Spartans can beat the Buckeyes, that would keep them in the hunt for a division title, along with Ohio State and Michigan. But if they lose, a second conference loss would put them officially out of the hunt for the Big Ten East. The same goes for Michigan. If they lose, a second loss would eliminate them from division championship scenarios because Michigan State owns the tie-breaker over them and Ohio State only has the potential for one conference loss if they win this weekend.

So, we could potentially see both Big Ten divisions get wrapped up this Saturday. THOR+ gives that something like 24% odds of happening. More likely, though, is that Iowa will clinch the West with a win over Purdue, while the East will be settled next weekend in Ann Arbor. But, you never know.

At this point, Iowa and Ohio State are the current favorites for each division, which would pit them against each other in the Big Ten Championship if the season were to end right now. Iowa actually moved down a bit this week in THOR+'s eyes after the defense gave up 5 touchdowns to Minnesota, thus Ohio State is currently favored (63%) to win 28-22. Boo.

Finally, here are the mean, min, and max wins for each Big Ten team based on the thousand simulations I ran:

THOR+	B1G West	Mean Wins	Min. Wins	Max. Wins	Mean B1G Wins	Min B1G Wins	Max B1G Wins
21	Iowa	11.3	10	12	7.3	6	8
28	Wisconsin	9.3	8	10	6.3	5	7
46	Nebraska	5.5	5	6	3.5	3	4
67	Illinois	5.5	5	6	2.5	2	3
69	Northwestern	8.8	8	10	4.8	4	6
72	Minnesota	4.9	4	6	1.9	1	3
81	Purdue	2.8	2	4	1.8	1	3
THOR+	B1G East	Mean Wins	Min. Wins	Max. Wins	Mean B1G Wins	Min B1G Wins	Max B1G Wins
5	Ohio State	11.2	10	12	7.2	6	8
7	Michigan	9.2	8	10	6.2	5	7
37	Michigan State	9.8	9	11	5.8	5	7
38	Penn State	7.8	7	9	4.8	4	6
74	Maryland	3.2	2	4	1.2	0	2
89	Indiana	4.8	4	6	0.8	0	2
101	Rutgers	3.9	3	5	1.4	1	2

Big Ten West

Iowa

Date	Iowa	Team	Rank	Projected Win%
9/5	Home	Illinois State	FCS	W
9/12	Away	Iowa State	75	W
9/19	Home	Pittsburgh	47	W
9/26	Home	North Texas	125	W
10/3	Away	Wisconsin	28	W
10/10	Home	Illinois	67	W
10/17	Away	Northwestern	69	W
10/31	Home	Maryland	74	W
11/7	Away	Indiana	89	W
11/14	Home	Minnesota	72	W
11/21	Home	Purdue	81	79%
11/27	Away	Nebraska	46	54%

THOR+ Record: 7-2 (77.8%)

The Hawkeyes should be able to win the West this weekend, but a Black Friday game that pits an 11-0 Iowa against a 5-6 Nebraska, fighting for bowl-eligibility, should be a fantastic game.

Illinois

Date	Illinois	Team	Rank	Projected Win%
9/5	Home	Kent State	114	W
9/12	Home	W. Illinois	FCS	W
9/19	Away	North Carolina	2	L
9/26	Home	Middle Tennessee	79	W
10/3	Home	Nebraska	46	W
10/10	Away	Iowa	21	L
10/24	Home	Wisconsin	28	L
10/31	Away	Penn State	38	L
11/7	Away	Purdue	81	W
11/14	Home	Ohio State	5	L
11/21	Away	Minnesota	72	46%
11/28	Neutral	Northwestern	69	51%

THOR+ Record: 7-2 (77.8%)

Somehow the Illini came up with 7 wins in exactly 0 of the thousand simulations run this week, even though they should have about 23% odds at winning both games against Minnesota and Northwestern, based on their win probabilities. Either way, they probably aren't winning both games. Minnesota looks much improved lately, and Northwestern's defense will make life difficult for a terrible Illinois offense. They just need one win to become bow eligible, however, and THOR+ thinks it is essentially a coin flip on whether that happens or not.

Minnesota

Date	Minnesota	Team	Rank	Projected Win%
9/3	Home	TCU	29	L
9/12	Away	Colorado State	82	W
9/19	Home	Kent State	114	W
9/26	Home	Ohio	92	W
10/3	Away	Northwestern	69	L
10/10	Away	Purdue	81	W
10/17	Home	Nebraska	46	L
10/31	Home	Michigan	7	L
11/7	Away	Ohio State	5	L
11/14	Away	Iowa	21	L
11/21	Home	Illinois	67	54%
11/28	Home	Wisconsin	28	41%

THOR+ Record: 8-2 (80%)

Give credit to Minnesota offensive coordinator, Matt Limegrover, for calling the game of his life this past weekend. Where the hell has that been all year? If that's the Minnesota we see for the next two games, this team could reach 6 wins.

Nebraska

Date	Nebraska	Team	Rank	Projected Win%
9/5	Home	BYU	34	L
9/12	Home	South Alabama	115	W
9/19	Away	Miami (Florida)	66	L
9/26	Home	Southern Mississippi	57	W
10/3	Away	Illinois	67	L
10/10	Home	Wisconsin	28	L
10/17	Away	Minnesota	72	W
10/24	Home	Northwestern	69	L
10/31	Away	Purdue	81	L
11/7	Home	Michigan State	37	W
11/14	Away	Rutgers	101	W
11/28	Home	Iowa	21	46%

THOR+ Record: 8-3 (72.7%)

The Huskers finally have back-to-back wins this season. Now, they sit and wait for Iowa.

Northwestern

Date	Northwestern	Team	Rank	Projected Win%
9/5	Home	Stanford	10	W
9/12	Home	Eastern Illinois	FCS	W
9/19	Away	Duke	58	W
9/26	Home	Ball State	110	W
10/3	Home	Minnesota	72	W
10/10	Away	Michigan	7	L
10/17	Home	Iowa	21	L
10/24	Away	Nebraska	46	W
11/7	Home	Penn State	38	W
11/14	Home	Purdue	81	W
11/21	Away	Wisconsin	28	28%
11/28	Neutral	Illinois	67	49%

THOR+ Record: 5-4 (55.6%)

Northwestern continues to win close games, in spite of possessing a terrible offense. That will likely hurt them this week against Wisconsin's defense and it also has the potential to hurt them against a solid Illinois defense. The path to 10 wins is there, but 9 seems more realistic.

Purdue

Date	Purdue	Team	Rank	Projected Win%
9/6	Away	Marshall	56	L
9/12	Home	Indiana State	FCS	W
9/19	Home	Virginia Tech	61	L
9/26	Home	Bowling Green	26	L
10/3	Away	Michigan State	37	L
10/10	Home	Minnesota	72	L
10/17	Away	Wisconsin	28	L
10/31	Home	Nebraska	46	W
11/7	Home	Illinois	67	L
11/14	Away	Northwestern	69	L
11/21	Away	Iowa	21	21%
11/28	Home	Indiana	89	60%

THOR+ Record: 5-4 (55.6%)

Basketball season is finally here, Boiler fans.

Wisconsin

Date	Wisconsin	Team	Rank	Projected Win%
9/5	Neutral	Alabama	8	L
9/12	Home	Miami (Ohio)	119	W
9/19	Home	Troy	90	W
9/26	Home	Hawai'i	112	W
10/3	Home	Iowa	21	L
10/10	Away	Nebraska	46	W
10/17	Home	Purdue	81	W
10/24	Away	Illinois	67	W
10/31	Home	Rutgers	101	W
11/7	Away	Maryland	74	W
11/21	Home	Northwestern	69	72%
11/28	Away	Minnesota	72	59%

THOR+ Record: 8-2 (80%)

The outcome of Wisconsin's final two games probably hinge on whether or not the offense can actually look competent. And that means the Badgers will need a healthy Corey Clement because relying on Joel Stave to win with his arm just won't get it done against the defenses of Northwestern or Minnesota.

Big Ten East

Indiana

Date	Indiana	Team	Rank	Projected Win%
9/5	Home	S. Illinois	FCS	W
9/12	Home	Florida International	100	W
9/19	Home	Western Kentucky	45	W
9/26	Away	Wake Forest	93	W
10/3	Home	Ohio State	5	L
10/10	Away	Penn State	38	L
10/17	Home	Rutgers	101	L
10/24	Away	Michigan State	37	L
11/7	Home	Iowa	21	L
11/14	Home	Michigan	7	L
11/21	Away	Maryland	74	37%
11/28	Away	Purdue	81	40%

THOR+ Record: 6-3 (66.7%)

Indiana is finally through the rough part of their conference schedule. If they were ever going to reach bowl-eligibility, now would be the time. Well, and that Rutgers game they pissed away. Imagine how good this team could be if they had an actual defense.

Maryland

Date	Maryland	Team	Rank	Projected Win%
9/5	Home	Richmond	FCS	W
9/12	Home	Bowling Green	26	L
9/19	Home	South Florida	35	W
9/26	Away	West Virginia	31	L
10/3	Home	Michigan	7	L
10/10	Away	Ohio State	5	L
10/24	Neutral	Penn State	38	L
10/31	Away	Iowa	21	L
11/7	Home	Wisconsin	28	L
11/14	Away	Michigan State	37	L
11/21	Home	Indiana	89	63%
11/28	Away	Rutgers	101	56%

THOR+ Record: 8-1 (88.9%)

Maryland is also through the hardest part of their schedule, but they have no bowl hopes. They are playing better lately, but they still have historically bad turnover issues and they haven't won since September. But, hey, they are playing better.

Michigan

Date	Michigan	Team	Rank	Projected Win%
9/3	Away	Utah	24	L
9/12	Home	Oregon State	102	W
9/19	Home	UNLV	91	W
9/26	Home	BYU	34	W
10/3	Away	Maryland	74	W
10/10	Home	Northwestern	69	W
10/17	Home	Michigan State	37	L
10/31	Away	Minnesota	72	W
11/7	Home	Rutgers	101	W
11/14	Away	Indiana	89	W
11/21	Away	Penn State	38	61%
11/28	Home	Ohio State	5	59%

THOR+ Record: 9-1 (90%)

In order to win the East, Michigan needs a bit of help. They need to win out, of course, because a 2-loss Michigan can't win the division. But they also need Michigan State to lose one more game. If Ohio State wins this weekend, that would mean The Big House would effectively host the Big Ten East Championship in week 13. If Michigan State beats Ohio State, though, the Wolverines would need to beat the Buckeyes and pray that Penn State can beat the Spartans.

Michigan State

Date	Michigan State	Team	Rank	Projected Win%
9/4	Away	Western Michigan	80	W
9/12	Home	Oregon	30	W
9/19	Home	Air Force	70	W
9/26	Home	Central Michigan	73	W
10/3	Home	Purdue	81	W
10/10	Away	Rutgers	101	W
10/17	Away	Michigan	7	W
10/24	Home	Indiana	89	W
11/7	Away	Nebraska	46	L
11/14	Home	Maryland	74	W
11/21	Away	Ohio State	5	21%
11/28	Home	Penn State	38	58%

THOR+ Record: 9-1 (90%)

Michigan State's road to Indianapolis is a bit more straight-forward: Win and they are in. The Spartans control their own destiny, as winning their final two games would mean a 1-loss MSU would own tie-breakers over Ohio State and Michigan. If they lose this week, though, they are officially eliminated because Ohio State would only have the potential for one loss.

Ohio State

Date	Ohio State	Team	Rank	Projected Win%
9/7	Away	Virginia Tech	61	W
9/12	Home	Hawai'i	112	W
9/19	Home	Northern Illinois	53	W
9/26	Home	Western Michigan	80	W
10/3	Away	Indiana	89	W
10/10	Home	Maryland	74	W
10/17	Home	Penn State	38	W
10/24	Away	Rutgers	101	W
11/7	Home	Minnesota	72	W
11/14	Away	Illinois	67	W
11/21	Home	Michigan State	37	79%
11/28	Away	Michigan	7	41%

THOR+ Record: 10-0 (100%)

Ohio State is still the team to beat, though. It helps when you haven't lost any games.

Penn State

Date	Penn State	Team	Rank	Projected Win%
9/5	Away	Temple	41	L
9/12	Home	Buffalo	98	W
9/19	Home	Rutgers	101	W
9/26	Home	San Diego State	64	W
10/3	Home	Army	103	W
10/10	Home	Indiana	89	W
10/17	Away	Ohio State	5	L
10/24	Neutral	Maryland	74	W
10/31	Home	Illinois	67	W
11/7	Away	Northwestern	69	L
11/21	Home	Michigan	7	39%
11/28	Away	Michigan State	37	42%

THOR+ Record: 9-1 (90%)

For whatever reason, I feel like Penn State is going to catch one of the Michigan teams sleeping and pull an upset. Jake Rudock shouldn't look like Aaron Rodgers this week against an actual defense and Michigan State is dangerously attracted to close games this season. I'm not sure which opponent it could be, but don't be surprised if Penn State does get to 8 wins.

Rutgers

Date	Rutgers	Team	Rank	Projected Win%
9/5	Home	Norfolk State	FCS	W
9/12	Home	Washington State	49	L
9/19	Away	Penn State	38	L
9/26	Home	Kansas	113	W
10/10	Home	Michigan State	37	L
10/17	Away	Indiana	89	W
10/24	Home	Ohio State	5	L
10/31	Away	Wisconsin	28	L
11/7	Away	Michigan	7	L
11/14	Home	Nebraska	46	L
11/21	Away	Army	103	46%
11/28	Home	Maryland	74	44%

THOR+ Record: 7-2 (77.8%)

Home field advantage is actually favoring Army over Rutgers this weekend... I know Rutgers is bad at football and everything,  but Army is absolutely horrible at it. I'm expecting THOR+ to get this one wrong and expecting Leonte Carroo to have an absolute heyday.