Fran-Graphs, Purdue

by Horace E. Cow on Jan 18, 2012 11:02 AM CST in Iowa Hawkeyes Basketball

[Video still credit: BTN]

If you wanted to write up a recipe for how Iowa could have upset Purdue in West Lafayette, it might have gone something like this:

Get Purdue in foul trouble
Take care of the ball
Make a few unexpected shots, preferably threes
Keep Ryne Smith off the three-point line
Make your free throws

Apart from the last item on the list, Iowa followed the recipe very faithfully for the first half. Purdue committed several reach-in fouls early and just as importantly, the refs were willing to endure the boos of thousands of Jimmy Buffett-clad Purdue fans* and call them on it. After that, the Boilermakers' stifling defense loosened up noticeably and Iowa did a good job finding cutters in the lane for easy shots. Meanwhile, Iowa was careful with the ball, made several long jumpers that normally don't go in, and got arguably the best offensive half of Zach McCabe's Iowa career (5-9 FG, 2-2 3PT, 13 points). The defense was solid, keeping the Boilermakers out of the paint while contesting threes, Smith only had one three through the first twenty minutes, and Robbie Hummel was limited to six points on 3-8 shooting. In the first half (or more specifically, the first 17 minutes), Iowa played at pretty near peak efficiency, both on offense and defense. And that was kind of the problem, because it just couldn't last.

* Or were they Purdue-clad Jimmy Buffett fans? In any event, they weren't full human beings.

When Iowa's energy waned, when the long jumpers stopped connecting, when the defense lost a bit of its cohesion, the drop-off was severe. Purdue suddenly found itself able to get in the lane more easily, and took advantage. Melsahn Basabe was a non-presence for most of the game due to foul trouble, and it hurt Iowa. Except for the seven minutes that Archie played, Iowa found itself without a creditable shot-blocker in the post and without much rebounding heft. Purdue took advantage, grabbing nine offensive rebounds in the second half and winning the rebounding battle decisively on both ends of the court.

The interesting thing about this game was that Iowa pretty much sustained its defensive effort throughout. Purdue shot slightly better in the second half, and their free throw totals were inflated by some end of game intentional fouling, but overall, Iowa played well on defense in the second half. Fran McCaffery made a smart adjustment midway through the second half, switching to zone and sending Archie in to anchor it. It worked very well and Purdue went without a score for about three minutes. It was curious, actually, that McCaffery switched away from the Archie zone down the stretch, because it really did seem to cause Purdue difficulty, much in the same way that it stymied Minnesota. But even when Iowa switched back to man-to-man, the defense was good enough to win the game.

The problem, instead, was the offense. Iowa succeeded in the first half by virtue of uncommon accuracy and their use of few new offensive wrinkles. I haven't had a chance to watch the game again, but in the first half at least, Iowa seemed to run a lot of high pick and pops with Marble and McCabe or Cartwright and McCabe, allowing McCabe to get good looks from distance and forcing Purdue to choose between defending the paint and defending the perimeter. Marble also took advantage of his height mismatch with Lewis Jackson, cutting to the basket for easy shots and canning a few jumpers. For a while the Hawks really seemed to have Purdue confused on defense, but that dried up in the second half, so it's possible Matt Painter made some adjustments in the way his team defended Marble and the pick and roll. Some of the shots Iowa made in the first half were just difficult shots that Iowa couldn't expect to make over the long haul -- I'm thinking of McCabe and Marble both making several long jumpers and Cartwright banking a circus shot high off the glass. Their eFG% was a very good 53.7% in the first half, and dropped to a meager 43.1% in the second half, which goes to show how much things changed for Iowa's offense. If the Hawks could have kept that percentage closer to the 50% range, they probably would have won the game. Credit goes to Purdue for stepping up their defensive effort in the second half.

In general, Iowa felt about one player short of making this upset. Gatens was mostly invisible for the first 35 minutes, taking five of his nine shots in the last 4:15. Aaron White and Cartwright both provided some scoring, but the trio of Basabe, May and Oglesby combined for one point on 0-5 shooting. Marble and McCabe played out of their minds for much of the game, but they needed more scoring help, and Purdue did a very good job of making things difficult for them to get it. Ryne Smith in particular did a good job of hounding Gatens, but it also seemed like Gatens didn't assert himself on offense until it was very late in the day. I don't know if that's a strategic decision, fatigue or what, but many times even a bad shot by Gatens is better than some of the other shots Iowa was getting.

It would be easy to point to Iowa's 11 missed free throws and say that is why they lost, but remember, Iowa shoots about 72% from the line as a team. If they had just shot their average, they would have scored about three more points. That would have helped, but it probably wouldn't have tilted the game to the Hawks. And they got to the line 30 times! In West Lafayette! If you group their free throws into two-shot "possessions", then Iowa scored 19 points on 15 free throw possessions for an offensive efficiency of 1.27 points per possession. That's actually a really good figure -- far better than Iowa's overall offensive efficiency for the game of .996. It was frustrating to watch Iowa clank shot after shot off the rim, but getting to the line was actually a key part of their offensive success.

The really worrying thing about the game was the play of Basabe. He got called for a few iffy fouls and sat down, but the frightening thing was that Iowa looked a little better when he wasn't on the court, at least on offense. The rebounding was slightly worse, maybe, and his shot-blocking was missed at times, but that was about it. Purdue is the kind of team that is kryptonite for Basabe -- a strong, physical team that harasses players in the post and forces quick decisions -- so maybe it was bound to be an off game for him. But the ripple effect of Basabe sitting was serious, if only because it forced other players to stay in longer than normal (especially McCabe). White actually did a serviceable job playing as a sort of center, recording two blocks, but he doesn't have the strength to play in the pivot for long stretches of time. Iowa needs someone to hold down the post for long stretches of the game, and there just aren't any great options right now. Basabe, Brommer and Archie all have glaring weaknesses, but of the three, I thought Archie did the best against Purdue. He was a total non-factor on offense, and predictably dribbled the ball out of bounds when someone tried to pass him the ball as he rolled to the basket on the pick and roll, but his defense was good, especially in the zone. He's got a fairly high center of gravity, so he can be pushed around in the post, but he does have long arms and good mobility, and can contest shots. The only problem is that Iowa has to play four on five on offense when he's in the game. It's a conundrum, and Fran will probably just have to muddle along with some mixture of the three, as well as a good dose of McCabe/White small ball. But if Archie's minutes could go up to 15 a game rather than the current 5-7, it might be possible to give McCabe and White the rest they need to be more effective as the game stretches on.

Iowa now has a week off before facing Nebraska at home on the 26th. In spite of the frustration of this game, it did mark a step forward for the team. McCabe is starting to look like a serious offensive threat, and if he can make threes reliably, he will be a very tough match-up. Iowa also started to show some creativity in the face of intense defensive pressure, and while they couldn't sustain it for two halves, they didn't fold either. Winning in West Lafayette is always a tough task, but the Hawks showed a little more maturity and toughness when it came to dealing with the noise, pressure and physical intensity of a Big 10 road game than they did against Michigan State.

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The Buffett night was embarrassing

just a travesty our athletic department would stoop to that. I am sorry.

A futile crusade to prevent mass ignorance

HammerAndRails, SBNation's Boilermaker Blog

by BoilerTMill on Jan 18, 2012 11:06 AM CST reply actions

I was embarrassed for all of the Purdue fans

even if they weren’t themselves… Not the best thought out theme night

"He lowballed us and said: 'Take it or leave it. If you don't take our offer, you are rolling the dice.' I said: 'Consider them rolled.' " - Jim "Huge Brass Balls" Delaney

by ClaybornSmash on Jan 18, 2012 11:20 AM CST up reply actions

Don't blame them,

they were just wasting away again in Mackey-ritaville.

We will become more intensity!!! --What Reading Rambler thinks Tom Brands should do.

by WaterlooChazz on Jan 18, 2012 12:28 PM CST up reply actions

Yes I am a Painter, two hundred years too late

The student crowd don’t thunder, there’s nothin’ to plunder
I’m an over-forty boiler of fate arriving too late, arriving too late

by the notorious r.d.m. on Jan 18, 2012 3:13 PM CST up reply actions

It's not Mackeyritaville, it's Purduecoladasburgh

Manager at BT Powerhouse a Big Ten basketball blog
@babaoreally

by babaoreally on Jan 18, 2012 9:33 PM CST via Android app up reply actions

Per Tito:

Melsahn Basbabe’s final stat line: 7 minutes 0-0 FG, 1-2 FT, 2 Reb, 1 TO, 1 Block, and 4 fouls. That’s a pace of 22.9 fouls per 40 minutes.

WTF is going on with him anymore?

The High Porch Picnic

by mikjones24 on Jan 18, 2012 11:09 AM CST reply actions

Fran said after the game he pulled his groin and hasn't practiced since Michigan

I’m not sold that it’s the only source of the problem, but it’s something.

Before you respond, let me remind you: Brian Cook called me smug, which makes me the Obama of smugness. I'm basically Smugbama.

by Patrick Vint on Jan 18, 2012 11:14 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs

nice thing

the rest of the team is progressing to the point where he isn’t vital for us staying in a game. Would be great to have him back to form though.

"40 MINUTES OF MEH!" - djwoody

by The Bacon Explosion on Jan 18, 2012 11:35 AM CST up reply actions

sounds very similar to the disappearing act with May last year

pulled groin/overall confidence and ability to stay in games, pretty similar no?

Son of a bitch, I'm sick of these dolphins.
@keepitupguys

by sailorjerry on Jan 18, 2012 11:48 AM CST up reply actions

Yeah but May was pretty strong out of the gate this year

But when the competition got better his performance plummeted. I think that speaks to his overall capabilities rather than health. Then again, you could say that about anyone. I just single him out because he’s been a ghost.

Mel’s performance may be due to an injury but I suspect it is more of a confidence issue.

The High Porch Picnic

by mikjones24 on Jan 18, 2012 12:03 PM CST via mobile up reply actions

I think the comments people said last night re: McCabe also apply here to Mel

He’d be an extremely good basketball player if he were maybe 2" taller.

Comedy is where the mind goes to tickle itself.

by Nickhawk08 on Jan 18, 2012 3:23 PM CST up reply actions

Hey Mel

Glen Worley called. He wants his stat line back.

by Jdub1126 on Jan 18, 2012 1:02 PM CST up reply actions 4 recs

Oh that's a rec

That’s a Worley stat line, no doubt.

Comedy is where the mind goes to tickle itself.

by Nickhawk08 on Jan 18, 2012 3:15 PM CST up reply actions

Rec'd

That’s a travel AND a foul on the same play!

by djwoody on Jan 18, 2012 4:40 PM CST up reply actions

Basabe's last 5 games

Min – 11 min, 0 pts, 1 reb
OSU – 14 min, 2 pts, 4 reb
MSU – 26 min, 10 pts, 3 reb
MICH – 26 min, 7 pts, 3 reb
PU – 7 min, 1 pt, 2 reb

by H I McDonnough on Jan 18, 2012 3:17 PM CST up reply actions

It's kind of remarkable that we've still managed to win two of those games.

If you’d told me before the season that Mel would be putting up numbers like that, I would have assumed we were screwed big-time.

"I want to be a cowboy. I don't want to be a panda. Pandas are boring, stupid and boring. Bad panda!"

by RossWB on Jan 18, 2012 3:32 PM CST up reply actions

The stat line above is a little misleading for the MICH game.

He did a really good job passing out of double teams and finding the open man in that game. Otherwise, yeah, disappointing on the whole.

by StewMonkey13 on Jan 18, 2012 3:56 PM CST up reply actions

True

But I assumed Mel would need to be a consistent 15-8 guy or so in order for us to be any good at all this year. The fact that he’s been nowhere near that good has been a very unpleasant development, but the fact that we’ve been pretty good (OSU and MSU notwithstanding) anyway has been a very pleasant surprise.

"I want to be a cowboy. I don't want to be a panda. Pandas are boring, stupid and boring. Bad panda!"

by RossWB on Jan 18, 2012 4:22 PM CST up reply actions

He just looks plain lazy to me.

"WELCOME TA EARFF!"

by Bucketochicken on Jan 18, 2012 4:23 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs

He looks lazy because he misses two shots

Then starts moping and is done for the night.

The High Porch Picnic

by mikjones24 on Jan 18, 2012 5:41 PM CST up reply actions

Is it just me

or do the two Frans look like they’re leaning in toward each other?….

Whelp, there goes my peace of mind for a while.

by TiltingAtDrewTateWindmills on Jan 18, 2012 11:32 AM CST reply actions

We've long been past the point of moral victories with the football team

but for Fran’s squad I think they’re still fully acceptable in certain situations. For the Hawks to come out after an upset of a ranked team and then follow it up with a performance like this at one of the tougher Big Ten venues is a pleasant surprise. The game could have easily gone their way with a few more made free throws, a few lucky breaks and some more mature decision making. No, the untimely unforced turnovers are still frustrating (especially with Marble) and the rebounding all but disappeared late in the game, but overall it was encouraging effort. Hopefully the week off will serve this team well as they head into a stretch with a number of now very winnable games.

Less memorable than Sam Okey's Hawkeye career.

by Kyle McCann't on Jan 18, 2012 11:35 AM CST reply actions

It's weird...

I see two heads, but then I also see a lamp! What a world we live in!

by hawk6894 on Jan 18, 2012 12:00 PM CST reply actions

I see a penis.

"I want to be a cowboy. I don't want to be a panda. Pandas are boring, stupid and boring. Bad panda!"

by RossWB on Jan 18, 2012 12:28 PM CST up reply actions

That's what she said

And by she I mean your mom.

And the penis is mine

I’m having sex with your mom, that is the point of this post.

by NorseHawk on Jan 18, 2012 12:35 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs

Were you watching Eric Manging work a telestrator again?

(via)

Twitter

by The Mexican't on Jan 18, 2012 12:41 PM CST up reply actions

Vernon Davis has a penis on his head.

LOL

"I want to be a cowboy. I don't want to be a panda. Pandas are boring, stupid and boring. Bad panda!"

by RossWB on Jan 18, 2012 12:54 PM CST up reply actions

Mushroom stamped!

"West Texas seems to be full of fake boobs providing a comfortable shade for well-developed pot bellies" - Lycurgus (06/24/2011)

by BStylin Hawkye on Jan 18, 2012 2:08 PM CST up reply actions

I missed a lot of the first half while making dinner, and was annoyed as all hell watching the second half.

Watching the team get within 2 and then completely piss the game down their legs was frustrating. It’s been said multiple times, but the issue with this team is clearly consistency. Hopefully they can collect themselves and put together a nice run to finish the season.

Twitter

by The Mexican't on Jan 18, 2012 12:44 PM CST reply actions

They did the exact same thing in the first game, in case you didn't see that one

That game was always within a possession or two. We’d cut it to 2, get a stop, then have a bone-headed turnover. Consistency is the issue.

Comedy is where the mind goes to tickle itself.

by Nickhawk08 on Jan 18, 2012 3:27 PM CST up reply actions

That makes me optimistic

Consistency comes with maturity, and we have a young damn team.

We’ve definitely improved as the season has gone on, and the schedule gets a bit lighter from here on out (still B1G competition, granted). If we had gotten over the hump vs Purdue both times, we’d be at 5-2 in conference and well positioned to make our own destiny. As it is, I think we still have an outside shot at an NIT berth.

And even if this season doesn’t quite pan out, we have a top 25 recruiting class coming in next year with some legit bigs and point guards.

"If you can't dazzle them with brilliance, baffle them with bull." - W.C. Fields

by rockyh on Jan 18, 2012 4:33 PM CST up reply actions

Our deficiencies became very clear in the second half last night.

We don’t have a rebounder. McCabe is more than serviceable under the basket on offense and has turned out to be a very pleasant surprise this year, but he’s just not athletic enough to be our primary rebounder on the defensive end.

The second issue is virtually the same as the first, we’re missing a defensive presence under the basket. McCabe doesn’t have the height, leaping ability, and overall athleticism needed to consistently affect shots in the lane.

Offensively we need McCabe and he adds quite a bit. It is clear that our best lineup, right now, has to include McCabe but that leaves us vulnerable on the defensive end.

Additionally, we need to figure out a better method for our perimeter defense. Purdue was able to easily use screens to create mismatches and that was their entire gameplan in the second half. They would use ball screens to force switches and as soon as one of their quicker perimeter players, usually Jackson, got a defender on him who he could blow right by, he did it. We’ve got perimeter defenders who can stay in front of anyone, including Jackson who might be the quickest guard in the Big Ten, but we can’t be asking certain guys to stay in front of quicker guards, and that’s what ended up happening in the second half. Maybe zone is the answer but I have been liking Fran’s tendency to switch up between man and zone in order to keep the opponent guessing. Hopefully this is correctable through better gameplanning because if we don’t fix this it will continue to be a problem.

Lastly, I think we got outhustled in the second half. Purdue was more aggressive on both ends and when you have the deficiencies that we do and you add to that the fact that they we were the more flat-footed team in the second half, it doesn’t bode well for us. That’s not so much a knock on our guys, most of whom were playing hard, it’s just to say that Purdue came out and beat us in that aspect, and that’s one of the things that has made them so successful under Painter.

Overall though, I thought it was a good performance and left a lot of room for improvement.

"It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood..." - Teddy Roosevelt

by HawKCP on Jan 18, 2012 1:03 PM CST reply actions

just how slow, fat and flat-footed do you think McCabe is?

by rupertj on Jan 18, 2012 7:34 PM CST up reply actions

He's also short.

Don’t forget that.

I wasn’t calling him out for those things, it’s just a fact of life that he’s playing out of position when he’s asked to man the middle defensively. It’s something that he’s got to do at times for this team because he is such an asset in other areas and we don’t have anyone else who has proven worthy of playing time and capable of filling the lane defensively.

I don’t think anyone would claim that McCabe has elite level athleticism, especially since he put on some weight coming into this year, and while he’s not necessarily short, at times the fact that he’s 6-7 and battling with guys who are much taller hurts. The second half of the game last night was one of those times.

Capish?

by HawKCP on Jan 18, 2012 9:45 PM CST up reply actions