Week 5 was an interesting one in college football nationwide, and the oddities sure didn't escape the Big Ten. Ohio State and Michigan State both continued to fail to live up to poll rankings, squeaking out wins against teams from the state of Indiana. Nebraska continued to lose in hilariously agonizing fashion (LOL). Meanwhile, Iowa and Northwestern look like early favorites in the Big Ten West and Michigan looks like they could win the East. Just how we predicted it 5 weeks ago, right?
Now, since all Big Ten teams but Rutgers have played 5 games, all Big Ten teams but Rutgers now have ratings and win projections that are no longer influenced by preseason projections. That is good news for a team like Iowa, whose preseason numbers were holding back its offensive rating. That's not nearly as good of news for someone like Michigan State, whose preseason projections were helping it in just about every category.
Let's talk win projections, shall we?
THOR+ Rank | B1G West Season Wins | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
10 | Iowa | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 5.4% | 16.7% | 29.6% | 32.0% | 16.1% |
33 | Wisconsin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 1.3% | 4.0% | 16.6% | 29.0% | 28.0% | 17.2% | 3.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
37 | Northwestern | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 3.8% | 14.4% | 31.4% | 28.9% | 16.5% | 4.1% | 0.5% |
47 | Illinois | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.5% | 15.1% | 30.0% | 28.0% | 17.0% | 5.5% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
49 | Nebraska | 0.0% | 0.9% | 6.5% | 15.6% | 24.9% | 29.1% | 16.8% | 5.5% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
74 | Purdue | 1.9% | 11.8% | 25.9% | 29.5% | 21.2% | 8.5% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
80 | Minnesota | 0.0% | 0.0% | 5.7% | 18.6% | 34.3% | 25.9% | 11.8% | 3.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
THOR+ Rank | B1G East Season Wins | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
9 | Michigan | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 4.7% | 15.5% | 33.6% | 31.6% | 14.0% | 0.0% |
23 | Ohio State | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 2.8% | 12.2% | 26.7% | 33.7% | 20.1% | 4.2% |
42 | Michigan State | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 2.9% | 9.4% | 27.1% | 28.3% | 22.0% | 9.1% | 0.8% |
60 | Penn State | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.3% | 7.8% | 21.8% | 31.5% | 24.3% | 10.4% | 2.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
92 | Maryland | 0.0% | 5.5% | 22.4% | 33.6% | 24.1% | 11.9% | 2.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
96 | Indiana | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 5.9% | 21.0% | 34.1% | 25.7% | 10.4% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
99 | Rutgers | 0.0% | 4.4% | 18.5% | 29.9% | 27.5% | 13.6% | 4.9% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Yeah, yeah, yeah. Michigan sits in the driver's seat again this week, but screw them. The real news is Iowa.
To quote last week's power rankings:
If Iowa is able to win this game, the win projections will likely be off the charts next week.
As you are probably all aware, Iowa did, in fact, win that game. And, as you can see, the win projections are, in fact, off the charts. Not literally, of course. That would make the chart useless. But I digress.
You may be wondering how the Hawkeyes continue to shoot up the charts? Especially after a 10-6 win that wasn't exactly pretty in all areas. Well, THOR+ has bumped them from #26 to #10 this week for a couple of reasons. First, the preseason projections are no longer holding back their offensive numbers. Second, THOR+ still has Wisconsin at #33 in the nation, which helped Iowa's strength of schedule. That is how Iowa continues to rise up the charts in THOR+'s eyes. And I feel like I say this every week, but this week I really am a bit skeptical about their overall ranking. But whether they are #10, #22, or whatever, it actually may not affect their win probabilities all that much, so whatever.
THOR+ Rank | B1G West Conference Wins | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
10 | Iowa | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 5.4% | 16.7% | 29.6% | 32.0% | 16.1% |
33 | Wisconsin | 0.1% | 1.3% | 4.0% | 16.6% | 29.0% | 28.0% | 17.2% | 3.8% | 0.0% |
37 | Northwestern | 0.0% | 0.4% | 3.8% | 14.4% | 31.4% | 28.9% | 16.5% | 4.1% | 0.5% |
47 | Illinois | 0.0% | 3.5% | 15.1% | 30.0% | 28.0% | 17.0% | 5.5% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
49 | Nebraska | 0.9% | 6.5% | 15.6% | 24.9% | 29.1% | 16.8% | 5.5% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
74 | Purdue | 1.9% | 11.8% | 25.9% | 29.5% | 21.2% | 8.5% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
80 | Minnesota | 5.7% | 18.6% | 34.3% | 25.9% | 11.8% | 3.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
THOR+ Rank | B1G East Conference Wins | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
9 | Michigan | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 4.7% | 15.5% | 33.6% | 31.6% | 14.0% |
23 | Ohio State | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 2.8% | 12.2% | 26.7% | 33.7% | 20.1% | 4.2% |
42 | Michigan State | 0.0% | 0.4% | 2.9% | 9.4% | 27.1% | 28.3% | 22.0% | 9.1% | 0.8% |
60 | Penn State | 0.0% | 1.3% | 7.8% | 21.8% | 31.5% | 24.3% | 10.4% | 2.6% | 0.3% |
92 | Maryland | 5.5% | 22.4% | 33.6% | 24.1% | 11.9% | 2.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
96 | Indiana | 5.9% | 21.0% | 34.1% | 25.7% | 10.4% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
99 | Rutgers | 6.5% | 23.1% | 33.6% | 24.6% | 9.1% | 2.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
As for the conference win projections, Iowa has the best odds in the West, but it's still early. Wisconsin still has the same easy schedule as the Hawks and Northwestern's defense will keep them hanging around against just about anyone.
In the East, Michigan continues to pull away in the win projections, thanks largely to Ohio State's continued offensive struggles and Michigan State's inability to look the part against clearly inferior opponents.
And, per usual, here are the mean, max, and min wins for each team:
THOR+ | B1G West | Mean Wins | Min. Wins | Max. Wins | Mean B1G Wins | Min B1G Wins | Max B1G Wins |
10 | Iowa | 10.4 | 7 | 12 | 6.4 | 3 | 8 |
33 | Wisconsin | 7.5 | 3 | 10 | 4.5 | 0 | 7 |
37 | Northwestern | 8.5 | 5 | 12 | 4.5 | 1 | 8 |
47 | Illinois | 6.6 | 4 | 10 | 3.6 | 1 | 7 |
49 | Nebraska | 5.5 | 2 | 9 | 3.5 | 0 | 7 |
74 | Purdue | 3.9 | 1 | 8 | 2.9 | 0 | 7 |
80 | Minnesota | 5.3 | 3 | 10 | 2.3 | 0 | 7 |
THOR+ | B1G East | Mean Wins | Min. Wins | Max. Wins | Mean B1G Wins | Min B1G Wins | Max B1G Wins |
9 | Michigan | 9.3 | 6 | 11 | 6.3 | 3 | 8 |
23 | Ohio State | 9.7 | 6 | 12 | 5.7 | 2 | 8 |
42 | Michigan State | 8.9 | 5 | 12 | 4.9 | 1 | 8 |
60 | Penn State | 7.1 | 4 | 11 | 4.1 | 1 | 8 |
92 | Maryland | 4.2 | 2 | 8 | 2.2 | 0 | 6 |
96 | Indiana | 6.2 | 4 | 10 | 2.2 | 0 | 6 |
99 | Rutgers | 4.5 | 2 | 10 | 2.2 | 0 | 7 |
Lastly, remember that the "THOR+ Record" included under every team is a running tally of how well THOR+ has done picking each game straight up this season. THOR+ is 50-12 (80.6%) picking Big Ten games this season, which is a little higher than the 77.4% it is in all FBS games for 2015. But there are clearly teams that it has done better with (most of the Big Ten East), and others it has had to adjust expectations on (Iowa, Indiana, Northwestern).
Big Ten West
Iowa
Date | Iowa | Team | Rank | Projected Win% |
9/5 | Home | Illinios State | FCS | W |
9/12 | Away | Iowa State | 63 | W |
9/19 | Home | Pittsburgh | 38 | W |
9/26 | Home | North Texas | 125 | W |
10/3 | Away | Wisconsin | 33 | W |
10/10 | Home | Illinois | 47 | 78% |
10/17 | Away | Northwestern | 37 | 56% |
10/31 | Home | Maryland | 92 | 88% |
11/7 | Away | Indiana | 96 | 79% |
11/14 | Home | Minnesota | 80 | 85% |
11/21 | Home | Purdue | 74 | 84% |
11/27 | Away | Nebraska | 49 | 64% |
THOR+ Record: 2-2 (50%)
Iowa's numbers make me incredibly happy, but fill me with an incredible amount of anxiety. This schedule is ridiculously manageable, though, so let's all pray to our deities of choice that there are no bad injuries/team wide implosions down the stretch. Otherwise, this could be really fun, you guys.
Illinois
Date | Illinois | Team | Rank | Projected Win% |
9/5 | Home | Kent State | 112 | W |
9/12 | Home | W. Illinois | FCS | W |
9/19 | Away | North Carolina | 15 | L |
9/26 | Home | Middle Tennessee | 46 | W |
10/3 | Home | Nebraska | 49 | W |
10/10 | Away | Iowa | 10 | 22% |
10/24 | Home | Wisconsin | 33 | 48% |
10/31 | Away | Penn State | 60 | 47% |
11/7 | Away | Purdue | 74 | 53% |
11/14 | Home | Ohio State | 23 | 43% |
11/21 | Away | Minnesota | 80 | 55% |
11/28 | Neutral | Northwestern | 37 | 43% |
THOR+ Record: 4-0 (100%)
THOR+ missed on the Iowa/Wisconsin game last week, but it called the Illinois/Nebraska one right. As it stands, Illinois doesn't look great, but their defense looks pretty good. That's good enough to make most of their remaining games look like coin flips, but there still aren't any guaranteed wins.
Minnesota
Date | Minnesota | Team | Rank | Projected Win% |
9/3 | Home | TCU | 32 | L |
9/12 | Away | Colorado State | 71 | W |
9/19 | Home | Kent State | 112 | W |
9/26 | Home | Ohio | 43 | W |
10/3 | Away | Northwestern | 37 | L |
10/10 | Away | Purdue | 74 | 41% |
10/17 | Home | Nebraska | 49 | 46% |
10/31 | Home | Michigan | 9 | 25% |
11/7 | Away | Ohio State | 23 | 20% |
11/14 | Away | Iowa | 10 | 15% |
11/21 | Home | Illinois | 47 | 45% |
11/28 | Home | Wisconsin | 33 | 36% |
THOR+ Record: 4-1 (80%)
Minnesota had a tough schedule when THOR+ thought they were pretty good at the beginning of the year, and that still has yet to change now that the Gophers look pretty horrible right now. There is likely no fix for the offense in 2015, and with injuries piling up, the defense may continue to get worse, too.
Nebraska
Date | Nebraska | Team | Rank | Projected Win% |
9/5 | Home | BYU | 65 | L |
9/12 | Home | South Alabama | 120 | W |
9/19 | Away | Miami (Florida) | 56 | L |
9/26 | Home | Southern Mississippi | 55 | W |
10/3 | Away | Illinois | 47 | L |
10/10 | Home | Wisconsin | 33 | 47% |
10/17 | Away | Minnesota | 80 | 54% |
10/24 | Home | Northwestern | 37 | 49% |
10/31 | Away | Purdue | 74 | 52% |
11/7 | Home | Michigan State | 42 | 53% |
11/14 | Away | Rutgers | 99 | 62% |
11/28 | Home | Iowa | 10 | 36% |
THOR+ Record: 4-1 (80%)
This is your weekly reminder that Nebraska still has a schedule that's not much tougher than Iowa's or Wisconsin's, outside of a home game with Michigan State. Of course, that won't help them win the West if they continue to go splodey at the end of every game.
Northwestern
Date | Northwestern | Team | Rank | Projected Win% |
9/5 | Home | Stanford | 2 | W |
9/12 | Home | Eastern Illinois | FCS | W |
9/19 | Away | Duke | 31 | W |
9/26 | Home | Ball State | 93 | W |
10/3 | Home | Minnesota | 80 | W |
10/10 | Away | Michigan | 9 | 26% |
10/17 | Home | Iowa | 10 | 44% |
10/24 | Away | Nebraska | 49 | 51% |
11/7 | Home | Penn State | 60 | 68% |
11/14 | Home | Purdue | 74 | 73% |
11/21 | Away | Wisconsin | 33 | 40% |
11/28 | Neutral | Illinois | 47 | 57% |
THOR+ Record: 2-2 (50%)
Northwestern's win probabilities continue to increase every week, but it's not because their anemic offense has found its footing. It's because their Defense+ rating continues to rise out of the stratosphere. Seriously, though, if you thought the 17-9 THOR+ projection for the Minnesota game was ugly last week, just wait until you see the Michigan one this week. You won't be disappointed.
Purdue
Date | Purdue | Team | Rank | Projected Win% |
9/6 | Away | Marshall | 78 | L |
9/12 | Home | Indiana State | FCS | W |
9/19 | Home | Virginia Tech | 69 | L |
9/26 | Home | Bowling Green | 66 | L |
10/3 | Away | Michigan State | 42 | L |
10/10 | Home | Minnesota | 80 | 59% |
10/17 | Away | Wisconsin | 33 | 25% |
10/31 | Home | Nebraska | 49 | 48% |
11/7 | Home | Illinois | 47 | 47% |
11/14 | Away | Northwestern | 37 | 27% |
11/21 | Away | Iowa | 10 | 16% |
11/28 | Home | Indiana | 96 | 66% |
THOR+ Record: 3-1 (75%)
Purdue just can't catch a break this year. And even with THOR+ liking Purdue slightly this week over Minnesota, I am fully expecting the Boilers to blow a late lead in heart-breaking fashion.
Wisconsin
Date | Wisconsin | Team | Rank | Projected Win% |
9/5 | Neutral | Alabama | 3 | L |
9/12 | Home | Miami (Ohio) | 118 | W |
9/19 | Home | Troy | 106 | W |
9/26 | Home | Hawai'i | 98 | W |
10/3 | Home | Iowa | 10 | L |
10/10 | Away | Nebraska | 49 | 53% |
10/17 | Home | Purdue | 74 | 75% |
10/24 | Away | Illinois | 47 | 52% |
10/31 | Home | Rutgers | 99 | 82% |
11/7 | Away | Maryland | 92 | 69% |
11/21 | Home | Northwestern | 37 | 60% |
11/28 | Away | Minnesota | 80 | 64% |
THOR+ Record: 4-1 (80%)
Iowa owns the tiebreaker over the Badgers, but the Hawkeyes can't get complacent. Wisconsin could still win the division with this schedule.
Big Ten East
Indiana
Date | Indiana | Team | Rank | Projected Win% |
9/5 | Home | S. Illinois | FCS | W |
9/12 | Home | Florida International | 83 | W |
9/19 | Home | Western Kentucky | 20 | W |
9/26 | Away | Wake Forest | 82 | W |
10/3 | Home | Ohio State | 23 | L |
10/10 | Away | Penn State | 60 | 29% |
10/17 | Home | Rutgers | 99 | 59% |
10/24 | Away | Michigan State | 42 | 23% |
11/7 | Home | Iowa | 10 | 21% |
11/14 | Home | Michigan | 9 | 20% |
11/21 | Away | Maryland | 92 | 42% |
11/28 | Away | Purdue | 74 | 34% |
THOR+ Record: 2-2 (50%)
At this point, I'm pretty sure Indiana fans (if they even read this) think there is a special "penalize Indiana" variable in my formula for THOR+ because they are still ranked in the 90s, despite being 4-1. No, I don't think they are quite that bad after what they did against Ohio State down Jordan Howard and Nate Sudfeld for chunks of the game. But I don't think they are much higher than the 60s or the 70s. Maybe the 50s if they keep winning. But that looks like a big IF.
Maryland
Date | Maryland | Team | Rank | Projected Win% |
9/5 | Home | Richmond | FCS | W |
9/12 | Home | Bowling Green | 66 | L |
9/19 | Home | South Florida | 81 | W |
9/26 | Away | West Virginia | 30 | L |
10/3 | Home | Michigan | 9 | L |
10/10 | Away | Ohio State | 23 | 16% |
10/24 | Neutral | Penn State | 60 | 36% |
10/31 | Away | Iowa | 10 | 12% |
11/7 | Home | Wisconsin | 33 | 31% |
11/14 | Away | Michigan State | 42 | 24% |
11/21 | Home | Indiana | 96 | 58% |
11/28 | Away | Rutgers | 99 | 45% |
THOR+ Record: 3-1 (75%)
Seeing how I think Indiana is better than #96, I don't see Maryland winning the only remaining green game on their schedule. But Maryland has to pull off at least one win, right? The last two weeks of the season are definitely their best bet to do so.
Michigan
Date | Michigan | Team | Rank | Projected Win% |
9/3 | Away | Utah | 25 | L |
9/12 | Home | Oregon State | 90 | W |
9/19 | Home | UNLV | 57 | W |
9/26 | Home | BYU | 65 | W |
10/3 | Away | Maryland | 92 | W |
10/10 | Home | Northwestern | 37 | 74% |
10/17 | Home | Michigan State | 42 | 77% |
10/31 | Away | Minnesota | 80 | 75% |
11/7 | Home | Rutgers | 99 | 90% |
11/14 | Away | Indiana | 96 | 80% |
11/21 | Away | Penn State | 60 | 69% |
11/28 | Home | Ohio State | 23 | 68% |
THOR+ Record: 5-0 (100%)
Every week Michigan's numbers look more realistic to me, including that last game on the schedule. Odds are that they are going to slip up once or twice, but let's just hope that it's not this week.
Michigan State
Date | Michigan State | Team | Rank | Projected Win% |
9/4 | Away | Western Michigan | 97 | W |
9/12 | Home | Oregon | 87 | W |
9/19 | Home | Air Force | 68 | W |
9/26 | Home | Central Michigan | 89 | W |
10/3 | Home | Purdue | 74 | W |
10/10 | Away | Rutgers | 99 | 66% |
10/17 | Away | Michigan | 9 | 23% |
10/24 | Home | Indiana | 96 | 77% |
11/7 | Away | Nebraska | 49 | 47% |
11/14 | Home | Maryland | 92 | 76% |
11/21 | Away | Ohio State | 23 | 31% |
11/28 | Home | Penn State | 60 | 64% |
THOR+ Record: 5-0 (100%)
¯\_(ツ)_/¯ (They're still probably winning 9-10 games this year.)
Ohio State
Date | Ohio State | Team | Rank | Projected Win% |
9/7 | Away | Virginia Tech | 69 | W |
9/12 | Home | Hawai'i | 98 | W |
9/19 | Home | Northern Illinois | 50 | W |
9/26 | Home | Western Michigan | 97 | W |
10/3 | Away | Indiana | 96 | W |
10/10 | Home | Maryland | 92 | 84% |
10/17 | Home | Penn State | 60 | 75% |
10/24 | Away | Rutgers | 99 | 75% |
11/7 | Home | Minnesota | 80 | 80% |
11/14 | Away | Illinois | 47 | 57% |
11/21 | Home | Michigan State | 42 | 69% |
11/28 | Away | Michigan | 9 | 32% |
THOR+ Record: 5-0 (100%)
Ohio State was supposed to be more than well off at the quarterback position this year, instead their Passing+ rating is 12 percentage points below the FBS average and Cardale Jones and J.T. Barrett have both thrown as many interceptions as they have touchdowns. Ezekiel Elliot is a beast, though -- and the main reason they still have a shot at 12-0.
Penn State
Date | Penn State | Team | Rank | Projected Win% |
9/5 | Away | Temple | 39 | L |
9/12 | Home | Buffalo | 101 | W |
9/19 | Home | Rutgers | 99 | W |
9/26 | Home | San Diego State | 108 | W |
10/3 | Home | Army | 72 | W |
10/10 | Home | Indiana | 96 | 71% |
10/17 | Away | Ohio State | 23 | 25% |
10/24 | Neutral | Maryland | 92 | 64% |
10/31 | Home | Illinois | 47 | 53% |
11/7 | Away | Northwestern | 37 | 32% |
11/21 | Home | Michigan | 9 | 31% |
11/28 | Away | Michigan State | 42 | 36% |
THOR+ Record: 5-0 (100%)
Penn State barely beat Army in week 5 and James Franklin promptly went on a tirade against point spreads after the game. And that's it. That's all I got, because Franklin's speech was much more entertaining than the game itself was.
Rutgers
Date | Rutgers | Team | Rank | Projected Win% |
9/5 | Home | Norfolk State | FCS | W |
9/12 | Home | Washington State | 88 | L |
9/19 | Away | Penn State | 60 | L |
9/26 | Home | Kansas | 121 | W |
10/10 | Home | Michigan State | 42 | 34% |
10/17 | Away | Indiana | 96 | 41% |
10/24 | Home | Ohio State | 23 | 25% |
10/31 | Away | Wisconsin | 33 | 18% |
11/7 | Away | Michigan | 9 | 10% |
11/14 | Home | Nebraska | 49 | 38% |
11/21 | Away | Army | 72 | 32% |
11/28 | Home | Maryland | 92 | 55% |
THOR+ Record: 2-1 (66.7%)
The Scarlet Knights come off a win against the bye week, but is visited by Sparty in week 6. No, you cannot have another bye week, Rutgers.