(EDIT: BUMPED for some interesting analysis of some of Iowa's recent free-throw shooting woes. -- Ross)
To play off Gookin's earlier fanpost, Losing It Late, I thought I would share some one and one stats and thoughts. I originally started to look at free throws from the perspective of PPP. If Iowa averages 1.19 PPP, then what would they need to shoot at the free throw line to achieve that success. The team is shooting 72.1% last time I checked. If it were straight up 2 shots per free throw opportunity that would equate to 1.44 PPP. I'm probably mixing up PPP versus Kenpom Off Efficiency with Tempo taken into account.
At the same time, Iowa's problem isn't free throw shooting percentage overall and adding complexity to the calculation would be the impact of one and one situation. Thanks to Hawkeyesports.com box score information, I was able to go back through 10 games of information. I went back to the Xavier game, skipping Drake and FD simply for time, and to ensure the most competitive games were evaluated. I was able to extract from the box scores play by play all of the one and one situations. NOTE: there may have been some situations where a player was fouled in the act of shooting and made the first shot. Only once did a play miss the first shot and attempt a 2nd shot. I also, only identified 8 and one opportunities.
The main target for attempts were fouls 7 - 9 for the games mentioned in both 1st and 2nd halves.
Total Fouls - 53, Offensive - 2 (no foul shots), And One - 10, Shooting - 1
One and One - 40
Made 1st - 27
Made 2nd - 21
So, on the first shot of a one and one, as a team, Hawks are shooting 68%. And when attempting the 2nd shot the team is 75%. When you dig deeper into the numbers though one glaring thing stands out. Marble made only 2 of his 10 attempts. This means the rest of the team hit 25/31 for 81% and that was with Gesell going 1 for 3. Aaron White shot the second most 1n1 attempts and went 7 of 9. Notably for him was that on his 7 second attempts he was perfect 7 for 7. Other notables, were Jok and Olaseni each went 4 of 4 on the front ends while also going respectable 5 of 8 combined on the bonus.
Breaking down Marbles numbers further you'll see that in both ISU and Nova games he missed 2 front ends. And in ISU was one of the Gesell misses. Thus proving what most felt was a large contributor to those losses was free throws. Shooting 66% is not great but the fact Marble gets to the line more than anyone we can't afford him missing on the front ends at such a high rate.
At the same time and simply because of timing of this post, it does look like Gesell and Marble have put in some extra work at the line in practice. However, for the NW and OSU 1n1 opportunities they shot 1 for 4 with Gesell missing his only attempt and team only having 2 other attempts at 1n1 both makes by Olaseni and White.
To come back to the starting point. RDM has hit 70% on all other freethrow attempts that were not one and one situations. When that is on 101 overall attempts that means he's gone to the line on about 50 possessions and scored 70 points for about 1.4 ppp when Marble gets fouled. Still gotta like those numbers and while you hate the misses, it's that contribution that is also making these losses so close to begin with.
So, where did I go wrong because I feel like I'm overlooking something important when evaluating these numbers?