BIG TEN WIN PROJECTIONS: POST-WEEK 10

With week 10 in the bag, we do see a little bit of movement this week. The Big Ten East essentially remains unchanged, for the most part, while THOR+ is really starting to like Wisconsin. Oh, and our Hawkeyes get a boost this week after dismantling Northwestern.

Post-Week 10 Win Projections

B1G West Season Wins	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11
Wisconsin	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.4%	8.0%	28.5%	40.3%	22.8%	0.0%
Nebraska	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	5.8%	40.2%	43.0%	11.0%
Iowa	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	7.3%	27.9%	38.9%	20.3%	5.6%	0.0%
Minnesota	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	17.8%	42.7%	31.9%	7.2%	0.4%	0.0%
Purdue	13.2%	41.2%	36.5%	9.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Illinois	0.0%	12.8%	38.0%	37.9%	11.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Northwestern	10.6%	31.9%	40.9%	15.3%	1.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
B1G East Season Wins	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11
Ohio State	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	6.7%	31.0%	45.8%	16.4%
Michigan State	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.6%	8.5%	30.1%	43.4%	17.4%
Maryland	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	6.5%	30.7%	46.6%	16.2%	0.0%	0.0%
Michigan	0.0%	21.0%	48.2%	28.0%	2.8%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Indiana	7.8%	30.1%	39.6%	20.8%	1.7%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Penn State	0.0%	10.8%	32.5%	37.5%	16.2%	3.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Rutgers	0.0%	0.0%	28.0%	54.3%	16.5%	1.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Essentially, THOR+ believes that if the Big Ten wants a team to make the college football playoffs this year, Michigan State has the current slight upper hand, followed by Ohio State, while Nebraska is the dark horse candidate.

B1G West Conference Wins	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8
Wisconsin	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.4%	8.1%	28.4%	40.3%	22.8%	0.0%
Nebraska	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	5.8%	40.2%	43.1%	10.9%	0.0%
Iowa	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	7.3%	27.8%	39.0%	20.3%	5.6%	0.0%
Minnesota	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	17.8%	42.7%	31.9%	7.2%	0.4%	0.0%
Purdue	0.0%	13.2%	41.3%	36.5%	9.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Illinois	0.0%	12.8%	38.0%	37.9%	11.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Northwestern	0.0%	0.0%	12.0%	37.1%	40.8%	10.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
B1G East Conference Wins	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8
Ohio State	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	6.6%	31.0%	45.9%	16.4%
Michigan State	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.6%	8.5%	30.1%	43.4%	17.4%
Maryland	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	6.5%	30.6%	46.7%	16.2%	0.0%	0.0%
Michigan	0.0%	0.0%	21.1%	48.2%	27.9%	2.8%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Indiana	7.8%	30.1%	39.7%	20.7%	1.7%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Penn State	0.0%	26.1%	41.0%	27.5%	5.4%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Rutgers	0.0%	27.9%	54.3%	16.6%	1.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

From a conference standpoint, THOR+ feels Wisconsin currently has the best odds to win the Big Ten West. So, yes, Nebraska fans, the Huskers have the better shot at going 11-1 due to the fact that Wisconsin already has 2 losses, but those odds aren't currently as favorable as the Badgers running the table. Meanwhile, THOR+ has upgraded Iowa's projections from 4 conference wins to 5, while also increasing their chances of winning 6 or 7 Big Ten games. Because of a brutal November schedule, I wouldn't count on the Hawkeyes running the table, but at least there is a chance. Of course, there is also a shot for Minnesota, but their remaining slate is even more difficult than Iowa's, so don't hold your breath, Gopher fans.

In the Big Ten East, things remain little changed. Michigan State is still the slight favorite, due to being favored in their matchup with the Buckeyes this weekend. However, Maryland's projection moves from 4 to 5 conference wins, after they escaped a close road game with Penn State.

And then here we have the mean, max, and min wins for each Big Ten team, according to THOR+.

B1G West	Mean Wins	Min. Wins	Max. Wins	Mean B1G Wins	Min B1G Wins	Max B1G Wins
Wisconsin	8.8	6	10	5.8	3	7
Nebraska	9.6	8	11	5.6	4	7
Iowa	7.9	6	10	4.9	3	7
Minnesota	7.3	6	10	4.3	3	7
Purdue	4.4	3	6	2.4	1	4
Illinois	5.5	4	7	2.5	1	4
Northwestern	4.6	3	7	3.5	2	5
B1G East	Mean Wins	Min. Wins	Max. Wins	Mean B1G Wins	Min B1G Wins	Max B1G Wins
Ohio State	9.7	7	11	6.7	4	8
Michigan State	9.7	7	11	6.7	4	8
Maryland	7.7	6	9	4.7	3	6
Michigan	5.1	4	7	3.1	2	5
Indiana	4.8	3	7	1.8	0	4
Penn State	5.7	4	8	2.1	1	4
Rutgers	5.9	5	8	1.9	1	4

Finally, we end with the usual breakdown of each team's remaining games.

Big Ten West

Iowa

Date	Iowa	Projected Win%
11/8	at Minnesota	42.9%
11/15	at Illinois	50.1%
11/22	vs. Wisconsin	46.6%
11/28	vs. Nebraska	51.1%

After pounding Northwestern this weekend, THOR+ has upgraded Iowa's win projections in their remaining games from last week. Of course, the November schedule still doesn't look all that easy. Iowa should have a chance in each and every remaining game, but running the table is going to be an uphill battle.

Wisconsin

Date	Wisconsin	Projected Win%
11/8	at Purdue	65.1%
11/15	vs. Nebraska	72.3%
11/22	at Iowa	53.4%
11/29	vs. Minnesota	84.7%

Oh, to have Wisconsin's November schedule. Interestingly enough, THOR+ currently pegs the road game in Iowa City as the Badgers most difficult final game. Wouldn't it be crazy if Nebraska had a slip up and the battle for the Heartland Trophy was also the battle for the Big Ten West championship?

Nebraska

Date	Nebraska	Projected Win%
11/15	at Wisconsin	27.7%
11/22	vs. Minnesota	80.9%
11/28	at Iowa	48.9%

On a similar note, wouldn't it be interesting if Nebraska beat Wisconsin and Minnesota, and the final game of the season at Iowa was for the Big Ten West? Dare to dream, you guys. Dare to dream.

Minnesota

Date	Minnesota	Projected Win%
11/8	vs. Iowa	57.1%
11/15	vs. Ohio State	37.5%
11/22	at Nebraska	19.1%
11/29	at Wisconsin	15.3%

Not to be a buzz kill, Minnesota fans... wait, actually, screw Minnesota. You have like a 0% chance of winning the division. I hope Iowa treats you like they did Northwestern this weekend.

Purdue

Date	Purdue	Projected Win%
11/8	vs. Wisconsin	34.9%
11/22	vs. Northwestern	66.7%
11/29	at Indiana	37.5%

Illinois

Date	Illinois	Projected Win%
11/15	vs. Iowa	49.9%
11/22	vs. Penn State	62.6%
11/29	at Northwestern	39.5%

Northwestern

Date	Northwestern	Projected Win%
11/8	vs. Michigan	55.0%
11/15	at Notre Dame	16.7%
11/22	at Purdue	33.3%
11/29	vs. Illinois	60.5%

Big Ten East

Ohio State

Date	Ohio State	Projected Win%
11/8	at Michigan State	36.6%
11/15	at Minnesota	62.5%
11/22	vs. Indiana	89.1%
11/29	vs. Michigan	87.5%

The winner this upcoming weekend is most likely the division champion.

Michigan State

Date	Michigan State	Projected Win%
11/8	vs. Ohio State	63.4%
11/15	at Maryland	49.3%
11/22	vs. Rutgers	88.7%
11/29	at Penn State	64.8%

Maryland

Date	Maryland	Projected Win%
11/15	vs. Michigan State	50.7%
11/22	at Michigan	46.2%
11/29	vs. Rutgers	79.5%

Michigan

Date	Michigan	Projected Win%
11/8	at Northwestern	45.0%
11/22	vs. Maryland	53.8%
11/29	at Ohio State	12.5%

Indiana

Date	Indiana	Projected Win%
11/8	vs. Penn State	64.1%
11/15	at Rutgers	43.2%
11/22	at Ohio State	10.9%
11/29	vs. Purdue	62.5%

Penn State

Date	Penn State	Projected Win%
11/8	at Indiana	35.9%
11/15	vs. Temple	53.6%
11/22	at Illinois	37.4%
11/29	vs. Michigan State	35.2%

Rutgers

Date	Rutgers	Projected Win%
11/15	vs. Indiana	56.8%
11/22	at Michigan State	11.3%
11/29	at Maryland	20.5%