To recap, two weeks ago we had, by my calcs, a 32% shot at the Rose Bowl. After losing last week that dropped to a 14% chance, contingent on two and only two things happening:
THING #1 - Iowa must win out.
Odds of an Iowa win in each game (methodology below):
Chance of Iowa not losing any more games: 1.00 * 0.925 * 0.55 * 1.00 = 51% (up from 25% last week)
THING #2 - Wisconsin must lose at least once.
Odds of a Wisconsin win in each game:
Chance of Wisconsin NOT LOSING any more games: 0.875 * 1.00 * 0.575 * 0.875 = 44%
Chance of Wisconsin LOSING AT LEAST ONCE: 1.00 - 0.44 = 56% ("up" from 55% last week)
ROSE BOWL CHANCES FOR IOWA
0.51 * 0.56 = 28%
Will try to flesh out other scenarios later this week - chances of us winning the title outright, chances of us sharing the title but not going to the Rose Bowl due to tie-breakers, etc.
Methodology notes: I'm taking team strengths from Sagarin's PREDICTOR. Add 3 points to home team, compare strengths, that's your spread. I'm assuming a spread of 0 means a 50/50 chance of either team winning, a spread of 20 or more means no chance of the underdog winning, and a linear distribution in between. Those are not well-founded assumptions - especially the last one - and any thoughts you have on it are appreciated.
Sagarin PREDICTOR ratings (team, rating, change from last week):
tOSU 88.38 -0.08
Iowa 87.62 2.67
Ill 80.11 0.99
MSU 79.79 -2.08
Wisc 79.72 -0.68
PSU 73.9 1.55
Mich 73.88 0.07
jNW 67.68 -0.83
Ind 62.19 -0.46
Purdue 62.19 -0.45
MN 59.44 -1.35