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73-57: In Which We Gather Little From a 16-Point Win

First things first; final score was 73-57, here's the recap. Certainly not a bad showing on the Senior's Night.

As far as what to take from this game, though, is there much? It's plainly obvious that Indiana has a bad, bad basketball team this year, and Crean's not turning that one around without talent and experience (sound familiar?). We don't get to say this very often, but Iowa just plain outclassed Indiana horn to horn, and the Hoosiers really had no chance to win; their last lead of the game was 4-2, and the last time they were within single digits was with 14 minutes left in the game.

That in as much should sound like great news for Iowa--"hey great, we're dominating crap teams again"--but this wasn't an Iowa domination inasmuch as just Indiana taking such poor care of the ball that they had zero chance of outscoring the Hawkeyes. Consider this: the Hawkeyes' effective field goal percentage was 49.0. Indiana's was 46.3. Advantage Hawkeyes, to be sure, but hardly an insurmountable margin at that. And yet, when it comes to overall offensive efficiency, Iowa scored 1.15 points per possession, while Indiana managed 0.89. The disparity, of course, can only come from two factors: offensive rebounding and turnovers. Both affect shots per possession, and Indiana was miserable on both ends.

The Hoosiers gathered just 6 of 25 of their missed shots, which out of context sounds not so bad, but is a pace of 24%; if they kept that up for the entire season, they'd be 7th worst in the entire nation.* As for turnovers, Indiana committed 20 in a 63-possession game. That's plainly inexcusable, especially because Iowa only managed 7 steals. Sure, drawing an offensive foul is sort of like a steal, but it doesn't lead to fast breaks or other quick offensive advantages; Indiana would at least be able to get a defense set, so there is a difference in value.

Iowa, meanwhile, gobbled up 11 of 31 opportunities on the offensive glass for a much more reasonable 35.5 OReb rate. Further, they committed only 11 turnovers--another above-average rate that significantly outpaces their total season performance thus far this year. Basically, Iowa made up for every turnover on the offensive glass. Indiana most certainly did not. And let's not talk about the Hoosiers' abysmal 4-to-20 assist-to-turnover ratio, except to say one word: ew.

As individual performances go, all man of the match talk must focus almost exclusively on Matt Gatens, who had a career game with 25 points. Sure, his other stats were pedestrian--two assists, two rebounds, hooray only one turnover--but the shooting is the most important, since Gatens is clearly the only person on this team even remotely capable of leading the team here on a daily basis. In fact, the most encouraging aspect of this performance is what wasn't a key component.

Star-divide

That would be long-range jumpers: Gatens only went 2-7 there. It's what he did when he put the ball on the floor and dribbled with the intent to score--which regular readers will know we'd been screaming for all season long--that made the difference. Gatens went 6-for-7 from inside the arc, all on mid-range jumpers, and he drew enough fouls to go (a slightly disturbing) 7-10 from the line. That's 25 points on 14 shots from the field, that's a career high, and that's what this team desperately needs from their de facto leader. Does Matt Gatens have what it takes to be a 20-point "go-to guy" next season, or must Lickliter and the team depend on less experienced, more inconsistent players for their minutes? This is the challenge facing Gatens, and '10-'11's success hangs in the balance. No pressure or anything.

Oh, and Andrew Brommer fouled out in 10 minutes. Again. Season stats: 33 points, 29 fouls. Oh, and only road games with Wisconsin and Minnesota loom; the 1:1 ratio is TOTALLY in play. Just something to keep your eyes on.

Really, if there's anything to take from this, it's that Iowa has at least matured into a decent home team. That's not to say that Carver is at all a fearsome road atmosphere for opposing teams or otherwise not in need of a serious restructuring, but that once the stresses of road play are removed, these guys aren't really that bad. Their point differential in BXI home games this season was an aggregate -17; take away the MSU unpleasantness and Iowa outscored their opponents by one whole point in the remaining eight conference home games. There's something there, as long as this seed of confidence isn't watered by the urine of fate again. Err, yet again.  

Of course, on the road, Iowa gets flattened like raccoons staring up at an oncoming semi grille; they've lost by nearly 11 points per game in their seven conference road games thus far. Worse yet, in multiple cases, the final margin was misleadingly low, as Iowa could have been doubled up by a more dickish coach without a gang of walk-on-adoring fans to keep happy. But what's to be expected of a team full of non-elite freshmen and sophomores?

Now, granted, adding even more freshmen to the rotation next year isn't going to solve any problems on its own, but for the first time in his Iowa stint, Lickliter stands to have a good core of upperclassmen who know the system (sorry). Perhaps there'll also be more than just one team in the conference that Iowa should--and does--whip, and perhaps that march back to relevance continues apace  Perhaps, perhaps, perhaps.

Or maybe it's just fucking Indiana.

 

 

*Interesting note: there's so little that Iowa does well, but one of them is crashing the boards on defense; Iowa holds its opponents to under 30% offensive rebounding on the season. That's good enough for 56th best in the nation. Not bad for a bunch of undersized jumper rats, right?

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According to the second paragraph, yes:

We don’t get to say this very often, but Iowa just plain outclassed Indiana horn to horn, and the Hoosiers really had no chance to win; their last lead of the game was 4-2, and the last time they were within single digits was with 14 minutes left in the game.

by HeartOfHawkness on Mar 1, 2010 6:23 AM CST up reply actions  

Are you really asking people to read the story for you?

Good lord.

I got more rhymes than Wade Lookingbill's got dunks

by Adam Jacobi on Mar 1, 2010 3:02 PM CST up reply actions  

Read the story?

Hell, they only needed to read the headline to answer that question.

by The Mexican't on Mar 1, 2010 4:14 PM CST up reply actions  

Methinks

perhaps the poster was implying the recap was unnecessarily harsh for a game that Iowa won.

by Third Generation Hawk on Mar 1, 2010 5:25 PM CST up reply actions  

I guess that would make sense.

Although it may have been easier to understand if it said, “didn’t Iowa win?” Meh.

by The Mexican't on Mar 1, 2010 7:05 PM CST up reply actions  

Oh, and Andrew Brommer fouled out in 10 minutes.

You hate on Brommer here, (deservedly so) But I do think its worth mentioning that he didnt look completely inept on the defensive side of the ball. I mean a little inept, just not the complete god awfulness we’re used to.
(on a side note I found his breakaway almost lay-up hilarious)

by cubbyhawk on Mar 1, 2010 6:51 AM CST reply actions  

And he had that MONSTER block....

…on the guy flipping it up over his head on the his way to the floor. Nice, Brommer. Nice.

by imadirtyoldman on Mar 1, 2010 7:25 AM CST up reply actions  

That owned

Definitely the loudest Carver was all night. He also had a really nice steal and outlet pass leading to May’s circus fast break layup. Of course he was also slow to rotate a lot and had plenty of dumb fouls (those two things are probably related), but all and all he at least did a couple things right. He’s still terrible and appears to be unaware of the rules of this sport he is on scholarship to play, but he’s slightly less terrible than he was a couple months ago.

by NorseHawk on Mar 1, 2010 8:03 AM CST up reply actions  

As a guy told me on Saturday (in reference to another sport entirely), if you’re going to lead the team in something, lead the fucking team. Fouling out = Brommer.

by txhawkeye on Mar 1, 2010 10:19 AM CST up reply actions  

"Urine of Fate" would be a sweet band name.

…or a less-sweet parlor game.


"Do a flip!" - Bender B. Rodriguez

by Bucketochicken on Mar 1, 2010 7:28 AM CST reply actions  

Honestly, I'm not even sure what a "parlor" even is.

Something that parls, presumably. Old-timey English is weird.


"Do a flip!" - Bender B. Rodriguez

by Bucketochicken on Mar 1, 2010 7:29 AM CST up reply actions  

Now for the bad news

Iowa has beaten a whopping total of 3 teams with winning records: Northwestern, South Carolina State, and Praire View. Which means Iowa will not have beaten a team going to the NCAA tournament. Yes, they have played fairly tough at home against some teams that are very good. But one has to ask, were these teams “up” for playing Iowa?

My greater concern is our inability to play well enough to win a game against a quality team (jNU excluded as you can see). Indiana beat Pittsburgh on the road (before IU’s best player went down, which begs the question: would Iowa have lost both of those IU games had he stayed healty?) and Penn State recetnly swept Northwestern and won ON THE ROAD at Michigan and earlier in the season against an above .500 Virginia.

My point? Once you factor in the quality of the opposition Iowa might be the worst team in the conference and on a neutral court Iowa probably loses to Penn State more often than not, and if Inidiana is at full strength, them as well.

So we are at a low point which can only be seen as a “glass half full” type of season if we factor in that Iowa, at home, played some very good teams well. The dreaded moral victories argument. Oh, and yes, Iowa did play two quality 20 minute stretches outside of CHA in losses in which they tied or outscored their quality opponent : Texas (first half, tied) on a neutral court and Michigan State (second half, +5 pts)…and lost both games.

- I am of the opinion that we will lose our next two badly, conclude a 10-21 season and hope against hope that no one transfers.
- Then we will bring in a freshman class that, to me, on paper, looks like a long-term impact class (no immediate starters coming in with this group as only McCabe appears to be ready in terms of skill set, mind and body…Archie seems like a role player to me, who takes over for Brommer), which means I think Iowa is looking at a 14 win season next year, with the win total increase coming in the out of conference home games.
- I do not see a major improvement in conference…maybe a game or two better.

I think Iowa is now in a very difficult place with this coach. A bold AD would cut bait right now, eat the money short term with a creative hire and shorten the curve back toward respectablity. We know that is not going to happen. Instead, we are led by a coach who reminds me of the the one at Rutgers and on a similar trajectory…if we are lucky. Which saddens me.

"I’m sick of following my dreams. I’m just going to ask them where they’re going and hook up with them later." M.H.

by StoopsMyAss on Mar 1, 2010 8:24 AM CST reply actions  

Couldn't agree more

SMA is right, this team is headed nowhere, and nowhere fast….time to cut ties I believe and get someone different in here to lead these guys….

You will never move forward by looking back....

by By Santo's Grace on Mar 1, 2010 8:28 AM CST reply actions  

Frankly, I'm startled that Brommer only has 29 fouls.

It certainly seems like far more…

"I want to be a cowboy. I don't want to be a panda. Pandas are boring, stupid and boring. Bad panda!"

by RossWB on Mar 1, 2010 8:35 AM CST reply actions  

And they were letting them play yesterday

He might have fouled out sooner. He’s not getting ticky-tack fouls either. He’s getting called for obvious moving screens and just straight-up running into the opposing team.

by salparadise23 on Mar 1, 2010 8:58 AM CST up reply actions  

Which, admittedly, is perversely entertaining.

I got more rhymes than Wade Lookingbill's got dunks

by Adam Jacobi on Mar 1, 2010 9:04 AM CST via mobile up reply actions  

Is it wrong that ...

I’m rooting for him to finish the year with more fouls than points? If you’re gonna be awful, be as awful as you can be. Am I right?

Excuse me for my bellicosity. And spelling. Bellicosity and spelling.

by Blackheartnopants on Mar 1, 2010 9:38 AM CST up reply actions  

Brommer

Actually looks, physically, like a college ball player. He just has a complete lack of lateral movement and quickness. Seriously – how many times do you see him picking up a blocking foul when picking up a guy on a switch at the top of the lane? If only he could move his feet, he may be OK.

by imadirtyoldman on Mar 1, 2010 9:31 AM CST via mobile reply actions  

If only me auntie had bollocks, she would be me uncle

No self-respecting man from Iowa goes anywhere without beer

by Hayden Fry's Moustache Ride on Mar 1, 2010 10:10 AM CST up reply actions   1 recs

I'm just impressed

that Iowa actually won a game by double digits while shooting 3-17 from 3-point range

by HeroPatriotStanzi on Mar 1, 2010 10:15 AM CST reply actions  

It is curious indeed.

To me, it really highlights the fact that this Indiana team is really outrageously awful. I haven’t watched enough other Indiana games to say if yesterday’s performance was that much more dreadful than normal (I value my sanity too highly), but I have to laugh at the people trying to tout yesterday as a good performance for Iowa. For the most part, they were alright; they just happened to be playing a team that was spectacularly terrible in nearly all phases of the game. They couldn’t shoot, couldn’t defend, couldn’t hold onto the ball. In December, I thought Iowa was the worst BCS conference team… right conference, wrong team, it looks like.

There was a comment from an Indiana fan elsewhere that praised Iowa’s b-ball IQ and defense. I had to laugh because that person clearly hadn’t watched Iowa much beyond the Indiana games. Anyone who watched the jNWU game a mere three days earlier would have never dreamed of praising their b-ball IQ or defensive ability.

I’m happy Iowa won, of course, and glad they won by 16 points (thanks largely to Hack-a-CULLYPAYNE failing so majestically), but I don’t regard it as anything more than fool’s gold.

"I want to be a cowboy. I don't want to be a panda. Pandas are boring, stupid and boring. Bad panda!"

by RossWB on Mar 1, 2010 10:33 AM CST up reply actions  

We actually lost to Indiana.

Mainly due to poor shooting and turnovers. But I think we beat them 9 out of 10 times. They are godawful.

"It’s just that, reading through this thread, it appears you’re getting your ass kicked." -jtothep

by ReadingRambler on Mar 1, 2010 11:40 AM CST up reply actions  

Incidentally, it sounds like Round 3 with the LOLverines is all but assured in the BTT now.

We sit at 4-12 (9th place), PSU and Indiana are at 3-13.

Remaining games:
Iowa: @WIS, @MIN
PSU: @MSU, Purdue
Ind: @Pur, jNWU

We have the head-to-head tiebreaker over both teams. Assuming we lose out, either PSU or Indiana would need to sweep their remaining two games to get ahead of us. Given jNWU’s indifferent form on the road of late, it’s not inconceivable that they could lose @Indiana (although it is if Indiana played as badly as they did yesterday), but the only scenario where I see Indiana winning at Purdue involves an attack by a pack of roving mountain lions. A split by PSU wouldn’t shock me, given their improved form of late, but a sweep would be surprising.

As far as the 7/8 seeding:
jNWU: @Ind
Mich: Minn, @MSU

Northwestern has the head-to-head tiebreaker over Michigan too, so Michigan would need jNWU to lose to Indiana and they would have to win both of their remaining games. Seems like a stretch.

Hopefully the annual BTT showdown with Michigan goes a bit better for Iowa this year…

"I want to be a cowboy. I don't want to be a panda. Pandas are boring, stupid and boring. Bad panda!"

by RossWB on Mar 1, 2010 10:41 AM CST reply actions  

What?

It’s a thoughtful and insightful answer to a common question. Is a coach not supposed to do that?

I got more rhymes than Wade Lookingbill's got dunks

by Adam Jacobi on Mar 1, 2010 3:05 PM CST up reply actions  

D'oh.

Reply below.

by Bizryter on Mar 1, 2010 7:45 PM CST up reply actions  

I enjoyed

The last 15 seconds the most. It was one of the most skillful evasive mumbles I’ve ever seen.

by Bizryter on Mar 1, 2010 7:44 PM CST reply actions  

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