Greetings Goldpantsia, long time no see. My life is a little busier than it was a year ago, but time permitting I'm hoping to post an update of the player development story I wrote last year, with another year's recruiting and draft classes added into the mix. Maybe this weekend.
But there's one little piece of Iowa-specific information that I don't think should wait. If you can recall what I was doing last year, I basically was just comparing the Rivals rankings of recruits at various programs to the fraction of those recruits that were eventually drafted into the NFL. There were some stories involved, for instance Iowa under Ferentz has excelled at developing its incoming talent into NFL ready players. And a lot of interesting discussion was sparked about just what it all meant. This year I am hoping to go into a bit more geographic detail with the updated analysis. For example, let's say you are a D1 recruit from - I don't know - Iowa. Where should you attend school if you want to maximize your chances of playing at the next level?
I think there are very few questions that shouldn't be answered in the form of a table, and this one is no exception. Let's use the same methods as last year, but with one more year of data (recruiting classes 2002-2009 matched to NFL drafts 2004-2012), and answer that question. Let's give our state of Iowa recruit a concrete answer to which school gives him the best chance at getting to the next level:
|Fraction of recruits from Iowa drafted (by college and stars)|
|Stars||Iowa||Iowa State||Non-Iowa BCS|
|★★||21.4% (3/14)||0.0% (0/29)||0.0% (0/8)|
|★★★||17.4% (4/23)||0.0% (0/20)||0.0% (0/5)|
|★★★★||20.0% (1/5)||0.0% (0/1)||20.0% (1/5)|
|All||19.0% (8/42)||0.0% (0/50)||5.6% (1/18)|
The numbers don't lie, and these numbers are not whispering. If you are a recruit from Iowa that cares about having a shot at the NFL, then when Iowa offers - you should say yes.
Paging Jake Campos. You have been blessed with the greatest developer of talent in college football right in your backyard (spoiler alert!). Consider taking advantage.