National Football Post re: The Manzi's pro prospects
by hawk_e_night_in_iowa on Jul 16, 2010 6:52 AM CDT
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Printlink: "At this stage he isn’t anything more than a developmental-type option."
He's motivated to win/raise his stock (and we hope he does both). Still, the mechanics issues they talk about could explain some of the turnovers last year . . .
Profile doesn't discuss character and intangibles like his leadership, clutch play, or love of the U.S.of A. What's his ceiling? Is he the Heartland's answer to Tebow (mechanically flawed but just wins and leads) ?
Unless otherwise expressly indicated by BHGP editors, this FanPost is strictly the viewpoint of the author and is not endorsed by BHGP in any way.
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To give some perspective
According to This column in SI last week, the magic formula for predicting nfl success in college is : 26 on the wonderlic, start 27 games, complete 60% of passes.
No wonderlic yet (seems like a smart dude, should be fine)
Should start 27
Comp % as of now is 58% so a good year could raise that past the cut-off. . .
by hawk_e_night_in_iowa on Jul 16, 2010 7:12 AM CDT reply actions
Bill Parcells
has a draft formula for quartebacks that goes as follows:
1) Senior (check)
2) Graduated college (should be check for Stanzi)
3) 3-year starter (closer to 3 than 2)
4) Win 23 games (Definitely on pace)
It’s also been floated that Parcells likes his quarterbacks to have played in colder climates.
Cold climates
Makes sense. I would think that if you don’t know how to grip the ball and pass in cold weather situations by the time you’re at that level, it would be more difficult to pick up.
It never gets to be easy
by chitownhawkeye on Jul 16, 2010 5:54 PM CDT up reply actions
ummm.....doesn't work
the link will not open up. It could just be me not knowing how to click on a link properly.
by Donkerwilly on Jul 16, 2010 10:20 AM CDT reply actions 1 recs
Tom Brady
Sucks. He can’t be compared to another QB, as there has never been a QB like him before. In the future, we’ll be comparing all Heisman trophy winning QBs to him.
Edit
Ambiguous…
Tom Brady sucks.
“He” in “He can’t be compared…” is THE Ricky Stanzi
I don't know what to vote for here...
Having seen so many Hawkeye QBs not get solid chances at the NFL makes me worry that Stanzi will be doomed to a similar fate.
However, just looking at some guys that have started in the NFL in recent years makes me think Stanzi would be a good gamble for some team. If Jake Delhomme still has a job, and if Philadelphia is willing to ash-can McNabb to give Kevin Kolb the starting gig, then somebody should be able to utilize Stanzi as a 3rd stringer for a couple years. If he can get to that spot, then he could eventually blossom into a career backup or a long-term starter. I don’t think I see teams lining up to draft him in the first two rounds and give him a starting spot in year one or two.
Because he is at Iowa, he’ll probably have to take us to another big season just to get noticed or considered as an early-round pick (rounds 1-4). I imagine at the combine his slight lack of mobility and his intereceptions might be a bit of a problem.
Here is a list of senior-to-be QBs for the 2011 draft:
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/prospectrankings/TSX/2011_QB
Right now, CBS has Stanzi at #12 for QBs and projected as a 7th rounder or free agent. Some of the big names ahead of Stanzi on the list are: Locker of Washington, Ponder of FSU, Keenum of Houston, and McElroy of Alabama.
(If you look at their full list, they have Clayborn as the #2 overall in the whole draft [seniors-only]. Ballard is #61 overall, DJK is #86 overall, Donahue is #164, Greenwood is #236, Hunter is #243).
I've sentenced boys younger than you to the gas chamber. Didn't want to do it. I felt I owed it to them.
-- Judge Smails
It's not very complicated for Ricky.
Eliminate the Stanzi balls, still win the close games with strong, gamer play, and show people he can throw the 15 yard out. (Tate and Banks could not, and they were gone in 60 seconds.)
I don’t think he’s shown people he can thrown a 15 yard out. (In my day, it was a ‘sideline’, and the out was that 5 yard thingy Iowa throws all the time.)
It’s really up to him. We’re not going to win 11 if he throws six pick-sixes. In this respect, last year was a fluke.
Mr. Boh Knows ...
If he does that
he’s in the NFL. They love bodies. He has the body.
[This is not stream of consciousness, and that is all.]
Mr. Boh Knows ...
I was being sincere last time.
I did, actually, enjoy the stream of consciousness.
I also think you’re right about Stanzi. He’s got the size necessary to get an opportunity, but he’s got to clean up his game a bit. I don’t think he’ll ever be a premier QB in the league, but he could definitely be a solid QB2.
by The Mexican't on Jul 17, 2010 12:12 AM CDT up reply actions
How the hell is McElroy up there
He is a terrible QB, unless all you want your QB to do is hand-off.
It's not that I'm lazy, Bob, it's that I just don't care
It will depend
if he can reign in the Rick Sixes this season.
I have the same fashion sense as Tom Arnold.
Vision
I just don’t think Rick “sees the field” well. Seems to not see open receivers (I know how hard that must be) and forces the ball into a predetermined receiver. He did it in the second quarter of the OB. Not the pick six, but later on a stalled drive around midfield, where he threw to the tight end in double or triple coverage down the sideline and McNutt was uncovered 10 yards down in the middle of the field. Completely uncovered…. He seems to do this alot.
You're right
he knows what receiver he wants to hit when the huddle breaks and rarely changes his mind during the play. I have seen him stare down receivers countless times while somebody is 10 yards past the first down uncovered.
by Pain in the Sash on Jul 18, 2010 11:09 AM CDT up reply actions
Of course, as the NFL Post guys says,
Iowa often cuts the field in half for its QBs, what with the play action/bootleg rollouts, so here the issue is an ability to check down on a simplified, smaller field.
I thought there was some weird mental stuff going on with some of those INTs last year — almost a Chris Knoblauch freakout at ball release. Some of those passes were tentative ducks, as though his eyes were closed and his heart had stopped. They weren’t Brett Favre, screw you, I’m zinging it in there, INTs. They were strange creatures.
Mr. Boh Knows ...
Chuck Knoblauch isn't it?
It's not that I'm lazy, Bob, it's that I just don't care
Yeah...
but when he acquired that mental block about throwing to first base, then the alternate personality took over (Chris Knoblauch).
I've sentenced boys younger than you to the gas chamber. Didn't want to do it. I felt I owed it to them.
-- Judge Smails
by WaterlooChazz on Jul 20, 2010 4:41 PM CDT up reply actions
Stanzi seemed better on play-action and rollouts.
So maybe the field vision thing is it. Watching game tape can help with that. We’ll see. I voted for capable back-up. If he’s “getting a look” because he’s big enough and all that, a good senior season can get him a chance to to win a spot on the roster. I can see him pulling a Flutie/Hostetler kind of thing. Subbing in for an injured starter late in the season. Pulling off a couple of surprise playoff wins.
"In case you can't tell, I'm being sarcastic!" - Homer Simpson
by EastLosRandy on Jul 25, 2010 4:34 PM CDT up reply actions
Lot's of rose-colored glasses 'round here
This probably won’t be a popular opinion, but I really don’t see an NFL QB when I watch Stanzi. Yes, he’s a big strong guy, but his arm strength is, well, pathetic. He simply cannot throw an out, or anything outside the hashes. This is against college competition mind you.
I think back to the Arizona game, for example. Trevin Wade, a likely NFL corner, had one pick six and got his hands on a couple of others. How many of his completions should/could have easily been picks were it not for heroic effort and superior size on the part of DJK, McNutt, or Moeaki (especially on deeper throws). Even when safely out of the reach of a defender, he routinely throws behind receivers instead of hitting them in stride. Many, many ‘great catches’ went into making his numbers respectable.
I don’t think I need to harp on his decision-making skills, as anytime a QB has multiple nicknames referring to his propensity to throw INT’s, the point is already known. Ricky is always toeing the line between success and failure. In the pros, the margin for error is much smaller.
As do many of you, I watch college games all day during the season, which allows the opportunity to assess dozens of other QB’s over the course of a season. Skill-wise, Ricky looks pretty average to me. Lots and lots of bad throws, and only a 56% completion percentage in an overall conservative offense. Not trying to disparage our fearless leader, just offer some objectivity to the discussion.
If he doesn't make it to the NFL,
I know of a team he might play for.
I remember when this first caught my attention a few years ago, when the U.S. won the World Cup for American Football. I was as surprised as anyone that there was one, but I thought it was cool that they are trying to make the sport popular elsewhere. Anyways, the U.S. team consisted of only players that just graduated college that weren’t playing pro. Next summer they will have the next World Cup and just as the football gods intended, Ricky Stanzi will meet those requirements if he holds off on signing with a team until after the competiton. I love the idea of getting to see Ricky represent the U.S. on an international level.
"Developmental"?
They won’t be saying that when he throws 76 touchdowns, completes 92% of his passes, and is the only player invited to the Heisman trophy presentation this year.
The only knock on him will be the 13 interceptions. One in every game, just to make the other teams feel a little better about the 60-point beat down they are receiving.
NFL potential means little in the scheme of things.
Stanzi is well on his way to becoming a fixture in the pantheon of memorable and revered Hawkeye football players too long to list. Who cares if he doesn’t play professionally; if he has as good a year in 2010 as he did in 2009 he will never have to buy his own beer in Iowa City again. What more can a man ask for?
If you feel like singing along, don't.
James Taylor
He should already be at the point.
For “7 got 6” and “Love it or leave it” alone.
"I want to be a cowboy. I don't want to be a panda. Pandas are boring, stupid and boring. Bad panda!"
Ask Roy Marble how that scenario worked out for him
by Brock Sampson on Jul 20, 2010 7:45 PM CDT up reply actions
You're supposed to buy him A Coke.
Not just coke.
I've sentenced boys younger than you to the gas chamber. Didn't want to do it. I felt I owed it to them.
-- Judge Smails
by WaterlooChazz on Jul 20, 2010 9:12 PM CDT up reply actions
The missing in those formulas (26-27-60 and Bill's) is draft spot.
But that’s implied in the guys the SI article mentioned. General consensus means something. There are a lot of guys who fall into that 26-27-60 rule, but because of their size or because teams know their stats were inflated due to a lot of short passes or due to poor mechanics, they aren’t drafted in the top 2 rounds. I don’t know about all of the Texas Tech guys, but I’d be surprised if at least one of them didn’t hit the mark. But no one thinks they’re any good.
Anywho….
In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).
Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.
not sure if you were alluding to it or not
but Football Outsiders has the “Lewin Projection System”. Basically for guys drafted in the top 2 rounds (weeds out most of the goofy system guys who gradually kill the predictive power of Comp% and Starts as you get further down the draft) Comp% and starts are quite good indicators of success on the Pro Level, though it’s better at picking Flops than Stars.
Without a major breakthrough (like a 10% rise in comp% from last year assuming the O doesn’t get a lot more pass heavy) sub-60% completion with a solid, but nothing special ~30 starts won’t give a great recommendation.
I like Stanzi a lot, and will be rooting for him to make it in the Pros, but I don’t think he will (or should be barring major improvement) be a early rounds prospect.
Choke/Clutch is the fetishization of the small sample size.
"People who think they know everything are a great annoyance to those of us who do." -Isaac Asimov
by shake n bake on Jul 29, 2010 2:18 PM CDT up reply actions
I would like to say
That Stanzi will become backup to Rodgers in Green Bay and move Matt Flynn to 3rd string, but I don’t see it happening. I see Stanzi going in the 5th round. I expect him to be a back-up right out of the gate to a pretty mediocre QB depth chart. Hopefully starter by year 3 in the NFL. As said before though, he needs to eliminate the Rick Sixes. As far as mobility, I feel like he is a pretty agile QB. He is no Terrelle Pryor, as much as i hate to say it, but the guy can move around the pocket and dodge some wanna be tacklers. I think he will make a mark in the NFL at some point in his career. Praying that it wont be another Tate or Banks story.
I was a homer and voted for 'Capable Backup'
But that’s assuming he improves a lot this year.
by HeartOfHawkness on Jul 25, 2010 10:24 PM CDT reply actions
You have a great screenname.
I feel you should photoshop an Iowa logo onto Don Cherry’s face and make that your avatar.
Friend of the Pants since 2009.
by ReadingRambler on Jul 27, 2010 10:03 PM CDT reply actions
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