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Fran-Graphs, Penn State


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[Photo credit: Jeff Becker]


Saturday was a feel-good game at Carver: the 1986-87 team was there and received a very warm welcome from the fans, the current Hawks came out in the sharp-looking throwback unis, and the first half went about as well as any the team has had all year. Aaron White was the star on offense and defense, nailing two threes, sprinting behind the defense to catch and convert long alley-oop pass from Bryce Cartwright, and blocking two shots. And the team's defense as a whole was very good. Many times it looked as though Penn State had the ball in position on the block for a layup, only to have a Hawkeye player step in for a charge, or a strip, or a block. That harassment in the post, combined with some terrifically bad shooting by Penn State, made it feel like the Nittany Lions wouldn't crack 20 all game. The score was 29-10 with five minutes left in the half, and the game felt effectively over.

But just to throw a little cold water on the proceedings, note two things:

  1. Penn State is a truly terrible shooting team: 320th in the country (out of 345) in effective field goal percentage at 44% and 293rd in three-point percentage at 30.8%. They are also a bad team offensively in general, ranking 258th in offensive efficiency at .938 points/possession;
  2. That same Penn State put up 45 points on an eFG% of 65% in the second half, making 8/16 threes; that was good for a second-half offensive efficiency of 1.36 points/possession.

To say Iowa let up would be an understatement. They seemed to take the foot off the gas as soon as the second half started, using up almost the entire shot clock on every possession on offense and allowing Penn State open look after open look on defense. Iowa got to the line 23 times in the second half and that was enough to stave off a Penn State comeback, but just be aware of that context when you think about whether Iowa's defense has turned the corner. You have to grade teams on a curve when it comes to defensive performance, and Penn State represented a very easy defensive test. Iowa aced the first 20 minutes, then just filled in "C" for every question on the last 20.

Star-divide

But one good half of defense is better than none, and Iowa played very well over the first 20 minutes. It's worrying that the discrepancy between Iowa's defense when they are focused and when they aren't is so stark, though.

The most encouraging thing about the game was the further development of the starting offensive unit. It's clear now that this unit works much better, offensively at least, when White and Cartwright are in instead of Melsahn Basabe and Eric May. It works because every single member of the unit can, potentially, score from a variety of positions. Double Gatens on the pick and roll? White or McCabe probably set the pick and are going to be open for a three. Man the team up? Cartwright, Gatens, Marble, and McCabe are all very comfortable taking the ball off the dribble, and only White is still a little awkward in that phase of the game. All five players pass well and cut well, something the team exploited a few times in the first half when Cartwright or Marble would back-cut to the rim for a layup. It's a very odd, non-positional sort of offense, sort of like the Dallas Mavericks of last year when they went small (but without the three-point shooting), and it seems to work pretty well.

Of course, defense is the area where this unit is a little lacking. For a while at least, though, they gave a template in this game of how this undersized unit might succeed on defense: taking charges, swiping at the ball when it gets in the post, and relying on the surprisingly good shot-blocking skills of White. It's doubtful that this unit will ever be dominant on defense, but when everyone is focused, they at least can scramble and make things difficult for the offense.

Player of the game should probably go to White, who finished with the well-rounded line of 17 points (on just nine field goal attempts), 9 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 steal and 3 blocks. He really is a fun player to watch, and is proving impressively versatile. He seems to be equally comfortable defending the post, shooting on the perimeter, rolling to the basket on a pick and roll, or getting out on the break. He also displayed some nice passing, dropping it off to Gatens and Cartwright for layups.

Cartwright also had a very solid game, going for 17 points, 7 rebounds and 5 assists. The best number he put up, though, was his one turnover. He's had several games that were otherwise good marred by inexplicable turnovers, usually low-probability bounce passes to a player who wasn't expecting it. On Saturday, there were none of those passes, and he ran the break well and under control. He also seemed to work more off the ball, which helped, I think. He's a very quick player, and has the capacity to get open in the style of a shooting guard off of screens, rather than just penetrating one-on-one.

Stray observations:

  • It was really heart-warming to see all the old players and coaches back, especially Tom Davis. The crowd totally drowned out his introduction, then kept on cheering after he had been announced. It was almost as if the whole crowd wanted to say "sorry" for the way things went down when Dr. Tom was let go.
  • Melsahn Basabe was wearing an extra-large white headband (perhaps in the spirit of the throwback uniforms?) that made him look like he was recovering from a massive brain injury. He took it off about half-way through the game.
  • Fans were supposedly instructed to dress up in '80s garb to continue the throwback theme, but only a few did (although one student did have an absolutely amazing black-and-gold Cosby sweater). Unless you count all the female students who wore moon boots, in which case participation was near total.
  • No home games until February 19th, when Indiana comes to town. Next on the schedule is Northwestern, whose constant movement and excellent three-point shooting shouldn't cause Iowa's shaky defense any trouble. Oh, wait. It will cause them massive trouble.

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Comments

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I love the way McCabe is playing. Gritty, nasty basketball.

And I can’t wait to see the new big man next year. He should make everyone better. Basabe is not a natural 5. As a power forward he can collect the junk points and wreak havoc in D. I see at least 20 wins next year if the recruits are all they are hyped to be.

It's so sad how a family can be torn apart by something as simple as a pack of wild dogs.

by FiveSecondRuleChef on Feb 6, 2012 10:12 AM CST reply actions  

Basabe's headband

I was pretty sure that his headband was a women’s fashion headband (think Mary from Dumb and Dumber), not a sweatband. I also think “Basabe’s headband” would be a good handle for a new poster.

by Angle's Dangle on Feb 6, 2012 10:19 AM CST reply actions  

Fran was honoring the 86-87 team

By taking his foot off the gas after building a huge lead by running and taking shots early in the clock.

/Too Soon!

by PackerHawk on Feb 6, 2012 10:27 AM CST reply actions  

25 years is too soon?

I spent half my life's earnings on wine, women & song. The other half I wasted.

by therealCatnuts on Feb 6, 2012 11:42 AM CST up reply actions  

My sarcasm detector clearly needs servicing.

I spent half my life's earnings on wine, women & song. The other half I wasted.

by therealCatnuts on Feb 6, 2012 2:40 PM CST up reply actions  

It's like Ronnie Harmon

Until we go to a Final Four or win a Rose Bowl there will always be a bit of a Too Soon! element to it.

by PackerHawk on Feb 6, 2012 3:04 PM CST up reply actions  

In Regards to the 80's clothing theme

There was a kid in a glorious Rams Eric Dickerson jersey in the student section.

I can feel it....this is the week O'Keefe is gonna open up the playbook.

by MoMoney MoBrown on Feb 6, 2012 10:46 AM CST reply actions  

I really feel like

were going to need an off-shooting night from NW to beat them at their place this week, similar to the way we won at Wisconsin and Minnesota.

They say you're a pitcher, you're sure not much of a dresser. We wear caps and sleeves on this level, son.

by isHawkeye on Feb 6, 2012 11:33 AM CST reply actions  

Northwestern is going to beat us when Shurna hits like 12 chest pass threes and I am already mad

The second half of the Penn State game was infuriating, even though we still won big. We just completely fell asleep on the defensive end and almost let them back in it. Considering our start to both halves, that seemed like a game we easily could have won by like thirty (and thus a game where I could have gotten some sweet B-Stubbs action). How Timmy Frazier, who is literally Penn State’s only offensive weapon, is every left alone is beyond me.

by NorseHawk on Feb 6, 2012 11:41 AM CST reply actions  

I think it's much harder to keep the foot on the gas than people think

Especially when you don’t have great offensive players that can just pour it in with ease. So I’m not too worried that the second half looked sloppy.

I spent half my life's earnings on wine, women & song. The other half I wasted.

by therealCatnuts on Feb 6, 2012 11:44 AM CST up reply actions  

I'm less worried about the lack of great offensive players than I am the lack of defensive effort in the second half.

It’s one thing to do that against a team as awful offensively as Penn State when you’re at home and with a 15-20 point lead already in your back pocket; the odds of it coming back to bite you are pretty slim. Against other teams in other situations, though? Absolutely could/should be a problem. I wish we could develop the habit of playing hard defense for longer stretches of time.

This should have been a game where we were able to clear out the bench in the final 3-4 minutes

"I want to be a cowboy. I don't want to be a panda. Pandas are boring, stupid and boring. Bad panda!"

by RossWB on Feb 6, 2012 12:10 PM CST up reply actions  

When the guy you're guarding stinks, it can be hard to keep up the defensive effort

That’s why I guess I understand the slacking. It was pretty clear PSU had no chance of coming back. I think in a different situation they’d play it differently.

My comment on offensive prowess is saying why I think we didn’t blow them out. When teams like UNC get up 15-20 they start getting easier baskets on offense when the other team starts gambling defensively and UNC’s pure scorers can just have fun with it. I don’t think we have those guys, the only one may be Cartwright. I think defense has a much lesser role than offense in turning a comfortable lead into a blowout.

I spent half my life's earnings on wine, women & song. The other half I wasted.

by therealCatnuts on Feb 6, 2012 12:50 PM CST up reply actions  

That’s why I guess I understand the slacking. It was pretty clear PSU had no chance of coming back. I think in a different situation they’d play it differently.

Except lax defensive effort has been the norm more often than not this year. That’s a habit they need to break; PSU would have been a good opportunity to do so.

"I want to be a cowboy. I don't want to be a panda. Pandas are boring, stupid and boring. Bad panda!"

by RossWB on Feb 6, 2012 12:52 PM CST up reply actions  

I just don't see it happening, I guess maybe I've made peace with our bad defense

They’ve had plenty of other reasons to turn it on late, and it’s just never happened. Could have saved face against Indiana, could have won at Purdue, could have easily beaten a bad Nebraska team, etcetera.

I spent half my life's earnings on wine, women & song. The other half I wasted.

by therealCatnuts on Feb 6, 2012 1:04 PM CST up reply actions  

Gut feeling

Iowa dominates

I for one still remember Wisconsin. if we can beat them, we can beat Northwestern.

"Your spelling and grammar errors belie a seriously skilled thought process"- therealCatnuts

by justsomehawkeyefan on Feb 6, 2012 11:52 AM CST reply actions  

Hopefully jNW decides to miss a bunch of wide open 3s and shoot about 10% from distance, too.

"I want to be a cowboy. I don't want to be a panda. Pandas are boring, stupid and boring. Bad panda!"

by RossWB on Feb 6, 2012 12:10 PM CST up reply actions  

Yeah that Wisconsin game was a lot of fun but it was really flukey

Also Northwestern is a better shooting team than Wisconsin this year.

by NorseHawk on Feb 6, 2012 12:26 PM CST up reply actions  

Yeah.

Obviously, Iowa still played well in that game and if they play like that again — or like they did in the first half against PSU — they should have a chance to win. But I still think we’ll need an off shooting night from jNW for it to happen.

"I want to be a cowboy. I don't want to be a panda. Pandas are boring, stupid and boring. Bad panda!"

by RossWB on Feb 6, 2012 12:30 PM CST up reply actions  

I’m already having nightmares about Shurna going off for 30 including 8/10 from 3. Plus, it’s on that godawful court which also pisses me off. I guess it’s positive I even know when their next game is, right?

by txhawkeye on Feb 6, 2012 12:52 PM CST up reply actions  

I love this Iowa team, but this year's NW is a matchup NIGHTMARE

I really think it’s going to be a layup drill for the Wildcats. That’s what they did against Illinois.

by Torbee on Feb 6, 2012 1:05 PM CST reply actions  

Yes

But if the offense is on Iowa might be able to score enough to keep it close or pull it out in the end. It’s not like jNW had a layup drill 20 point victory.

by PackerHawk on Feb 6, 2012 2:18 PM CST up reply actions  

Respectfully disagree Maury, (oops, wrong Tuesday guy)

NIGHTMARE’s for this squad are teams with good Centers and/or overwhelming speed and quickness, stuff Iowa just ain’t got.
This is a very interesting matchup, will largely come down to execution. With 3 full days of practice to prepare, I expect Fran will have team focused to carry out game plan.
Look for Iowa to switch defenses often so they can’t settle in and get a comfortable rhythm. Look for some pressure, and for Fran to perhaps dust off the one front zone that traps at the hash and in the corners. Also look for the man d to switch about every pick and roll.
Biggest key I think is ability to defend on the block. If we can stop all their guys down low without help, the 3s should be contested.
Ala @Wisky, also look for Iowa to attempt to push pace and get hoops before they can set up their zone, which they play pretty well.
And making shots would be nice.

by Sky High King on Feb 6, 2012 4:18 PM CST up reply actions  

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