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BIG TEN WIN PROJECTIONS: POST-WEEK 11

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The Big Ten East race is basically over, while the West continues to be a two team race.

Joe Robbins

Let's just go ahead and jump to the projections.

Post-Week 11 Win Projections

B1G West Season Wins 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Wisconsin 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.8% 14.5% 43.7% 40.0% 0.0%
Nebraska 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.7% 36.5% 45.2% 10.6%
Minnesota 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 37.5% 44.6% 15.6% 2.3% 0.0%
Iowa 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 20.9% 42.1% 29.8% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Purdue 20.7% 52.4% 26.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois 0.0% 9.4% 34.9% 42.5% 13.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northwestern 22.7% 48.9% 25.7% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
B1G East Season Wins 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Ohio State 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 10.5% 47.2% 41.5%
Michigan State 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.2% 27.6% 49.0% 21.2% 0.0%
Maryland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.1% 32.1% 42.0% 19.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Michigan 0.0% 0.0% 37.0% 55.0% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Penn State 0.0% 0.0% 15.4% 40.8% 34.2% 9.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Indiana 20.5% 49.2% 27.2% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rutgers 0.0% 0.0% 27.1% 51.5% 19.5% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

If the Big Ten has any chance at getting a team into the college football playoff, Ohio State and Nebraska are the only teams left with a shot. THOR+ gives Ohio State the best odds at advancing to the Big Ten championship game with only one loss, while Nebraska only has about an 11% chance right now, thanks to Wisconsin being the favorite in the West.

B1G West Conference Wins 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Wisconsin 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.8% 14.5% 43.7% 40.0% 0.0%
Nebraska 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.7% 36.6% 45.2% 10.5% 0.0%
Minnesota 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 37.5% 44.5% 15.7% 2.3% 0.0%
Iowa 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 20.8% 42.2% 29.8% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Purdue 0.0% 20.8% 52.3% 26.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois 0.0% 9.4% 34.8% 42.6% 13.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northwestern 0.0% 0.0% 27.5% 53.7% 18.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
B1G East Conference Wins 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Ohio State 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 10.5% 47.2% 41.5%
Michigan State 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.2% 27.6% 49.0% 21.2% 0.0%
Maryland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.1% 32.1% 42.0% 19.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Michigan 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 37.1% 54.9% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Penn State 0.0% 0.0% 34.7% 48.5% 16.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Indiana 20.5% 49.2% 27.2% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rutgers 0.0% 27.0% 51.6% 19.5% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Meanwhile, from a conference-only standpoint, a 49-37 win over Michigan State Saturday night essentially put the Big Ten East in the palm of Ohio State's hand. In order to lose the division, they would need to lose two out of their final three games against Minnesota, Indiana, and Michigan. Additionally, Michigan State would need to win out in order for the Spartans to take the division. Maryland has an outside chance, I guess, but they would need Ohio State to finish the season 0-3. Also, the Terps would need to win out, including their game vs. Michigan State this weekend. So yeah, the East is basically the Buckeyes' to lose.

As for the West, the landscape didn't change much this past weekend. Even with the massacre that occurred in Minneapolis in week 11, the Gophers still have virtually no chance at winning the division, thanks to a murderous end-of-season schedule. Wisconsin continues to be the division favorite due to a favorable schedule, including Nebraska and Minnesota at home, and only having to leave the comfortable confines of Camp Randall for a game in Iowa City. If the Badgers don't win the division, Nebraska is the team with the next best shot at doing so. If the Huskers get the win in Madison this weekend, they will emerge as the division favorites.

Of course, despite getting absolutely embarrassed this past Saturday, our beloved Hawkeyes technically aren't totally out of the race in the West. They could be the team to throw the division into chaos by winning out. Of course, since they lost to Minnesota, they would also need the Gophers to lose two of their next three games. That's not totally out of the question, seeing how they have Ohio State at home and then go on the road against Nebraska and Wisconsin. However, THOR+ places Iowa's odds of winning their final three games at approximately 7%. So, yes, our beloved Hawkeyes still have a shot (an extremely tiny shot), but the odds are pretty good that the winner of the Wisconsin and Nebraska game this weekend will emerge as the division champ.

Per usual, here are the mean, min, and max wins for each Big Ten team.

B1G West Mean Wins Min. Wins Max. Wins Mean B1G Wins Min B1G Wins Max B1G Wins
Wisconsin 9.2 7 10 6.2 4 7
Nebraska 9.6 8 11 5.6 4 7
Minnesota 7.8 7 10 4.8 4 7
Iowa 7.2 6 9 4.2 3 6
Purdue 4.1 3 5 2.1 1 3
Illinois 5.6 4 7 2.6 1 4
Northwestern 4.1 3 6 2.9 2 4
B1G East Mean Wins Min. Wins Max. Wins Mean B1G Wins Min B1G Wins Max B1G Wins
Ohio State 10.3 8 11 7.3 5 8
Michigan State 8.9 7 10 5.9 4 7
Maryland 7.8 6 9 4.8 3 6
Michigan 5.7 5 7 3.7 3 5
Penn State 6.4 5 8 2.8 2 4
Indiana 4.1 3 6 1.1 0 3
Rutgers 6.0 5 8 2.0 1 4

Finally, here's a look at the remaining games on everyone's schedule.

Big Ten West

Iowa

Date Iowa Projected Win%
11/15 at Illinois 43.1%
11/22 vs. Wisconsin 38.3%
11/28 vs. Nebraska 44.4%

Believe it or not, getting hammered by 37 points to a team that is not much better than you doesn't help your ratings the following Monday.

Wisconsin

Date Wisconsin Projected Win%
11/15 vs. Nebraska 74.4%
11/22 at Iowa 61.7%
11/29 vs. Minnesota 83.1%

Nebraska

Date Nebraska Projected Win%
11/15 at Wisconsin 25.6%
11/22 vs. Minnesota 77.1%
11/28 at Iowa 55.6%

Minnesota

Date Minnesota Projected Win%
11/15 vs. Ohio State 43.5%
11/22 at Nebraska 22.9%
11/29 at Wisconsin 16.9%

Purdue

Date Purdue Projected Win%
11/22 vs. Northwestern 66.7%
11/29 at Indiana 38.4%

Illinois

Date Illinois Projected Win%
11/15 vs. Iowa 56.9%
11/22 vs. Penn State 61.4%
11/29 at Northwestern 41.0%

Northwestern

Date Northwestern Projected Win%
11/15 at Notre Dame 17.8%
11/22 at Purdue 33.3%
11/29 vs. Illinois 59.0%

Big Ten East

Ohio State

Date Ohio State Projected Win%
11/15 at Minnesota 56.5%
11/22 vs. Indiana 89.6%
11/29 vs. Michigan 86.7%

Michigan State

Date Michigan State Projected Win%
11/15 at Maryland 45.8%
11/22 vs. Rutgers 85.3%
11/29 at Penn State 58.8%

Because this seems to be the inevitable question every week: yes, THOR+ still has Maryland favored against Michigan State. This is far from a lock though. The Spartans had closed the gap and probably would have been favored with a better performance against Ohio State. Instead, the defense took a hit against the Buckeyes and MSU fell in the eyes of THOR+. Personally, I don't think Maryland will beat the Spartans, but who knows? Every week, there are one or two games nationally in which THOR+ calls for a home team to upset someone that no one expects them to. A couple of weeks ago it was another Big Ten game with Illinois against Minnesota, and that ended up being right. This week it's Maryland vs. Michigan State, so I guess we shall see what happens.

Maryland

Date Maryland Projected Win%
11/15 vs. Michigan State 54.2%
11/22 at Michigan 44.2%
11/29 vs. Rutgers 77.9%

Michigan

Date Michigan Projected Win%
11/22 vs. Maryland 55.8%
11/29 at Ohio State 13.3%

Penn State

Date Penn State Projected Win%
11/15 vs. Temple 56.8%
11/22 at Illinois 38.6%
11/29 vs. Michigan State 41.2%

Indiana

Date Indiana Projected Win%
11/15 at Rutgers 40.2%
11/22 at Ohio State 10.4%
11/29 vs. Purdue 61.6%

Rutgers

Date Rutgers Projected Win%
11/15 vs. Indiana 59.8%
11/22 at Michigan State 14.7%
11/29 at Maryland 22.1%