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BlogpLOL Week One: The 74-Part Totem Pole

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Everyone knows virtually nothing after week one.  For most people, this isn't a problem.  For us, it's a metaphysical conundrum of the highest order.

For those of you new to the BHGPoll, we play with fire for the first couple of weeks.  When you throw out all expectations -- even those of the teams playing the teams you are ranking -- you're left with very little upon which to base a ballot.  Everyone in the poll has the same strength of schedule, because 74 teams are 1-0 and every opponent of those 74 is 0-1.  Everyone has the same points for wins and losses, save for the few road wins and neutral site games to come out of Labor Day weekend.

And so the only source of any variation in the Week One BlogpLOL is point differential, catapulting Oregon to the top of the charts with a 72-point beatdown of New Mexico (Oregon avoids the I-AA adjustement, to boot).  There's a giant gulf between the Ducks and everyone else, though Georgia and Oklahoma State were impressive in FBS beatdowns.  There are only nine teams from our preseason top 25 who are here, and only Auburn retained its prior position (and somewhat amazingly, at that).  This ballot will almost surely win Mr. Manic Depressive if it is not outright spiked (again).  And we're fine with that.  At the end of the day, it's about a theory, that the ridiculous polls that determine the champion of our preferred sport should be as free of bias, both positive and negative, as possible.  The only way to combat the bias is to cut off its head by throwing out the preseason rankings from day one.  In the beginning, you get unmitigated chaos.  In the end, you get something approximating truth.


As for the games, week one produced remarkably little in the way of chaos.  Kansas and Ole Miss improbably lost to I-AA opposition, but neither team had the on-field talent to truly compete in what are, by any measure, two of the three toughest conferences in football.  Their parallel downfalls, while comedic at the hands of teams like Jacksonville State, were probably inevitable.

Of the sixteen teams that dropped out of the poll this week, some were wholly unimpressive in victory (Oklahoma, Texas), some ran into opposition far stiffer than the typical week one sacrificial lamb fodder (TCU, Boise, LSU), some outright lost (Virginia Tech, North Carolina, MTSU, Washington), and some just weren't impressive enough against thoroughly overmatched opposition (Iowa, Penn State, USC).  It means little to nothing at this point; next week will cut down another third of the undefeateds, if not more, and the process of data accumulation and pack thinning continues unabated until week four, when an infusion of one-loss teams will topple the totem pole again.  It's the circle of life, and it moves us all.

This week's Big BlogpLOL Game of the Week is #1 Oregon at #10 Tennessee in a late Saturday kickoff that will drop one team out of the poll.  #2 Georgia travels to #19 South Carolina, which leaves the door open for Oklahoma State to leapfrog into the top 2 should the Cowboys properly dispatch of the Troy Trojans of Troy.  Other top 25 matchups include #5 Mississippi State hosting #20 Auburn, #6 Nebraska hosting #17 Idaho, and #8 Ohio State welcoming #14 Miami into the Horseshoe.  

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this. He’s doing basically the same thing, although I like his stats better than your score differential. Results are similar, though.

by KevinHD on Sep 7, 2010 3:13 PM CDT reply actions  

Ooh, Tommy likey

If it didn’t completely factor out I-AA (c’mon, Youngstown is better than New Mexico, right?) I’d be totally on board. Same top 8, different order, but that Florida spot worries me.

Before you respond, let me remind you: Brian Cook called me smug, which makes me the Obama of smugness. I'm basically Smugbama.

by Patrick Vint on Sep 7, 2010 3:16 PM CDT up reply actions  

Can't wait to see the roundup of Week 1 in the BlogpLOL on sbnation

Always funny to see the comments about the rationale differences (and how doing polls in this way makes blogs even less respected). We’re a sure lock for the award of the blog that is hardest on our own team (can’t remember the name).

"I shoot, I score. He shoots, I score." - Dan Gable

by ClaybornSmash on Sep 7, 2010 3:31 PM CDT reply actions  

WHAT!?

Maybe you didn’t get the memo, but by now you should have declared the rest of the season moot, and given the National Championship to Boise State!

(I do understand the BlogpLOL, I’m just joking.)

by Eyeheartfreedumb on Sep 7, 2010 3:51 PM CDT reply actions  

While we are on the topic of Boise State (even though you were joking)

Though they clearly have a quarterback who was born to win close games in the 4th quarter (dude has ice in his veins), I saw endless, endless penalties last night by a supposedly veteran Boise State squad. While I do not have the wisdom, much less the forest-sized eyebrows of Kirk Herbstreit, I did not see a team with the self-control and discipline needed to beat a potential number one team.

First game jitters? Maybe. I guess with the toughest opponent of their season already gone, I don’t know that we will get to see another truly difficult test of their skill till bowl season.

by Bridgeloan on Sep 7, 2010 4:09 PM CDT up reply actions  

I can't imagine how good their QB might be after he hits puberty.

"I want to be a cowboy. I don't want to be a panda. Pandas are boring, stupid and boring. Bad panda!"

by RossWB on Sep 7, 2010 4:27 PM CDT up reply actions  

Who is Boise State's QB?

Are you talking about the guy that looks like Jon Heder?

A Voice From Kinnick - A Hawkeye Blog

by mikjones24 on Sep 7, 2010 6:19 PM CDT up reply actions  

Heder...

…with a mouthful of teeth like Matt Dillon from Something About Mary.

by Eyeheartfreedumb on Sep 8, 2010 8:14 AM CDT up reply actions  

Seriously, though...

What’s the deal with Herbstreit’s eyebrows? They give me the creeps.

"An out of context quote to support my world view." -Some Dead Guy

by Scumdog0331 on Sep 8, 2010 9:39 AM CDT up reply actions  

By the way, my avatar says...

…“DID ANYONE SEE ME LAST NIGHT?” [Dok, dok, dok, dok….]

by Eyeheartfreedumb on Sep 7, 2010 3:53 PM CDT reply actions  

Did your avatar see me?

[Dok, dok, dok, dok….]

Bloggin' at joepasdoghouse.com

by Cairo on Sep 7, 2010 4:24 PM CDT up reply actions  

I "see" what you did there.

Well played.
[And thank you for remembering the greatest thing to come out of that shitty bowl game.]

by Eyeheartfreedumb on Sep 8, 2010 8:39 AM CDT up reply actions  

"Mr. Manic Depressive"

i find this award to be misleading in name, or at least when applied to the above submitted poll. manic depressives are either incredibly interesting or dull.

your poll is always interesting, and at least the most honest.

way to stick it to the man.

Eat what the monkey eats, then eat the monkey. -U.S. Navy survival guidance

by psudrozz on Sep 7, 2010 4:35 PM CDT reply actions  

And will, as PV points out

be promptly spiked this week.

It’s an honor, really.

It never gets to be easy

by chitownhawkeye on Sep 7, 2010 4:42 PM CDT up reply actions  

Manic makes sense

Depressive may not, but just pointing that out. Sorry to nitpick, but the wife is a psych nurse at a highly, highly respected hospital and I pretend to know what she’s talking about.

I spent half my life's earnings on wine, women & song. The other half I wasted.

by therealCatnuts on Sep 8, 2010 2:37 AM CDT up reply actions  

Obligatory:

Say what you like about the tenets of the BHGP Blogpoll ballot, dude, at least it’s an ethos.

by Yinka Double Dare on Sep 7, 2010 5:55 PM CDT reply actions  

Aitz chaim he, dude, as the HS used to say.

No self-respecting man from Iowa goes anywhere without beer

by Hayden Fry's Moustache Ride on Sep 7, 2010 6:31 PM CDT up reply actions  

No Michigan? No Notre Dame?

Are you trying to tell me this is NOT 1993 all over again?

And leaving Iowa out? Sure, we didn’t roll it up against EIU, but I can’t decide if Vint is lacking the requisite amount of SWAGGER needed for the 2010 Iowa fan, or if he just has enough SWAGGER as a general football fan/blog-writer/professional comedic podcaster.

I've sentenced boys younger than you to the gas chamber. Didn't want to do it. I felt I owed it to them.

-- Judge Smails

by WaterlooChazz on Sep 7, 2010 7:09 PM CDT reply actions  

Conventional wisdom?

Them’s fightin’ words in these here parts.

No, the Hawkeyes will be back with a vengeance, in due time. They’re merely stalking out their prey until the moment is right.

"Oh no, don't do that, don't do that. If you shoot him, you'll just make him mad." - The Waco Kid

by HawkOnRails on Sep 7, 2010 9:07 PM CDT up reply actions  

Margin of victory

Not a hallmark of Ferentz teams. Win totals are. UI will be there in subsequent weeks.

I spent half my life's earnings on wine, women & song. The other half I wasted.

by therealCatnuts on Sep 8, 2010 2:38 AM CDT up reply actions  

It's not HS lacking Swagger...

…it’s the BlogpLOL that lacks Swagger. It will regain it’s Swagger once Iowa returns to the Top 25.

by Eyeheartfreedumb on Sep 8, 2010 8:23 AM CDT up reply actions  

How much do you adjust for 1-AA?

I’ve been working on a computer ranking system that includes margin of victory, and it happens to come out with the highest team to beat a 1-AA (Florida State) at #32, partly because all 1-AAs get combined together and thus the large number of blowout losses (and the relatively low ratings even of the teams that beat them, since it’s only one game so far) puts the 1-AAs’ collective rating in the “even EMU laughs at you” range.

by SpartanDan on Sep 7, 2010 8:23 PM CDT reply actions  

Your BlogpLOL

I’m sure you meant BlogpLAWL. Anyway, as was said above, way to stick it to the man. Your ranking of Oregon would definitely apply to the “Mascot toughness/badassery” category. That Duck did like 500 pushups on Saturday.

You see what I did there? Yeeeaaaaaahhhh.

by hkobb7 on Sep 7, 2010 8:42 PM CDT reply actions  

No

He meant Blogpell-oh-ell

by PackerHawk on Sep 8, 2010 3:38 AM CDT up reply actions  

SC counted them

I believe it was truly over 500, but I can’t remember for sure. WWL sometimes makes valuable observations.

I spent half my life's earnings on wine, women & song. The other half I wasted.

by therealCatnuts on Sep 8, 2010 2:40 AM CDT reply actions  

Fark. Comment was a response to hkobb

I spent half my life's earnings on wine, women & song. The other half I wasted.

by therealCatnuts on Sep 8, 2010 2:40 AM CDT up reply actions  

Yeah

That’s what I was going off of. I sure as hell wasn’t counting.

You see what I did there? Yeeeaaaaaahhhh.

by hkobb7 on Sep 8, 2010 8:47 PM CDT up reply actions  

Anone see what Cook had to say about Week 1 in the BlogpLOL?

His hatred for BGHP methodology is only barely concealed (granted, it was a full on hate hard-on last year). Love to read about his disdain for any method that isn’t his own. Did he even notice that last year BHGP had the least difference between the to final BlogpLOLs? Isn’t that an indication that a MOV methodology might be somewhat successful by the end of the season, or is all he cares about is how the early season polls should reflect voter bias?

"I shoot, I score. He shoots, I score." - Dan Gable

by ClaybornSmash on Sep 8, 2010 3:24 PM CDT reply actions  

Cook doesn't vote in the blogpoll.

I don’t think he is all that upset about the method, it just seems like he doesn’t necessarily agree with its results this early.

by The Mexican't on Sep 8, 2010 3:58 PM CDT up reply actions  

He didn't spike it

it was more of a sigh and eye roll. That’s progress.

It never gets to be easy

by chitownhawkeye on Sep 8, 2010 5:53 PM CDT up reply actions  

There was no way he was spiking it this time

Not when that TCU nut put Fresno State (!) 4th and East Carolina (!!!) 12th.

by SpartanDan on Sep 8, 2010 9:12 PM CDT up reply actions  

He realizes the battle is pointless

HS, er, PV is going to do his thing and stick to his guns with his methodology, methodology as has been pointed out turned out to be incredibly accurate at the end of the season, so Cook will just sigh, express his disdain and move on.

I ate the blue ones ... they taste like burning.

by HoyaGoon on Sep 9, 2010 12:44 AM CDT up reply actions  

Nevermind... I found it.

Fantastic.

Going, going, going, going, going, going, going, going.... Alright, I'll stop for now.

by EnergizerHawk on Sep 8, 2010 9:51 PM CDT up reply actions  

I actually had a long conversation with Cook about this in Chicago this summer

We weren’t getting spiked. He still thinks it’s batshit insanity, but at least it’s an ethos.

Before you respond, let me remind you: Brian Cook called me smug, which makes me the Obama of smugness. I'm basically Smugbama.

by Patrick Vint on Sep 9, 2010 10:11 AM CDT up reply actions  

On behalf of the Oregon Ducks, I accept your award for the football national championship.

SEASON OVER.

"[Autzen Stadium's] steep concrete banks and closed ends turn a small but rabid crowd from WAC-sized cheering section into a horde of bees with megaphones capable of reaching 127 decibels of hatenoise." -Spencer Hall

by ProbablyMonty on Sep 8, 2010 5:05 PM CDT reply actions  

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