FanPost

TeamRankings.com: 12% chance to win division, 60% (!) chance of beating N Illinois

After a couple years of cranking odds of Iowa being undefeated overall, Iowa being undefeated in conference play, Iowa finishing 6-2, etc I am pleased to see someone else is doing a hell of a better job at it than I ever did. I recommend you take a looksy at the Iowa projections page at TeamRankings.com. I don't know their methodology but it just feels right. Nothing looks wrong. No alarms and no surprises.

Chances of going undefeated: 1.8%

Chances of winning the division: 11.9%

Chances of winning the Big Ten Championship: 5.9%

And the range of "good luck", "bad luck", "miracle", "meltdown" and "most likely" are helpful in setting expectations going into the season. 7-5 is the most likely, 10-2 is the 90th percentile "miracle", 4-8 is the 10th percentile "meltdown".

Northern Illinois is projected to have a 5% chance of going undefeated. If they beat us (40% chance of doing so), that jumps up to, eh, let's say 8% chance. Looking at their "overall" page they are projected to basically have the same quality of team that we have. This is a pretty tough game for us - not one of the hardest games on the schedule, but not one of the easiest games either. Out of our twelve games this would be our sixth-toughest to win. But this IS the toughest game on THEIR schedule - and they know if they win they have a special season in front of them. Watch out.

Who wins the Legends Division?

Michigan 38%
Nebraska 23%
Michigan State 21%
Iowa 12%
Northwestern 5%
Minnesota 2

    And Iowa's schedule:

    week team odds of winning
    1 N Illinois 60.0%
    2 Iowa State 73.0%
    3 N Iowa 99.5%
    4 Central Mich 84.6%
    5 Minnesota 83.8%
    6 --BYE--
    7 @ Michigan St 27.4%
    8 Penn State 51.2%
    9 @ Northwestrn 56.2%
    10 @ Indiana 74.0%
    11 Purdue 70.7%
    12 @ Michigan 18.4%
    13 Nebraska 40.6%

    Unless otherwise expressly indicated by BHGP editors, this FanPost is strictly the viewpoint of the author and is not endorsed by BHGP in any way.

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