Here's what we know: barring a gigantic unforeseen development from another conference (Big XII or otherwise), Nebraska is going to take the first steps toward Big Ten membership today. It's uncertain until the announcement is made, of course, but it's about as uncertain as a bride walking down the aisle and reminding everyone in earshot that they're not married yet: the issue is either timing or a catastrophically poor sense of the moment.
For everything else, though, the issue isn't that no reporter has been intrepid enough to find the ultimate truth, it's that that truth doesn't exist yet. There isn't an administrator in College Station that went to bed last night knowing whether his school would be in the Pac-10, Big XII, Big 10, or SEC in 2012. That is ongoing and anyone who purports to know otherwise trusts his sources too much. The rest of the Texas schools might go to the Pac-10... unless they don't. Seriously, right now, nobody knows for sure.
So let's work off the assumption--I know, mother of all FUBARs, but consider the situation--that Nebraska's official departure is the death knell Texas has been (so politically) salivating for. What happens from there is anybody's guess. Texas could escort the Oklahoma schools, A&M, and Texas Tech to the Pac-10. Texas A&M could force their way into the SEC, pray that Oklahoma joins them, and otherwise spend hours praying. Texas might even--and suspend some disbelief here--prove Peter Bean right and decide that the status quo is the most important thing, heroically salvaging the conference.
So we've created a poll down below, because why the hell not. If we're all left guessing for the answer, we might as well guess together. Oh, and Nebraska's still a mortal lock for the Big 10. Sorry, Bob Phares. And as for the rest of the day and weekend, we'll be providing updates. Again, nothing is settled, so if you read a website who claims to have answers, rest assured they're lying. We'll know abut five seconds after he NCAA knows, and that hasn't happened yet. Patience, Daniels-san.