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Fran-Graphs, Michigan State

Baddefense_medium
There's not much need for analysis of this game, and I don't feel like cracking jokes or laughing at Fran going ape on a folding chair. This was the worst game Iowa played all year -- worse than the Campbell game, worse than Creighton, worse than Iowa State. After some impressive strides on defense against Wisconsin and Minnesota, Iowa took 30 steps backward, and the result was an unprecedented fire-bombing by the Spartans.

"But isn't Michigan State the #7 team in the country? Shouldn't they have won?" Yes and yes, but if you watched this game, you'll know it wasn't a case of Michigan State doing rare or difficult basketball things, it was a case of Michigan State making layups, dunks and wide-open three pointers. Michigan State made 37 shots in the game, and, if the play-by-play is to be believed, 24 of those makes were dunks or layups and 10 were three-pointers (and they were open three-pointers to boot). Hold on, I don't think I put enough emphasis on that...

34 of Michigan State's 37 made shots were dunks, layups or three-pointers.

Michigan State's effective field goal percentage in this game was 70%. For comparison, Michigan State averages an eFG% of 52.6%, and the best shooting team in the country averages 58.7%. Spartans scored about 1.3 points per possession (95 points in approximately 74 possessions), while their season average is 1.09 and the national leader is at 1.22. The Spartans were getting close to the theoretical limits of how well a basketball team can shoot while opposing players are on the court.

Star-divide

But those are just dry numbers. To really appreciate how poor Iowa's defense was last night, you would need to go back and watch every play where the Hawks made some elementary error. In other words, you would need to watch the entire game again. Take the example pictured above, where all five players collapsed on Derrick Nix, leaving three Spartans so wide open that they were all waving their arms to get Nix's attention (and if Nix were Magic Johnson, he could have passed it over his head to another wide-open player under the basket). Or take any of the plays where Michigan State got a rebound and turned it into a layup because Bryce Cartwright did not get back on defense. Or the time Eric May abandoned his man under the basket to cover a man at the three-point line, conceding a lay-up. Or the time Melsahn Basabe allowed his man to walk right past him to the lane. Or when Devyn Marble turned his head in Iowa's "zone" and allowed a man to cut behind him and catch a pass for an easy layup. Or... well, you could go on, and no name on the team would be omitted. It was as close to a lay-up drill as you will see in college basketball.

Turnovers didn't help, and I see in the post-game comments that Fran McCaffery and some of the players felt that Michigan State was being too physical with Iowa. Here's what Fran said he was yelling about when he spiked the infamous chair:

"I wanted them to get the defenders off them," McCaffery said. "Couldn't you hear me? I yelled out loud enough."

It's true: Michigan State was playing very physical with Iowa, and the refs were allowing it. Many of the steals that Michigan State got, especially early in the game, came off of minor collisions that could have been called fouls. And the Spartans never passed up the opportunity to put a hand on an Iowa player as he cut or reach across his wrist as he dribbled. Iowa has gotten used to getting fouls called in those situations, and is unable to play through that kind of contact when the foul didn't come. Turnovers led to fast breaks and fast breaks led to layups and dunks. That was certainly part of the game.

On the other hand, the fact that home teams are allowed to get extra handsy in the Big 10 should be a surprise to exactly no one on Iowa. It's an unfortunate fact of life, and it's not going to change. And against Michigan State, it was as if the Hawks collectively decided: "this game is rigged, what's the point in trying?" Their frustration on offense led to passivity on defense.

Things got out of hand fairly early in this game, so maybe the best thing to do is forget about this result and move on. But for a team like Iowa, process has to matter just as much as outcome, and Iowa's process against Michigan State was not good. They looked tired, indifferent, and lazy, especially on defense. Michigan State is a great team, and would have probably won no matter what, but Iowa seemed to agree with that sentiment a little too readily. Only one player really showed consistent effort throughout, and that was freshman Aaron White. He finished with 15 points, four offensive rebounds, two blocks and two steals, and kept Iowa within shouting distance early with his activity on the boards and movement off the ball.

Beyond that, there's not much positive to say about this game. When you have only two more field goal makes than turnovers, when you miss nearly half your foul shots, when you shoot below 40% from the field, when your defense is of the type normally seen in a particularly disorganized pickup game, and when the opposition is good to begin with, losing by 34 is probably the best result you can expect.

Stray observations

  • I know my reaction to this game is particularly negative, and I don't want to read too much into it, but the effort here seemed far worse than against Ohio State, even if the result was roughly the same. It seems possible that the Hawks were just exhausted after the game Saturday.
  • A pretty depressing day for Iowa sports, no? The Coker mess and then this sandblasting, all within a couple of hours?
  • It's interesting to note how teams have changed their defense of Basabe. For much of last year and the beginning of this year, teams doubled Basabe instantly and tried to get the ball out of his hands. Now teams play him one-on-one and give him plenty of space on the perimeter. He can be a threat when he gets the ball inside, but his outside shot is still inconsistent and he has a hard time dribbling or posting up without making a turnover. Iowa's options in the post aren't wonderful, but does the team really look dramatically different with Brommer, Archie, or even Gabe Olaseni playing instead of Basabe? Those three add little on offense, except off of rebounds and at the rim, but Basabe isn't adding that much himself. And all three are taller, stronger, and arguably better defenders. I know it sounds crazy, but should Basabe be coming off the bench, at least until he improves? There are teams where Basabe has a good match-up and excels, but those are teams without strong post players. Against teams with big centers, Basabe is just too much of a liability on defense and too hesitant on offense to add much. The counter-argument would be that benching him would destroy his confidence, but that argument has always struck me as a little one-sided. Couldn't it also motivate him to improve?
  • Do you think Tom Izzo remembers losing to Iowa last year? He kept Draymond Green in until there were just six minutes left in the game, even though the Spartans were up by 26 less than a minute into the second half. He seemed to have a "Iowa delenda est" attitude toward the Hawkeyes, as if he wanted to salt the earth of Iowa basketball and never allow it to grow again. I hope all the Iowa players remember that and take their revenge as soon as possible.
  • The point at which I spiked my chair? When a pass bounced off of May's head into the hands of a Spartan, leading to a fast break? How about yours?

Comment 35 comments  |  2 recs  | 

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Comments

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i watched about 10 minutes of the first half

and had to turn it off.

it was bad, everytime down the court iowa would make a stupid pass, pick up the dribble, or take an awful shot. then they would lolly-gag back on defense and watch as michigan state players ran circles around them.

i know they’re young and not very talented, but they play stupid basketball far to often.

by jakeic on Jan 11, 2012 11:41 AM CST reply actions  

Where's the leadership on the floor?

Its nice that Aaron white is showing some intensity but they need all of the players to play with a chip on their shoulder, and it all starts with the seniors. Somebody needs to step up and get in everybody’s face about the lack of effort. Sadly I don’t think Gatens or Cartwright is going to be one of those people, I am hoping that Marble can step up a take on this role cause I don’t see anyone else doing it this year or next.

by hawkeye0485 on Jan 11, 2012 12:03 PM CST reply actions  

After last night and the OSU game - 3 things

Either
A) We are not very talented.
B) The coaching is poor.
C) The players don’t care.

I have no idea which one it might be.

It's so sad how a family can be torn apart by something as simple as a pack of wild dogs.

by FiveSecondRuleChef on Jan 11, 2012 12:08 PM CST reply actions  

Sure - why not?

It's so sad how a family can be torn apart by something as simple as a pack of wild dogs.

by FiveSecondRuleChef on Jan 11, 2012 1:44 PM CST up reply actions  

I agree; why not?

There has been some troubling on court play. So often guys do not seem to know what they should be doing or where they should be at on defense. As the first poster said, “they play stupid basketball far to often.” How can that be at this point in the season?

Having said that, I love this staff. Heck, Speraw is an accomplished head coach himself. As has been said many times, some of the personnel just doesn’t fit what Fran is trying to do. Maybe Fran is just saying screw it, we are going to implement this style and system anyway, in hopes that it will pay dividends in the future as the roster evolves.

by JimJF on Jan 12, 2012 7:04 AM CST up reply actions  

I turned it on with 16 left in the first half

We had 38 points, when I shut it off there was 5 minutes left and we had 42 points. MSU had scored approximately 35-40 points over the same period.

The one that killed me is the 3 on 1 break we had and made a half assed attempt at a lob. MSU’s single defender was able to grab it, shot a quick outlet pass and it wound up being a dunk for MSU.

It appears we just couldn’t take that first punch in the face the last two games. If things start going bad early we don’t have the ability to recover and it has shown. I would imagine this is a lack of upperclassmen and leadership. Hopefully they are learning from this, God knows Fran is letting them know in no uncertain terms his displeasure.

"40 MINUTES OF MEH!" - djwoody

by The Bacon Explosion on Jan 11, 2012 12:13 PM CST reply actions  

Last night I thought we did take the first punch

It looked like it was going to be a mess (even more than it ended up being), and they held the deficit right around 10 points for a large part of the first half. Then MSU went on a 16-0 near the end of the half. And that was that.

by rupertj on Jan 11, 2012 12:46 PM CST up reply actions  

As did I

I was able to get WHO in Denver on my way home from work, and it sounded like Iowa was hanging around (or at least, that’s the conclusion I drew from the Dolphin play-by-play; he’s just not very good when it comes to calling basketball. Brent Balbinot, who did the Wisconsin game, is MUCH better). Fortunately, I missed the end of the half.

I thought Izzo went a little overboard. He had Green and Appling in the game pretty late. I thought he got his revenge last year when they won in EL and took the rubber match at the Big Ten Tournament. Fran seems like the kind of guy that won’t forget this and will be more than happy to dish out a return beating on Izzo if he’s ever given the chance.

Comedy is where the mind goes to tickle itself.

by Nickhawk08 on Jan 11, 2012 12:57 PM CST up reply actions  

It seems possible that the Hawks were just exhausted after the game Saturday.

I seem to recall Iowa having to do these short turn-arounds to East Lansing on more than one occasion. I know [Redacted] had to do it more than a few times. Each time, we got fire-bombed.

Getting our asses kicked in EL has become part of the program, really. We haven’t had many competitive games there over the last 15. Several close losses near the end of the Davis era (several 1, 2 and 3-point losses from 94-97). Since 1998 though, I don’t see a result closer than 7 points (oddly enough, under Lickliter; he had a 7 and an 8-point loss there).

Really, it’s been a bad 72 hours for big Iowa events – lost to both OSU’s on Saturday, the Coker news, then this dick punch in EL. Not good.

Comedy is where the mind goes to tickle itself.

by Nickhawk08 on Jan 11, 2012 12:50 PM CST reply actions  

When are the Hawkeyes

Going to field a team that isn’t gassed? We’ve watched it in football (4th qtr defense) for two years and now basketball? Although to be truthful, I certainly couldn’t play at this level. Ever.

Sure Lisa, some magical animal.

by IowaPharmer on Jan 11, 2012 10:48 PM CST up reply actions  

It's a short turn-around from playing Ohio State to having to play Michigan State in EL

I wouldn’t say they were gassed – it was simply a short turn-around against the two best teams in the league. It’s not the first time we’ve seen an Iowa team go up to EL and get pummeled, and it won’t be the last. Hell, the Brunner-Horner team in 05-06 lost there by 30. Alford’s last team, which wasn’t terrible, lost on short rest up in EL, 81-49.

Comedy is where the mind goes to tickle itself.

by Nickhawk08 on Jan 12, 2012 10:10 AM CST up reply actions  

Spartan perspective

I think last night is just the lingering effects of Lickliter. When you try and run on a team that also wants to run and is better and more talented than you, you’ll run into problems.

Fran is doing a great job though, and the series will be more competitive in a few years. I know that I actually watched the Iowa-Minnesota game last week, as well as the first half of the OSU game. There’s no way in hell I’m looking to tune into Iowa basketball a couple years ago.

Schadenfreude ist die schoenste Freude

by Seer on Jan 11, 2012 1:10 PM CST reply actions  

Definitely

We have a few players that just aren’t meant for this style of play. We want to run, but right now, against teams of OSU and MSU’s quality, we’re going to get hammered when we try to do so. They’re longer, more athletic, just better all-around.

We matchup far better with the Purdue’s and Wisconsin’s of the world right now.

Comedy is where the mind goes to tickle itself.

by Nickhawk08 on Jan 11, 2012 1:41 PM CST up reply actions  

Appreciate the perspective.

The fact that we’re all disappointed about the last two games does mean we care, and that’s certainly a refreshing change.

That said, your analysis (that MSU is simply doing what we’re trying to do and doing it way better) while true and helpful is probably also only part of the story. MSU also shot way above average (even given that their looks were ridiculously open from 3). Iowa made tons of tactical errors that we didn’t seem to make last week. Any one of our various problems would have been enough to cause the loss. The fact that they all occurred together turned a loss into a blowout.

by The Final Gun on Jan 11, 2012 1:42 PM CST up reply actions  

It definitely seemed odd

to me when I saw so many guys collapse onto our bigs in the post. The last couple years, that might have lead to a couple turnovers. This year, they’re better at handling the ball and getting it back out.

Schadenfreude ist die schoenste Freude

by Seer on Jan 11, 2012 2:04 PM CST up reply actions  

Completely agree

I don’t ever really have more to add for HEC’s Fran-Graphs

"He lowballed us and said: 'Take it or leave it. If you don't take our offer, you are rolling the dice.' I said: 'Consider them rolled.' " - Jim "Huge Brass Balls" Delaney

by ClaybornSmash on Jan 11, 2012 1:59 PM CST up reply actions  

Izzo's just pissed because he doesn't have Lickliter to kick around anymore

Remember his self-serving blather about how wrong it was for Iowa to can the Lick?

He knows that Fran at Iowa is going to be at least a somewhat legitimate threat down the road and he wanted to send an early message.

Well I say FUCK THAT GUY. That’s what I say.

by Torbee on Jan 11, 2012 2:01 PM CST reply actions  

Didn't Lick get his first win against a ranked team by beating MSU?

If I recall, the final score was like 46-39 or something. It was probably the worst game I’d ever seen for any sport. It was Nebraska v. Iowa State bad.

by mikjones24 on Jan 11, 2012 2:06 PM CST up reply actions  

That game was appalling.

But less appalling than it would have been if we’d lost.

"I want to be a cowboy. I don't want to be a panda. Pandas are boring, stupid and boring. Bad panda!"

by RossWB on Jan 11, 2012 2:09 PM CST up reply actions  

My theory?

Izzo threw that game in the hopes it would help extend Lickliter’s tenure at Iowa, thus ensuring even more years of kicking Iowa around.

(kidding, but I’m actually sort of close to being that paranoid)

by Torbee on Jan 11, 2012 4:17 PM CST up reply actions  

Overly negative post? While performance deserved it, overall outlook does not.

Several points:
1) Despite Gatens and Cartwright, still very young team. Which, when not fab five or Kentucky caliber, will be inconsistent and repeatedly take step forward and step back. Getting too positive or too negative isn’t justified. And it WAS a quick turnaround to travel to the bowel of the big ten.

2) Toughness is often learned in B1G. MSU was taking a mug em approach to defense, and yes a quality B1G team has to learn to deal with that. That a step was taken on that road is evidenced by the effort and hustle in the last blown out 7 minutes (McCabe laying out on the floor at halfcourt for example) and Aaron’s comments after the game-something like we have to be tougher and learn if they are mugging us on d we should at least pay em back.

3) meh, this squad was never gonna beat MSU or OSU if they played well, and pretty clearly we got both their best shots. If their gonna play like shit two games in the conference, this is prolly the 2 to pick. While making positive habits etc. is the goal….Fran, you, me (and if honest the players), and everybody else knew if MSU played well we weren’t beating them. So as to the game itself, meh. They played well, they win.

4) Gatens may have become an emotional leader when he took that foul (which probably should have been called flagrant) whacking his defender off the hand check with a Karate Chop. Marble mentioned it in his interview.

5) Basabe had a pretty good second half, looks to be maturing into a more consistent competitor. Archie showing ability to meaningfully contribute as well, against some teams we really need a center to defend in the middle. Outside of Cartwright finally learning he is a senior and should play well at all times, among the best developments personnel wise we could have.

6) May and McCabe didn’t start second half, the game is serving as the event/cause for shaking up the starting lineup. Tricky topic, especially with young team, but doubt there will be any argument that changes are justified after that debacle. Seems to me that having White and Cartwright start is preferable generically. Since Fran doesn’t seem to be the kind of coach to juggle the starters on a matchup basis (which I would applaud with this team), best thing going forward is to get White and Cartwright in there.

7) Most college teams, especially young ones, most of the time show a reverse reaction to being humbled or satisfied. You lose, you are more hungry to win and play well next time out. You win, you are thinking about accomplishment rather than preparation and don’t play as well. Just the way if often goes. 2 big servings of humble pie later, you are gonna see a supreme and focused effort Saturday.

8) Fran put another sheckle in the guys I got your back bank, plus has a couple practices to get em ready for the Wolverfuckerines. Good combination.

All in all, a near perfect storm for a blowout, but set up for a near perfect storm for an upset. I predict a win, which will put them at 3-3. A month ago Fran, you, me (and if honest the players), and everyone else would have gladly taken that record.

by Sky High King on Jan 11, 2012 4:46 PM CST reply actions  

so...

cartwright – Marble – Oglesby
marble – Oglesby
gatens – May
White – McCabe
Basabe – Archie – Brommer – Olaseni

maybe. switch white and basabe? okay, hmmm.I’m definitely even more excited for next year than I was at the beginning of the season.

Gessell – Clemmons
Marble – Oglesby – Ingram
Basabe – May
White – McCabe – Meyer
Woodbury – Olaseni

Maybe that’s not ideal for Basabe, but I think you still need him on the floor more than May, and I don’t want to pull White’s rebounding prowess away from the basket. then again, I believe offensive designations are fairly fluid, so Basabe could still operate down low, and he mightget matched up to SF’s on the block which would likely be great.
Oh, and May is the only senior? They might still “only” win 15-19 games next year (w/o looking at the schedule), but that team is pushing 23-25 the next year.

meh

by tyger1147 on Jan 11, 2012 10:02 PM CST up reply actions  

Yeah I would probably have to play Basabe and White switched

because White has some ball handling ability and Basabe does not. However I suppose he could practice that in the offseason to get better.

by clay-born to party on Jan 12, 2012 8:12 AM CST up reply actions  

Yup: from today's presser:

Q. You threw out a different lineup to start the second half just to get a spark offensively. Are you going to change that to open this game, or is it going to be what it was?

COACH McCAFFERY: Still haven’t decided that. There is a good likelihood there will be a change, but I haven’t discussed it with any of our players yet. So before I would say anything to anybody else, I also haven’t definitively decided if we’re going to do it, but I’ll tell everybody first.

Q. What factors will go into the decision making?

COACH McCAFFERY: The performances recently. Who is playing well. What team I think has the best chance to win. Nothing more than that.

by Sky High King on Jan 12, 2012 5:00 PM CST up reply actions  

Great quote from Fran today re: the chair slam

Had his presser today in preparation for the Michigan game, and here’s what he said:

No, not at all. If anybody thinks I’m going to sit there with my hands crossed when we’re down by 40, they got the wrong guy, okay. I was brought in here to change the culture. I’m going to coach with passion, and my players know that. They also know I’m going to fight for them.

I love that guy. The anti-Alford rolled together with the anti-Lickliter.

Comedy is where the mind goes to tickle itself.

by Nickhawk08 on Jan 12, 2012 4:50 PM CST reply actions   2 recs

Also confirmed that he wasn't mad at refs- slammed chair was about players

He was basically calling them pussies during the time out. If they are mugging you, FIGHT THE FUCK BACK!
Learning curve boys, and this is one teacher that don’t grade on a scale.

by Sky High King on Jan 12, 2012 4:58 PM CST up reply actions  

Shit yes.

Love this guy. No apologies, no regrets, no backing down.


"WELCOME TA EARFF!"

by Bucketochicken on Jan 12, 2012 5:10 PM CST up reply actions  

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