FanPost

Chances of Iowa Big Ten Title (or: It's Getting Better All the Time)


To recap, two weeks ago we had, by my calcs, a 32% shot at the Rose Bowl.  After losing last week that dropped to a 14% chance, contingent on two and only two things happening:

THING #1 - Iowa must win out.

Odds of an Iowa win in each game (methodology below):
Ind-A, 100%
jNW-A, 92.5%
tOSU-H, 55%
MN-A, 100%

Chance of Iowa not losing any more games: 1.00 * 0.925 * 0.55 * 1.00 = 51% (up from 25% last week)

THING #2 - Wisconsin must lose at least once.

Odds of a Wisconsin win in each game:
Purdue-A, 87.5%
Ind-H, 100%
Mich-A, 57.5%
jNW-H, 87.5%

Chance of Wisconsin NOT LOSING any more games: 0.875 * 1.00 * 0.575 * 0.875 = 44%
Chance of Wisconsin LOSING AT LEAST ONCE: 1.00 - 0.44 = 56% ("up" from 55% last week)

ROSE BOWL CHANCES FOR IOWA
0.51 * 0.56 = 28%

Will try to flesh out other scenarios later this week - chances of us winning the title outright, chances of us sharing the title but not going to the Rose Bowl due to tie-breakers, etc.

Methodology notes: I'm taking team strengths from Sagarin's PREDICTOR.  Add 3 points to home team, compare strengths, that's your spread.  I'm assuming a spread of 0 means a 50/50 chance of either team winning, a spread of 20 or more means no chance of the underdog winning, and a linear distribution in between.  Those are not well-founded assumptions - especially the last one - and any thoughts you have on it are appreciated.

Sagarin PREDICTOR ratings (team, rating, change from last week):
tOSU    88.38    -0.08
Iowa    87.62    2.67
Ill    80.11    0.99
MSU    79.79    -2.08
Wisc    79.72    -0.68
PSU    73.9    1.55
Mich    73.88    0.07
jNW    67.68    -0.83
Ind    62.19    -0.46
Purdue    62.19    -0.45
MN    59.44    -1.35




Unless otherwise expressly indicated by BHGP editors, this FanPost is strictly the viewpoint of the author and is not endorsed by BHGP in any way.

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