Merry Steelemas: Phil Steele's Predictions For Iowa In 2011
by RossWB on Jun 6, 2011 9:30 PM CDT
in Iowa Hawkeyes Football
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Cover Watch: The upper Midwest version features Jared Crick (Nebraska DT), Denard Robinson (Michigan QB), Nathan Williams (Ohio State LB), and Montee Ball (Wisconsin RB). Well, three out of those four make sense.
Record/Finish: 3rd place, Legends division
Projected Bowl: Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas (vs. Kansas State)
All-Americans
RIley Reiff, OT, 3rd team
Marvin McNutt, WR, 4th taem
All-Big Ten
Riley Reiff, OT, 1st team
Marvin McNutt, WR, 1st team
Shaun Prater, CB, 1st team
Broderick Binns, DE, 2nd team
James Morris, LB, 2nd team
Micah Hyde, S, 2nd team
Marcus Coker, RB, 3rd team
Nolan MacMillan, OG, 3rd team
Mike Daniels, DT, 3rd team
Tyler Nielsen, LB, 4th team
Recruiting
Steele rated Iowa's class 28th best in the nation and 5th best in the Big Ten (behind Ohio State, Nebraska, Michigan, Penn State). There were also multiple Iowa recruits among his Top 500 Freshmen, including Rodney Coe (RB #17), Mika'il McCall (RB #54), Ray Hamilton (TE #14), Jordan Walsh (OL #20), Austin Blythe (OL #35), Darian Cooper (DL #48), Quinton Alston (LB #49), Nico Law (DB #76), and Dan Heiar (JC #45).
Bowl Projections:
Rose -- Nebraska v. Oregon
Capital One -- Ohio State v. Georgia
Outback -- Wisconsin v. South Carolina
Insight -- Penn State v. Missouri
Gator -- Michigan State v. Florida
Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas -- Iowa v. Kansas State
TicketCity -- Illinois v. Houston
Pizza Pizza -- Michigan v. Toledo
(other) Kraft Fight Hunger -- Northwestern v. California
Odds and Ends:
If you're looking for reasons why Iowa could be better in 2011, Steele has a few. Iowa had a net close losses (games decided by a touchdown or less) of -3 (2 close wins vs. 5 close losses); per Steele's data, 81.3% of teams that had a net close losses total of -3 finished with a record that was the same or better the next year.
But if you're looking for reasons why Iowa might struggle in 2011, Steele has a few of those, too. Iowa had a defensive YPP (yards allowed per point) total of 19.53 in 2010; almost three-quarters of teams who had a defensive YPP total like that had a record the next year that was the same or weaker. Iowa also had a very positive turnover margin (+13), which often means some backsliding the next season (three-fourths of teams with with turnover margins greater than +10 had a record that was the same or weaker the next season). A more concerning stat might be Iowa's poor placement on Phil's experience chart. They rate 118th in the NCAA, sit at the bottom of the Big Ten in total experience points (40.8; next lowest is Indiana at 51.1), percentage of lettermen returning (57.6%), percentage of 2010 yards returning (25%), have the second lowest percentage of 2010 tackles returning (47%), and have the third-lowest total of returning offensive line starts (59).
Still, Steele thinks they can match last year's 8-win total, assuming that they'll have better luck in close games this year and because it's a program that "consistently overachieves when expectations are low."
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Phil Steele's a big Wavves fan.
He gets confused sometimes. We all remember when he kept referring to our experienced safeties last year as Tyler Sash and Jonny Greenwood.
"They're not people, James Ingram. They're Jimmy Buffett fans."
Yay Steelemas!
Despite the temperature, football is getting near.
It never gets to be easy.
Why the fuck doesn't it ever get to be easy?
At least he didn’t call him Colin greenwood, although I guess that wouldn’t be so bad either.
by GreatBarrierReiff on Jun 6, 2011 10:01 PM CDT via mobile reply actions
Nebraska is not going to the Rose Bowl
And I think 8 wins is about right unless Vdnbrg exceeds expectations greatly. I agree that no way our turnover margin is +13 again. Maybe 1/2 that.
"I wish you luck with a capital 'F'" - The Real Elvis.
I really hope your right.
Nebraska needs to have their ass handed to them in the first year. Not necessarily majorly but just be a 7 or 8 win team and 3rd or 4th in whatever L division we are in. Otherwise they will be insufferable for the rest of all time.
I am pretty confident they will lose one of their usual Bo Pellini
meltdown games to a .500 (ala the Paul Rhoads “I love you man” game). They will also lose at Wisconsin and at either Penn State or Michigan and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them lose to Ohio State.
They are going to suffer because they run their QB. Dumb offense in this league.
"I wish you luck with a capital 'F'" - The Real Elvis.
What are you talking about??
They are going to suffer because they run their QB. Dumb offense in this league.
This type of offense allowed the Wolverines to have their QB run for 905 yards and pass for another 1008 in their first 5 games in 2010 and look absolutely unstoppaboh wait… yeah. That WAS before the B1G season started*. Then Denard was roughed up routinely, they lost 5 of 7 B1G games, coach was begging for his job, etc. Yeah, I suppose it might not work too well unless your backup is very good. Still, they did manage to beat a 7-6 Zooker team and OMHR, something that IOWA couldn’t manage to do**.
‘*Indiana doesn’t count as I’m still mentally relegating them to the MAC…
‘**It was actually impossible to win because we didn’t play either of them.
by KinnickNorthHawk on Jun 7, 2011 9:02 AM CDT up reply actions
Typical Lamestream media bias....
As we all know, Hawkeye Football will form the basis of human society. You see, eventually, Hawkeye Football will help put an end to war & poverty. It will align the planets and bring them into universal harmony, allowing meaningful contact with all forms of life, from extra-terrestrial beings to common household pets……and……..
Its excellent for drinking.
Fuck yeah.
Hawks for the win and falafels for the vagina
by DoYouLoveHawksorHate'Merica? on Jun 6, 2011 11:34 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
Screw that huggy kissy stuff.
World Domination I say.
It's so sad how a family can be torn apart by something as simple as a pack of wild dogs.
by FiveSecondRuleChef on Jun 7, 2011 5:16 AM CDT up reply actions
I didn't vote for im!
Strange women lying in ponds, distributing swords is no basis for government.
"Pockets full of weed, chewing tobacco, wrapping papers and dental dams"
--HFMR Running the Beermile (tfj @ HawkeyeRecon)
by Eyeheartfreedumb on Jun 7, 2011 9:42 AM CDT up reply actions
Come and see the violence inherent in the system!
Help! Help! I’m being repressed!
"I shoot, I score. He shoots, I score." - Dan Gable
by ClaybornSmash on Jun 7, 2011 11:28 AM CDT up reply actions
You can't expect to yeild supreme executive power
just because some watery tart threw a sword at you.
If I went around saying I was a emperor just because some moistened bint lobbed a scimitar at me, they’d put me away.
"Pockets full of weed, chewing tobacco, wrapping papers and dental dams"
--HFMR Running the Beermile (tfj @ HawkeyeRecon)
by Eyeheartfreedumb on Jun 7, 2011 12:15 PM CDT up reply actions
this is my favorite part
I spent half my life's earnings on wine, women & song. The other half I wasted.
by therealCatnuts on Jun 7, 2011 12:32 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Party on, dude!
It never gets to be easy.
Why the fuck doesn't it ever get to be easy?
by chitownhawkeye on Jun 7, 2011 5:05 PM CDT up reply actions
I wonder if Tresselgate will hurt OSU's chances for a BCS at large if they lose the B1G title game.
Would pollsters or bowl officials take it out on them during the season? I kind of doubt bowl officials would, because all that matters to them is $$$$$$$$$
by DJK's bongwater on Jun 7, 2011 5:15 AM CDT via mobile reply actions
That's of course assuming they're even allowed to go to a bowl game
by Captain n Diet Coker on Jun 7, 2011 8:08 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Can they get there...
Missing key players for, what, 6 games?
Ma'am, you're dealing here with a fully qualified male strumpet. I service the entire Quad Cities area: Moline, Rock Island, Davenport and Bettendorf. Why don't you give it a whirl? What have you got to lose? - Fred Garvin, Male Prostitute
Unless the suspensions are lengthened or guys end up not coming back at all...
right now the only games they would miss against decent games are a road game with Miami and a home game with Michigan State. The other games are a home game with Colorado and a pair of games against MACrifices.
"I want to be a cowboy. I don't want to be a panda. Pandas are boring, stupid and boring. Bad panda!"
Is Pelini mature enough to handle two things?
Refs that give the breaks to the old school big ten teams?
Realizing that his team is not physical enough yet?
I think he’s something of a flake, and I’m thinking it will be entertaining watching him interact with his new world.
We play tackle football, most of the time.
Yeah, he might not own the right temperament. He's like Dantonio's little snotty brother.
…and that team leaves behind a psychological edge built up over years of dominance with some teams. The Big 8 is way in the rearview mirror now. There is no Kansas to kick around anymore. Minnesota is going to be jacked to play them, will the Cornstalks they be jacked in return? Maybe not. Especially if their bowl game last year is any indication. They barely showed up against Washington after being passed over for the Insight Bowl. That was revealing to me. Sure, it’s no fun to play the same team twice but they got pounded in the trenches. That is about attitude.
I can’t wait to watch them perform against the B1G. The media acts like they are going to just walk in the front door and own the place.
"I wish you luck with a capital 'F'" - The Real Elvis.
if there was ever a year to walk in and own the place this is it though
and I really hope it doesn’t happen. I don’t think for a second that they are going to win every year or even every other but if they win on their first one it would be terrible.
He sired a baseball team... An orchestra, if you count the bastards!
by SaturdayMorningKegStanzis on Jun 7, 2011 11:57 AM CDT up reply actions
Good point...this year is not last year's Big Ten
"I wish you luck with a capital 'F'" - The Real Elvis.
The 'skers will challenge for the championship this year, but I don't think they'll win it.
They lost some studs in the draft, and T-Magic will not make it through the season as the CornMen’s starting QB, either due to injury or ineffective play. I just don’t think he’s fast enough, durable enough, or good enough as a passer. A backup QB transferred. So that leaves the position thinner. Plus, Nebby’s stud QB recruit Bubba “Don’t Call Me Clarice” Starling got drafted 5th overall by his hometown MLB club, the KC Royals. You would think that they’d be willing to throw enough $$ at him to get him to sign and forget about football if they took him that high. That multi-million dollar signing bonus has to be tempting.
The ‘skers will be stout on D, but their offense will continue to be a problem in 2011. Even so, their record will be very good since the conference will be a little down this year. OSU is in turmoil. Michigan is in a transition year. Wisconsin lost some stud OL’s, a stud TE and DE, their senior QB, and Clay (free agent battering ram). Minnesota has been down AND they’re in a transition year. Northwestern is JUST Northwestern. PSU was a little down last year and figures to be again this year. Not many legit challengers to Nebby.
Which is why either Herky or Sparty will stop Herbie’s Run for the Roses.
We may find out that Pelini makes a much better DC than he does HC, but you have to give him credit for pulling the CornMen back from the mediocrity of the Callahan years.
I bought the mag this morning,
and will read it later today.
We will become more intensity!!! --What Reading Rambler thinks Tom Brands should do.
annoying
I find it annoying how he tries to fill space and toot his own horn talking about seasons multiple years ago. Obviously covering every D-1 team is going to force you to be a bit thin in some areas but come on. Lotta stats but not a lot of substance.
impossible is nothing
True,
but I kind of like to see what Iowa (or other schools) have done over the last few years without going to the Internetz.
What I find slightly difficult is learning his abbreviations that he has for his stats, etc.
We will become more intensity!!! --What Reading Rambler thinks Tom Brands should do.
by WaterlooChazz on Jun 7, 2011 11:41 AM CDT up reply actions
So he's the Nebraska of preview mags?
"Pockets full of weed, chewing tobacco, wrapping papers and dental dams"
--HFMR Running the Beermile (tfj @ HawkeyeRecon)
by Eyeheartfreedumb on Jun 7, 2011 12:16 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Just some random thoughts
1. When Iowa has loads of talent we do not perform so well( last year as an example)
2. When Iowa is not picked to do well they seem to out perform
3. Iowa is picked 3rd in the Legends division ( who is in here again and how many new coaches)
4. Iowa has JFNWU at home where in years past we have laid some ass whooping on them
5. With all this in mind I am going way way out on a limb and say 10-2 and a New Year’s Day Bowl
6. I have been wrong before
Ummm.
jNW has won 3 of the last 4 in Iowa City. So your fourth thought appears to be a bit misleading.
by The Mexican't on Jun 7, 2011 9:34 PM CDT up reply actions
Iowa has a few lingering huge problemos.
1. We no longer have a strength and conditioning advantage, like we did in 2002-2004. Other coaches take notes and react.
2. We are an open book exam: all the questions have already been asked and answered. (Do you think DC’s don’t know yet how to key off the fullback?) That means, if you run the same plays and same D for 12 consecutive years, guess what? The other guys just have to teach the test, and don’t even need this year’s film (or even, film from 2006).
3. Zone blocking was a Ferentz innovation for the Big Ten. It’s now something like the Wing-T, in regard to its relationship with the foreign (to Iowa) concept of “innovation.”
I don’t know about this. Usually, success in sports is contingent on a dedication to constant adjustment. We disdain it.
We play tackle football, most of the time.
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