FanPost

Advanced football stats and how Iowa measures up

I pulled together some advanced college football rankings to see how Iowa stacks up against the teams it played, the other Big 10 teams and some potential bowl opponents.

There are a couple of different rankings I pulled. First is the F/+ rating used by Football Outsiders. It is a combination of two other ratings (the Fremeau Efficiency Index and the S&P+ ratings). Essentially these are looking at the succes rate per play as well as drive based efficiency. Again these are the rankings, you can go to Football Outsiders to see the raw ratings.

I've included the S&P+ ratings for passing and rushing offense and defense as well.

Team F/+ F/+ Offense F/+ Defense S&P+ S&P+ Offense S&P+ Pass Offense S&P+ Rush Offense S&P+ Defense S&P Pass Defense S&P Rush Defense
Ohio State 5 5 27 7 3 20 1 32 49 34
Wisconsin 9 23 8 4 18 33 6 5 15 9
Michigan State 12 55 2 12 75 89 82 3 3 1
Iowa 28 49 16 24 58 41 54 10 27 5
Michigan 35 36 32 41 41 19 65 48 51 29
Nebraska 44 60 41 58 45 65 14 70 53 90
Minnesota 47 74 40 71 74 63 71 52 35 73
Northern Illinois 53 44 66 66 32 30 20 97 107 99
Northwestern 56 67 43 54 52 35 37 50 71 51
Iowa State 83 84 81 89 89 78 61 81 37 105
Purdue 113 112 105 112 114 100 85 91 68 72
Western Michigan 117 118 93 117 120 115 118 108 88 116
Indiana 57 13 106 43 12 16 4 94 95 71
Penn State 61 72 33 51 84 67 94 23 43 6
Maryland 64 75 70 59 56 36 35 59 57 54
Illinois 70 39 96 69 32 30 22 102 103 81
Rutgers 94 96 95 95 95 85 101 87 99 18
Missouri 13 27 9 9 20 21 32 14 11 17
South Carolina 15 10 19 15 13 8 45 24 19 38
LSU 18 9 47 20 11 5 25 47 26 53
Texas A&M 23 3 86 17 4 6 5 67 50 75

Some of my observations:

  • Iowa had a tough Big Ten schedule (duh).
  • Iowa's passing offense was actually more efficient than the rushing offense.
  • The gap between Ohio State's rushing offense and the number 2 rushing offense (Oregon) is as big as the gap between number 2 and number 13 (ASU).
  • The loss to NIU sticks out here. Other then that game, Iowa beat all the teams rated lower than them and lost to higher rated teams.
  • Maryland and Rutgers may have some tough sledding ahead of them next year. Rutgers was right between Purdue and Illinois.
  • Iowa State is not the best 3 win team in the country. 3-8 Memphis ranks 69th in F/+ (although they have a game left against Connecticut so they could end up a 4 win team). Even 2-10 Virginia is ranked ahead of ISU at 75.

The potential bowl opponents look like a tough matchup.

  • Facing Texas A&Ms offense would be a huge test but their defense would be in the bottom half of the Big Ten and is similar to Nebraska's.
  • Missouri's offense is probably underrated here. They didn't have their top QB for several games this year although they still seemed to do ok.
  • The three of the four potential bowl opponents I've listed have more efficient pass offenses than rushing offenses.
  • LSU's passing offense is really good. Their defense is about on par with Michigan but its pass defense is better than its rushing defense.

Unless otherwise expressly indicated by BHGP editors, this FanPost is strictly the viewpoint of the author and is not endorsed by BHGP in any way.

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