Michigan Preview: Demonstrating Dominance
by Adam Jacobi on Oct 16, 2010 6:01 AM CDT
in Iowa Hawkeyes Football
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PrintIt's Friday, which means it's time to preview tomorrow's game. We used to call this "There's A Game On Saturday?", but as it turns out, nobody googles that. So the boring title is your fault.
News, Notes, and News
There's three things I know right now, in ascending order of certainty: it's late, I smell like intercourse, and the Hawkeyes are going to win on Saturday. Lateness is a fairly subjective concept, I'm pretty sure every single reader can smell the interpersonal relationship I've just engaged in, and 3.5-point line be damned: Iowa has got this.
Iowa's two-deep is here. The only missing man is Jeff Tarpinian (more on him in a minute), and while losing a senior starter and seeing a true freshman enter the two-deep is never a good thing, it's worth mentioning that the last time Troy Johnson played a full game in Tarp's stead, he earned Big Ten DPOTW.
On Michigan's side, the only "new" injuries of note are wideout Martavious Odoms and tailback Fitzgerald Toussaint. Neither player is a game-changer, but at least Odoms has a history of productivity, while Toussaint's absence effectively changes nothing about Michigan's offense.
The game is at 2:30 CT on ABC or ESPN, and it's the second-best game of that timeslot. Auburn-Arkansas is your top contender, but honestly, do you really think Nebraska-Texas is going to be more worth watching than Iowa-Michigan? I don't.
Keys to the Game
As has been mentioned before, Iowa's defense has to succeed where multiple mediocre defenses have failed in containing Denard Robinson. This would be a more nebulous concept had Michigan State not bottled up the electric sophomore just the week prior in the Spartans' 34-17 victory, so any cries that "it just can't be done" carry significantly less weight than they would have eight days ago.
That said, Iowa's offense also has a habit of making itself look good against plainly inferior competition, and as Illinois proved just last week, that includes hapless Penn State. Fortunately, there's no evidence to suggest that Michigan's defense is demonstrably better than the units Iowa has faced so far, and in case that fact deserves any scrutiny, may we remind people that Iowa Touchdowns For Kids has already earned over $10,000 for children on the season? 23 touchdowns in five games. That pace will slow, but Michigan's defense isn't exactly known for slowing the pace of opposing offenses.
In fact, I think the key of this ballgame is how Iowa's wide receivers--one of the best corps in the conference--play against Michigan's very green secondary. There isn't a single Wolverine that we trust in coverage over who they'lll face on Iowa, so this game will be an effective bellwether on whether Ricky Stanzi's good enough to abuse lousy coverage or if he's just another rocket-armed average college QB (personally, I think it's the former, but the onus is on Stanzi here).
I think Iowa's passing game succeeds in a big way this week. Stanzi victimized Michigan's back seven during the last 55 minutes of play last year, and he's made a bigger stride in experience than Michigan's secondary has in the 12 intervening months. It would be surprising if Stanzi struggled significantly against this Wolverine defense.
Moreover, as Morehouse reported on Friday, Jeff Tarpinian is making the trip to Ann Arbor. That, of course, doesn't necessarily mean The Shark will start instead of sitting on the sidelines and biting a towel, but if he can go, then there really aren't any injury issues unless we want to rehash the fact that Jewel Hampton's ACLs are merely theoretical. Past that, Iowa's essentially at full strength. There are no prefab excuses, then, if Michigan somehow blows Iowa off the ball.
Predictions
I picked 38-27, and it would be stupid not to stick with this idea. I don't see much on the Michigan defense that'll keep Iowa from moving the ball between the 20s, and I see just as little to keep Iowa from turning Red Zone possessions into touchdowns.
Iowa has a talent advantage on the edges with Marvin McNutt and Derrell Johnson-Koulianos on the edges, but it seems like the Hawkeyes hold just as much of a tactical advantage with Ken O'Keefe's ability to scheme the Michigan linebackers straight out of the play on multiple occasions. Expect Ricky Stanzi to top 300 yards before Adam Robinson breaks the 100-yard barrier, but if the opposite happens, so much the better, because that just means Iowa can run the ball with ease on Michigan's defense too.
Meanwhile, everyone's itching to see Denard Robinson vs. Iowa's defense, and if it hadn't been for last week's game betwen Michigan and MSU, that matchup would be even sexier today. But Michigan State demonstrated how to slow down Michigan's offense more than Michigan's defense can slow down Typical Big Ten Offense, and the Spartans were talented enough to put the game out of reach before the third quarter was over. I like MSU's offense more than Iowa's (sorry, but it's the ground game talking), so I don't think Iowa coasts for more than 10 minutes of the game, but I really don't see Michigan winning this one.
Now I gotta get some more clothes on and go to bed.
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Ewwwwwwww! Intercourse!
Seriously, I always pictured Jacobi, if I can quote Mike Tyson (AND I WILL!), wanting:
“…a strong woman I can dominate sexually.”
And at the end screaming, “OOPS! POW! SUPRIIIIIISE!”
I will haunt your dreams and eat your children.
by Dr. Hawk on Oct 16, 2010 7:37 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
So you've spent a lot of time thinking about AJ's sex life . . .
alrightythen.
by The Final Gun on Oct 16, 2010 7:48 AM CDT up reply actions
/rubbing cocoa butter all over myself
/eating the rest of it
Ceci n'est pas un blogue.
by Adam Jacobi on Oct 16, 2010 10:54 AM CDT up reply actions
Don't apologize, Oops Pow Jacobi
If you gotta smell, might as well smell like good lovin.
Excuse me for my bellicosity. And spelling. Bellicosity and spelling.
by Blackheartnopants on Oct 16, 2010 7:19 AM CDT reply actions
I was hoping he was talking about the stench of Intercourse, PA.
Continued reading dashed this hope.
Less memorable than Sam Okey's Hawkeye career.
by Kyle McCann't on Oct 16, 2010 11:00 AM CDT up reply actions
I have been to intercourse PA. it smelled like fish for some reason
TOUCHDOWN IOWA! TOUCHDOWN IOWA! - Gary Dolphin
I LOVE IT! I LOVE IT! I LOVE IT! - Jim Zabel
I'm still worried
Michigan’s defense isn’t that good, to be fair, but their numbers don’t reflect their quality. They’ve been on the field a lot because the offense has scored so quickly. We’re going to have to be sharp against them.
And the MLB is key to containing Robinson, and having Tarp out is just eating at me.
Listen to how many times Angerer’s name is called here…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tNroKSrqG8Y
Brunettes not fighter jets
A little worry is warranted.
We will have to be sharp on offense. Even bad teams can intercept stupid passes, and we’re not so good that we can spot any team free points without the risk of it biting us in the ass.
I don’t know that a good MLB is really the key to containing Robinson. It all starts with D-Line play, I think. If they allow penetration (heh) by ALL the LBs, then we’ll be able to stop Denard at or near the LOS. If not, well, I don’t think Tarpinian nets us a TON more than Johnson here. Johnson’s a good MLB.. Admittedly, with PSU’s unmasking (or Illinois’ crowning) of last week, I’m not sure whether we had the best measure of Johnson’s performance, but he doesn’t have to be a hero, just play assignment football is tackle with discipline. Our coaching staff will have been drilling this into his head all week.
by The Final Gun on Oct 16, 2010 7:54 AM CDT up reply actions
Yes to this
UM had offensive success last week when its linemen could get hands on the MSU D-line. Sparty was able to adjust. Michigan could not. Clayborn and Co. are a bitch to block and will disrupt the flow of play from the first snap.
Otherwise, a winning defensive formula is much the blueprint for Ga. Tech: Stick to your assigments, make your tackles count and understand that this offense will make plays. Keep a level head, maybe sprinkle in a few timely blitzes and, baby, you’ve got yourself a stew going.
As for offense: If the defense gets shot locked down I could really see a repeat of the Penn State game ~ basic execution and play for field position.
Excuse me for my bellicosity. And spelling. Bellicosity and spelling.
by Blackheartnopants on Oct 16, 2010 8:08 AM CDT up reply actions
I'm fine with basic execution and play for field position.
Hell, it’s what football at Iowa is all about. But Michigan can snap up points a lot quicker than PSU has shown itself capable of doing. A 15 point lead vs. Michigan is hardly as “safe” as a 15 point lead against PSU (or most other teams in the Big Ten).
by The Final Gun on Oct 16, 2010 8:14 AM CDT up reply actions
I think field position is Kirk's default setting
It’s that NFL training he got at the University of Belichick.
Hell. I don’t care how we win. FU safety? Fine. Hayden Fry exotics? Good by me. Stretch plays and rollouts? I’ll take it.
Excuse me for my bellicosity. And spelling. Bellicosity and spelling.
by Blackheartnopants on Oct 16, 2010 8:25 AM CDT up reply actions
Troy Johnson - 13 tackles
With the assist by Hunter, who also had 13 tackles.
Brunettes not fighter jets
In my few months reading this site
this is the first time that I started laughing out loud. I thought the opening line was so funny that I had to show it to my wife. She was not entertained.
"If you're easily offended, we thank you for stopping by but ask that you turn your browser elsewhere." -- BHGP Disclaimer
by SaturdayMorningKegStanzis on Oct 16, 2010 7:26 AM CDT reply actions
If I'm GERG, I take away the pass and force Iowa to prove they can run against a good D-Line.
They can only stop one thing, if that, so they have to choose. They have a better chance of stopping our run game than their secondary has of turning into a DI secondary. So I’d overplay the pass and hope that Stanzi reverts.
On the other side of the ball I think they’ll install a new play sequence for Denard that they didn’t use last week. I can’t believe that this kid can continue to get hit 30-40 times a game, but in retrospect, even MSU never seemed to get a good clean shot at him.
In one sense, my uncertainty about this game rivals that of the Wisconsin game two years ago. Then we crushed Wisconsin and Shonn did things that made you go, Wow. Perhaps the D-Line will make that announcement today. But somebody is going to have to have a hand on Denard before he is in his fourth stride.
This is the most important coin toss of the year. We have to get the ball first and score.
Mr. Boh Knows ...
You've shown you know way more about football than me, but I was thinking just the opposite.
I load up the box and let the passes go. Sure, Michigan’s secondary is more like a tertiary, but Stanzi has off days where he overthrows receivers all day (fewer this year, thank God) and DJK and McNutt have proven capable of dropping passes that they should have caught. Maybe Michigan thinks they can win more straight-up, but in Michigan’s shoes, I would consider taking a gamble in hopes of equalizing the talent deficit between Iowa-Offense and Michigan-Defense. Pray for dropped balls and missed passes and take away Iowa’s ability to grind away the clock by loading up the box. When Iowa beats Michigan deep, count on your (still very good offense) to be able to answer. Besides, Michigans Def-Coordinator should know that, even if he consistently has 8 in the box, Iowa is still going to run a couple times per series. Make KOK prove that he’s willing to pass >%66 of the downs before you drop more guys back into coverage. I think Michigan should be hoping for a lot of series that go:
1) 6 yard completion
2) 2 yard run
3) incomplete pass
4) punt
by The Final Gun on Oct 16, 2010 9:03 AM CDT up reply actions
There is a magic switch that gets tripped with some KOK senior quarterbacks and they wind up with 30 TD passes and a small handful of picks, and there are clues that this circuit is now closed with Stanzi.
We’ll know for sure after this game.
What reasonable person would have predicted Brad Banks’ and Nathan Chandler’s senior seasons? And they were clearly “system QBs”: they lacked NFL ability, whereas Ricky seems to be on track for a Max Hall/Sage Rosenfels career at minimum. If I’m right, Ricky finishes 2010 with something like 25-30 TDs and 7 or 8 picks. He should throw for 4 or 5 today, if this theory is valid, and he has 14 TDs at the halfway point.
The clues, the common tics and traits of an Iowa QB ‘getting’ the system:
1. willingness to take money off the table, instead of playing for the pot every hand. This means, most obviously, the QB runs for seven or eight when no one is open. Stanzi is doing much more of that this year.
2. checking out of the run call and going vertical. It is not possible to get numbers on the Iowa rungame POA and defend two or three guys on vertical routes. The vertical is our rungame constraint play. You just can’t get numbers on both plays simultaneously, and the QB has to read his safeties.
3. very crisp tempo, with the QB and the staff getting the play in quickly, called quickly, maybe audibilized quickly, repeat cycle. We have had great tempo this year.
If this premise is correct, the sharply reduced interception rate (1 legit in 121 throws nearly half-way through the year) is merely a correllation, not the cause, of Stanzi’s elevated game.
The psychodrama that was Drew, in my view, is not a negative case disproving this theory of the KOK ‘system QB’. He was a system QB the day he walked into the film room; all the chatter was that he knew what was going on as a frosh. Sophomore year: Extra Strength AIRBHG action. Tait: still does well. Junior year: internal team chaos, fat cats, Ferentz having his mid-life coaching-career crisis, Iowa perfects the drive killing dropped pass. Senior year: Tait’s emotionalism feeding weird team dynamics, some off-field stuff no one knows about here, receivers still play volleyball with passes six-seven times a game, Tait heaves a hay bale in Solon and can’t get out of bed without a shot.
I think the Michigan coaches look at Stanzi and see relaxed precision, improvement in his checkdowns, a willingness to take off running if teams drop 7 or 8, incremental progress on the O-Line letting some very long post routes by McNutt, and conclude (with visions of Cam Gordon pummeling their cerebral cortex): “our D-Line and LBs are way better than our deep four, and Ricky will carve us up for 400 if we don’t stop him first.” Stanzi and the receivers, not ARob and the O-Line, are producing next spring’s draft picks. They’re the strength of Iowa and their counterparts aren’t good enough to start for UNI or NDSU.
The most important Iowa play, in this game, if you ask me, is Stanzi’s read of the safeties. I just see no way out for that deep four. They’re that hood’s head, in Joey Pesci’s vice, in Casino. They’re not getting out of this one alive.
One of the new sabre-football sites, Football Outsiders, incidentally, says the Iowa O is the fourth best in the country, trailing only Alabama, Stanford and Auburn. No clue if their algorithm proves out in real backtesting, but I assume it does:
So, if half of this BS is true, we put up 50 on these guys. I think we pass-to-run here, and the whole game rests on whether or not somebody can pop/detour Denard before he hits the LOS. Our one clear strength on offense is Ricky and the Receivers.
Mr. Boh Knows ...
I am a fan of that metric
Because I think it is about efficiency which I believe defines this offense this year. Even against Arizona there was only one offensive turnover in terrible circumstances. Stanzi’s pick vs. PSU might have well have been a punt. I totally agree with you that Stanzi understands the offense and kudos to you on the observation on the playclock. I have been tracking it but hadn’t got around to really looking at what it meant.
Can teams start laying down for the Braves, so Bobby Cox can go out in normal fashion.... losing in the NLCS?
Great response, and like I said, you think about this on a deeper level than me . . .
My only hesitation is that I’m worried that Iowa’s O hasn’t really faced a great test yet this year. I don’t know if today is the day, either. I felt better about our performance against ISU, PSU, and Arizona before last week, but now I’m wondering if we’ve been beating up weak opposition.
Obviously this isn’t a big concern for this week, but I’m looking forward to Stanzi demonstrating the marked improvement we’ve seen thus far this season against higher-level opponents as we move forward.
by The Final Gun on Oct 16, 2010 10:12 AM CDT up reply actions
I think the O-line faces the number one defense (in my mind)
Each and every week… at practice…. It’s the only thing I can think of that is causing them to gel so quickly…
Another way I think about it is this:
1. So you stack the box. What does that do? It drives Iowa to attack your weakest element, your pass defense.
2. Net effect: we play action out of the run-look and incinerate Michigan’s DIAA DIIIntramural Flag Football Association secondary.
3. Thanks! we say, while our receivers suck oxygen and say, “Again?” before running back onto the field after another 3-and-out.
Really, this game is about Denard’s third or fourth step. He has to be under wraps, before that.
Mr. Boh Knows ...
One of the FO bloggers, however, agrees with you and says Iowa will just run them out of the stadium.
His conclusion seems weird given that he points out that Stanzi is #3 in pass efficiency and #2 in YPA.
I don’t see it, and I don’t think the numbers support it, but maybe the rationale is we don’t want to complete 37 passes for an average 12 ypa, because the clock will stop too often while we’re rolling up 40 first downs.
Mr. Boh Knows ...
I also have the concern about over-using A-Rob
KF still talks like there is not a worthy second back yet (which nontheless may miraculously change over the past three days) and that back in the day, Russell did it by himself, but I really don’t want more than 25 carries out of him. We must first focus on winning today, but the simple fact is that we are in the most physical three game stretch of the season. We need A-Rob each week. Iowa’s tendency is to use two, and GERG may indeed load up pass defense to make us run when we would rather not.
Our D-line has to get in the backfield but also play smart. If memory serves, Dennard made some of those guys miss last year, the only point at which Michigan looked any good. If he gets past them, and he probably will a handful of times, that’s when I’m worried.
I looked over the “every play” of MSU’s offense liked by somebody here, and frankly, Michigan’s pass rush had some strong moments. Since I think Stanzi is still a little in “safety first” mode, we need to see some growth from the line. My eyes don’t see fourth in the nation.
We SHOULD win this game. But we should have won last year far more easily than we did.
In Norm we trust.
If I'm GERG, in public I wear a paper back over my head in shame.
"Oh no, don't do that, don't do that. If you shoot him, you'll just make him mad." - The Waco Kid
*BAG*
Damn it’s early. Gimme another beer.
"Oh no, don't do that, don't do that. If you shoot him, you'll just make him mad." - The Waco Kid
I don't know why...
But when I first read your comment I thought it was going to be in line with that old joke where the captain says ‘Bring me my brown pants!’
My prediction?
PAIN.
Seriously, I think we’re going to hurt Robinson badly.
Look Jacobi, I don't need to hear about your porn habits (this is the internet, so you're clearly a 68 year old grandmother- - but I'm a transgendered 8 year old from Laos, so what do I know)...
…and if you don’t get quality sleep I’m going to blame you for anything bad that happens today: if I break a shoelace, it’s because you chose sex over rest; if I drop a beer, it’s your fault; if a meteor destroys my car- – looks out window- – DAMMIT JOCOBI YOU OWE ME A NEW CAR!!!
[Six in the morning… shit!… I haven’t done that since… oh yeah… since I got married… hmmm]
by Eyeheartfreedumb on Oct 16, 2010 10:51 AM CDT reply actions
Technically, I wrote this at like 2.
Ceci n'est pas un blogue.
by Adam Jacobi on Oct 16, 2010 10:55 AM CDT up reply actions
I really wish you wouldn't have said you were naked
now all I can picture in my mind is a scene of you rubbing your testies on your computer screen for some reason.
/gouges my eyes
TOUCHDOWN IOWA! TOUCHDOWN IOWA! - Gary Dolphin
I LOVE IT! I LOVE IT! I LOVE IT! - Jim Zabel
Contrast
“seeing a true freshman enter the two-deep is never a good thing,”
Meanwhile UM has around 10-20 true freshman on their 2-deeps.
Which is why I’m ostrich hide head in sand about this game. If your hawkeyes(probably my second fav team in BX(until nebraska joins sorry)), come out and play and UM doesn’t have a chance.
If Michigan plays perfect and Iowa doesn’t though then it’s a game and could be an upset. Usually Michigan has made 1-10 mistakes a game though thus far.
All anyone needs to know about this game
is that i’m drunk in ann arbor.
by SallyMason on Oct 16, 2010 12:13 PM CDT via mobile reply actions
I have something like four friends who are drunk in Ann Arbor.
What a skank.
I'm gonna give her my "D" face. Deeeee, deeee, deeee!
---Norm Parker
Speaking of ACL's, did you guys hear that Robbie Hummel tore the same one he tore last February?
In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).
Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.
Iowa D vs. Mich O
Come on people. This game is a no-brainer. The last dynamic option team the Hawkeyes faced was Georgia Tech and we all know the outcome of that one, and Ga. Tech was a much better team than this Mich team. What stood out in that game was the ease with which the Iowa D line penetrated. They did that against the ACC championship O line. Besides, out of respect for the ability of the Mich O to score, KF and KOK will want to score a lot of points, just to be on the safe side. This one will be a laugher. Give the 3 1/2 and relax.
38-28
Jacobi was way off with his 38-27 call
I spent half my life's earnings on wine, women & song. The other half I wasted.
by therealCatnuts on Oct 17, 2010 9:53 AM CDT via mobile reply actions
What a dope.
"I want to be a cowboy. I don't want to be a panda. Pandas are boring, stupid and boring. Bad panda!"
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