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BIG TEN WIN PROJECTIONS: POST-WEEK 9

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Ohio State survived a scare in Happy Valley, Minnesota fell in Champaign, and the Big Ten now has only three teams with a shot at making the college football playoff.

Joey Bosa, for the win.
Joey Bosa, for the win.
Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports

After week 9, Minnesota is officially eliminated from playoff talk (not that anybody was penciling them in), while Ohio State, Michigan State, and Nebraska are still looking good.

Post-Week 9 Win Projections

B1G West Season Wins 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Nebraska 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 9.6% 35.6% 41.7% 12.3%
Wisconsin 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 4.9% 16.6% 36.2% 30.2% 11.8% 0.0%
Iowa 0.0% 0.0% 2.7% 18.3% 34.5% 27.7% 14.6% 2.2% 0.0%
Minnesota 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.2% 41.1% 34.4% 9.9% 0.4% 0.0%
Purdue 12.4% 34.5% 38.7% 13.1% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois 0.0% 6.7% 31.4% 39.5% 21.0% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northwestern 6.1% 21.2% 37.9% 27.1% 7.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
B1G East Season Wins 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Ohio State 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 2.9% 12.3% 37.3% 37.3% 10.1%
Michigan State 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 7.2% 29.4% 43.8% 19.3%
Maryland 0.0% 0.0% 2.8% 20.6% 38.3% 29.0% 9.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Indiana 4.2% 20.7% 34.8% 28.5% 10.8% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Michigan 9.6% 32.4% 40.1% 15.4% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Penn State 0.0% 4.5% 23.7% 35.9% 25.5% 8.8% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Rutgers 0.0% 0.0% 19.0% 42.9% 30.5% 7.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%

THOR+ gives Michigan State the best chance to finish the season 11-1, thanks to hosting Ohio State at home in two weeks. It also gives Nebraska slightly better odds of finishing 11-1 for that same reason, though there really isn't all that much difference between the two teams' odds.

B1G West Conference Wins 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Nebraska 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 9.6% 35.5% 41.7% 12.4% 0.0%
Wisconsin 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 4.9% 16.5% 36.3% 30.2% 11.8% 0.0%
Iowa 0.0% 0.0% 2.7% 18.3% 34.6% 27.7% 14.5% 2.2% 0.0%
Minnesota 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.2% 41.1% 34.4% 9.9% 0.4% 0.0%
Purdue 0.0% 12.4% 34.6% 38.6% 13.1% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois 0.0% 6.7% 31.5% 39.4% 21.0% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northwestern 0.0% 0.0% 7.3% 26.2% 39.5% 22.9% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0%
B1G East Conference Wins 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Ohio State 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 2.9% 12.3% 37.4% 37.2% 10.1%
Michigan State 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 7.2% 29.4% 43.9% 19.2%
Maryland 0.0% 0.0% 2.7% 20.6% 38.4% 29.0% 9.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Indiana 4.2% 20.7% 34.9% 28.4% 10.8% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Michigan 0.0% 9.7% 32.4% 40.1% 15.3% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Penn State 0.0% 11.8% 37.6% 34.9% 13.0% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rutgers 0.0% 19.0% 42.8% 30.6% 7.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Because of what I just said above, THOR+ is leaning toward a Michigan State vs. Nebraska Big Ten Championship game. Although, after a 52-7 smashing of Maryland, Wisconsin suddenly finds themselves with pretty good odds of winning the Big Ten West. Don't count the Badgers out just yet.

Here are each team's mean, maximum, and minimum wins:

B1G West Mean Wins Min. Wins Max. Wins Mean B1G Wins Min B1G Wins Max B1G Wins
Nebraska 9.6 7 11 5.6 3 7
Wisconsin 8.3 5 10 5.3 2 7
Iowa 7.4 5 10 4.4 2 7
Minnesota 7.4 6 10 4.4 3 7
Purdue 4.6 3 7 2.6 1 5
Illinois 5.8 4 8 2.8 1 5
Northwestern 5.1 3 8 3.9 2 6
B1G East Mean Wins Min. Wins Max. Wins Mean B1G Wins Min B1G Wins Max B1G Wins
Ohio State 9.4 6 11 6.4 3 8
Michigan State 9.7 7 11 6.7 4 8
Maryland 7.2 5 9 4.2 2 6
Indiana 5.2 3 8 2.2 0 5
Michigan 4.7 3 7 2.7 1 5
Penn State 6.2 4 9 2.6 1 5
Rutgers 6.3 5 9 2.3 1 5

And, finally, here are the projected odds for each remaining Big Ten game.

Big Ten West

Iowa

Date Iowa Projected Win%
11/1 vs. Northwestern 68.8%
11/8 at Minnesota 37.6%
11/15 at Illinois 42.8%
11/22 vs. Wisconsin 45.0%
11/28 vs. Nebraska 44.8%

A big Wisconsin win this past weekend, made an already tough November slate that much more difficult for the Hawkeyes.

Nebraska

Date Nebraska Projected Win%
11/1 vs. Purdue 84.2%
11/15 at Wisconsin 33.3%
11/22 vs. Minnesota 81.4%
11/28 at Iowa 55.2%

Wisconsin

Date Wisconsin Projected Win%
11/1 at Rutgers 65.6%
11/8 at Purdue 60.7%
11/15 vs. Nebraska 66.7%
11/22 at Iowa 55.0%
11/29 vs. Minnesota 81.2%

We constantly talk about Iowa's schedule being easy, but this is also pretty marshmallowy. Wisconsin's final three opponents are tough, but Iowa's the only road game in that trio. That's pretty favorable for the Badgers. And that November 15th matchup with Nebraska could be for the Big Ten West.

Minnesota

Date Minnesota Projected Win%
11/8 vs. Iowa 62.4%
11/15 vs. Ohio State 42.1%
11/22 at Nebraska 18.6%
11/29 at Wisconsin 18.8%

Northwestern

Date Northwestern Projected Win%
11/1 at Iowa 31.2%
11/8 vs. Michigan 61.5%
11/15 at Notre Dame 18.9%
11/22 at Purdue 36.4%
11/29 vs. Illinois 62.1%

Purdue

Date Purdue Projected Win%
11/1 at Nebraska 15.8%
11/8 vs. Wisconsin 39.3%
11/22 vs. Northwestern 63.6%
11/29 at Indiana 36.2%

Illinois

Date Illinois Projected Win%
11/1 at Ohio State 14.2%
11/15 vs. Iowa 57.2%
11/22 vs. Penn State 63.2%
11/29 at Northwestern 37.9%

Big Ten East

Ohio State

Date Ohio State Projected Win%
11/1 vs. Illinois 85.8%
11/8 at Michigan State 33.6%
11/15 at Minnesota 57.9%
11/22 vs. Indiana 85.1%
11/29 vs. Michigan 85.4%

Michigan State

Date Michigan State Projected Win%
11/8 vs. Ohio State 66.4%
11/15 at Maryland 49.3%
11/22 vs. Rutgers 87.4%
11/29 at Penn State 62.4%

Maryland

Date Maryland Projected Win%
11/1 at Penn State 49.3%
11/15 vs. Michigan State 50.7%
11/22 at Michigan 48.1%
11/29 vs. Rutgers 77.6%

Yes, Maryland fans, THOR+ still has Maryland ever so slightly favored vs. Michigan State. It's currently a coin toss, and things can definitely change. And, no, I don't expect Maryland to win that game, no matter if THOR+ does or not.

Michigan

Date Michigan Projected Win%
11/1 vs. Indiana 62.1%
11/8 at Northwestern 38.5%
11/22 vs. Maryland 51.9%
11/29 at Ohio State 14.6%

Penn State

Date Penn State Projected Win%
11/1 vs. Maryland 50.7%
11/8 at Indiana 35.5%
11/15 vs. Temple 59.6%
11/22 at Illinois 36.8%
11/29 vs. Michigan State 37.6%

Indiana

Date Indiana Projected Win%
11/1 at Michigan 37.9%
11/8 vs. Penn State 64.5%
11/15 at Rutgers 43.4%
11/22 at Ohio State 14.9%
11/29 vs. Purdue 63.8%

Rutgers

Date Rutgers Projected Win%
11/1 vs. Wisconsin 34.4%
11/15 vs. Indiana 56.6%
11/22 at Michigan State 12.6%
11/29 at Maryland 22.4%