FanPost

Chances of Iowa Big Ten Title (or: It Can't Get Any Worse)

[Bumped. Instructive reading when it comes to objectively measuring Iowa's Rose Bowl chances instead of what they mean or what narrative it serves or whatever.--AJ]

OK, aside from a Sgt Pepper-esque play on last week's post the subtitle doesn't make any sense.  No real change from last week.  No new surprises.

To recap, three weeks ago we had, by my calcs, a 32% shot at the Rose Bowl.  After losing to Wisconsin that dropped to a 14% chance.  And after stomping MSU that increased back up to 28%.

As everyone should know by now, Iowa winning the B10 and going to the Rose Bowl is contingent on two and only two things happening:

THING #1 - Iowa must win out.

Odds of an Iowa win in each game (methodology below):
jNW-A, 90%
tOSU-H, 52.5%
MN-A, 100%

Chance of Iowa not losing any more games: 0.90 * 0.525 * 1.00 = 47% (was 51% last week)

THING #2 - Wisconsin must lose at least once.

Odds of a Wisconsin win in each game:
Ind-H, 90%
Mich-A, 55%
jNW-H, 87.5%

Chance of Wisconsin NOT LOSING any more games: 0.90 * 0.55 * 0.875 = 47%
Chance of Wisconsin LOSING AT LEAST ONCE: 1.00 - 0.44 = 53% (was 56% last week)

ROSE BOWL CHANCES FOR IOWA
0.47 * 0.53 = 25%

So down a little from 28% last week.  If Wisconsin continues to win these odds have nowhere to go but down.

Let's have some fun with the scenarios:

Undisputed Champion / No Ties (25.9%)
Iowa alone    10.7%           
OSU alone    9.2%           
MSU alone    3.7%           
Wisc alone    2.4%           
               
2-way tie (47.6%)
Iowa-MSU    14.4%           
OSU-MSU    12.4%           
Wisc-Iowa    9.4%           
Wisc-OSU    8.1%           
MSU-Wisc    3.3%           
               
3-way tie (23.7%)
MSU-Iowa-Wisc    12.7%           
OSU-Wisc-MSU    11.0% (I'm assuming OSU wins the BCS tie-breaker here)          
               
Armeggedon - everyone with two losses - 2.7%
 
And...each team's chances...

Iowa Hawkeyes to Rose Bowl (25.1%)
alone    10.7%           
tie with MSU    14.4%           
               
Ohio St. Buckeyes to Rose Bowl (32.5%)
alone    9.2%           
tie with MSU    12.4%           
3-way tie w/ Wisc/MSU    11.0%           
               
Michigan St. Spartans to Rose Bowl (19.7%)
alone    3.7%           
tie with Wisc    3.3%           
3-way tie w/ IA/Wisc    12.7%           
               
Wisconsin Badgers to Rose Bowl (19.9%)           
alone    2.4%           
tie w/ Iowa    9.4%           
tie w/ OSU    8.1%

Any questions?

Methodology notes: I'm taking team strengths from Sagarin's PREDICTOR.  Add 3 points to home team, compare strengths, that's your spread.  I'm assuming a spread of 0 means a 50/50 chance of either team winning, a spread of 20 or more means no chance of the underdog winning, and a linear distribution in between.  Those are not well-founded assumptions - especially the last one - and any thoughts you have on it are appreciated.

Sagarin PREDICTOR ratings (team, rating, change from last week):
tOSU    88.22    -0.16
Iowa    86.17    -1.45
MSU    79.56    -0.23
Wisc    79.37    -0.35
Ill    79.29    -0.82
Mich    74.48    0.6
PSU    73.84    -0.06
jNW    66.94    -0.74
Ind    63.63    1.44
Purdue    59.62    -2.57
MN    58.57    -0.87

Everyone in the Big Ten dropped in the Sagarin ratings except for Indiana and Michigan.  Must have been a rough week for our non-conference foes.

Unless otherwise expressly indicated by BHGP editors, this FanPost is strictly the viewpoint of the author and is not endorsed by BHGP in any way.

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