Bio: Junior, 6-5, 2-8 (Cedar Rapids, IA)
2012-13 stats: 16.2 minutes per game, 4.5 points per game, 1.4 rebounds per game, 1.0 assists per game, .274 FG%, .269 3FG%
What we saw last season
Way too much hesitation and reluctance to take the freaking shot already and way too many missed three-pointers. Oglesby went from making 40% of his shots (.398) as a freshman, including 37% of his threes, to the ghastly numbers up above: matching 27% completion percentages from the floor overall and from deep. With Matt Gatens' departure, the plan was for Oglesby to step up and become Iowa's primary three-point weapon. He did attempt more 3s than anyone else on the team (156)... he just didn't convert nearly enough of them. Oglesby did continue to play solid defense on the perimeter for Iowa, though, which enabled him to remain on the floor even as his shots weren't falling.
What we need to see this season
This is simple: he needs to shoot better from long range. That's it. There's more to Oglesby's game than just hoisting three-pointers (as noted above, he's an underrated defender and in the past he's shown more aptitude at finishing near the rim than you might expect from a long-range specialist), but the main reason he's here is to stretch the floor and provide an effective three-point threat for Iowa. He wasn't able to do that last year and for the sake of both his playing time and Iowa's overall success this year, he really needs to be able to convert more 3s this year. Ideally, he would convert them at a rate similar to his freshman year (37%), but I'd settle for seeing him make at least one-third of his threes (33%).
Oglesby returns from his recent foot injury (which should happen around the beginning of 2014) and is reborn as a devastating outside shooter, making 35-40% of his three-point attempts and becoming the much-needed panacea to Iowa's long-range shooting woes. He follows that up by making the game-winning three-pointer to clinch a Big Ten Tournament championship in Indianapolis, making #Ogles3 trend on Twitter nationwide, and immortalizing himself in Hawkeye lore. (Hey, this is the best-case scenario, alright?)
Most likely scenario
Oglesby returns from his injury and struggles from deep in his first few games, given the rust from his layoff and the pressure he feels from the need to improve on last year's performance. Eventually, he does begin making threes at a more acceptable rate and he ends the season making around 33% of his threes, giving Iowa a three-point shooter that defenses have to afford at least a modicum of respect.
One: take more shots. There were few things as frustrating last year as seeing Oglesby pass up wide-open looks at three. If he has a good look, he needs to take it. Period. That also means not hesitating when he has a shot; catch and shoot, Josh, catch and shoot. Two: please, please, please, please make more shots. I can't bear to see another 27% shooting performance from deep again.