Pick Six Just Got Real

Looks juicy. Plus you’d instantly quadruple when it hits. Plus you get to cheer against Notre Dame.

The NW/Vandy over looks alright too.

And Vandy getting 4.5 at home against jNW.

The big money this weekend though is Virginia Tech getting points in a virtual homegame against Boise.

Edsall is a solid coach and UConn had a respectable team last year. As we all know, Michigan’s already horrible defense headed up by, ahem, Greg Robinson, lost several key contributors and should be fucking terrible.

I like UConn to send a death blow to the Rich Rod era.

Lockdown.

I see you have Illinois/Mo there but no pick for them. I’d probably choose Missouri over Illinois by 12 or more as my pick.

I think Mich St might not beat that spread.

the Illinois-Mizzu OVER. That game is traditionally a real high-scorer.

I’d also take UNLV +20.5

by 35 last year — and that was when Western didn’t have a stiff under center. 24 points is a lot to give, but I’d still take State.

ND is covering that, and covering it with ease.

unless they found an offense better than the one that put up 7 on ISU’s terrible D last year.

If I could take Eastern Illinois at +39 I would probably go all in.

There’s NO WAY NW and Vandy don’t score 46 points between them—this could be one of those games where they score 46 points EACH.

To me, that’s the surest thing.

The Purdue-ND game has too many variable, #1 of them being Brian Kelly. They might beat Purdue handily, they might get their heads on a stick. I wouldn’t touch that one.

The only other game I’d consider is Mizzou-Illinois. I can’t see the Illini keeping this one close.

But for me, the only sure thing is the NW-Vandy over.

Mizzou to cover and the over, I like UNLV getting 20.5, and I’ll be contrarian and say jNWU and Vandy won’t cover. Sometimes shootouts turn into rock fights and Vandy has that ESS EEE CEE SPEEED.

Especially when people feel passionately about both sides.

Poor HFMR is gonna be broke by the end of September.

is the pick. Vandy is bad and fielding a new coach. I know it’s trendy to pretend that just Northwestern is a lame excuse for a football team but let’s not forget that they played pretty good last year. The more influence that Fitzgerald has on that team the less susceptible to pulling a Northwestern and shitting the bed against a shitty opponent they become. This will be an easy cover.

I’ve never bet. (Well, I bet on MSU over ISU in 1979 on the spring baseball trip. And it was awful and I swore I’d never ruin another great game that way.) I think it’s because I know what I’m already addicted to, and that’s enough.

Still. What do “Price” and “Money” mean? In short, WTF does this chart mean? Please don’t explain the spread or the over-under, I got that. I do probabilistic stuff for a living, maybe I should take up another corrupt pastime.

as there are lots of sharps (big time…good gamblers) who take stock in what squares (probably everyone on this page) think about a game and then Costanza it and just bet the opposite.

For instance…I have always heard that on big games you almost always want to take the over because Average Joes like me always love the over. Apparantly the more the public loves a bet the more a smart gambler should bet the opposite because let’s be honest…Vegas knows more than you and I do and they do not lose money.

However…like any gambling theory worth a shit…the contrarian method is intended to be spread over a large number of games.

Although I do like the fact that both ND and NE get extravagant lines based on name alone.