(Updated SPAM Record as of 12-27-13: Winner: 9-5 O/U: 8-6 Spread: 7-7)
SPAM is participating in the BHGP pool! Since the games start tomorrow and my picks are locked in, below are SPAM's picks for spread, O/U, and winner, compared to Vegas. I made SPAM's confidence picks by assigning highest confidence to largest margin of victory, and so on.
I think we'll discover one of SPAM's major weaknesses here, which is that SPAM doesn't do well where teams lack common opponents, which is often the case with these bowl matchups.
SPAM has a number of upsets called, chief among them being:
Fresno St over USC (Vegas favors USC by 6) Boise State over Oregon State( Vegas has Oregon State a 3 point favorite)
- Georgia Tech (Vegas says Ole Miss by 5)
- Rice over Mississippi State (Vegas has Mississippi State winning by 7) Sparty over Stanford (Vegas favors the Cardinal by 4.5)
- Oklahoma State over Mizzou (it's basically a coin flip anyway)
strikethroughs are games where SPAM whiffed on picking the winner, the bold/underlines are where SPAM was correct.
|SPAM SAYS||VEGAS SAYS|
|12/21/2013||Buffalo v. San Diego St.||56||-1.0||San Diego St.||51.0|
|12/21/2013||Southern California v. Fresno St.||64||-6.0||Southern California||63.0|
|12/21/2013||Washington St. v. Colorado St.||-4||Colorado St.||-4.5||Washington St.||66.0|
|12/21/2013||Tulane v. La.-Lafayette||-1||La.-Lafayette||-1.5||Tulane||49.5|
|12/23/2013||east Carolina v. Ohio||east Carolina||61||-13.5||East Carolina||62.0|
|12/24/2013||Oregon St. v. Boise St.||-3.0||Oregon State||64.0|
|12/26/2013||Bowling Green v. Pittsburgh||51||-5.0||Bowling Green||50.0|
|12/26/2013||Northern Ill. v. Utah St.||-1||Utah St.||-1.5||Northern Ill.||58.0|
|12/27/2013||Marshall v. maryland||-11||Marshall||60||-2.5||Marshall||62.0|
|12/27/2013||Minnesota v. Syracuse||-4.0||Minnesota||47.5|
|12/27/2013||Washington v. BYU||-3||Washington||57||-3.0||washington||60.0|
|12/28/2013||Louisville v. Miami (FL)||-9||Louisville||53||-3.5||Louisville||56.5|
|12/28/2013||North Carolina v. Cincinnati||-3.0||North Carolina||56.5|
|12/28/2013||Notre Dame v. Rutgers||-4||Notre Dame||-15.5||Notre Dame||52.5|
|12/28/2013||Kansas St. v. Michigan||Kansas St.||-3.5||Kansas St.||55.5|
|12/30/2013||Oregon v. Texas||-12||Oregon||64||-13.5||Oregon||67.0|
|12/30/2013||Arizona St. v. Texas Tech||-6||Arizona St.||68||-14.0||Arizona State||71.0|
|12/30/2013||Ole Miss v. Georgia Tech||-5||Georgia Tech||57||-3.0||Ole Miss||56.5|
|12/30/2013||Navy v. Middle Tenn.||-2||Navy||59||-6.0||Navy||55.0|
|12/31/2013||Texas A&M v. Duke||-5||Texas A&M||67||-12.5||Texas A&M||74.5|
|12/31/2013||Arizona v. Boston College||-4||Arizona||57||-7.5||Arizona||57.0|
|12/31/2013||Mississippi St. v. Rice||-3||Rice||52||-7.0||Mississippi St.||50.5|
|12/31/2013||UCLA v. Virginia Tech||-2||UCLA||49||-7.0||UCLA||47.0|
|1/1/2014||Baylor v. UCF||-13||Baylor||66||-16.5||Baylor||68.5|
|1/1/2014||North Texas v. UNLV||-8||North Texas||55||-6.5||North Texas||54.5|
|1/1/2014||Wisconsin v. South Carolina||-4||Wisconsin||50||-1.0||Wisconsin||51.0|
|1/1/2014||LSU v. Iowa||-2||LSU||52||-7.5||LSU||49.0|
|1/1/2014||Stanford v. Michigan St.||-2||Michigan St.||44||-4.5||Stanford||43.0|
|1/1/2014||Georgia v. Nebraska||-1||Georgia||64||-9.0||Georgia||60.5|
|1/2/2014||Alabama v. Oklahoma||-11||Alabama||50||-15.5||Alabama||51.5|
|1/3/2014||Ohio St. v. Clemson||-4||Ohio St.||67||-2.5||Ohio St.||68.0|
|1/3/2014||Missouri v. Oklahoma St.||-3||Oklahoma St.||61||-1.0||Missouri||60.5|
|1/4/2014||Vanderbilt v. Houston||-6||Houston||54||-2.5||Vanderbilt||54.0|
|1/5/2014||Ball St. v. Arkansas St.||-7||Ball St.||62||-8.5||Ball St.||64.0|
|1/6/2014||Florida St. v. Auburn||-19||Florida St.||64||-8.5||Florida St.||67.0|
Based on this, you can calculate where SPAM says to take the over versus the under. I'll post that up later but mostly I wanted to get SPAM's picks down before the games start. Afterwards we'll see how much money you would have won or lost if you bet on SPAM. Which requires somebody to explain to me how to calculate the payouts because I have no idea, I don't bet on sports.
SPAM went 2-2 across the board on the first day of bowl play, correctly calling 2 winners, 2 spreads, and 2 O/Us. All four of today's games were among the 12 upsets SPAM predicted, including Washington State's remarkable meltdown in the second half.
- Buffalo v. San Diego St. -- SPAM was WRONG on winner, WRONG on spread, RIGHT on the over
- Fresno State v. USC - SPAM was WRONG on winner, WRONG on spread, RIGHT on the over.
- Washington St. v. Colorado St. - SPAM was RIGHT on the winner, RIGHT on the spread, WRONG on the under (note: I entered this pick incorrectly on the Yahoo Pick 'Em)
- Tulane v. LA-Lafayette - SPAM was RIGHT on the winner, RIGHT on the spread, WRONG on the under
- Ohio v. East Carolina -- SPAM was RIGHT on winner, WRONG on spread, RIGHT on the under
- Boise State v. Oregon State -- SPAM was WRONG across the board!
- Pitt v. Bowling Green - SPAM was WRONG on winner and spread, RIGHT on the over
- Utah State v. N Illinois - SPAM was RIGHT on the winner and spread, WRONG on the over
- Marshall v. Maryland -- By far SPAM's best performance, SPAM was RIGHT on the winner, RIGHT on the spread, and RIGHT on the under. Note that the Vegas line was about 1-2 on this game. SPAM said Marshall by 11, and the final score was 31-20 Marshall.