LET'S SEE HOW IOWA AND LSU COMPARE STATISTICALLY. Before we jump into all of this, please remember that LSU will be without their quarterback Zach Mettenberger for the game in Tampa. He had an outstanding senior season for LSU compiling 3,082 pass yards while completing 64.9% of his passes. He threw for 22 touchdowns on the season to only eight interceptions finishing with a quarterback rating of 171.4.
Mettenberger finished 2012 with a rating of 128.3 and had a 12 to 7 touchdown to interception ratio. This season was a big improvement that likely is the result of Les Miles hiring Cam Cameron as offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach in February. LSU will replace Mettenberger with Anthony Jennings. He's a freshman quarterback with only 10 pass attempts on the season.
THE STATS.
STAT | IOWA | RANK | LSU | RANK |
Passing offense | 200.4 ypg | 92 | 265.1 ypg | 33 |
Rushing offense | 186.6 ypg | 41 | 200.8 ypg | 35 |
1st downs O | 245 | 76 | 272 | 46 |
3rd down conversion O | 44.8% | 35 | 58.6% | 1 |
Sacks allowed | 12 | 11 | 21 | T45 |
Red Zone offense | 78% | 96 | 83.3% | 57 |
Scoring offense | 27.3 | 74 | 37 ppg | 21 |
Passing efficiency | 126.21 | 75 | 171.6 | 3 |
Interceptions thrown | 13 | T74 | 8 | T25 |
Total offense | 389.0 ypg | 79 | 465.9 ypg | 26 |
Fewest penalty yds per game | 34.58 | 14 | 56.58 | 97 |
1st downs D | 192 | 6 | 235 | T37 |
Passes intercepted | 12 | T59 | 9 | T89 |
Pass yds allowed | 182.4 | 11 | 200.8 | 17 |
Red Zone defense | 84.6% | T78 | 84.6% | T78 |
Rushing defense | 120.8 | 17 | 148.8 | 43 |
Scoring defense | 18.8 | 11 | 22.7 | T30 |
Sacks | 20 | T85 | 24 | T61 |
Pass efficiency defense | 116.23 | 25 | 119.74 | 37 |
Tackles for a loss | 73 | T54 | 60 | 104 |
Turnover margin | +1 | T54 | -2 | T72 |
3rd down defense | 34.3% | 24 | 39.1% | 59 |
Total defense | 303.2 | 7 | 349.7 | 20 |
Net punting | 37.79 | 38 | 37.76 | 43 |
Punt returns | 15 ypr | 5 | 8.05 ypr | 62 |
Kickoff returns | 20.25 ypr | 85 | 25.82 ypr | 4 |
NOW, LET'S LOOK AT STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE. Using the Sagarin rankings, LSU's SOS ranks 27th and Iowa's 41st. LSU was (1-1) versus the Sagarin Top 10 with a win over Auburn and loss against Alabama. Iowa is (0-2) against the Sagarin Top 10 with losses to Michigan State and Ohio State. LSU is (2-2) against the Sagarin Top 30 and Iowa (0-3).
Using Football Outsiders F/+ combined ratings, LSU played the #47, #115, #102, #4, #20, #43, #46, #35, FCS, #2, #22 and #87 teams in their rankings. Iowa played #61, FCS, #81, #117, #48, #9, #5, #57, #10, #114, #32 and #45 ranked teams. Looking at the S&P+ defensive rankings, LSU played the #12, #123, #97, #32, #46, #17, #13, #20, FCS, #4, #67 and #81 ranked teams. Iowa played the #99, FCS, #83, #108, #54, #2, #40, #52, #5, #93, #47 and #70 ranked defenses. Finally, using the S&P+ for offensive rankings, LSU played the #94, #85, #99, #8, #7, #62, #100, #49, FCS, #10, #5 and #68 rated offenses. Iowa played the #32, FCS, #90, #121, #75, #66, #3, #51 #22, #115, #40 and #46 rated offenses. That's a lot of numbers, I know, but remember the last three or four in each category. We'll get to that a little later.
STICKING WITH FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS. Let's see how each team compares in some advanced stats (visit Football Ousiders for a full explanation of statistics):
STAT | IOWA | RANK | LSU | RANK |
Overall F/+ | 15.9% | 28 | 23.9% | 18 |
Offensive F/+ | 2.7% | 52 | 18.3% | 9 |
Defensive F/+ | 11.5% | 17 | 3.3% | 45 |
Special Teams F/+ | 1.7% | 38 | 2.4% | 25 |
Overall S&P+ | 232.9 | 23 | 237.7 | 20 |
Offensive S&P+ | 100.1 | 60 | 127.5 | 11 |
O Play efficiency | 103 | 58 | 125.6 | 8 |
O Drive efficiency | 97.1 | 62 | 129.4 | 10 |
Defensive S&P+ | 132.8 | 10 | 110.2 | 48 |
D Play efficiency | 122 | 11 | 109.2 | 33 |
D Drive efficiency | 143.7 | 10 | 111.1 | 56 |
D Standard down S&P+ | 124.8 | 8 | 108.6 | 39 |
D Pass down S&P+ | 119 | 24 | 117.7 | 26 |
D Rush down S&P+ | 135.9 | 6 | 105.8 | 52 |
O Standard down S&P+ | 103.5 | 57 | 117.9 | 19 |
O Rush S&P+ | 103.8 | 58 | 115.3 | 24 |
O Pass down S&P+ | 105.2 | 53 | 152.3 | 3 |
O Pass S&P+ | 108.4 | 43 | 141.6 | 5 |
Starting field position | 68 | 23 | 68.9 | 42 |
Opponent starting FP | 70.5 | 59 | 72.2 | 24 |
Short field drives | .177 | 6 | .109 | 68 |
Opponent short field drives | .099 | 47 | .106 | 56 |
Long field drives | .202 | 47 | .200 | 45 |
Opponent long field drives | .221 | 51 | .221 | 52 |
To state the obvious, this game will be Iowa's defense versus LSU's offense. Zach Mettenberger will be a huge loss to LSU as their passing game is one of the best in the country. Let's continue.
FURTHER FUN WITH NUMBERS. We can get more stats! Stats!!! We'll forget home and away splits because this is a neutral field. We'll forget national rankings for stats too and just see how each team compares to the other.
STAT | IOWA | LSU |
Rushing offense in wins | 401-1797-4.48-16Td | 370-2176-5.88-29Td |
Rushing offense in loses | 118-465-3.94-1Td | 102-234-2.29-5Td |
Rushing offense in conference | 301-1286-4.27-9Td | 317-1422-4.49-22Td |
Rushing offense in non-con | 218-976-4.48-8Td | 155-988-6.37-12Td |
Rush offense vs ranked | 118-465-3.94-1Td | 166-672-4.05-9Td |
Rush offense vs unranked | 401-2797-4.48-16Td | 306-1738-5.69-25Td |
Rush offense vs winning FBS | 251-1034-4.12-6Td | 201-786-3.91-11Td |
Rush offense vs losing FBS | 211-930-4.41-7Td | 235-1292-5.50-19Td |
Rush offense Sept | 263-1222-4.65-9Td | 199-961-4.83-14Td |
Rush offense Oct | 84-289-3.44-1Td | 149-844-5.66-14Td |
Rush offense Nov | 172-751-4.37-7Td | 124-605-4.88-6Td |
Pass offense in wins | 118/188-62.8%-1484-12Td-6Int | 140/213-65.7%-2294-18Td 5Int |
Pass offense in loses | 82/157-52.2%-921-6Td-7Int | 58/93-62.4%-887-5Td-3Int |
Pass offense in conference | 135/239-56.5%-1608-13Td-10Int | 135/210-64.3%-2033-11Td-6Int |
Pass offense in non-con | 65/106-61.3%-797-5Td-3Int | 63/96-65.6%-1148-12Td-2Int |
Pass offense vs ranked | 82/157-52.2%-921-6Td-7Int | 64/102-62.7%-1035-7Td-1Int |
Pass offense vs unranked | 118/188-62.8%-1484-12Td-6Int | 134/204-65.7%-2146-16Td-7Int |
Pass offense vs winning FBS | 125/229-54.6%-1504-11Td-11Int | 83/135-61.5%-1309-8Td-4Int |
Pass offense vs losing FBS | 56/88-63.6%-708-7Td-1Int | 98/145-67.6%-1532-12Td-2Int |
Pass offense in Sept | 80/131-61.1%-1015-6Td-4Int | 83/129-64.3%-1409-13Td-1Int |
Pass offense in Oct | 64/107-59.8%-655-6Td-4Int | 70/105-66.7%-1106-6Td-6Int |
Pass offense in Nov | 56/107-52.3%-735-6Td-5Int | 45/72-62.5%-666-4Td-1Int |
Rush defense in wins | 240-660-2.75-1Td | 316-1221-3.86-9Td |
Rush defense in loses | 175-789-4.51-4Td | 121-565-4.67-5Td |
Rush defense vs conf | 306-1083-3.54-5Td | 301-1362-4.52-10Td |
Rush defense vs non-con | 109-366-3.36-0Td | 136-424-3.12-4Td |
Rush defense vs ranked | 175-789-4.51-4Td | 148-677-4.57-Td |
Rush defense vs unranked | 240-660-2.75-1Td | 289-1109-3.84-8Td |
Rush D vs FBS winning | 268-968-3.61-5Td | 191-853-4.47-8Td |
Rush D vs FBS losing | 124-411-3.31-0Td | 211-841-3.99-6Td |
Rush defense Sept | 136-396-2.91-0Td | 189-741-3.92-8Td |
Rush defense Oct | 140-633-4.52-2Td | 154-595-3.86-3Td |
Rush defense Nov | 139-420-3.02-3Td | 94-450-4.79-3Td |
Pass defense in wins | 127/244-52%-1271-11Td-10Int | 145/273-53.1%-1584-6Td-8Int |
Pass defense in loss | 83/131-63.4%-918-9Td-2Int | 65/95-68.4%-826-8Td-1Int |
Pass defense vs conf | 133/227-58.6%-1392-13Td-6Int | 149/257-58%-1833-13Td7Int |
Pass defense vs non-con | 77-148-52%-797-7Td-6Int | 61/111-55%-577-1Td-2Int |
Pass D vs ranked | 83-131-63.4%-918-9Td-2Int | 67/128-52.3%-925-8Td5Int |
Pass D vs unranked | 127/244-52%-1271-11Td-10Int | 143/240-59.6%-1485-6Td-4Int |
Pass D vs FBS winning | 127/220-57.7%-1350-13Td-6Int | 98/169-58%-1274-9Td-5Int |
Pass D vs FBS losing | 69/125-55.2%-712-6Td-5Int | 95/170-55.9%-1030-5Td3Int |
Pass D Sept | 89/172-51.7%-932-8Td-8Int | 81/149-54.4-993-5Td4Int |
Pass D Oct | 58/85-68.2%-603-5Td-1Int | 80/129-62%-836-3Td2Int |
Pass D Nov | 63/118-53.4%-654-7Td-3Int | 49/90-54.4%-581-6Td3Int |
3rd Down O in wins | 59/119 49.58% | 60/102 58.82% |
3rd Down O in losses | 23/63 36.51% | 22/38 57.89% |
3rd Down O vs FBS win | 41/107 38.32% | 38/68 55.88% |
3rd Down O vs FBS lose | 34/61 55.74% | 39/65 60% |
3rd Down O Sept | 42/80 52.5% | 36/61 59.02% |
3rd Down O Oct | 18/42 42.86% | 21/38 55.26% |
3rd Down O Nov | 22/60 36.67% | 25/41 60.98% |
1st Downs Rush | 123 | 112 |
1st Downs Pass | 107 | 141 |
1st Down Penalty | 15 | 19 |
Red Zone conversions | 39/50-78%-26Td-13Fg | 45/54-83.3%-35Td-10Fg |
TFL in wins | 55-156yds 6.88 TFL/g | 48-226yds 5.33 TFL/g |
TFL in losses | 18-44yds 4.5 TFL/g | 12-38yds 4 TFL/g |
TFL Sept | 22-64yds 4.4 TFL/g | 21-91yds 4.2 TFL/g |
TFL Oct | 18-40yds 6 TFL/g | 28-120yds 7.0 TFL/g |
TFL Nov | 33-96yds 8.25 TFL/g | 11-53 3.67 TFL/g |
Scoring offense in wins | 31.8 | 40.2 |
Scoring offense in loss | 18.5 | 27.3 |
Scoring offense vs conf | 23.4 | 32.3 |
Scoring offense vs non-con | 35.3 | 46.5 |
Scoring o vs FBS winners | 22.7 | 30.2 |
Scoring o vs FBS losers | 35.3 | 40.8 |
Scoring offense Sept | 32.8 | 42.8 |
Scoring offense Oct | 18.3 | 37 |
Scoring offense Nov | 27.3 | 27.3 |
Scoring defense in wins | 13.4 | 18.1 |
Scoring defense in loss | 29.5 | 36.3 |
Scoring defense vs conf | 19.6 | 24.9 |
Scoring defense vs non-con | 17.0 | 18.3 |
Scoring d vs FBS win rec | 23.3 | 28.0 |
Scoring d vs FBS Losers | 12.0 | 19.3 |
Scoring defense Sept | 15.0 | 24.4 |
Scoring defense Oct | 23.3 | 18.8 |
Scoring defense Nov | 20.0 | 25.0 |
3rd Down D in W | 34/110 30.91% | 46/130 35.38% |
3rd Down D in L | 27/68 39.71% | 20/39 51.28% |
3rd Down D vs FBS winners | 38/109 34.86% | 31/70 44.29% |
3rd Down D vs FBS Losers | 22/59 37.29% | 31/83 37.35% |
3rd Down D Sept | 18/71 25.35% | 26/71 36.62% |
3rd Down D Oct | 24/47 51.06% | 25/62 40.32% |
3rd Down D Nov | 19/60 31.67% | 15/36 41.67% |
PLAYER STATS. Let's look at both team's leaders on the season (source):
Rushing leaders -
Iowa (click to enlarge)
LSU (click to enlarge)
Receiving leaders -
Iowa (click to enlarge)
LSU (click to enlarge)
Passing leaders -
Iowa (click to enlarge)
LSU (click to enlarge)
The thing that jumps out looking at player stats is the distribution. Mark Weisman and Jeremy Hill is each team's horse. Their carries on the season almost double the next back. Weisman's heavy workload in the early season contribute to his 17.33 carries per game, almost 1.5 more than Hill. We'll look closer at the real picture when we view the November splits.
There's two clear-cut receiving options for LSU as Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham Jr. each have over 50 receptions on the season. They both eclipsed 1,000 yards and combined hauled in 18 touchdown receptions. Iowa's C.J. Fiedorowicz has the third most receptions of Iowa pass catchers. LSU's tight end Dillion Gordon has 12 receptions but for only 88 yards.
LET'S LOOK FURTHER INTO SPLITS. Now that we've looked at the stats for the whole season, let's take a closer look at the last month to get a better idea of what these teams truly are heading into the bowl game. Iowa played Wisconsin, Purdue, Michigan and Nebraska. LSU had two bye weeks following a game with FCS Furman sandwiched around Alabama. They finished with Texas A&M and Arkansas. Note the stat rankings for the opponents above.
Because teams evolve or injuries happen during the course of a season, it's best to look at the most recent games for a better idea of that team's identity. Each team played their toughest opponent of this period at the beginning of these stats (Iowa vs Wisconsin November 2nd and LSU vs. Alabama November 9th).
Passing offense -
Iowa (click to enlarge)
LSU (click to enlarge)
Rushing offense -
Iowa (click to enlarge)
LSU (click to enlarge)
Passing defense -
Iowa (click to enlarge)
LSU (click to enlarge)
Rushing defense -
Iowa (click to enlarge)
LSU (click to enlarge)
LET'S GO FURTHER AND EXAMINE SOME PLAYER SPLITS FOR THIS SAME TIME FRAME.
Iowa - Mark Weisman -rushing
Iowa - Jordan Canzeri -rushing
Iowa - Jake Rudock - passing
Iowa - Kevonte Martin-Manley - receiving
Iowa - C.J. Fiedorowicz - receiving
Iowa - Tevaun Smith - receiving
LSU - Jeremy Hill - rushing
LSU - Terrence Magee - rushing
LSU - Jarvis Landry - receiving
LSU - Odell Beckham Jr. - receiving
LSU - Anthony Jennings - passing
WHAT CAN WE DRAW FROM THIS? Iowa's Mark Weisman suffered an injury mid-season and after the second bye week emerged again healthy at the end of the year. Weisman had only 18 carries for 45 yards in games against Purdue and Wisconsin. Against Michigan and Nebraska he had 41 carries for 160 yards and three touchdowns. That equates to almost 20% of his season carries and 17% of his season's yards in those last two games.
With Weisman's injury Jordan Canzeri emerged. In the second half against Wisconsin he rushed five times for 58 yards. In the last four games of the year he had 63 carries for 332 yards and one touchdown. That's 74% of his season yard total.
Still, Iowa's rushing game struggled compared to the season average. Iowa rushed for over 200 yards as a team in the first five games of the season. Against Purdue the Hawks had a season high 318 but 110, 168 and 155 against Wisconsin, Michigan and Nebraska.
Iowa's rush offense averaged less than four yards per carry three of the last four games but Jake Rudock improved. He missed the end of three games due to injury or blowout but still had a yards per pass attempt of over eight in the last three games. He also had six touchdowns to three interceptions (all versus Michigan) and had QB ratings of 173.22, 132.25 and 174.56.
Rudock's improvement was due in part to the emergence of Tevaun Smith in the Iowa passing game. Smith ended the season with 24 receptions and nine came in three of the final four games. Kevonte Martin-Manely got off to a hot start in 2013 but disappeared in the middle of the schedule. He, along with C.J. Fiedorowicz, collected 16 passes and four of Rudock's six touchdown passes over the last four games.
LSU's running backs got the best of both worlds. Against Alabama, Hill and Magee were held to 73 yards on 22 carries. Against Texas A&M, they combined for 27 carries for 225 yards. Hill carried the ball 20 times against Arkansas, only the third time he'd eclipsed the 20 carry mark all season. MaGee added two touchdowns against the Razorbacks on seven carries.
Terrence Magee's season looks similar to Canzeri. He finished the season with 614 yards and 346 of those came in the season's last four games. Magee has found the endzone scoring five times in that four game span.
Odell Beckham Jr. finished with 1,117 yards but most of those came before November. In the season's final three games, Beckham had nine receptions for 108 yards and zero touchdowns. In those same three games, Jarvis Landry collected 17 passes for 290 yards and two touchdowns. Landry has been consistent all season never ending a game without at least four receptions.
Anthony Jennings is the wild card. We got a small glimpse of his ability when he replaced Mettenberger for the games final minutes against Arkansas. With 3:04 to go in the game, Jennings took over quarterback and had 99 yards to get LSU the win. His first play was a rush for two yards giving the offense some breathing room. He drove the team to midfield completing 3/5 passes and added a 21 yard rush. Mettenberger is credited with 34 carries on the season for negative 133 yards. He didn't run the ball, Jennings can. That brings a new dimension for which Iowa has to prepare for. Jennings eventually found Travin Dural for a 49-yard touchdown pass. Here's the highlights of LSU's comeback win over Arkansas.
11/29/2013 Arkansas vs LSU Football Highlights (via SECDigitalNetwork)
DO WE LEARN ANYTHING HERE? I did my best to not cherry pick stats to support an argument. The purpose here is to display the comparison of each team and allow you to form your own opinions.
That being said, I have an opinion of my own. If anything is clear it is that this game is about Iowa's strength (defense) against LSU's strength (offense). That stat that jumps out the most is LSU's third down conversion offense. It tells me the Hawkeyes will have to be stout on first and second down forcing LSU and their new quarterback into third and long situations. Zach Mettenberger had a fantastic season and it's fair to assume that LSU will suffer a statistical drop-off offensively without him. Iowa can't allow Jeremy Hill big gains and Anthony Jennings the chance to get comfortable in the pocket.
I think the loss at QB makes LSU one dimensional. Their defense doesn't scare anyone and their performance against teams with a winning record is reason enough to believe Iowa can win this game.
Still, Iowa has lost to each Top 25 team they'be played this season. The worst being dominated by Wisconsin. This game could easily look a lot like that Wisconsin game in Iowa City. LSU just needs to pound the ball with their running game and ask Jennings to be a game manager and pass when the time is right for play action.
But, LSU's defense is not Wisconsin's defense and Iowa should put up 24+ points in this game. Iowa's defense has a knack for timely turnovers giving their own offense a short field. Iowa has to win the turnover battle and capitalize when LSU makes mistakes because Jennings will make one or two.