We're deep into the season, now, so statistics become meaningful.

I've been struck at the befuddlement of the PSU message boards, which I would summarize as "WTF?  Why in hell didn't we do crap in the red zone?"

Well, the stats are pretty interesting with this Iowa D. 

My favorite stat of the week we mentioned last week.  But apparently no one in the PSU gang thought about it.  Iowa is second in league red zone D.

More notably,  the team in position one, MSU, has given up 80% more red zone touchdowns.  (The statistic conflates FGs and TDs.)

Iowa has given up 5 redzone TDs in 10 games.  By this measure, Saturday's performance was no fluke.

5 red zone TDs is lowest in the Big Ten, though we're tied with OSU and ... Minnesota. MN is 8th in total, rushing, and passing D.  This indicates that people are hitting the big plays against the Gofers.

"JJohnson-Koulianos was a regular at the team's Tuesday gatherings with the media early in the season. That, too, has changed since the start of October. More specifically, it changed after Johnson-Koulianos conducted interviews Sept. 29 wearing sunglasses and a mesh hat.

"I took him off the Tuesday list," Ferentz said. "We're working on his dress code. That's really not what we're looking for."

http://hawkcentral.press-citizen.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20081105/HAWKS0104/811050329/1053

Anyone see what Clinton Portis wears at a press conference?  I suppose he should be stopped, benched, publicly ridiculed, too:

You think DJK is out of line?

Personally, I would prefer that DJK not wear women's underwear to his press conferences with the poodles, donkeys, suck-ups of the Iowa media (you know, the ones who never ask why our OC can't get plays in on time?).  

But if he did, I'd ask him, "You know, DJK, my girlfriend says there's nothing like La Perla.  Now, what's up with the 55 year-old OC not able to call a play in time?"

Rules for Game Planning Iowa:

Do not game plan the unknown.  There is no unknown when playing Iowa.   They play offensive rock-scissors-paper with just a rock and a pair of scissors; the paper they leave back in the office file drawer.  They run 9 plays, and for each situation, choose 1 of 2 or 1 of 3.  It is Lombardi offensive football all the way: they execute their handful of plays extremely well, or they lose.  Since you have paper and they don't, you have 150% of their options.  It's a super-sophisticated game theory problem!   (You also have 10 years of identical film to study.  So, rock-paper-scissors and near-statistical certainty.)

Do not try to beat the Iowa defense, unless you are a top 5 team, talent-wise.  You can't.  You will complete some underneath routes over the middle -- before they pick you off a couple of times.  (They lead the league with 16.)  They appear to have fixed that 250-lb.-human-covering-track-stars issue.  They will not miss tackles and they will knock you senseless.  They are tough as hell in the red zone, and lead the league in red zone D, are second in scoring D, third in total D.

Do try to beat Iowa by beating their offense, by:

a.  On third and short, in a game critical situation, with Greene in the game, blitz to the fullback and blow him up (MSU and IL did), everyone else key on Greene.  It's the one time you will take him before he is going downhill.  So far this year, their tendency in this situation is nearly 100%.  The one time they didn't run this play, in this situation, uh, they threw for six (IN).

b.  On third and long, assume play action waggle right (remember, they play with only rock and scissors, no paper), and blitz and overload the backside, so that the RB in max protect has to choose between two guys.  One will blindside the QB and likely strip him (MSU and IL did).  Their QB is much more comfortable throwing on the run, but he can't see what's behind him.

c.  Hope that the OC, with the game's best RB and a strong O-Line, scripts pass first. Iowa has now lost four games in which it controlled the LOS.  Iowa is the rare .500 team that is second in the league in rushing D, and third in rushing O -- and second in league first downs.  Iowa is a statistical anomaly of the first rank, and it ain't the players' problem.  For a Lombardi enthusiast, this OC is weird.

d.  Hope that the OC, with the game's best RB, conducts his only run-centric series with the freshman #2 back -- even when that series straddles a quarter break, and the game's best RB isn't tired because he's been blocking all quarter.  For some reason, Iowa will go out for hamburger when they have steak at home.  Beats me, too.

e.  Remember that the OC scripts the game on Tuesday, and makes no in-game adjustments based on what is actually happening in front of his face.  You may not believe what you are seeing, since you're watching the actual game.  But it's not, actually, a set-up for something deceptive.  Lombardi thought deception was for wimps.  No wimps at Iowa.  QED.

f.  Remember that Iowa has run maybe two reverses all year to punish teams for collapsing the middle and attempting to stop Greene's cutback on the zone read.  Sell out for the zone read, single cutback, and cross your fingers that Greene doesn't send one of your DBs to the hospital.  Now, another guy might say, I have a slash (ex-QB) at flanker, they're collapsing on Greene, let's run that reverse a few times and then throw off it.  But that guy?  His name is Zorn, and he don't live in Iowa City.

g.  Iowa fullbacks touch the ball every third game, and one of the wideouts (DJK) is curiously thin in his involvement.  It's very charitable of them, removing 2-3 eligible receivers from every pass play.  If your strong safety doesn't get nosy and you have decent linebackers, their seam route won't work and you have a shot at stopping Greene if your D-Line is active enough.  (If you let the O-line get to the second level, the game is over and you have lost -- unless of course, the OC has decided not to run the ball.  He does that in about half of their games.)

h.  There is no quick-read pass checkdown capability in the Iowa offense.  Your linebackers will have a blast playing north-south.  No side-to-side stuff against this team.

i.  If you double the TEs on the crossing routes, the QB may well throw it in there anyway, because no one has doubled them before IL, and he is too young to check down beyond his first two reads, and because they're running max protect with both backs out of the action anyway.

So, the strength of the Iowa offense is its strength.  They might be tougher in the trench than OSU this year.  You might catch them when they choose to ignore their primary strength.   No one thinks they have played their best game yet.  It's just that they don't believe in running what works until it doesn't, and strangely lack confidence that what we're seeing in the games and in the stats each week is actually true.  Oh well.

Errors, above, are of course my responsibility.  Thinking? Chris Brown did it for me.

Reasons To Be Cheerful:

Foremost among them:

1.  PSU is our next Ferentz Signature Game.  And it's at home.  PSU is not better than Texas a few years ago.  And Wisconsin held them to 3.x yards per carry.  Oh, and we get them the week after they play OSU.  Let's hope that they beat OSU and then ... who knows?

2.  Greene is *still* only 80-90%.  He will be 100%, though, for the Zook.

3.  KOK introduces two new plays!!!  One so flabbergasts the Wisconsin D that we go 34 yards for six!!! (That was the pitch sweep to Who Else.)  And, mirabile dictu! Another new play!  We run out of the shotgun!  Shades of June Jones!  Do you think .... maybe .... there's season enough remaining to introduce another New Play?  So we could have Three New Plays for the season?  A Season of New Plays?

4.  I think the players are having fun.  Perhaps it has to do with beating the living shit out of each team they play, or perhaps it is just good coaching.  But it's been *years* since I've seen an Iowa team play with the sort of joy and abandon we're seeing out there.  I mean, you can giggle just watching the blocking.  The linemen are 10 yards downfield, burying people who then take an injury timeout. 

5.  We killed them but we actually weren't that sharp: 1/10 on third down, 7 penalties.  On offense, we didn't, actually, execute, according to the Ferentz usage of the term.  It didn't matter.   Maybe these coaches are wondering why they didn't adapt their offense to Shonn a few years ago, before he learned how to be "efficient in our system, and execute."

6.  Does King play outside linebacker in a 3-4 in the pros?  He's that quick.  (cf. Roth)

7.  And, I have to admit it: a little schadenfreude.  Bulimia couldn't give us credit for kicking their butts ("Wisconsin beat Wisconsin"), so schadenfreude is the order of the day.  Well, the guy is in trouble.  He's an inarticulate, self-centered, bloviating coat-tail man.  He's 7-8 in his last 15.  He's a blame-shifter.  He's a defensive coach and his guys don't tackle.  His guys are playing scared.

8.  Was this game so good that we are at risk of overlooking Illinois, in anticipation of PSU?

Reasons To Be Skeptical about Being Cheerful:

1.  Our demented OC is apparently devoted to achieving a Perfect Game.  That's why we work on stuff that we don't need in order to win, or why we don't risk a busted play by doing things with more innovation.  It's fascinating but also excruciating to watch D-I football turned into a clinic or scrimmage.  I've no doubt, someday, our offense will throw a Perfect Game.  (I actually had money down a few years ago that Tate would be 20/20 some Saturday.)  In the meantime, I hope we shake shit up and get Greene the ball in the broken field.  More.

2.  We do not have the anticipatory safety play needed in the cover-2.  

3.  Illinois scored 55.  They have reasons to be cheerful too.

That was an R&B song in the day.  

Anyway, the reasons why I think this Iowa team is special:

a.  We have a Prodigal Son at RB, and he knows it.  The guy must have been really fat, because he's still putting it together after week 7 -- yet, he's better than the #1 back in the country. Why did we let him drift away?  Why did we let him move furniture instead of down markers?  Don't know.  Now he's back, doing what only he can do.  So, given a Prodigal Son, we have the best narrative.  MSU has a little guy who would push Jewel.  BFD.  Ringer might be a third down back for a couple of years in the NFL.  Like I care.  Shonn might be Jamal Lewis.  I think, maybe, I'll take Jamal.

b.  Jake didn't quit.  cf. Bates.  Jake deserves a standing ovation the next time he trots onto the field, and shame on everyone if he doesn't get one.

c.  We are putting the hurt on tough teams.  They ran out of meat wagons at MSU, and that is not a cupcake franchise.  That is the state of Michigan.  Indiana?  They're lucky KOK thought it was a scrimmage and he had to "work on a few things."  The illogic of our offense prevented a 70-whatever whipping.  Fry (MIke Leach) does not stop at 45 on that day, folks.

d.  Mitch King and Matt Kroul.  Fuck me.  These guys are Iowa football and will always be.

e.  We have more than 3 DBs and they all want to be on the field.  And Sash looks like the next Iowa-NFL free safety.  He's stacked, and he wraps.  Just a prediction.

f.  We are playing walk-ons again, and we do well when we do (and they weigh a lot).   

g.  Most importantly.  Yes.  Most importantly, we own the LOS.  Either I am too old, or everyone is playing the Navy Triple-O, or suddenly, our guys are going to turn into 'finesse' linemen.  But last I checked: seven games, seven times we owned the LOS.  Perhaps I am blah-blah-blah, but you don't win in football unless you own the LOS.  The reason why the NFL is boring?  Nobody owns the LOS.  We do.  Who will contest us there?  Maybe Wisconsin (but unskilled elsewhere); certainly PSU (dangerous elsewhere).  Frankly, I'll be pleased to just beat the shit out of the rest of the guys we play, and I hope we do.  We are good at it and we should.  Please, please stop throwing over the top the next time we are cleat-stomping them nonstop behind Bulaga and Olsen.  We play Ohio/PA football, and for those who haven't, that means, you throw the ball *after* they have solved the run, not in anticipation that they will.  

Okay.  So.  Why this team is not special:

a.  If Directional U. needed an OC, our OC would not get an interview.  Think about it.  He wouldn't.  Soup?  He'd get an interview.  Soup is the only guy who gets an interview to be an assistant at WMU.  WTF?

b.  We cover slots on wheel routes with 250 lb. humans?  WTF?  No one has noticed yet?  Sure, it's incredible when Greenway and Edds succeed.  When they don't?  We lose the fucking game, because this is what everyone brings with the game on the line.  Make the 250 lb. human cover the 185 lb. dervish?  Come on.  

That's it.

Face it, win or lose (and we'll lose more, but not because of the athletes), this is a team to appreciate.  God I love football.  

Don't you?

Who amongst us has seen an Iowa team so punish an opponent (what, six defensive Spartans leave with a limp) -- and lose?

Who amongst us has seen an Iowa team so dominate the LOS while shutting down the #2 runner in the country -- and lose?

Gee whiz, is this another game without a new play we didn't run in 2001?

Gee whiz, who amongst us has seen us open a drive with a play action bootleg?  (Well, all of us, as has the MSU DC.)

Iowa has some real stud ballplayers like I have never seen and I'm really sorry they have now had to carry their nimrod coaches to three losses in three games.

But please, no more postings about how "We're better than they are" -- like last week, and that includes the spanking storming man.  Yeah, we dominated them physically and we are better at every position except wide-out.  But we *lost* another one.  Because football requires design, and design is handled by the coaches.  And if your ballplayers are dropping the ball for no reason it's because they are seriously twisted in the head -- and that's on the coaches.  

After we lost to Pitt I wrote that Shonn was a 2nd round pick.  Wrong.  He's a 1st round pick.  Olsen and Bulaga are locks in the top three rounds, Edds needs to get with a program that doesn't put 250 lb men in man coverage on slots 40 yards downfield (like, the Bears?), and Sash is the real deal.  This guy Leppard?  Where the fuck did he come from?  Wow.  We tackled really well this day.  Everything went right, except the sideline decisionmaking, didn't it?   Didn't it?

Mason burns two subordinates two days before her own evaluation at the Board.  

"What?  You expect me to take responsibility for what my staff does at my direction?"

I guess you have to be in the private sector to find this most obvious move (it was obvious when she said her GC was not attending the Board meeting) puerile. 

Is the Board of Regents truly this lacking?  Will they really allow her to sacrifice arbitrarily two staff in hopes of keeping her job?  

I particularly enjoy the GC pro tem's resume: she's been on every committee including the Cedar County Garbage Truck Multi-Cultural Self-Improvement Redecoration Planning Commission.  

Anyone who is doing three paragraphs of committee work is a lawyer I won't be hiring to solve a problem.  Though I'm sure the garbage trucks are now painted a soft and friendly color, and the minor issue of institutional indifference to the plight of a scholarship student accusing another (two) or rape, is rapidly headed out of town, to the landfill. 

Will someone out there call her on this?  

Man, I hope the Regents are not so go-along-get-along to tolerate this kind of Amateur Hour gambit.   Will they?  Got leadership?