What do we expect?
by Hawkaloogie on Dec 1, 2011 8:21 AM CST
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PrintLet me preface this by saying that I think this football season has been shitty. I share the same frustrations as many of you. I find our style of play to be predictable and beyond stale and I think some changes, short of firing Ferentz, need to be made. However, when perusing the interwebs yesterday I came across this tweet from Hawkeye blogger Joe Larsen:
Those records add up to a 34-26 mark. My first problem is obviously the glaring omission of the 11-2 2009 season. Leaving that out turns this into a "you can make statistics say whatever you want" scenario, but I digress. My question isn't so much about the tweet itself, but rather, getting to the bottom of what Hawkeye fans expect. You see, the 34-26 record that is spelled out in the tweet totals a winning percentage of .567. In the Kirk Ferentz era Iowa is 96-65, good for a winning percentage of .596. So, it would seem that the somewhat tainted sample set of "disappointing" seasons is not that far from the average. So this begs the question, what do we expect?
At a program like Iowa, with the financial means and fan base that we have, we should literally be able to just show up and have a 6-6 season (3-4 non conference wins, 2-3 Big Ten wins), so a 7-5 season is scraping the bottom of the barrel. In my opinion, if Iowa isn't in the 8-10 win range and a consistent presence in the top 25 then the season is not a success. What do you think?
Unless otherwise expressly indicated by BHGP editors, this FanPost is strictly the viewpoint of the author and is not endorsed by BHGP in any way.
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I think you hit the nail on the head here.
I think expectations are a strange thing to consider for football teams. We are supremely disappointed this year with our 7-5 season when the boys from Ames would absolutely love to see that seventh win. If we had beat Nebraska and they were 8-4 there would be some serious talk about Pelini keeping his job. I think after 07 a 5-7 season if it were to occur would likely end Kirk’s tenure here.
But as far as win totals go I don’t really know what to expect from Iowa. I agree that in our worse year we should be able to sleep walk to an 6 win season. Especially since the non-con schedules are getting watered down from here on out. But Kirk’s track record in the B1G has me stumped. With 09 being the exception we’ve had one winning record in the B1G in the last 5 years (5-3 in 08). I commented last night that I thought that year was a large success and a fun team to watch despite only getting to 8-4 (granted one of those was an upset of #3 PSU). The thing that gets me is that we consider ourselves to be an upper half B1G team but when it comes to our record we are simple middling. A lot of this can be attributed to losing games to teams that we shouldn’t. Which is an argument that has already been made ad nauseum….
If you offered me 8-4 every year, I may bite on that proposal.
I can maybe accept 6-6 in years when the talent level is low due to graduation, etc.
But 7-5 in years when the team is stocked with future NFL draftees? Uninspired play in rivalry games and games against inferior talent and coaches? I can’t stand that.
I am not crazy to hope for 2002-2005 all the time. Three good years of 9 to 10 win seasons, with a 7 win season sprinkled in on occasion to keep the boys hungry.
Are Ferentz’ best years behind him already?
You got no fear of the underdog; That's why you will not survive!
by YouCanPutYourEddsInIt on Dec 1, 2011 10:04 AM CST reply actions
It's not just the records
it’s how we got there. Upsets happen, fine. But we’ve been on the wrong end of those a few too many times. Then when we get the big stage, too many times we just get our asses kicked.
I think 8-10 wins with a regular presence in the top 25, or at least getting votes, is what we should expect. 7-5 should be an exception and 6-6 should be a combo of rebuilding and bad luck.
I’ll say it again, as long as KF is head coach, we’re not getting to Pasadena. I’ll be shocked if we get to Indy.
"If you need a rah-rah speech at halftime, you’re playing the wrong sport." - Pat Angerer
I don't think we can just show up and do better than 7 wins. But, I will say that given the amount of first rate
NFL worthy talent we’ve had over this time period, this is about the worst record that I think could have been squeezed out of this personnel group. So if the question is, are we fulfilling our potential? I would answer that, for the most part, no. I think the 2009 group overachieved a bit. A bit. It wasn’t on the level of what Michigan accomplished this year though. That group, as a group, is no better than Iowa and that was proven on the field.
"I wish you luck with a capital 'F'" - The Real Elvis.
"Just show up and be 6-6"
That’s a laugably largesse baseline to use. While we’re not as fortunate as some other schools with some of the disadvantages we have (Nebraska and Boise are the ones most of note), we are doing far better than what “just showing up” gets you in our small-population, small-market state split further in half with another BCS school and nearly zero recruiting base. Just showing up gets you more like 3-9 with 1 ore or more of those wins against an FCS bodybag, as we see with Minnesota, Indiana, Purdue, and a myriad of non-powerhouse programs across the country.
I’m also not happy with a 6-6 or even 7-5 year, but let’s not pretend that’s the worst it could get.
I spent half my life's earnings on wine, women & song. The other half I wasted.
Agreed
A good way to measure “where” Iowa should be and what we should expect, at least compared to the Big Ten, is to look at other sports.
And in other sports, we are consistently in the bottom of the Big Ten (with a few exceptions: Wrestling).
We don’t have the admission size, market size, money, I-club, academic prowess, to be considered top tier in the Big Ten. Nor do you want to be…do you really think Ohio State fans are happy expecting a title every year and never getting it?
by TangerinePony on Dec 2, 2011 11:54 AM CST up reply actions
We're only Iowa, so let's just be happy that we don't suck
I don’t know if you meant it that way, but that’s the way your comment comes across. And I HATE that attitude. It’s an excuse leads to mediocrity. I think that Ferentz thinks this way to an extent to be honest, and it bugs me. I want a coach who does not accept that there is any kind of limit to how well his team can perform. Only then will Iowa have a chance to become, maybe not elite like Texas or fOSU, but that next level down where we’re always sort of “in the hunt”, which is where I think Iowa Football has the resources to reside.
As for winning as much as Ohio State and it leading to unrealistic expectations, I’ll just quote Dan Gable, “Winning never gets old”.
Also, you can’t compare football and basketball to non-revenue sports. Nobody is pulling strings to get a great swimmer in and the budgets are such that they can’t just fly down to Florida a few times to recruit a volleyball player.
"If you need a rah-rah speech at halftime, you’re playing the wrong sport." - Pat Angerer
Not exactly what he was saying.
What he’s saying is that it is ridiculous to think that we go 6-6 with just the talent we have every year. There is no built in reason why we should be in the middle of the Big Ten. We have the second smallest enrollment. We’re not a historic power (though we’ve had good years). There is no reason why we should just waltz into the Big Ten and expect 6-6. We’re just not that school. I love Iowa. I love Iowa City. Best place in the world, IMO and the only place that I’d consider leaving my current job for. But that’s not what we are. And he’s right that the basketball team proves it. We tried to go for the ‘next level’ and we haven’t recovered since.
by DisplacedHawkeye82 on Dec 3, 2011 5:28 PM CST up reply actions
I do have a bad attitude
I’ve been burned by Iowa too many times. There was a time, when I was such a young and innocent boy, that I took solace in the fact, that, unlike Iowa football, which went 1-10 in 1999, the Iowa basketball program would never fall that far. Yet, dear Lord, we lost to Campbell. Campbell? CAMPBELL!?!?! Did we just lose to the workers of a Soup Company? No, we didn’t. But we would have.
So, in my old age (late 20s), all I ask for in any Iowa sport is a mediocre showing.
Completely contrasting everything I’ve said, I just learned that Iowa’s athletic revenue for 2001-2010 ranked 17th in the nation. So maybe we should be better.
by TangerinePony on Dec 15, 2011 12:34 PM CST up reply actions
Except that the football team does have the money and the fan base that the other sports don't have.
And yes, I think they’re happier than Iowa is of expecting to be 3rd and never getting it.
meh
Because
we have results better than the other sports (not in the bottom). With the exception, again, of wrestling which does pretty well compared to every other wrestling program in the country.
Chicken before the egg.
by DisplacedHawkeye82 on Dec 3, 2011 5:30 PM CST up reply actions
There have been several times when Iowa basketball has been the toughest ticket in town.
Including during the time when we decided not to renew Tom Davis’ contract.
It may not seem like it right now, but Iowa City is every bit as much of a basketball town as it is a football town.
"It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood..." - Teddy Roosevelt
Yes indeed
Fans WANT to support Hawkeye basketball & they will once they more fully trust the product on the floor.
The University of Iowa: the best 6 years of my life. My parents are very proud.
by HawkeyeGirleye on Dec 5, 2011 10:34 PM CST up reply actions
Bam!
Iowa City, despite the last ten years, is still a basketball town!
by TangerinePony on Dec 15, 2011 12:22 PM CST up reply actions
so just showing up gets you losing to Iowa State and winless in the B1G.
Iowa should never, ever be that bad with even a semi-competent coach. Our expectations should be much higher than that.
Yeah, I can see why you don’t have higher expectations for the team. Getting to three wins is beating 2 non-BCS opponents and a Div 1-AA team. They aren’t THAT. They should be the top dog in the state, even if they have to “split” the recruits, they have enough history and gameday atmosphere over Iowa State that they shouldn’t (and won’t) ever lose the recruiting rankings between the two.
With the money Iowa has and the rabid fan base, and the okay recruiting base (“zero” is misleading on your own there, guy), they should never, ever be consistently worse than Iowa State, Minnesota, or Indiana. I guess that’s the difference. You expect Iowa to be a bottom-tier team. Others expect better.
meh
I would agree that a "baseline" for Iowa...
…is somewhere in the 7 to 8 win range. But, if that’s the baseline, for every season that Iowa is below and wins 6, there should be a season where they win 9 or 10. For seven years now Iowa has spent far more seasons at or below their baseline than above. That’s what has so much of the fanbase so alarmed. This thing just isn’t trending the right way and Iowa is dropping games every season to (on paper) inferior teams, maybe quite a bit inferior if you use future NFL players as a measuring stick. It’s incredibly frustrating and the philosophy and schemes employed by this coaching staff seemingly play right into the phenomenon.
I’d say, right now, this is the 7th best program in the league. Sparty has passed Iowa and Bucky has left Iowa on another planet. I hope Iowa has another major resurgence as recent recuriting classes and mature and (hopefully) stick around, but, I can’t say I have the optimism I did a few years ago of said resurgence taking place.
Because the Gulfstream 5 has neither the airspeed nor the specs to adequately describe how fly I feel.
Sparty has passed Iowa?
Just because they beat us this year? We slaughtered them last year and who can forget “7 got 6” in 2009? Come on now. Take a deep breath and let some rational thinking settle in. Sparty had a great year with a veteran quarterback (and some, ahem, less than honorable game tactics), but let’s not permanently launch them ahead of us m’kay? Love you long time.
"I mean, are they going to poop their pants or are they going to get tough?" ~Tom Brands
They're ahead of us at the moment... we'll see how long it lasts.
WINS OVER LAST 5 SEASONS
Iowa: 6, 9, 11, 8, 7 (total: 41)
MSU: 10, 11, 6, 9, 7 (total: 43)
Wisco: 10, 11, 10, 7, 9 (total: 47)
Wisco has done a pretty good job of avoiding those 6-7 win valleys that keep tripping up Iowa. Time will tell with Sparty.
"I want to be a cowboy. I don't want to be a panda. Pandas are boring, stupid and boring. Bad panda!"
P.S. I think our series with Bucky is 42-43 right now. Dominance this is not.
On Iowa. Go Hawks.
"I mean, are they going to poop their pants or are they going to get tough?" ~Tom Brands
I thought after last season's win, they jumped ahead one. Thanks for the clarification.
I work in Georgetown. I hate it. Traffic. Gah!
"I mean, are they going to poop their pants or are they going to get tough?" ~Tom Brands
Hold on now.
Don’t lump me in with the crazies. I only honk and cuss at them.
Plus, no Metro to G’town. Few options. Bus isn’t one of them.
Go Hawks.
"I mean, are they going to poop their pants or are they going to get tough?" ~Tom Brands
Oh, I'm not lumping you in with crazies
Just that trying to drive in DC can best be described as “nigtmarish”.
And the story of why Georgetown doesn’t have it’s own Metro stop is a long and sordid one.
I ate the blue ones ... they taste like burning.
piqued
>> the story of why Georgetown doesn’t have it’s own Metro stop is a long and sordid one
I’ve got time.
Georgetown: Keeping Out the Riffraff.
Or so the legend goes.
"I mean, are they going to poop their pants or are they going to get tough?" ~Tom Brands
There is another, probably more accurate, word for "riffraff"
that the good denizens of Georgetown were trying to keep out
I ate the blue ones ... they taste like burning.
These things go in cycles for sure.
But, right now, if you consider conference games the measuring stick, Sparty has a pair of 7-1 campaigns and a 6-2 in the last four years. Wisco is coming off back to back 7-1 seasons. Iowa has one 6-2 season in the last 7, everything else is 3 conference losses or more. D’antonio, annoying as he may be, is building a reputation for some damn stout defense and MSU doesn’t lose to the Minnesotas of the world. Bucky is knocking on the door of elite the way Iowa appeared to be in 2004. We’ll see if they break it down or not. But if you are ranking conference programs today, I’ve got Iowa 7th.
Because the Gulfstream 5 has neither the airspeed nor the specs to adequately describe how fly I feel.
Not that I don't get upset with our W-L record...
But I think it’s also important to take into consideration how many of those losses since 2005 were by less than a touchdown. I don’t know the exact number, but I know its quite a few. I know they are still losses, but a 7-5 year where all five losses were by a combined 20 points or so is really not too shabby.
Or it's an indictment of Iowa's inability to win close games.
Either way, it’s kind of a bullshit stat, and one whose streak I’m glad finally died this season. It’s like saying, “I barf on five-twelfths of all my dates’ faces right as we lean in to kiss. But it’s not so bad because it’s not super chunky gross barf!”
"Pursue happiness... with diligence."
by Bucketochicken on Dec 2, 2011 8:19 AM CST up reply actions
A moral victory is a loss
"If you need a rah-rah speech at halftime, you’re playing the wrong sport." - Pat Angerer
'Scratch where it itches'
Damn I love that man
The University of Iowa: the best 6 years of my life. My parents are very proud.
by HawkeyeGirleye on Dec 2, 2011 12:05 PM CST up reply actions
My expectations.
I want to get to a decent bowl game and play well in the bowl. I want to be competitive in the games I watch and not blown out. I want to flip on the game and know that we have a chance to win. And we almost always do. And I think people undervalue that.
by DisplacedHawkeye82 on Dec 3, 2011 5:35 PM CST reply actions
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