Analysis of Iowa Offensive Playcalling This Season

Subtitled: Is Iowa really as conservative as much of the masses believe?

Sub-subtitled: I didn't know there was going to be math.

Author's Note: This is quite long, so enjoy or do not. There is no try.

As we are all aware, much consternation and hand-wringing occurs over the playcalling of our beloved (at least by me) offensive coordinator, Ken O'Keefe. I will start by saying that, in general, I think KOK does a good job and I am supportive of him. I figure that Kirk Ferentz is much, MUCH smarter than me so if he wants KOK, then so do I. I know many of our venerable posters feel differently, which is their Stanzi-given right. My analysis is the product of curiosity and boredom. A few hypotheses after the jump.

Hypothesis #1: Iowa will always strive for offensive balance unless AIRBHG leaves zero Division I caliber running backs standing (see Brownlee, Sam).

Hypothesis #2: In my fan-addled viewing of games, it seems that we run more than pass on 1st down. It also feels like 2nd & 10 is generally a running down and that 3rd & long is ripe for draw plays.

Hypothesis #3: KOK IS TOO CONSERVATIVE. WE NEED TO FIRE HIM NOW AND HIRE SOMEONE ELSE WHO CALLS PLAYS LIKE I DO ON PLAYSTATION. ARRRGH, WE PUNTED, FIRE EVERYONE!

I charted all of the plays this season by down, distance, play call, result, score, etc. It was a fun exercise that took a few hours this morning. The results below, hopefully collated into something that is readable and makes some sense. (Sacks and scrambles are considered passes since that was the play called.)

First Down

Iowa has run 158 plays on first down:

90 runs, 67 passes, and 1 kneel down

Run - 57.3%, Pass - 42.7%

The percentages are slightly skewed because Iowa has run 14 plays in a goal-to-go situation where 9 or less yards were needed. Iowa has run 12 times while passing only twice.

I then limited the scope to 1st and 10 plays (when a failed run is almost guaranteed to rile up the aluminum bench QBs) when the game is within three scores. Although a bit subjective, it leaves out the ends of games against cupcakes EIU, ISU, and BSU. Or in the case of Iowa State, most of the game.

1st and 10 with a margin from -21 to 21

Iowa has run 103 plays.

50 runs and 53 passes.

Run - 48.5%, Pass - 51.5%

I was surprised to see that run/pass is almost a 50/50 split on 1st and 10, with a few more passes than runs so far.

I didn't compare the play results for all situations, but took a peek for 1st and 10 and the results are pretty stark - Iowa is much more effective throwing the ball on 1st and 10 as opposed to running it. On the 53 passes, there have been 3 sacks for a loss of 24 yards and two Stanzi scrambles for a gain of 24 yards. JVB threw one pass against EIU before it was completely out of hand. That leaves 44 passes for Stanzi. His numbers:

33 of 44 (75.0%), for 560 yards (12.7 per att), 2 TDs, 2 INTs.

19 of the 31 non-TD completions went for 10+ yards and a 1st down. 10 of the 12 remaining completions went for 7-9 yards, leaving the offense in 2nd & 3 or shorter. Only two completions were for less than 7 yards. Pretty solid. (Non-1st & 10 numbers: 49 of 77 (63.6%), for 660 yards (8.6 per att), 8 TDs, 0 INTs)

Running the ball has not been as effective, especially with Robinson. Of the 50 runs, 2 were end arounds and 1 was the Stanzi sneak from the Iowa 1 against Penn State. Robinson has run 40 times for just 151 yards (3.8 avg), with 5 10+ runs, but 13 for zero or negative yards and another 7 of one, two, or three yards. Thus, Iowa ends up in 2nd & 7 or longer half the time after a Robinson run. For the record, Hampton had 7 carries for 41 yards (5.9 avg) and 2 runs of one, two, or three yards with no lost yards.

I do not have a count of how many of those pass plays used play action, but I suspect heavy use. Thus, my novice point of view thinks that Iowa is so effective throwing it on 1st & 10 because the opponent is playing for the run, even though the run/pass split is just about even.

2nd Down

So, it seems that perhaps Iowa is not as conservative as the "Play Not to Lose" camp would like to believe - at least not on 1st down. However, if conservative = running the ball, which is generally how I have heard it used, then are they guilty as charged on 2nd down? Iowa has run 107 second down plays, calling 62 runs and 45 passes for a 57.9%/42.1% split. 2nd & 4 and shorter seem to be running downs as Iowa has run on 25 of 33 plays (75.8%). On 2nd & 5 or 2nd & 6, there is an even split of 10 runs and 10 passes. 2nd and long is fairly run heavy as well - in each of the yard situations of 2nd & 7 or longer (with the exception of 2nd & 10), Iowa has been slightly more likely to pass, but not overwhelmingly so, to the tune of 12 runs (40%) to 18 passes (18%). That includes 6 runs to 8 passes on 2nd and more than 10. However, my idea about 2nd & 10 being a running down was borne out - 15 runs (62.5%) to 9 passes (37.5%).

If you add everything together longer than 2nd & 4 it totals 37 runs and 37 passes.

Interesting note (at least to me): Iowa has run 16 plays on 2nd & 1, the most seen down-and-distance after 1st & 10 and 2nd & 10. They have run 12 times, while passing 4.

Conclusion: 2nd down is generally a running down, especially on 2nd and short. Anything longer than 2nd & 4 is essentially 50/50, although the scales tip slightly to a run on 2nd & 10 and a pass on 2nd and anything else.

3rd Down

My theory about lots of draw plays does not hold water. Perhaps it has been different in other years, but I think the calls for the most part show the faith in a 5th-year senior QB. The interesting thing that stood out to me on 3rd down is that anything longer than 3rd and 1 seems to be a passing down (small sample size alert).

60 3rd down plays: 20 run (33.3%), 40 pass (66.7%)

Iowa has faced 3rd and 1 14 times this year, and has run on all 14. That leaves just 6 runs with 40 passes for the rest of the 3rd down situations. Iowa has passed on both 3rd and 2 situations while running once and passing once on 3rd and 3. 3rd and 4 - 3rd and 9 have yielded 24 passes and just 2 runs. Even the 3rd and long situations, which always cause to me think "I bet we're running a draw here" have seen only 3 runs to 13 passes.

Conclusion: If its 3rd and 1, we're running. Otherwise, we're almost definitely throwing.

4th Down

Not much to see here. A pass on 4th and 2 against EIU, a Stanzi sneak against ISU on 4th and 1, and a pass play (that ended poorly) on 4th and a billion against Arizona.

All in all, it was a fun endeavor for the day that maybe gave me a little insight into the offensive playcalling. I had wanted to break it down further by field position, but I think this is long enough as is. As Ferentz always says, they strive for balance which often means running even when the other team expects it. However, as shown, they do open it up on 1st down quite a bit, and with a good deal of success.

If you made it this far, congratulations and my condolences.