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Things Fall Apart: Penn State Beats Iowa, 69-64

[Ed. Note: No Fran-Graphs today, thanks to some technical difficulties that struck the esteemed Mr. Cow. -- Ross]

7280153_-_wir_-_iowa_penn_st_basketball_-_02_16_2012_-_22

(ORIGINAL PHOTO CREDIT: Abby Drey, Centre Daily Times/AP)

First half of horrors. It would be tempting to call the first half of last night's game the worst first half of basketball Iowa's played all season. Tempting, but probably not true, if only because there have been a lot of nightmarish first halves this season: Creighton, Campbell, Clemson, Iowa State, Michigan State... Still, this was a really, really bad half and while a spate of missed free throws late in the game were also very costly, the biggest reason Iowa lost this game was probably the godawful first half they played. They allowed the worst-shooting team in the Big Ten to make 44% from the field and jump out to a 38-24 halftime lead, but if their defense was bad (Penn State got far too many second shot opportunities, in particular), their offense was horrendous. Iowa shot just 7/26 (27%) in the first half and went seven minutes (game time, not real time) between field goals at one point, making this the funhouse mirror version of the earlier Iowa-Penn State game, when Iowa got off to a blazing start and essentially blitzed Penn State out of the gym in the first half. But in that game Iowa was the one that came out with a ton of energy that they were able to convert into good shooting, good rebounding, and harrying defense; on Thursday night it was Penn State doing all that (more or less). The basketball gods giveth and the basketball gods taketh.

Backcourt blues. We saw yet another new starting lineup last night as an injury to Bryce Cartwright (reported as a high ankle sprain, so good luck seeing him at anywhere near peak effectiveness before the end of the season) forced a shake-up. Roy Devyn Marble moved back to the point guard spot he ably manned earlier this season in Cartwright's absence and was joined by Matt Gatens, Aaron White, Zach McCabe, and (in a slight surprise) Josh Oglesby. Marble had another solid all-around game: 13 points (albeit on 4/10 shooting), 8 rebounds, and 6 assists. Unfortunately, Oglesby did not have a game to remember: he went 1/7 (3 points) in 27 minutes and looked tentative and uncertain for too much of the game (he also went 1/3 from the free throw line, which hurt). Iowa has few enough outside shooters as it is -- they can ill afford to have one of them stinking up the joint. Cartwright claims he'll be ready to play on Sunday against Indiana, but it's hard to believe he won't be pretty limited by the high ankle sprain. With Eric May still hampered by back problems, there may be no option but to give Oglesby another start -- the backcourt is looking pretty thin. Marble played the full 40 minutes last night and Gatens played 38.

Star-divide

Matt Gatens in a losing effort. Speaking of Gatens, it was a tale of two (very, very different) halves for Iowa's senior leader. He was utterly anonymous in the first half, going 0/5 (on some terrible-looking shots) and struggling to contribute elsewhere on the floor, too. But in the second half he went off like a rocket, scoring 19 of his game-high 21 points and making five three pointers in a row (he finished 5/7 from downtown in the second half). It was the best long-range shooting effort I can remember seeing from an Iowa player since Justin Johnson went off against Indiana a few years ago (although Johnson's still ranks higher on the Holy Shit scale by virtue of having done it in the final two minutes of the game). Unfortunately, like Johnson's torrid run, Gatens' efforts came in a losing effort.

My favorite ginger. As has been the case for the last few games, Aaron White was again a bright spot: 16 points (on 6/11 shooting), 10 rebounds, and 3 blocks was a pretty good night of work. (The four turnovers were a bit of a problem, though.) White's development has been one of this season's most enjoyable storylines and it's been a lot of fun to see him continue to put up numbers and good performances even as we get deep into conference play. He's an incredibly fun player to watch and seeing him grow and improve over the next three years will be a blast.

Strategery. There's been some debate about Fran's decision to have Iowa foul Jon Graham late in the game last night when Iowa was down just three. He confirmed that he told the team to foul only Graham; if he had never touched the ball on that possession, Iowa would have just tried to play defense and force a stop. Fran's logic was that Graham was a 35% free throw shooter on the season and sending him to the line to miss a free throw would preserve time on the clock without expanding Iowa's deficit. Unfortunately, it backfired and Graham made both free throws, giving Penn State a basically insurmountable five-point advantage. Oops. It's easy to say, in hindsight, that Iowa should have just stuck with playing defense after the timeout and tried to force a stop. Personally, I can see the logic of Fran's approach, but I would have preferred just playing defense and forcing a stop. Penn State hadn't been especially sharp down the stretch of that game and while expecting the Iowa defense to get a stop is often a fool's errand, they'd done an okay job in the second half.

What now? The loss drops Iowa's record to 13-13, 5-8 in the Big Ten. The good news is that their next two games are at home, where they've generally played much better this season. The bad news is that those games are against Indiana (Sunday), a good team and a terrible match-up for Iowa, and Wisconsin (Thursday), a hot team itching for revenge. Those hopes of a .500 Big Ten record and a winning overall record just got a lot more distant with last night's loss. Sigh.

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Im officially in "well, next year will be better" mode

"Your spelling and grammar errors belie a seriously skilled thought process"- therealCatnuts

by justsomehawkeyefan on Feb 17, 2012 12:15 PM CST reply actions  

Yep

Until this game I was still holding out hope that they could sneak into the NIT. Sad that my hopes for mediocrity will be unfulfilled, but OTOH next year really does look like it will be better. They might even be a bubble team!

by taliesin on Feb 17, 2012 1:22 PM CST up reply actions  

I'm with you

Losing Gatens will stink – there will be times where we’re really going to miss him next year. That said, the freshman class will add depth, athleticism, and size pretty much across the board.

Comedy is where the mind goes to tickle itself.

by Nickhawk08 on Feb 17, 2012 1:25 PM CST up reply actions  

Amen

It breaks my heart that he’s a senior and has had the misfortune of suffering the fallout from the Lic-tomic bomb. He played on some of the worst Iowa basketball teams ever and bless his heart the guy never transfered or quit.

You taste of America....

by MoMoney MoBrown on Feb 17, 2012 2:53 PM CST up reply actions  

does the ncaa grant a fifth year for good players on bad teams?

if not, can they start?

"Your spelling and grammar errors belie a seriously skilled thought process"- therealCatnuts

by justsomehawkeyefan on Feb 17, 2012 2:58 PM CST up reply actions  

They should

It should be called the “Kyle McCann Rule.”

by mikjones24 on Feb 17, 2012 3:07 PM CST up reply actions  

Why not the "Ladell Betts Rule"?

"I want to be a cowboy. I don't want to be a panda. Pandas are boring, stupid and boring. Bad panda!"

by RossWB on Feb 17, 2012 3:23 PM CST up reply actions  

Didn't Kyle McCann too, for that matter?

"I want to be a cowboy. I don't want to be a panda. Pandas are boring, stupid and boring. Bad panda!"

by RossWB on Feb 17, 2012 3:31 PM CST up reply actions  

derp

For some reason I thought he left in 00. Damn you Scott Mullen. You always confuse me.

by mikjones24 on Feb 17, 2012 3:33 PM CST up reply actions  

Yeah, McCann was still there in 01.

And the subject of our ire since he was denying us MOAR BRAD BANKS.

"I want to be a cowboy. I don't want to be a panda. Pandas are boring, stupid and boring. Bad panda!"

by RossWB on Feb 17, 2012 3:54 PM CST up reply actions  

'Lest we not forget the honor and the glory of the 27 years

Jess Settles played for Iowa
or so it seemed

Her noblesse exceeded her oblige

by OhioHawk on Feb 17, 2012 4:35 PM CST up reply actions  

Also, the way Iowa has been playing defense

i think Fran made the right call, even if it didnt work. now when Iowa starts proving it can play good defense on a regular basis i expect he will rely on it more in those situations, but sometimes even the good plays dont work. thems the breaks.

"Your spelling and grammar errors belie a seriously skilled thought process"- therealCatnuts

by justsomehawkeyefan on Feb 17, 2012 12:20 PM CST reply actions  

about that defense

I watched the whole game last night and got more and more frustrated with our man defense. PSU is a very poor outside shooting team and they were lighting us up by driving the lane and with offensive rebounds. Why did we wait so long to pack in a zone and make them shoot from the outside or get in trouble when they drove into traffic?

We were down 13 and the comeback started with the switch to zone. Granted, it didn’t work flawlessly, that in bounds pass with 3 seconds on the shot clock where we gave up a lay up was inexcusable but we looked a lot better in zone than man. Also being short handed zone is less running, saving Marble and Gatens a little.

Someone who knows more about basketball please explain this to me.

"SUPREME IN STATE: University of Iowa Football Team Established Undisputed Superiority over Football Teams of Rival Institutions within Boundaries of Hawkeyedom.—Trounces Ames" - The Iowa Alumnus

by The Bacon Explosion on Feb 17, 2012 1:17 PM CST up reply actions  

If you are foul a player who only shoots 35% from the FT line.

In a 1-and-1 situation the percentages fall as follows:

0 points – 65%.
1 point – 0.35 * 0.65 = 23%
2 points – 0.35 * 0.35 = 12%

That gives you an expected point total of 0.47 points per trip to the line. Compare that to the roughly 1 point per trip they get if we play defense, well that’s a no-brainer.

Fran made the right call, even though it didn’t turn out in our favor this time.

by DrHenryKillinger on Feb 17, 2012 5:26 PM CST up reply actions  

Math is power

Right call and bad outcome…end of story.

Please don't tell me how you hate BSU or their turf...I know all too well and keep my toliet water blue for a reason.

by BoiseHawk on Feb 17, 2012 6:34 PM CST up reply actions  

2 things though...

1) Graham was 8/23 on FT, and is a freshman, so I don’t have anything to go on other than that small sample. I would wager that his “true” FT% (or the actual probability that he will make a FT) is somewhere north of 50%. Even the very worst free throw shooters bottom out at about 50%. For example, Shaq finished at 52.7% on his career.

2) The negative utility for the first point scored by PSU in that situation was far greater than the negative utility of the second point. Rather than expected PPP, probability of PSU even getting one point is a better question for this situation. Given the above, I would guess that Graham was > 50% probability to score at least one point from the line. I would also guess that PSU would be < 50% probability to score from the field.

Now, those two things said, I still don’t mind the decision, because, if he does miss, Iowa has a lot more time to work with than if they sit back and play D. My intuition is that the benefit of the extra time makes up for the stuff above.

Jack Trice Stadium - Easily one of the Top 10 Stadiums in Central Iowa

by Not Marv Cook on Feb 17, 2012 10:02 PM CST up reply actions  

Defense - an ongoing concern or a personnel issue?

Should I be concerned about Iowa’s defense in general under Coach Fran, or is this year’s horrendousness mostly a function of guys playing out-of-postion, youth, and just plain lack of defensive talent?

I’m by no means a basketball expert, so those who know these things feel free to educate me.

by Torbee on Feb 17, 2012 1:49 PM CST reply actions  

I think it's a personnel issue.

The presence of a good big man in the middle hampers this defense. If someone drives, everyone collapses and it leaves the outside open.

"West Texas seems to be full of fake boobs providing a comfortable shade for well-developed pot bellies" - Lycurgus (06/24/2011)

by BStylin Hawkye on Feb 17, 2012 2:01 PM CST up reply actions  

I hope it's mainly a personnel issue.

I think we’ll have a better idea of how the defense stands after next year.

"I want to be a cowboy. I don't want to be a panda. Pandas are boring, stupid and boring. Bad panda!"

by RossWB on Feb 17, 2012 2:21 PM CST up reply actions  

We are not fast,

and we don’t have good interior defense.

That doesn’t help in the half-court D.

Dr. Tom made up for it by emphasizing frequent full-court pressure and rebounding. We don’t really do either of those very well, either.

The answer would seem to be zone more. But then you run into a team like jNW or IU that can shoot over the top of it.

We will become more intensity!!! --What Reading Rambler thinks Tom Brands should do.

by WaterlooChazz on Feb 17, 2012 2:49 PM CST up reply actions  

"Not Fast"

In the few games I have watched, the team quickness (or lack of it) has seemed to stand out to me as well.

by GuttedSnowBird on Feb 17, 2012 5:36 PM CST via mobile up reply actions  

Great question

I’ve been wondering/worrying about that all year. It’s not just the lack of a big man. The perimeter defense stinks, too.

by H I McDonnough on Feb 17, 2012 4:18 PM CST up reply actions  

Gatens going ape aside

I think something that’s lost is just how good of a second half Iowa played as a team. The first half was a disaster by any measure, and Penn State played two solid halves of basketball, something they are a danger to do at home. Iowa making that game close was no small feat.

GO IOWA AWESOME

by ckmneon on Feb 17, 2012 2:41 PM CST reply actions  

Missed the whole game, as we were out looking at potential new cats.

Sounds like I didn’t miss much. Plus I got a eat a gyro. Win-win for me.


"It is far better to grasp the universe as it really is than to persist in delusion - however satisfying and reassuring."

by Bucketochicken on Feb 17, 2012 3:44 PM CST reply actions  

I'm conflicted.

On one hand, I’m sick of the “moral victories”, i.e. coming back from such a hole to make it a game at the end.

On the other hand, it’s encouraging that we get almost all of our guys back next year and beyond. With the new guys coming in, we should be damn good next year and forward.

I really think we’ll see just how much Gatens means to this team next year. The guy plays his ass off every game. He should, and certainly will, get a MASSIVE ovation on Senior Day and it will be well deserved. He is the epitome of a Hawkeye basketball player.

"HOW'S IT HANGIN, SLAPNUTS!"

by Swarley on Feb 17, 2012 4:16 PM CST reply actions  

I think how much we miss him

is going to depend on if someone else is going to “stand up” and be the team leader. It looks like Marble is ready, we will see what happens.

Gatens in this game, was the only guy that wanted to shoot, everyone else looked poop your pants scared to miss.

"SUPREME IN STATE: University of Iowa Football Team Established Undisputed Superiority over Football Teams of Rival Institutions within Boundaries of Hawkeyedom.—Trounces Ames" - The Iowa Alumnus

by The Bacon Explosion on Feb 18, 2012 10:35 AM CST up reply actions  

It has nothing to do with moral vicotories
but has everything to do with moral standards
and in my humble opinion this is what make great Hawks

This. Bravo.

Comedy is where the mind goes to tickle itself.

by Nickhawk08 on Feb 17, 2012 5:23 PM CST up reply actions  

Yes!

There is a right way to go through life.

by GuttedSnowBird on Feb 17, 2012 5:40 PM CST via mobile up reply actions  

Wow

Cant believe we lost another game.

by nolehawk on Feb 18, 2012 12:18 AM CST reply actions  

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