BIG TEN WIN PROJECTIONS: POST-WEEK 9

After week 9, Minnesota is officially eliminated from playoff talk (not that anybody was penciling them in), while Ohio State, Michigan State, and Nebraska are still looking good.

Post-Week 9 Win Projections

B1G West Season Wins	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11
Nebraska	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.8%	9.6%	35.6%	41.7%	12.3%
Wisconsin	0.0%	0.0%	0.3%	4.9%	16.6%	36.2%	30.2%	11.8%	0.0%
Iowa	0.0%	0.0%	2.7%	18.3%	34.5%	27.7%	14.6%	2.2%	0.0%
Minnesota	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	14.2%	41.1%	34.4%	9.9%	0.4%	0.0%
Purdue	12.4%	34.5%	38.7%	13.1%	1.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Illinois	0.0%	6.7%	31.4%	39.5%	21.0%	1.4%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Northwestern	6.1%	21.2%	37.9%	27.1%	7.0%	0.7%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
B1G East Season Wins	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11
Ohio State	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	2.9%	12.3%	37.3%	37.3%	10.1%
Michigan State	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.3%	7.2%	29.4%	43.8%	19.3%
Maryland	0.0%	0.0%	2.8%	20.6%	38.3%	29.0%	9.3%	0.0%	0.0%
Indiana	4.2%	20.7%	34.8%	28.5%	10.8%	1.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Michigan	9.6%	32.4%	40.1%	15.4%	2.5%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Penn State	0.0%	4.5%	23.7%	35.9%	25.5%	8.8%	1.6%	0.0%	0.0%
Rutgers	0.0%	0.0%	19.0%	42.9%	30.5%	7.3%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%

THOR+ gives Michigan State the best chance to finish the season 11-1, thanks to hosting Ohio State at home in two weeks. It also gives Nebraska slightly better odds of finishing 11-1 for that same reason, though there really isn't all that much difference between the two teams' odds.

B1G West Conference Wins	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8
Nebraska	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.8%	9.6%	35.5%	41.7%	12.4%	0.0%
Wisconsin	0.0%	0.0%	0.3%	4.9%	16.5%	36.3%	30.2%	11.8%	0.0%
Iowa	0.0%	0.0%	2.7%	18.3%	34.6%	27.7%	14.5%	2.2%	0.0%
Minnesota	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	14.2%	41.1%	34.4%	9.9%	0.4%	0.0%
Purdue	0.0%	12.4%	34.6%	38.6%	13.1%	1.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Illinois	0.0%	6.7%	31.5%	39.4%	21.0%	1.4%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Northwestern	0.0%	0.0%	7.3%	26.2%	39.5%	22.9%	4.1%	0.0%	0.0%
B1G East Conference Wins	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8
Ohio State	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	2.9%	12.3%	37.4%	37.2%	10.1%
Michigan State	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.3%	7.2%	29.4%	43.9%	19.2%
Maryland	0.0%	0.0%	2.7%	20.6%	38.4%	29.0%	9.3%	0.0%	0.0%
Indiana	4.2%	20.7%	34.9%	28.4%	10.8%	1.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Michigan	0.0%	9.7%	32.4%	40.1%	15.3%	2.5%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Penn State	0.0%	11.8%	37.6%	34.9%	13.0%	2.7%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Rutgers	0.0%	19.0%	42.8%	30.6%	7.3%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Because of what I just said above, THOR+ is leaning toward a Michigan State vs. Nebraska Big Ten Championship game. Although, after a 52-7 smashing of Maryland, Wisconsin suddenly finds themselves with pretty good odds of winning the Big Ten West. Don't count the Badgers out just yet.

Here are each team's mean, maximum, and minimum wins:

B1G West	Mean Wins	Min. Wins	Max. Wins	Mean B1G Wins	Min B1G Wins	Max B1G Wins
Nebraska	9.6	7	11	5.6	3	7
Wisconsin	8.3	5	10	5.3	2	7
Iowa	7.4	5	10	4.4	2	7
Minnesota	7.4	6	10	4.4	3	7
Purdue	4.6	3	7	2.6	1	5
Illinois	5.8	4	8	2.8	1	5
Northwestern	5.1	3	8	3.9	2	6
B1G East	Mean Wins	Min. Wins	Max. Wins	Mean B1G Wins	Min B1G Wins	Max B1G Wins
Ohio State	9.4	6	11	6.4	3	8
Michigan State	9.7	7	11	6.7	4	8
Maryland	7.2	5	9	4.2	2	6
Indiana	5.2	3	8	2.2	0	5
Michigan	4.7	3	7	2.7	1	5
Penn State	6.2	4	9	2.6	1	5
Rutgers	6.3	5	9	2.3	1	5

And, finally, here are the projected odds for each remaining Big Ten game.

Big Ten West

Iowa

Date	Iowa	Projected Win%
11/1	vs. Northwestern	68.8%
11/8	at Minnesota	37.6%
11/15	at Illinois	42.8%
11/22	vs. Wisconsin	45.0%
11/28	vs. Nebraska	44.8%

A big Wisconsin win this past weekend, made an already tough November slate that much more difficult for the Hawkeyes.

Nebraska

Date	Nebraska	Projected Win%
11/1	vs. Purdue	84.2%
11/15	at Wisconsin	33.3%
11/22	vs. Minnesota	81.4%
11/28	at Iowa	55.2%

Wisconsin

Date	Wisconsin	Projected Win%
11/1	at Rutgers	65.6%
11/8	at Purdue	60.7%
11/15	vs. Nebraska	66.7%
11/22	at Iowa	55.0%
11/29	vs. Minnesota	81.2%

We constantly talk about Iowa's schedule being easy, but this is also pretty marshmallowy. Wisconsin's final three opponents are tough, but Iowa's the only road game in that trio. That's pretty favorable for the Badgers. And that November 15th matchup with Nebraska could be for the Big Ten West.

Minnesota

Date	Minnesota	Projected Win%
11/8	vs. Iowa	62.4%
11/15	vs. Ohio State	42.1%
11/22	at Nebraska	18.6%
11/29	at Wisconsin	18.8%

Northwestern

Date	Northwestern	Projected Win%
11/1	at Iowa	31.2%
11/8	vs. Michigan	61.5%
11/15	at Notre Dame	18.9%
11/22	at Purdue	36.4%
11/29	vs. Illinois	62.1%

Purdue

Date	Purdue	Projected Win%
11/1	at Nebraska	15.8%
11/8	vs. Wisconsin	39.3%
11/22	vs. Northwestern	63.6%
11/29	at Indiana	36.2%

Illinois

Date	Illinois	Projected Win%
11/1	at Ohio State	14.2%
11/15	vs. Iowa	57.2%
11/22	vs. Penn State	63.2%
11/29	at Northwestern	37.9%

Big Ten East

Ohio State

Date	Ohio State	Projected Win%
11/1	vs. Illinois	85.8%
11/8	at Michigan State	33.6%
11/15	at Minnesota	57.9%
11/22	vs. Indiana	85.1%
11/29	vs. Michigan	85.4%

Michigan State

Date	Michigan State	Projected Win%
11/8	vs. Ohio State	66.4%
11/15	at Maryland	49.3%
11/22	vs. Rutgers	87.4%
11/29	at Penn State	62.4%

Maryland

Date	Maryland	Projected Win%
11/1	at Penn State	49.3%
11/15	vs. Michigan State	50.7%
11/22	at Michigan	48.1%
11/29	vs. Rutgers	77.6%

Yes, Maryland fans, THOR+ still has Maryland ever so slightly favored vs. Michigan State. It's currently a coin toss, and things can definitely change. And, no, I don't expect Maryland to win that game, no matter if THOR+ does or not.

Michigan

Date	Michigan	Projected Win%
11/1	vs. Indiana	62.1%
11/8	at Northwestern	38.5%
11/22	vs. Maryland	51.9%
11/29	at Ohio State	14.6%

Penn State

Date	Penn State	Projected Win%
11/1	vs. Maryland	50.7%
11/8	at Indiana	35.5%
11/15	vs. Temple	59.6%
11/22	at Illinois	36.8%
11/29	vs. Michigan State	37.6%

Indiana

Date	Indiana	Projected Win%
11/1	at Michigan	37.9%
11/8	vs. Penn State	64.5%
11/15	at Rutgers	43.4%
11/22	at Ohio State	14.9%
11/29	vs. Purdue	63.8%

Rutgers

Date	Rutgers	Projected Win%
11/1	vs. Wisconsin	34.4%
11/15	vs. Indiana	56.6%
11/22	at Michigan State	12.6%
11/29	at Maryland	22.4%