BIG TEN WIN PROJECTIONS: POST-WEEK 11

Let's just go ahead and jump to the projections.

Post-Week 11 Win Projections

B1G West Season Wins	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11
Wisconsin	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	1.8%	14.5%	43.7%	40.0%	0.0%
Nebraska	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	7.7%	36.5%	45.2%	10.6%
Minnesota	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	37.5%	44.6%	15.6%	2.3%	0.0%
Iowa	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	20.9%	42.1%	29.8%	7.2%	0.0%	0.0%
Purdue	20.7%	52.4%	26.9%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Illinois	0.0%	9.4%	34.9%	42.5%	13.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Northwestern	22.7%	48.9%	25.7%	2.7%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
B1G East Season Wins	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11
Ohio State	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.8%	10.5%	47.2%	41.5%
Michigan State	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	2.2%	27.6%	49.0%	21.2%	0.0%
Maryland	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	6.1%	32.1%	42.0%	19.8%	0.0%	0.0%
Michigan	0.0%	0.0%	37.0%	55.0%	8.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Penn State	0.0%	0.0%	15.4%	40.8%	34.2%	9.6%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Indiana	20.5%	49.2%	27.2%	3.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Rutgers	0.0%	0.0%	27.1%	51.5%	19.5%	1.9%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

If the Big Ten has any chance at getting a team into the college football playoff, Ohio State and Nebraska are the only teams left with a shot. THOR+ gives Ohio State the best odds at advancing to the Big Ten championship game with only one loss, while Nebraska only has about an 11% chance right now, thanks to Wisconsin being the favorite in the West.

B1G West Conference Wins	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8
Wisconsin	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	1.8%	14.5%	43.7%	40.0%	0.0%
Nebraska	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	7.7%	36.6%	45.2%	10.5%	0.0%
Minnesota	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	37.5%	44.5%	15.7%	2.3%	0.0%
Iowa	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	20.8%	42.2%	29.8%	7.2%	0.0%	0.0%
Purdue	0.0%	20.8%	52.3%	26.9%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Illinois	0.0%	9.4%	34.8%	42.6%	13.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Northwestern	0.0%	0.0%	27.5%	53.7%	18.8%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
B1G East Conference Wins	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8
Ohio State	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.8%	10.5%	47.2%	41.5%
Michigan State	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	2.2%	27.6%	49.0%	21.2%	0.0%
Maryland	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	6.1%	32.1%	42.0%	19.8%	0.0%	0.0%
Michigan	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	37.1%	54.9%	8.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Penn State	0.0%	0.0%	34.7%	48.5%	16.8%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Indiana	20.5%	49.2%	27.2%	3.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Rutgers	0.0%	27.0%	51.6%	19.5%	1.9%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Meanwhile, from a conference-only standpoint, a 49-37 win over Michigan State Saturday night essentially put the Big Ten East in the palm of Ohio State's hand. In order to lose the division, they would need to lose two out of their final three games against Minnesota, Indiana, and Michigan. Additionally, Michigan State would need to win out in order for the Spartans to take the division. Maryland has an outside chance, I guess, but they would need Ohio State to finish the season 0-3. Also, the Terps would need to win out, including their game vs. Michigan State this weekend. So yeah, the East is basically the Buckeyes' to lose.

As for the West, the landscape didn't change much this past weekend. Even with the massacre that occurred in Minneapolis in week 11, the Gophers still have virtually no chance at winning the division, thanks to a murderous end-of-season schedule. Wisconsin continues to be the division favorite due to a favorable schedule, including Nebraska and Minnesota at home, and only having to leave the comfortable confines of Camp Randall for a game in Iowa City. If the Badgers don't win the division, Nebraska is the team with the next best shot at doing so. If the Huskers get the win in Madison this weekend, they will emerge as the division favorites.

Of course, despite getting absolutely embarrassed this past Saturday, our beloved Hawkeyes technically aren't totally out of the race in the West. They could be the team to throw the division into chaos by winning out. Of course, since they lost to Minnesota, they would also need the Gophers to lose two of their next three games. That's not totally out of the question, seeing how they have Ohio State at home and then go on the road against Nebraska and Wisconsin. However, THOR+ places Iowa's odds of winning their final three games at approximately 7%. So, yes, our beloved Hawkeyes still have a shot (an extremely tiny shot), but the odds are pretty good that the winner of the Wisconsin and Nebraska game this weekend will emerge as the division champ.

Per usual, here are the mean, min, and max wins for each Big Ten team.

B1G West	Mean Wins	Min. Wins	Max. Wins	Mean B1G Wins	Min B1G Wins	Max B1G Wins
Wisconsin	9.2	7	10	6.2	4	7
Nebraska	9.6	8	11	5.6	4	7
Minnesota	7.8	7	10	4.8	4	7
Iowa	7.2	6	9	4.2	3	6
Purdue	4.1	3	5	2.1	1	3
Illinois	5.6	4	7	2.6	1	4
Northwestern	4.1	3	6	2.9	2	4
B1G East	Mean Wins	Min. Wins	Max. Wins	Mean B1G Wins	Min B1G Wins	Max B1G Wins
Ohio State	10.3	8	11	7.3	5	8
Michigan State	8.9	7	10	5.9	4	7
Maryland	7.8	6	9	4.8	3	6
Michigan	5.7	5	7	3.7	3	5
Penn State	6.4	5	8	2.8	2	4
Indiana	4.1	3	6	1.1	0	3
Rutgers	6.0	5	8	2.0	1	4

Finally, here's a look at the remaining games on everyone's schedule.

Big Ten West

Iowa

Date	Iowa	Projected Win%
11/15	at Illinois	43.1%
11/22	vs. Wisconsin	38.3%
11/28	vs. Nebraska	44.4%

Believe it or not, getting hammered by 37 points to a team that is not much better than you doesn't help your ratings the following Monday.

Wisconsin

Date	Wisconsin	Projected Win%
11/15	vs. Nebraska	74.4%
11/22	at Iowa	61.7%
11/29	vs. Minnesota	83.1%

Nebraska

Date	Nebraska	Projected Win%
11/15	at Wisconsin	25.6%
11/22	vs. Minnesota	77.1%
11/28	at Iowa	55.6%

Minnesota

Date	Minnesota	Projected Win%
11/15	vs. Ohio State	43.5%
11/22	at Nebraska	22.9%
11/29	at Wisconsin	16.9%

Purdue

Date	Purdue	Projected Win%
11/22	vs. Northwestern	66.7%
11/29	at Indiana	38.4%

Illinois

Date	Illinois	Projected Win%
11/15	vs. Iowa	56.9%
11/22	vs. Penn State	61.4%
11/29	at Northwestern	41.0%

Northwestern

Date	Northwestern	Projected Win%
11/15	at Notre Dame	17.8%
11/22	at Purdue	33.3%
11/29	vs. Illinois	59.0%

Big Ten East

Ohio State

Date	Ohio State	Projected Win%
11/15	at Minnesota	56.5%
11/22	vs. Indiana	89.6%
11/29	vs. Michigan	86.7%

Michigan State

Date	Michigan State	Projected Win%
11/15	at Maryland	45.8%
11/22	vs. Rutgers	85.3%
11/29	at Penn State	58.8%

Because this seems to be the inevitable question every week: yes, THOR+ still has Maryland favored against Michigan State. This is far from a lock though. The Spartans had closed the gap and probably would have been favored with a better performance against Ohio State. Instead, the defense took a hit against the Buckeyes and MSU fell in the eyes of THOR+. Personally, I don't think Maryland will beat the Spartans, but who knows? Every week, there are one or two games nationally in which THOR+ calls for a home team to upset someone that no one expects them to. A couple of weeks ago it was another Big Ten game with Illinois against Minnesota, and that ended up being right. This week it's Maryland vs. Michigan State, so I guess we shall see what happens.

Maryland

Date	Maryland	Projected Win%
11/15	vs. Michigan State	54.2%
11/22	at Michigan	44.2%
11/29	vs. Rutgers	77.9%

Michigan

Date	Michigan	Projected Win%
11/22	vs. Maryland	55.8%
11/29	at Ohio State	13.3%

Penn State

Date	Penn State	Projected Win%
11/15	vs. Temple	56.8%
11/22	at Illinois	38.6%
11/29	vs. Michigan State	41.2%

Indiana

Date	Indiana	Projected Win%
11/15	at Rutgers	40.2%
11/22	at Ohio State	10.4%
11/29	vs. Purdue	61.6%

Rutgers

Date	Rutgers	Projected Win%
11/15	vs. Indiana	59.8%
11/22	at Michigan State	14.7%
11/29	at Maryland	22.1%