Bradford object lesson

But Bulaga didn’t. This contract is a shining example of what’s going to change with the next Collective Bargaining Agreement. Salaries and guaranteed bonuses for rookies have gone up so much that it is crowding out the money available for proven vets. Needless to say, this does not sit well with the rest of the players (and rookies eventually become vets) nor do the owners like gambling with this much money. There is a long way to go until a new CBA is reached, but it will almost assuredly contain some sort of rookie salary cap/slotting system like MLB uses. This was the last year that deals like Bradford’s (or possibly even Bulaga’s) will happen.

You’ll pay top dollar for the good ones…but once they reach the age of 30 they’re essentially sloppy seconds. Or at least that’s how I value my hookers.

Shonn Greene (born August 21, 1985) was 24 for his 1st season in the NFL. He signed a 4 year deal that won’t make him a rich man compared to most starting NFL running backs. The real money that he is going to make will be from his 2nd deal. He will be 28 when he’s looking to sign his 2nd deal which means that he should still be somewhat desirable barring injury.

Had he waited another year he would be 29 when he’s looking to sign his 2nd deal…although it’s one year I think it makes a big difference. Maybe more likely he’ll be looking to restructure his deal after this year or next year while he’s still got some tread left on the tires.

Granted one more year at Iowa could have gotten him into the “Fuck you money” with his rookie deal…but it’s probably just as likely that one more year at Iowa could have landed him in a less enviable position of trying to make his way on an NFL roster as a 5th or 6th round pick.

All in all he landed in a pretty good position and should be one of the better running backs in the NFL in his 2nd year in the league and he has one of the best OLs in the league blocking for him and a coach who is committed to the run.

that the big money goes to QBs, and top 5 overall picks. I just looked at the Top 25 yearly salaries (which, I think, included signing bonuses) and it was pretty rare to see a lot of RBs in the top 10 or 15 of the whole NFL over the last few years. There are a fair amount of OL and DLs, but again, it seems like they usually have been high picks.

Would Bulaga have been a top 5 overall guy next year? Maybe, but it seems like “perception of career momentum” was not on his side. Dace (injuries) and Greene (age) probably also would not have been top 5 overall, even if they had awesome seasons late in their college careers.

Finally, I hate to say it, but I think being an Iowa player doesn’t really help you in terms of being drafted high. Yes, some Hawkeyes get drafted in the middle and late rounds because the NFL teams know that Ferentz and company have prepared them well. But, we rarely have the top-level talent that makes NFL scouts say “wow, we must give this guy $25 million or more.”

http://content.usatoday.com/sports/football/nfl/salaries/default.aspx?Loc=Vanity

and we will do so with one case study…Tim Tebow. And Case Study #2 Terrelle Pryor is coming shortly.

I personally have a hard time seeing Tim Tebow ever being better than Kyle Orton. I am going to look on in total fascination too, because Denver is going to give TT every opportunity under the sun to make it. No player in the history of professional football may be given as much rope as Tim Tebow is going to be given. He may very well blow my mind and become a very good starting QB.

But there was never any question in my mind that Shonn Greene was goinig to be a star RB. That he dropped that low was very unfortunate for him, and revealed just how wierd these NFL talent assessments really can be.

By the way, I think Bradford is capable of being the next Joe Montana. He got drafted by the wrong team though. So we’ll see just how much they can fuck up his talent. But if Iowa had Sam Bradford the last two years I think we would’ve lost maybe one game. Maybe.