2015 BIG TEN WIN PROJECTIONS: POST-WEEK 6

Week 6 is now over and some things have changed within the Big Ten conference. Mainly in the West, of course, where Iowa extended their unbeaten streak to 6 games and is now the only unblemished team left in their division. Wisconsin did keep their Big Ten West dreams alive, however, as they delivered the Huskers another heart-breaking, late game loss. Nebraska is now, subsequently, right on that dangerous two-loss ledge, where they are likely going to have to win out to stay in the race for the West. Meanwhile, Northwestern got hammered by Michigan, but are still fine with only one loss and the opportunity to hand the Hawkeyes their first one this week. Oh, and Illinois and Minnesota are still alive with only one conference loss.

In the East, there are still 4 undefeated teams in conference play. That will be reduced to two after this weekend, as Michigan battles in-state rivals Michigan State and Ohio State faces off against Penn State.

Let's look at the win projections, shall we?

THOR+ Rank	B1G West Season Wins	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
21	Iowa	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.5%	5.5%	17.6%	31.7%	31.5%	13.2%
39	Wisconsin	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.3%	2.5%	10.2%	25.6%	33.2%	22.8%	5.4%	0.0%	0.0%
42	Nebraska	0.0%	1.0%	5.1%	14.5%	31.6%	29.3%	15.8%	2.7%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
46	Northwestern	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	1.4%	8.1%	23.4%	33.0%	23.2%	9.4%	1.5%	0.0%
50	Illinois	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	3.9%	17.3%	30.6%	29.8%	14.9%	3.5%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
72	Minnesota	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	7.9%	25.4%	33.3%	23.7%	7.5%	1.8%	0.4%	0.0%	0.0%
90	Purdue	6.9%	21.3%	36.8%	23.5%	9.1%	2.3%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
THOR+ Rank	B1G East Season Wins	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
5	Michigan	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	2.0%	9.0%	26.4%	40.4%	22.0%	0.0%
27	Ohio State	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.3%	2.3%	12.0%	27.6%	32.8%	20.9%	4.1%
47	Penn State	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	2.3%	14.1%	29.9%	29.5%	18.3%	5.4%	0.5%	0.0%
49	Michigan State	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	1.2%	9.6%	24.5%	35.6%	22.1%	6.2%	0.8%
86	Maryland	0.0%	4.9%	20.7%	32.9%	27.5%	11.5%	2.3%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
87	Rutgers	0.0%	3.4%	17.2%	32.7%	25.3%	15.9%	4.7%	0.8%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
92	Indiana	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	6.3%	25.4%	36.5%	21.6%	8.2%	1.8%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%

Those are the total win projections for the season. Here are the conference ones:

THOR+ Rank	B1G West Conference Wins	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8
21	Iowa	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.5%	5.5%	17.6%	31.7%	31.5%	13.2%
39	Wisconsin	0.0%	0.3%	2.5%	10.2%	25.6%	33.2%	22.8%	5.4%	0.0%
42	Nebraska	1.0%	5.1%	14.5%	31.6%	29.3%	15.8%	2.7%	0.0%	0.0%
46	Northwestern	0.0%	1.4%	8.1%	23.4%	33.0%	23.2%	9.4%	1.5%	0.0%
50	Illinois	0.0%	3.9%	17.3%	30.6%	29.8%	14.9%	3.5%	0.0%	0.0%
72	Minnesota	0.0%	7.9%	25.4%	33.3%	23.7%	7.5%	1.8%	0.4%	0.0%
90	Purdue	6.9%	21.3%	36.8%	23.5%	9.1%	2.3%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
THOR+ Rank	B1G East Conference Wins	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8
5	Michigan	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	2.0%	9.0%	26.4%	40.4%	22.0%
27	Ohio State	0.0%	0.0%	0.3%	2.3%	12.0%	27.6%	32.8%	20.9%	4.1%
47	Penn State	0.0%	0.0%	2.3%	14.1%	29.9%	29.5%	18.3%	5.4%	0.5%
49	Michigan State	0.0%	0.0%	1.2%	9.6%	24.5%	35.6%	22.1%	6.2%	0.8%
86	Maryland	4.9%	20.7%	32.9%	27.5%	11.5%	2.3%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%
87	Rutgers	6.4%	24.9%	36.2%	21.6%	9.2%	1.6%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
92	Indiana	6.3%	25.4%	36.5%	21.6%	8.2%	1.8%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%

The West is pretty clearly Iowa's to lose until they actually, you know, lose. Their odds at going 12-0 actually decreased a bit from last week because they went from likely being way over-ranked at #10 by THOR+ to a more appropriate (in my eyes) #21 this week. But their game against Northwestern on Saturday will likely have pretty big ramifications for the West. If Iowa wins, their odds at winning the conference take a huge jump. If they lose, this will become a real multi-team struggle for the division title.

As for the East, it is still wide open, but Michigan is playing the best football of any team in the Big Ten right now. They are pretty clearly the favorite, but there are still 3 other teams with no conference losses in the East that could increase their chances of a division championship with wins this weekend.

For now, though, the early favorites to play for a Big Ten Championship are Iowa and Michigan. If that game were to be played today, THOR+ would give Michigan a 63% chance of winning and projects a final score of 20-13. Whatever.

Here are the mean, min, and max wins for each team based on the thousand simulations run.

THOR+	B1G West	Mean Wins	Min. Wins	Max. Wins	Mean B1G Wins	Min B1G Wins	Max B1G Wins
21	Iowa	10.3	7	12	6.3	3	8
39	Wisconsin	7.8	4	10	4.8	1	7
42	Nebraska	5.4	2	8	3.4	0	6
46	Northwestern	8.0	5	11	4.0	1	7
50	Illinois	6.4	4	9	3.4	1	6
72	Minnesota	6.0	4	10	3.0	1	7
90	Purdue	3.1	1	7	2.1	0	6
THOR+	B1G East	Mean Wins	Min. Wins	Max. Wins	Mean B1G Wins	Min B1G Wins	Max B1G Wins
5	Michigan	9.7	6	11	6.7	3	8
27	Ohio State	9.7	6	12	5.7	2	8
47	Penn State	7.7	5	11	4.7	2	8
49	Michigan State	8.9	6	12	4.9	2	8
86	Maryland	4.3	2	8	2.3	0	6
87	Rutgers	4.5	2	8	2.1	0	6
92	Indiana	6.1	4	10	2.1	0	6

Lastly,  before I move to the individual team schedules, I should give you the weekly update on how THOR+ is doing picking the Big Ten. THOR+ picked every game right except Minnesota vs. Purdue in week 6. On the season, it has picked 81.6% of Big Ten games correctly, which is slightly better than the 76.9% it has been in all FBS games in 2015. However, that is thanks largely to the Big Ten East, where THOR+ has called 89.5% of all games correctly, while only hitting 73.7% of the Big Ten West games on the mark. Remember, the listed "THOR+ Record" under each team tells you how well THOR+ has done picking wins and losses for that team.

Big Ten West

Iowa

Date	Iowa	Team	Rank	Projected Win%
9/5	Home	Illinois State	FCS	W
9/12	Away	Iowa State	76	W
9/19	Home	Pittsburgh	38	W
9/26	Home	North Texas	128	W
10/3	Away	Wisconsin	39	W
10/10	Home	Illinois	50	W
10/17	Away	Northwestern	46	57%
10/31	Home	Maryland	86	82%
11/7	Away	Indiana	92	74%
11/14	Home	Minnesota	72	78%
11/21	Home	Purdue	90	83%
11/27	Away	Nebraska	42	54%

THOR+ Record: 3-2 (60%)

Injuries or not, Iowa's odds of finishing with 10 or 11 wins are essentially equal at this point with a 13% chance of going undefeated. Considering the Northwestern game is only a 57% win probability, if the Hawkeyes find a way to win on the road this weekend, next week's win projections should favor 11 wins with a better chance at 12-0. New Kirk Ferentz can barely contain his excitement.

Illinois

Date	Illinois	Team	Rank	Projected Win%
9/5	Home	Kent State	112	W
9/12	Home	W. Illinois	FCS	W
9/19	Away	North Carolina	17	L
9/26	Home	Middle Tennessee	56	W
10/3	Home	Nebraska	42	W
10/10	Away	Iowa	21	L
10/24	Home	Wisconsin	39	52%
10/31	Away	Penn State	47	42%
11/7	Away	Purdue	90	58%
11/14	Home	Ohio State	27	44%
11/21	Away	Minnesota	72	50.4%
11/28	Neutral	Northwestern	46	49%

THOR+ Record: 5-0 (100%)

Illinois is technically still in the race for the West, but a remaining schedule full of coin flips doesn't exactly make their likelihood of winning the division all that great.

Minnesota

Date	Minnesota	Team	Rank	Projected Win%
9/3	Home	TCU	14	L
9/12	Away	Colorado State	83	W
9/19	Home	Kent State	112	W
9/26	Home	Ohio	44	W
10/3	Away	Northwestern	46	L
10/10	Away	Purdue	90	W
10/17	Home	Nebraska	42	46%
10/31	Home	Michigan	5	25%
11/7	Away	Ohio State	27	24%
11/14	Away	Iowa	21	22%
11/21	Home	Illinois	50	49.6%
11/28	Home	Wisconsin	39	44%

THOR+ Record: 4-2 (66.7%)

Minnesota is 4-2 on the year. It doesn't feel like that's the case. But, alas, they are. Unfortunately, Purdue was the last really bad team left on their schedule. It's now sink or swim time for the Gophers' season.

Nebraska

Date	Nebraska	Team	Rank	Projected Win%
9/5	Home	BYU	52	L
9/12	Home	South Alabama	117	W
9/19	Away	Miami (Florida)	53	L
9/26	Home	Southern Mississippi	79	W
10/3	Away	Illinois	50	L
10/10	Home	Wisconsin	39	L
10/17	Away	Minnesota	72	54%
10/24	Home	Northwestern	46	60%
10/31	Away	Purdue	90	61%
11/7	Home	Michigan State	49	61%
11/14	Away	Rutgers	87	60%
11/28	Home	Iowa	21	46%

THOR+ Record: 5-1 (83.3%)

Nebraska likely has to win their final 6 games of the season for a chance to win the West. They need to win 4 more to get bowl eligible. Both are technically possible, but far from guaranteed. Purdue and Rutgers should be sure wins, but getting two more from Minnesota, Northwestern, Michigan State, and Iowa will be difficult. LOL.

Northwestern

Date	Northwestern	Team	Rank	Projected Win%
9/5	Home	Stanford	4	W
9/12	Home	Eastern Illinois	FCS	W
9/19	Away	Duke	24	W
9/26	Home	Ball State	100	W
10/3	Home	Minnesota	72	W
10/10	Away	Michigan	5	L
10/17	Home	Iowa	21	43%
10/24	Away	Nebraska	42	40%
11/7	Home	Penn State	47	58%
11/14	Home	Purdue	90	72%
11/21	Away	Wisconsin	39	38%
11/28	Neutral	Illinois	50	51%

THOR+ Record: 3-2 (60%)

Losing to Michigan was expected. Losing 38-0... not so much. I'm just hoping this doesn't motivate Northwestern for this weekend's huge game.

Purdue

Date	Purdue	Team	Rank	Projected Win%
9/6	Away	Marshall	65	L
9/12	Home	Indiana State	FCS	W
9/19	Home	Virginia Tech	51	L
9/26	Home	Bowling Green	66	L
10/3	Away	Michigan State	49	L
10/10	Home	Minnesota	72	L
10/17	Away	Wisconsin	39	25%
10/31	Home	Nebraska	42	39%
11/7	Home	Illinois	50	42%
11/14	Away	Northwestern	46	28%
11/21	Away	Iowa	21	17%
11/28	Home	Indiana	92	60%

THOR+ Record: 3-2 (60%)

So, is it finally time to start asking the question: Does Darrell Hazell survive this season?

Wisconsin

Date	Wisconsin	Team	Rank	Projected Win%
9/5	Neutral	Alabama	10	L
9/12	Home	Miami (Ohio)	115	W
9/19	Home	Troy	102	W
9/26	Home	Hawai'i	105	W
10/3	Home	Iowa	21	L
10/10	Away	Nebraska	42	W
10/17	Home	Purdue	90	75%
10/24	Away	Illinois	50	48%
10/31	Home	Rutgers	87	75%
11/7	Away	Maryland	86	62%
11/21	Home	Northwestern	46	62%
11/28	Away	Minnesota	72	56%

THOR+ Record: 5-1 (83.3%)

Wisconsin kept their division title hopes alive with a last-second field goal in Lincoln. They should be pulling for a Northwestern win this weekend.

Big Ten East

Indiana

Date	Indiana	Team	Rank	Projected Win%
9/5	Home	S. Illinois	FCS	W
9/12	Home	Florida International	73	W
9/19	Home	Western Kentucky	19	W
9/26	Away	Wake Forest	78	W
10/3	Home	Ohio State	27	L
10/10	Away	Penn State	47	L
10/17	Home	Rutgers	87	54%
10/24	Away	Michigan State	49	27%
11/7	Home	Iowa	21	26%
11/14	Home	Michigan	5	18%
11/21	Away	Maryland	86	39%
11/28	Away	Purdue	90	40%

THOR+ Record: 3-2 (60%)

Indiana without Nate Sudfeld and Jordan Howard is as bad as you would expect them to be. I still have no idea how they played Ohio State so close without them.

Maryland

Date	Maryland	Team	Rank	Projected Win%
9/5	Home	Richmond	FCS	W
9/12	Home	Bowling Green	66	L
9/19	Home	South Florida	58	W
9/26	Away	West Virginia	36	L
10/3	Home	Michigan	5	L
10/10	Away	Ohio State	27	L
10/24	Neutral	Penn State	47	36%
10/31	Away	Iowa	21	18%
11/7	Home	Wisconsin	39	38%
11/14	Away	Michigan State	49	30%
11/21	Home	Indiana	92	61%
11/28	Away	Rutgers	87	43%

THOR+ Record: 4-1 (80%)

Randy Edsall is done. Meanwhile, Maryland's season has been done since week 2.

Michigan

Date	Michigan	Team	Rank	Projected Win%
9/3	Away	Utah	26	L
9/12	Home	Oregon State	96	W
9/19	Home	UNLV	70	W
9/26	Home	BYU	52	W
10/3	Away	Maryland	86	W
10/10	Home	Northwestern	46	W
10/17	Home	Michigan State	49	83%
10/31	Away	Minnesota	72	75%
11/7	Home	Rutgers	87	89%
11/14	Away	Indiana	92	82%
11/21	Away	Penn State	47	68%
11/28	Home	Ohio State	27	74%

THOR+ Record: 6-0 (100%)

The game in Ann Arbor this week has some pretty big implications for the Big Ten East.

Michigan State

Date	Michigan State	Team	Rank	Projected Win%
9/4	Away	Western Michigan	108	W
9/12	Home	Oregon	85	W
9/19	Home	Air Force	71	W
9/26	Home	Central Michigan	94	W
10/3	Home	Purdue	90	W
10/10	Away	Rutgers	87	W
10/17	Away	Michigan	5	17%
10/24	Home	Indiana	92	73%
11/7	Away	Nebraska	42	39%
11/14	Home	Maryland	86	70%
11/21	Away	Ohio State	27	30%
11/28	Home	Penn State	47	57%

THOR+ Record: 6-0 (100%)

Looking at the current rankings for each of Michigan State's past opponents, it's pretty clear that Michigan will pose the biggest test for the Spartans thus far this season.

Ohio State

Date	Ohio State	Team	Rank	Projected Win%
9/7	Away	Virginia Tech	51	W
9/12	Home	Hawai'i	105	W
9/19	Home	Northern Illinois	57	W
9/26	Home	Western Michigan	108	W
10/3	Away	Indiana	92	W
10/10	Home	Maryland	86	W
10/17	Home	Penn State	47	70%
10/24	Away	Rutgers	87	69%
11/7	Home	Minnesota	72	76%
11/14	Away	Illinois	50	56%
11/21	Home	Michigan State	49	70%
11/28	Away	Michigan	5	26%

THOR+ Record: 6-0 (100%)

It's now week 7, and I'm still wondering when Ohio State will start clicking on all cylinders. Time is running out, but they are still unbeaten.

Penn State

Date	Penn State	Team	Rank	Projected Win%
9/5	Away	Temple	34	L
9/12	Home	Buffalo	97	W
9/19	Home	Rutgers	87	W
9/26	Home	San Diego State	99	W
10/3	Home	Army	88	W
10/10	Home	Indiana	92	W
10/17	Away	Ohio State	27	30%
10/24	Neutral	Maryland	86	64%
10/31	Home	Illinois	50	58%
11/7	Away	Northwestern	46	42%
11/21	Home	Michigan	5	32%
11/28	Away	Michigan State	49	43%

THOR+ Record: 6-0 (100%)

Penn State hasn't played a road game -- and, consequently, a good opponent -- since the first week of the season. I'd imagine this game ends in a similar fashion.

Rutgers

Date	Rutgers	Team	Rank	Projected Win%
9/5	Home	Norfolk State	FCS	W
9/12	Home	Washington State	82	L
9/19	Away	Penn State	47	L
9/26	Home	Kansas	121	W
10/10	Home	Michigan State	49	L
10/17	Away	Indiana	92	46%
10/24	Home	Ohio State	27	31%
10/31	Away	Wisconsin	39	25%
11/7	Away	Michigan	5	11%
11/14	Home	Nebraska	42	40%
11/21	Away	Army	88	43%
11/28	Home	Maryland	86	57%

THOR+ Record: 3-1 (75%)

Rutgers' upset bid against Michigan State ended when the Scarlet Knights spiked the ball on 4th down. Hmm... Yeah, that seems fitting.