No Need To Play The Season; WhatIf Sports Did It For Us
by RossWB on Aug 25, 2010 12:00 PM CDT
in Iowa Hawkeyes Football
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Remember our good buddies at WhatIf Sports? The folks who projected Iowa to win the Orange Bowl, 80-17? Hey, don't laugh, they weren't that far off -- take away the STANZIBALL and the DJK injury, mix in some more aggressive playcalling and replace Ferentz with an absolute asshole of a head coach and... oh, who are we kidding. Georgia Tech wasn't scoring 17 on that defense.
Anyway, WhatIf Sports is back with projected final standings for the 2010 season, so let's see what their fancy computers have to say about Iowa.
That's their Absolute Record; for their Expected Record, they went with 9-3/6-2 for Iowa, presumably slotting them losses against Arizona, Penn State, and Ohio State. The difference between the Absolute Record and the Expected Record is explained here (which also has team-by-team breakdowns for the rest of the Big Ten).
Nothing there seems too unrealistic (well, aside from Minnesota's average points per game against Iowa being anything other than "0"), although Iowa having winning percentages of greater than 80% for Iowa State and Northwestern is pretty comical, given the recent results in those series. WhatIf Sports' mighty death machines clearly have far more regard for Penn State than Wisconsin, too, which makes us suspect that JoePa isn't quite the technophobe he purports to be.
The best little detail? Iowa State's average points per game against Iowa: 9 points. Even the WhatIf Sports computers don't think Iowa State will score their first touchdown against Iowa since 2006. (Fine, they could get a TD and a safety, if you want to be pedantic about it, and clearly you do. Dick.)
By far the most goddamn hilarious part of their Big Ten preview, though? Gotta be Minnesota:
No other Big Ten squad has that many games with winning percentages under 10% (even Indiana only has three games in that category). If WhatIf Sports is right, we won't be seeing much GO FIGHT WIN around the Twin Cities this fall.
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Well
Couldn’t ISU score a touchdown, miss the extra point, and then kick a field goal?
Anyway
They seem to be giving PSU’s quarterbacks a lot of credit (probably based off the player ratings), even though JoePa himself isn’t envisioning anything great from that unit this season…
I don't see Penn State being a problem for Iowa
this defense will not lose to a team whose QB is not veteran. The teams that have a defense that can remotely support their offense and thus be a real threat to us are ISU, AZ, Wisky, MSU, and OSU. That is where the loss(es) will come from in my opinion. Minny and Indiana have experienced QBs but no defense to support them. Michigan just seems like a mess.
"I wish you luck with a capital 'F'" - The Real Elvis.
Huh?
Unless I’m misreading your comment, you think the defenses of MSU and ISU stand a better chance than Penn State’s defense when it comes to “supporting” the offense? I tend to think that in early October Iowa will be relying on Stanzi’s passing, which would probably be better for Penn State’s defense since our secondary and pass rush should both be good (and very good in the case of the secondary).
I’d also wager Penn State’s offense will probably be better than Iowa State’s and MSU’s considering our returning “skill” guys and Joe’s apparent feelings about the o-line: “Right now we’re not tough enough and we’ve got to get tougher – and I think we will.”
I think Iowa will win, but I think it will be a dog fight as it usually is when both teams are good.
Turn your crank to Frank!
by ReadingRambler on Aug 25, 2010 1:05 PM CDT up reply actions
you have nothing to say about your QB strength which I thought was a pivotal part of SMA's argument
the trailer hitch scrotum was my idea
I will not talk shit to PSU.
They are dangerous EVERY year. I don’t care if they’re starting a freshman in his first start and on the road. I don’t care. Penn State is a great football team, and I fear them every year. If they can beat us with Morelli, they can beat us with anyone (yeah, yeah JC6… /wanking motion’d).
I hope the team isn’t looking past that matchup as much as fans seem to be. We’ve beat them a lot in recent years (which I love), but those past results mean dick this fall. PSU is a powerhouse team, and they will give it their all under the lights (especially considering what happened the last time they played after dark in Kinnick… though for BSD’s sake I hope they don’t come to get “revenge” cause that didn’t work out so well last year).
I think we have a good shot of winning that game, but I still see us as the underdogs in that one (I don’t care what they’re ranked, they are a powerhouse program… period).
by Eyeheartfreedumb on Aug 25, 2010 2:50 PM CDT up reply actions
I don't think anyone was talking shit. I certainly wasn't
Penn State = good game
Go Hawks
the trailer hitch scrotum was my idea
Rambler
I am saying that the teams that lack experience and proven ability at QB and have a solid or even decent defense concern me more than does Penn State. Doesn’t mean we will win against those teams that are breaking in new QBs. But they concern me less here in the preseason.
I think our defense, if fully healthy, has the chance to dominate a QB who has not played a bend don’t break like we run with this amount of senior leadership and skill set. If Penn State’s QB situation evens out and plays very well you will be a nightmare for everyone. But right now, I expect your QBs to be like ours from three years ago. Great for parts of games and then a stunningly boneheaded play.
"I wish you luck with a capital 'F'" - The Real Elvis.
Shit...I mean...
I am saying that the teams that have experience and proven ability at QB and
"I wish you luck with a capital 'F'" - The Real Elvis.
As for ISU and MSU
they have QBs that have convinced me they can get hot and carry an offense and even a defense if things fall right. I can’t say that about Penn State. It’s all projection at this point.
"I wish you luck with a capital 'F'" - The Real Elvis.
Fair enough.
Turn your crank to Frank!
by ReadingRambler on Aug 25, 2010 2:48 PM CDT up reply actions
The biggest laugh?
USC— probably the best team in the worst BCS conference, has a worse chance of Minnesota (arguably the worst team in our conference) than Illinois.
Yeesh. that is all.
I think you're reading that wrong.
Also: the Pac 10 is definitely not as bad as the Big East (yes, they are still a BCS conference).
"I want to be a cowboy. I don't want to be a panda. Pandas are boring, stupid and boring. Bad panda!"
What is interesting about Minnesota, though...
…is that they won the same percentage of simulations against USC as they did against Purdue.
by Abbas_Cincinnatus on Aug 25, 2010 12:57 PM CDT up reply actions
As hard as I try, I just can't find anything interesting about Minnesota.
the trailer hitch scrotum was my idea
Was he wearing his purple pants that show his butt when he made you those pancakes?
"You don't become a Hawkeye fan, You're born with Black and Gold in your veins." - Me
by BStylin Hawkye on Aug 25, 2010 3:40 PM CDT up reply actions
Wait a minute -
Prince is the Barbasol wife?
"Oh no, don't do that, don't do that. If you shoot him, you'll just make him mad." - The Waco Kid
by HawkOnRails on Aug 25, 2010 11:09 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Mmm... meat coma.
"I want to be a cowboy. I don't want to be a panda. Pandas are boring, stupid and boring. Bad panda!"
Doesn't this predict a win against Arizona.
Maybe I’m reading it wrong. But it looks like they say 10-2.
If you go by the Absolute Record, yes.
Their Expected Records are slightly different; again, the link explains it a bit more.
"I want to be a cowboy. I don't want to be a panda. Pandas are boring, stupid and boring. Bad panda!"
The Pythagorean Supremacy was better.
"All of this has happened before. All of this will happen again."
by Bucketochicken on Aug 25, 2010 2:21 PM CDT up reply actions
Kicking around the notion of going to Kinnick North this fall...
might be plenty of good seats for that roto-rooting.
Excuse me for my bellicosity. And spelling. Bellicosity and spelling.
by Blackheartnopants on Aug 25, 2010 12:37 PM CDT reply actions
That depends
I’m sure there won’t be many Minni fans there, but Iowans will pack the place (hence Kinnick North). Spoke with the ticket office and Iowa’s allotment is already gone. Fans are already scalping them for $200+ for a crappy corner endzone seat. If Iowa is playing to solidify a Big 10 title or potentially more, they’ll be even pricier.
by KinnickNorthHawk on Aug 25, 2010 1:11 PM CDT up reply actions
$200?
So loyal, those Gopher fans.
Excuse me for my bellicosity. And spelling. Bellicosity and spelling.
by Blackheartnopants on Aug 25, 2010 1:33 PM CDT up reply actions
I suspect that you will have little problem scalping a ticket at or below face on game day.
the trailer hitch scrotum was my idea
I suspect they’ll have fired Go Fight Win but the Minny fans will either want a pay day or won’t sell to Iowa fans.
Hmm.
won’t sell to Iowa fans
Yeah, I don’t think they’re that principled.
"I want to be a cowboy. I don't want to be a panda. Pandas are boring, stupid and boring. Bad panda!"
It would be classy though,
If the stadium were only about 75% of capacity and 80% of that were the Black and Gold.
Who's leg do I have to hump to get a drink around here?-Brian
That game is over Thanksgiving weekend
If Minnesota is completely out of it (looks to be, it appears) by then, hopefully a lot more tickets become available due to the holiday weekend and thus lowering the price.
"I know you're from Middle America, and sometimes you feel like you're representing more than just a school or a conference, maybe an entire group of American citizens out there."
by Twin Cities Hawk on Aug 25, 2010 1:37 PM CDT up reply actions
Not too worried.
Has anybody been to the Bank?
Excuse me for my bellicosity. And spelling. Bellicosity and spelling.
by Blackheartnopants on Aug 25, 2010 1:51 PM CDT up reply actions
IIRC for the Orange Bowl
They predicted that Georgia Tech wouldn’t complete a pass. They were right for 3/4 of the game and only missed by 2 completions.
by KinnickNorthHawk on Aug 25, 2010 1:06 PM CDT reply actions
Seems to fit the conventional wisdom...
…of the three strata in the Big Ten:
Class of the Conference: OSU, then a logjam of PSU, Iowa, Wisky
Midpack Toss-up: MSU, NW, Purdue
Crapfest: not-worst Illinois(!), Indiana, and a lawwwll-worthy Minny/Michigan tie at 1-7/3-9 (!!!)
I want to put MSU up a bit.
Not quite class, not quite toss-up.
Don’t know why, just a hunch.
Excuse me for my bellicosity. And spelling. Bellicosity and spelling.
by Blackheartnopants on Aug 25, 2010 1:52 PM CDT reply actions
So now that the regular season is over, where do y'all think 10-2 puts us as far as Bowl Games?
Are we BCS-ing it with the OBNUGgets? I can’t wait to talk some shit.
Hey, Blue Ponies you don’t play a quality schedule, you run trick plays on your blue turf, and your players are too small. (Did I hit all of their sore points?)
by Eyeheartfreedumb on Aug 25, 2010 3:00 PM CDT reply actions
They have PSU finishing ahead of Iowa
So no BCS bowl.
Perhaps we are under-estimating Penn State. Are their QBs really going to be that much less effective than Clark? He always seemed overrated to me. Maybe I’m biased since my fondest memories of Darryl Clark are him playing horribly against Iowa.
by burglinturds on Aug 25, 2010 3:24 PM CDT up reply actions
I've always thought DC was vastly overrated too.
It's not that I'm lazy, Bob, it's that I just don't care
DC was a great QB
Except against a good team
Like many college quarterbacks, DC was a great QB if he had a reasonable amount of time to throw (He did win OPOTY in 2008).
For instance, USC – with a defense globally considered the greatest defense since the Union at Little Round Top – got some pressure on Clark (Not Iowa 2009 level, but some) and Clark played very well in that game.
The offensive line, of course, was horrible against OSU and Iowa last year, but I also wonder how much blame should be placed on the receivers. OSU in particular ran a lot of press coverage and totally shut them down.
I honestly think Penn State will be very good this year (Although not as good as OSU and Iowa). The defense will be at least as good as last season’s unit. And I am fairly optimistic about the offensive line. At the very least, they shouldn’t be any worse than last year’s line which was still good enough to get us to 11 wins. 9-3 is a fine prediction. This team won’t be blown out by anyone except perhaps Alabama.
Turn your crank to Frank!
by ReadingRambler on Aug 25, 2010 6:33 PM CDT up reply actions
DC tried to take the team on his shoulders and was not quite up to the task
I felt bad as I watched him melt under the pressure during the last two games.
the trailer hitch scrotum was my idea
He was the opposite of Stanzi
in that he had a long memory. Stanzi, for all his flaws, shrugs off mistakes quickly and doesn’t let them get worse by affecting his future play (though he will make mistakes over, and over again). Clark was the opposite, especially in the 2009 game, as soon as something went wrong he made a mistake, he would let it fester in his mind and gnaw at him, affecting his play for the rest of the game.
I ate the blue ones ... they taste like burning.
You are both right.
Turn your crank to Frank!
by ReadingRambler on Aug 25, 2010 8:42 PM CDT up reply actions
And this is why, as an Iowa fan, I will miss DC.
…he would let it fester in his mind and gnaw at him, affecting his play for the rest of the game.
"The possibility of physical and mental collapse is now very real. No sympathy for the Devil, keep that in mind. Buy the ticket, take the ride!" HST
I really don't see Alabama blowing out Penn Schtate.
I think it will close; closer than the folks in Alabama want to believe. The PSU defense will keep them in the game. If they can run the ball, they have a chance at the win. I wouldn’t underestimate Evan Royster’s ability, especially with an experienced offensive line.
"The possibility of physical and mental collapse is now very real. No sympathy for the Devil, keep that in mind. Buy the ticket, take the ride!" HST
I realize this smacks of Big Televen homerism, but...
I think Penn State has a chance to really surprise some people this year, both in the Alabama game and throughout the season. There’s a lot of people that think that a loss to Alabama is a foregone conclusion, but I’m not so sure. That game features strength-on-strength and weakness-on-weakness.
PSU has a new signal caller running a relatively complex offense in a hostile road environment in week two. However, the opposing defense is also replacing a lot of players and also runs a complex system that takes some getting used to. I can see the Tide defenders making some mistakes and the Penn State skill players taking advantage of those mistakes.
I still think that Alabama will probably win, but I think Penn State has a chance in this game, unlike what a lot of ESPN’s talking heads are saying. Most importantly, it’s a difficult early test that will help solidify Penn State’s team as the season progresses. The fact that tOSU has them in mid-November could actually bode pretty well for the Lions, IMO.
by Abbas_Cincinnatus on Aug 26, 2010 9:12 AM CDT up reply actions
Agreed.
I’m NOT automatically chalking that one as a loss for PSU.
If the guys at tWWL say it (What!? ESPN is favoring the SEC team? NO WAY!?), I’m going with the opposite until proven wrong.
by Eyeheartfreedumb on Aug 26, 2010 9:41 AM CDT up reply actions
Yeah, fuck ESPN and their bias!
I mean, sure, the SEC has won the past 4 national championships. And yeah, they are 14 – 5 overall in BCS bowls, and have more overall bowl wins than any other conference.
But bias!!!!!!
by burglinturds on Aug 26, 2010 10:04 AM CDT up reply actions
I think there's a difference here.
Yes, the very best teams over the last five years have come from the SEC. However, that doesn’t mean that the SEC will automatically win every intersectional regular season game, especially this year where even the very best teams have some question marks.
by Abbas_Cincinnatus on Aug 26, 2010 11:31 AM CDT up reply actions
It's a total pipe dream, but
… imagine an Iowa-Alabama BCS game. Ferentz v. Saban, the Rematch? The Catch replayed a hundred times? That’d be fun. Especially if Iowa won again in similar fashion. Although, I would like to see a serious drubbing a la Florida or South Carolina so the SEC fans can give up on the whole, “you got lucky” angle.
A serious drubbing would be cool.
But I’d (kinda) rather see one of those 27-14 type games, where the defense basically clamps down after the offense goes up by two or three scores, and simply suffocates the other team to death. It’s more frustrating for them that way.
"All of this has happened before. All of this will happen again."
by Bucketochicken on Aug 25, 2010 9:34 PM CDT up reply actions
Don't kid yourself
SEC fans will never give up on the whole “you got lucky” angle. They will always think the SEC is god’s greatest gift to college football no matter how many times Iowa kicks the shit out their teams in bowl games…
I like the fact...
that WhatIfSports has the same win% for Iowa for home games against EIU and Ball St, and road games at Indiana and Minnesota. And the trip to Michigan has a win% that is comparable.
I've sentenced boys younger than you to the gas chamber. Didn't want to do it. I felt I owed it to them.
-- Judge Smails
If WhatIfSports is right, Minnesota should hear a lot of...
GO FIGHT TRY TRY AGAIN TRY HARDER YOU’RE NOT TRYING HARD ENOUGH GODDAMMIT ARGH SOMEBODY GET ME A BOX.
If WhatIfSports is right, Michigan should prepare for RichRod’s “pained face” to permanently freeze into a rictus of disappointment.
WIF is also predicting that...
no team in college football goes undefeated. Kind of interesting… I guess there predicting OSU vs Texas?
Oregon, OSU, Texas, and TCU all 1 loss
BSU, FL, AL – 2 losses…
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