After a couple years of cranking odds of Iowa being undefeated overall, Iowa being undefeated in conference play, Iowa finishing 6-2, etc I am pleased to see someone else is doing a hell of a better job at it than I ever did. I recommend you take a looksy at the Iowa projections page at TeamRankings.com. I don't know their methodology but it just feels right. Nothing looks wrong. No alarms and no surprises.
Chances of going undefeated: 1.8%
Chances of winning the division: 11.9%
Chances of winning the Big Ten Championship: 5.9%
And the range of "good luck", "bad luck", "miracle", "meltdown" and "most likely" are helpful in setting expectations going into the season. 7-5 is the most likely, 10-2 is the 90th percentile "miracle", 4-8 is the 10th percentile "meltdown".
Northern Illinois is projected to have a 5% chance of going undefeated. If they beat us (40% chance of doing so), that jumps up to, eh, let's say 8% chance. Looking at their "overall" page they are projected to basically have the same quality of team that we have. This is a pretty tough game for us - not one of the hardest games on the schedule, but not one of the easiest games either. Out of our twelve games this would be our sixth-toughest to win. But this IS the toughest game on THEIR schedule - and they know if they win they have a special season in front of them. Watch out.
Who wins the Legends Division?
And Iowa's schedule:
|week||team||odds of winning|
|7||@ Michigan St||27.4%|