2015 BIG TEN WIN PROJECTIONS: POST-WEEK 8

A week after switching things up by going perfect in the Big Ten West, THOR+ decided to go back to business as usual this week and pick the East perfectly while missing both games in the West. Obviously, the games in the East were a little easier to call in week 8, as Ohio State and Michigan State -- teams who both possess very good offenses -- faced off against defense-optional teams in Rutgers and Indiana. Penn State did have its share of trouble with Maryland, but they eventually pulled out the win in the end.

Predictably, it was the Big Ten West that was less predictable. THOR+ called for one upset this week, and missed on it when Wisconsin handled Illinois with ease. Instead, the lone upset this weekend came when Northwestern got back on track and beat the favored Huskers in Lincoln.

With a 3-2 record in week 8, THOR+ has now been right 84% of the time in the Big Ten East and 71% of the time for the Big Ten West teams this year. If you are wondering how that compares to how THOR+ has done nationally this season, week 8 was nice enough to help push THOR+ up to 76% for all FBS teams in 2015.

To the win projections!

First, here are the 12-game season projections for all Big Ten teams.

THOR+ Rank	B1G West Season Wins	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
13	Iowa	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.7%	5.6%	21.8%	43.2%	28.7%
38	Wisconsin	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	1.1%	9.0%	32.1%	38.3%	19.5%	0.0%	0.0%
41	Nebraska	0.0%	0.0%	4.5%	19.3%	37.6%	29.8%	8.8%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
50	Illinois	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	7.5%	29.3%	35.3%	22.1%	5.8%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
60	Northwestern	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	7.0%	25.8%	39.2%	23.5%	4.5%	0.0%	0.0%
78	Minnesota	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	19.1%	38.3%	30.9%	10.0%	1.7%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
79	Purdue	5.5%	25.6%	37.5%	23.3%	7.6%	0.5%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
THOR+ Rank	B1G East Season Wins	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
8	Ohio State	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	6.9%	25.7%	46.3%	20.9%
12	Michigan	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	2.1%	11.3%	29.0%	39.7%	17.9%	0.0%	0.0%
42	Michigan State	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	4.9%	27.6%	39.4%	25.0%	3.1%
54	Penn State	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	10.6%	30.7%	36.3%	18.7%	3.7%	0.0%	0.0%
84	Maryland	0.0%	7.0%	26.6%	38.7%	22.7%	4.8%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
88	Rutgers	0.0%	0.0%	8.8%	30.6%	34.1%	21.9%	4.3%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
89	Indiana	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	21.9%	43.1%	26.4%	8.2%	0.4%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

And here are the conference projections for all Big Ten teams.

THOR+ Rank	B1G West Conference Wins	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8
13	Iowa	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.7%	5.6%	21.8%	43.2%	28.7%
38	Wisconsin	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	1.1%	9.0%	32.1%	38.3%	19.5%	0.0%
41	Nebraska	0.0%	4.5%	19.3%	37.6%	29.8%	8.8%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
50	Illinois	0.0%	7.5%	29.3%	35.3%	22.1%	5.8%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
60	Northwestern	0.0%	0.0%	7.0%	25.8%	39.2%	23.5%	4.5%	0.0%	0.0%
78	Minnesota	0.0%	19.1%	38.3%	30.9%	10.0%	1.7%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
79	Purdue	5.5%	25.6%	37.5%	23.3%	7.6%	0.5%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
THOR+ Rank	B1G East Conference Wins	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8
8	Ohio State	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	6.9%	25.7%	46.3%	20.9%
12	Michigan	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	2.1%	11.3%	29.0%	39.7%	17.9%	0.0%
42	Michigan State	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	4.9%	27.6%	39.4%	25.0%	3.1%
54	Penn State	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	10.6%	30.7%	36.3%	18.7%	3.7%	0.0%
84	Maryland	7.0%	26.6%	38.7%	22.7%	4.8%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
88	Rutgers	0.0%	17.2%	41.1%	32.8%	8.4%	0.5%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
89	Indiana	21.9%	43.1%	26.4%	8.2%	0.4%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

With Iowa on the bye in week 8, Wisconsin carved out a spot as the clear #2 team in the West division when they beat the Fighting Illini, 24-13. Their win pushed Illinois into the dangerous 2-loss territory, while Northwestern's win over Nebraska kept them in ever-so-slight contention for at least one more week.

In the East, Ohio State continues to be the favorite to take the division crown. Handing J.T. Barrett the keys to the offense has boosted their offensive numbers in the past week, which has subsequently shot them up to first place in the conference, according to THOR+. Also, subsequently, THOR+ has changed the projection of the potential Big Ten Championship. Instead of liking the Hawkeyes by a smidge, Ohio State is now favored over Iowa, 24-23 with a 54% win probability. Boo.

Now, here are the mean, min, and max projected wins for each Big Ten team based on the thousand simulations I ran.

THOR+	B1G West	Mean Wins	Min. Wins	Max. Wins	Mean B1G Wins	Min B1G Wins	Max B1G Wins
13	Iowa	10.9	8	12	6.9	4	8
38	Wisconsin	8.7	6	10	5.7	3	7
41	Nebraska	5.2	3	7	3.2	1	5
50	Illinois	5.9	4	8	2.9	1	5
60	Northwestern	7.9	6	10	3.9	2	6
78	Minnesota	5.4	4	8	2.4	1	5
79	Purdue	3.0	1	6	2.0	0	5
THOR+	B1G East	Mean Wins	Min. Wins	Max. Wins	Mean B1G Wins	Min B1G Wins	Max B1G Wins
8	Ohio State	10.8	8	12	6.8	4	8
12	Michigan	8.6	6	10	5.6	3	7
42	Michigan State	9.9	8	12	5.9	4	8
54	Penn State	7.7	6	10	4.7	3	7
84	Maryland	3.9	2	7	1.9	0	5
88	Rutgers	4.8	3	8	2.3	1	5
89	Indiana	5.2	4	8	1.2	0	4

Lastly, don't forget that the "THOR+ Record" down below indicates how well THOR+ has done picking the outcome of each FBS game for every team.

Big Ten West

Iowa

Date	Iowa	Team	Rank	Projected Win%
9/5	Home	Illinois State	FCS	W
9/12	Away	Iowa State	70	W
9/19	Home	Pittsburgh	48	W
9/26	Home	North Texas	126	W
10/3	Away	Wisconsin	38	W
10/10	Home	Illinois	50	W
10/17	Away	Northwestern	60	W
10/31	Home	Maryland	84	85%
11/7	Away	Indiana	89	77%
11/14	Home	Minnesota	78	85%
11/21	Home	Purdue	79	85%
11/27	Away	Nebraska	41	60%

THOR+ Record: 4-2 (66.7%)

One game at a time.

Illinois

Date	Illinois	Team	Rank	Projected Win%
9/5	Home	Kent State	114	W
9/12	Home	W. Illinois	FCS	W
9/19	Away	North Carolina	11	L
9/26	Home	Middle Tennessee	73	W
10/3	Home	Nebraska	41	W
10/10	Away	Iowa	13	L
10/24	Home	Wisconsin	38	L
10/31	Away	Penn State	54	45%
11/7	Away	Purdue	79	54%
11/14	Home	Ohio State	8	33%
11/21	Away	Minnesota	78	54%
11/28	Neutral	Northwestern	60	54%

THOR+ Record: 5-1 (83.3%)

Illinois' loss to Wisconsin didn't technically take them out of contention in the Big Ten West, but it pretty much did. At this point, the Illini would need Iowa and Wisconsin to finish with three conference losses and they would need to win their remaining 5 games. And considering one of those remaining games is against Ohio State, I think it's safe to say that they won't be winning the Big Ten West this season.

Minnesota

Date	Minnesota	Team	Rank	Projected Win%
9/3	Home	TCU	15	L
9/12	Away	Colorado State	76	W
9/19	Home	Kent State	114	W
9/26	Home	Ohio	87	W
10/3	Away	Northwestern	60	L
10/10	Away	Purdue	79	W
10/17	Home	Nebraska	41	L
10/31	Home	Michigan	12	26%
11/7	Away	Ohio State	8	13%
11/14	Away	Iowa	13	15%
11/21	Home	Illinois	50	46%
11/28	Home	Wisconsin	38	40%

THOR+ Record: 5-2 (71.4%)

Thanks to the impossibility of losing to the bye week, Minnesota is also still technically in the chase for the West. That shouldn't last much longer, though, as their schedule of death really kicks into full gear over the next month.

Nebraska

Date	Nebraska	Team	Rank	Projected Win%
9/5	Home	BYU	35	L
9/12	Home	South Alabama	115	W
9/19	Away	Miami (Florida)	68	L
9/26	Home	Southern Mississippi	72	W
10/3	Away	Illinois	50	L
10/10	Home	Wisconsin	38	L
10/17	Away	Minnesota	78	W
10/24	Home	Northwestern	60	L
10/31	Away	Purdue	79	58%
11/7	Home	Michigan State	42	58%
11/14	Away	Rutgers	88	61%
11/28	Home	Iowa	13	40%

THOR+ Record: 6-2 (75%)

Sitting at 3-5 overall and 1-3 in the conference, Nebraska's dreams of winning the West are now officially dead. And, you know what? Maybe getting that third Big Ten loss out of the way early was a good thing for the Huskers. Now they can focus on their other important goal: trying to obtain bowl-eligibility. I know I always find that it's easier to accomplish something when I set my sights on one clear goal. Maybe Mike Riley is a genius, after all.

But, in all seriousness, Nebraska will be sitting at home this Christmas if they can't find a way to beat one of Iowa or Michigan State.

Northwestern

Date	Northwestern	Team	Rank	Projected Win%
9/5	Home	Stanford	6	W
9/12	Home	Eastern Illinois	FCS	W
9/19	Away	Duke	28	W
9/26	Home	Ball State	110	W
10/3	Home	Minnesota	78	W
10/10	Away	Michigan	12	L
10/17	Home	Iowa	13	L
10/24	Away	Nebraska	41	W
11/7	Home	Penn State	54	55%
11/14	Home	Purdue	79	64%
11/21	Away	Wisconsin	38	33%
11/28	Neutral	Illinois	50	46%

THOR+ Record: 4-3 (57.1%)

THOR+ has Northwestern pegged as an 8-win team right now. And with how bad their offense is this year, I would agree with that projection. They do still have a chance at the division if Iowa finds a way to lose three games, though. So, dare to dream, I guess.

Purdue

Date	Purdue	Team	Rank	Projected Win%
9/6	Away	Marshall	63	L
9/12	Home	Indiana State	FCS	W
9/19	Home	Virginia Tech	58	L
9/26	Home	Bowling Green	44	L
10/3	Away	Michigan State	42	L
10/10	Home	Minnesota	78	L
10/17	Away	Wisconsin	38	L
10/31	Home	Nebraska	41	42%
11/7	Home	Illinois	50	46%
11/14	Away	Northwestern	60	36%
11/21	Away	Iowa	13	15%
11/28	Home	Indiana	89	61%

THOR+ Record: 4-2 (66.7%)

I'm not sure why I haven't asked this yet until now, but: will Purdue beat an FBS team this year? Honest question. Let me know what you think and who you think their first victim may be.

Wisconsin

Date	Wisconsin	Team	Rank	Projected Win%
9/5	Neutral	Alabama	17	L
9/12	Home	Miami (Ohio)	121	W
9/19	Home	Troy	94	W
9/26	Home	Hawai'i	104	W
10/3	Home	Iowa	13	L
10/10	Away	Nebraska	41	W
10/17	Home	Purdue	79	W
10/24	Away	Illinois	50	W
10/31	Home	Rutgers	88	76%
11/7	Away	Maryland	84	61%
11/21	Home	Northwestern	60	67%
11/28	Away	Minnesota	78	60%

THOR+ Record: 6-2 (75%)

With another Wisconsin win, their odds of losing again continue to dwindle. Ideally, I would love for them to win out and for Iowa to finish undefeated, helping make Iowa's 12-0 look better. Of course, with 5 games left, I'm still worried about Iowa dropping a couple. So, with that in mind, I wouldn't shed a tear if Wisconsin fell into that 2-loss tier at some point.

Big Ten East

Indiana

Date	Indiana	Team	Rank	Projected Win%
9/5	Home	S. Illinois	FCS	W
9/12	Home	Florida International	82	W
9/19	Home	Western Kentucky	43	W
9/26	Away	Wake Forest	97	W
10/3	Home	Ohio State	8	L
10/10	Away	Penn State	54	L
10/17	Home	Rutgers	88	L
10/24	Away	Michigan State	42	L
11/7	Home	Iowa	13	23%
11/14	Home	Michigan	12	23%
11/21	Away	Maryland	84	39%
11/28	Away	Purdue	79	39%

THOR+ Record: 4-3 (57.1%)

Indiana went from starting 4-0 to being on the cusp of missing a bowl game. If they do miss the post season, does Kevin Wilson keep his job?

Maryland

Date	Maryland	Team	Rank	Projected Win%
9/5	Home	Richmond	FCS	W
9/12	Home	Bowling Green	44	L
9/19	Home	South Florida	45	W
9/26	Away	West Virginia	36	L
10/3	Home	Michigan	12	L
10/10	Away	Ohio State	8	L
10/24	Neutral	Penn State	54	L
10/31	Away	Iowa	13	15%
11/7	Home	Wisconsin	38	39%
11/14	Away	Michigan State	42	28%
11/21	Home	Indiana	89	61%
11/28	Away	Rutgers	88	46%

THOR+ Record: 5-1 (83.3%)

THOR+ is giving Maryland a 5% chance of reaching bowl-eligibility. Honestly, that seems high to me.

Michigan

Date	Michigan	Team	Rank	Projected Win%
9/3	Away	Utah	21	L
9/12	Home	Oregon State	103	W
9/19	Home	UNLV	80	W
9/26	Home	BYU	35	W
10/3	Away	Maryland	84	W
10/10	Home	Northwestern	60	W
10/17	Home	Michigan State	42	L
10/31	Away	Minnesota	78	74%
11/7	Home	Rutgers	88	86%
11/14	Away	Indiana	89	77%
11/21	Away	Penn State	54	66%
11/28	Home	Ohio State	8	57%

THOR+ Record: 6-1 (85.7%)

Michigan needs to win out to keep their division hopes alive. It's certainly possible, but, thanks to those last two games, it's definitely not guaranteed.

Michigan State

Date	Michigan State	Team	Rank	Projected Win%
9/4	Away	Western Michigan	81	W
9/12	Home	Oregon	64	W
9/19	Home	Air Force	86	W
9/26	Home	Central Michigan	75	W
10/3	Home	Purdue	79	W
10/10	Away	Rutgers	88	W
10/17	Away	Michigan	12	W
10/24	Home	Indiana	89	W
11/7	Away	Nebraska	41	42%
11/14	Home	Maryland	84	72%
11/21	Away	Ohio State	8	22%
11/28	Home	Penn State	54	63%

THOR+ Record: 7-1 (87.5%)

Michigan State is still undefeated and will remain so for at least one more week.

Ohio State

Date	Ohio State	Team	Rank	Projected Win%
9/7	Away	Virginia Tech	58	W
9/12	Home	Hawai'i	104	W
9/19	Home	Northern Illinois	53	W
9/26	Home	Western Michigan	81	W
10/3	Away	Indiana	89	W
10/10	Home	Maryland	84	W
10/17	Home	Penn State	54	W
10/24	Away	Rutgers	88	W
11/7	Home	Minnesota	78	87%
11/14	Away	Illinois	50	67%
11/21	Home	Michigan State	42	78%
11/28	Away	Michigan	12	43%

THOR+ Record: 8-0 (100%)

What happens if Ohio State beats Michigan State (and Minnesota and Illinois), but loses to 1-conference loss Michigan? I am not an expert on tiebreakers, so I'm really curious as to who would win this chaos.

Penn State

Date	Penn State	Team	Rank	Projected Win%
9/5	Away	Temple	25	L
9/12	Home	Buffalo	105	W
9/19	Home	Rutgers	88	W
9/26	Home	San Diego State	74	W
10/3	Home	Army	101	W
10/10	Home	Indiana	89	W
10/17	Away	Ohio State	8	L
10/24	Neutral	Maryland	84	W
10/31	Home	Illinois	50	55%
11/7	Away	Northwestern	60	45%
11/21	Home	Michigan	12	34%
11/28	Away	Michigan State	42	37%

THOR+ Record: 8-0 (100%)

Penn State could legitimately lose their final 4 games.

Rutgers

Date	Rutgers	Team	Rank	Projected Win%
9/5	Home	Norfolk State	FCS	W
9/12	Home	Washington State	66	L
9/19	Away	Penn State	54	L
9/26	Home	Kansas	116	W
10/10	Home	Michigan State	42	L
10/17	Away	Indiana	89	W
10/24	Home	Ohio State	8	L
10/31	Away	Wisconsin	38	24%
11/7	Away	Michigan	12	14%
11/14	Home	Nebraska	41	39%
11/21	Away	Army	101	51%
11/28	Home	Maryland	84	54%

THOR+ Record: 4-2 (66.7%)

The win over Indiana was fun while it lasted.