After a couple years of cranking odds of Iowa being undefeated overall, Iowa being undefeated in conference play, Iowa finishing 6-2, etc I am pleased to see someone else is doing a hell of a better job at it than I ever did. I recommend you take a looksy at the Iowa projections page at TeamRankings.com. I don't know their methodology but it just feels right. Nothing looks wrong. No alarms and no surprises.
Chances of going undefeated: 1.8%
Chances of winning the division: 11.9%
Chances of winning the Big Ten Championship: 5.9%
And the range of "good luck", "bad luck", "miracle", "meltdown" and "most likely" are helpful in setting expectations going into the season. 7-5 is the most likely, 10-2 is the 90th percentile "miracle", 4-8 is the 10th percentile "meltdown".
Northern Illinois is projected to have a 5% chance of going undefeated. If they beat us (40% chance of doing so), that jumps up to, eh, let's say 8% chance. Looking at their "overall" page they are projected to basically have the same quality of team that we have. This is a pretty tough game for us - not one of the hardest games on the schedule, but not one of the easiest games either. Out of our twelve games this would be our sixth-toughest to win. But this IS the toughest game on THEIR schedule - and they know if they win they have a special season in front of them. Watch out.
Who wins the Legends Division?
| Michigan | 38% |
| Nebraska | 23% |
| Michigan State | 21% |
| Iowa | 12% |
| Northwestern | 5% |
| Minnesota | 2 |
And Iowa's schedule:
| week | team | odds of winning |
| 1 | N Illinois | 60.0% |
| 2 | Iowa State | 73.0% |
| 3 | N Iowa | 99.5% |
| 4 | Central Mich | 84.6% |
| 5 | Minnesota | 83.8% |
| 6 | --BYE-- | |
| 7 | @ Michigan St | 27.4% |
| 8 | Penn State | 51.2% |
| 9 | @ Northwestrn | 56.2% |
| 10 | @ Indiana | 74.0% |
| 11 | Purdue | 70.7% |
| 12 | @ Michigan | 18.4% |
| 13 | Nebraska | 40.6% |
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