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BIG TEN WIN PROJECTIONS: POST-WEEK 10

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Ohio State and Michigan State sit atop the Big Ten East, while Wisconsin makes a push past Nebraska in the Big Ten West.

Alex Goodlett

With week 10 in the bag, we do see a little bit of movement this week. The Big Ten East essentially remains unchanged, for the most part, while THOR+ is really starting to like Wisconsin. Oh, and our Hawkeyes get a boost this week after dismantling Northwestern.

Post-Week 10 Win Projections

B1G West Season Wins 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Wisconsin 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 8.0% 28.5% 40.3% 22.8% 0.0%
Nebraska 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.8% 40.2% 43.0% 11.0%
Iowa 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.3% 27.9% 38.9% 20.3% 5.6% 0.0%
Minnesota 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 17.8% 42.7% 31.9% 7.2% 0.4% 0.0%
Purdue 13.2% 41.2% 36.5% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois 0.0% 12.8% 38.0% 37.9% 11.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northwestern 10.6% 31.9% 40.9% 15.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
B1G East Season Wins 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Ohio State 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 6.7% 31.0% 45.8% 16.4%
Michigan State 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 8.5% 30.1% 43.4% 17.4%
Maryland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.5% 30.7% 46.6% 16.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Michigan 0.0% 21.0% 48.2% 28.0% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Indiana 7.8% 30.1% 39.6% 20.8% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Penn State 0.0% 10.8% 32.5% 37.5% 16.2% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rutgers 0.0% 0.0% 28.0% 54.3% 16.5% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Essentially, THOR+ believes that if the Big Ten wants a team to make the college football playoffs this year, Michigan State has the current slight upper hand, followed by Ohio State, while Nebraska is the dark horse candidate.

B1G West Conference Wins 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Wisconsin 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 8.1% 28.4% 40.3% 22.8% 0.0%
Nebraska 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.8% 40.2% 43.1% 10.9% 0.0%
Iowa 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.3% 27.8% 39.0% 20.3% 5.6% 0.0%
Minnesota 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 17.8% 42.7% 31.9% 7.2% 0.4% 0.0%
Purdue 0.0% 13.2% 41.3% 36.5% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois 0.0% 12.8% 38.0% 37.9% 11.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northwestern 0.0% 0.0% 12.0% 37.1% 40.8% 10.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
B1G East Conference Wins 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Ohio State 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 6.6% 31.0% 45.9% 16.4%
Michigan State 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 8.5% 30.1% 43.4% 17.4%
Maryland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.5% 30.6% 46.7% 16.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Michigan 0.0% 0.0% 21.1% 48.2% 27.9% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Indiana 7.8% 30.1% 39.7% 20.7% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Penn State 0.0% 26.1% 41.0% 27.5% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rutgers 0.0% 27.9% 54.3% 16.6% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

From a conference standpoint, THOR+ feels Wisconsin currently has the best odds to win the Big Ten West. So, yes, Nebraska fans, the Huskers have the better shot at going 11-1 due to the fact that Wisconsin already has 2 losses, but those odds aren't currently as favorable as the Badgers running the table. Meanwhile, THOR+ has upgraded Iowa's projections from 4 conference wins to 5, while also increasing their chances of winning 6 or 7 Big Ten games. Because of a brutal November schedule, I wouldn't count on the Hawkeyes running the table, but at least there is a chance. Of course, there is also a shot for Minnesota, but their remaining slate is even more difficult than Iowa's, so don't hold your breath, Gopher fans.

In the Big Ten East, things remain little changed. Michigan State is still the slight favorite, due to being favored in their matchup with the Buckeyes this weekend. However, Maryland's projection moves from 4 to 5 conference wins, after they escaped a close road game with Penn State.

And then here we have the mean, max, and min wins for each Big Ten team, according to THOR+.

B1G West Mean Wins Min. Wins Max. Wins Mean B1G Wins Min B1G Wins Max B1G Wins
Wisconsin 8.8 6 10 5.8 3 7
Nebraska 9.6 8 11 5.6 4 7
Iowa 7.9 6 10 4.9 3 7
Minnesota 7.3 6 10 4.3 3 7
Purdue 4.4 3 6 2.4 1 4
Illinois 5.5 4 7 2.5 1 4
Northwestern 4.6 3 7 3.5 2 5
B1G East Mean Wins Min. Wins Max. Wins Mean B1G Wins Min B1G Wins Max B1G Wins
Ohio State 9.7 7 11 6.7 4 8
Michigan State 9.7 7 11 6.7 4 8
Maryland 7.7 6 9 4.7 3 6
Michigan 5.1 4 7 3.1 2 5
Indiana 4.8 3 7 1.8 0 4
Penn State 5.7 4 8 2.1 1 4
Rutgers 5.9 5 8 1.9 1 4

Finally, we end with the usual breakdown of each team's remaining games.

Big Ten West

Iowa

Date Iowa Projected Win%
11/8 at Minnesota 42.9%
11/15 at Illinois 50.1%
11/22 vs. Wisconsin 46.6%
11/28 vs. Nebraska 51.1%

After pounding Northwestern this weekend, THOR+ has upgraded Iowa's win projections in their remaining games from last week. Of course, the November schedule still doesn't look all that easy. Iowa should have a chance in each and every remaining game, but running the table is going to be an uphill battle.

Wisconsin

Date Wisconsin Projected Win%
11/8 at Purdue 65.1%
11/15 vs. Nebraska 72.3%
11/22 at Iowa 53.4%
11/29 vs. Minnesota 84.7%

Oh, to have Wisconsin's November schedule. Interestingly enough, THOR+ currently pegs the road game in Iowa City as the Badgers most difficult final game. Wouldn't it be crazy if Nebraska had a slip up and the battle for the Heartland Trophy was also the battle for the Big Ten West championship?

Nebraska

Date Nebraska Projected Win%
11/15 at Wisconsin 27.7%
11/22 vs. Minnesota 80.9%
11/28 at Iowa 48.9%

On a similar note, wouldn't it be interesting if Nebraska beat Wisconsin and Minnesota, and the final game of the season at Iowa was for the Big Ten West? Dare to dream, you guys. Dare to dream.

Minnesota

Date Minnesota Projected Win%
11/8 vs. Iowa 57.1%
11/15 vs. Ohio State 37.5%
11/22 at Nebraska 19.1%
11/29 at Wisconsin 15.3%

Not to be a buzz kill, Minnesota fans... wait, actually, screw Minnesota. You have like a 0% chance of winning the division. I hope Iowa treats you like they did Northwestern this weekend.

Purdue

Date Purdue Projected Win%
11/8 vs. Wisconsin 34.9%
11/22 vs. Northwestern 66.7%
11/29 at Indiana 37.5%

Illinois

Date Illinois Projected Win%
11/15 vs. Iowa 49.9%
11/22 vs. Penn State 62.6%
11/29 at Northwestern 39.5%

Northwestern

Date Northwestern Projected Win%
11/8 vs. Michigan 55.0%
11/15 at Notre Dame 16.7%
11/22 at Purdue 33.3%
11/29 vs. Illinois 60.5%

Big Ten East

Ohio State

Date Ohio State Projected Win%
11/8 at Michigan State 36.6%
11/15 at Minnesota 62.5%
11/22 vs. Indiana 89.1%
11/29 vs. Michigan 87.5%

The winner this upcoming weekend is most likely the division champion.

Michigan State

Date Michigan State Projected Win%
11/8 vs. Ohio State 63.4%
11/15 at Maryland 49.3%
11/22 vs. Rutgers 88.7%
11/29 at Penn State 64.8%

Maryland

Date Maryland Projected Win%
11/15 vs. Michigan State 50.7%
11/22 at Michigan 46.2%
11/29 vs. Rutgers 79.5%

Michigan

Date Michigan Projected Win%
11/8 at Northwestern 45.0%
11/22 vs. Maryland 53.8%
11/29 at Ohio State 12.5%

Indiana

Date Indiana Projected Win%
11/8 vs. Penn State 64.1%
11/15 at Rutgers 43.2%
11/22 at Ohio State 10.9%
11/29 vs. Purdue 62.5%


Penn State

Date Penn State Projected Win%
11/8 at Indiana 35.9%
11/15 vs. Temple 53.6%
11/22 at Illinois 37.4%
11/29 vs. Michigan State 35.2%

Rutgers

Date Rutgers Projected Win%
11/15 vs. Indiana 56.8%
11/22 at Michigan State 11.3%
11/29 at Maryland 20.5%