The Big Ten Betting Extravaganza: Week 5
by Hayden Fry's Moustache Ride on Oct 1, 2010 10:00 AM CDT
in Iowa Hawkeyes Football
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PrintFirst off, let's go to Ham Porter with a quick review on last week's performance:
What he said
But you know what? It's not your fault. Let's blame justfuckingNorthwestern. I hate them already and if you're a true Hawkeye/American/Human you should hate them too. At any rate, we've had a rough start to the season. We have the same record as Minnesota, except we haven't been playing FCS teams.
I have to be honest, I was considering taking an opposite-sies approach this week. However, I think you're all starting to get the hang of it and are ready start kicking some ass. Put your rally caps on, it's time to get back in the game.
Here comes this weeks grid.......and remember, there's no 'i' in "vote for the team that doesn't goddam lose." Mostly home dogs this time around:
You got the grid, now here comes the poll. Choose wisely. Or else. Yeah, you heard me. Or else nothing.
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I voted Michigan vs. Indiana over 65.5
MIchigan scores 40 minimum on Indiana’s abortionally bad defense, and Indiana has a good QB and Michigan has a terrible pass defense.
I like this one too
I’m thinking something like a 45-44 final.
by Hawkeye Bench on Oct 1, 2010 10:16 AM CDT up reply actions
Yes, this.
I could easily see something like a 45-31 Michigan win, which would cover with ease.
Also, betting the under sucks. Who wants to root AGAINST scoring?
"I want to be a cowboy. I don't want to be a panda. Pandas are boring, stupid and boring. Bad panda!"
I think the score will be even higher than that.
Michigan’s already porous D is missing even more players and the IU D is worse than we think. This could easily get over 100.
Less memorable than Sam Okey's Hawkeye career.
by Kyle McCann't on Oct 1, 2010 11:18 AM CDT up reply actions
yep
highest combined score..in conference for the entire season
"He was the one that didn't give us a touchdown, ... He didn't officiate for us again." ...Hayden Fry
by chuck longs mom on Oct 1, 2010 12:47 PM CDT up reply actions
I want to see them try and match that infamous Michigan-jNW game from a decade ago.
What was that, 51-48? And that was without any OT.
"I want to be a cowboy. I don't want to be a panda. Pandas are boring, stupid and boring. Bad panda!"
I'd take the over too
But I would point out that Michigan’s D isn’t missing any more than they were last week — instead they actually should be getting Herron and Carvin Johnson back this week. Herron being back lets them play Roh on the line more often, which should help their QB pressure when they’re only rushing 3 or 4 — Roh is much better as a pass rusher than the Banks/Sagesse platoon.
I concur with Loretta8 that Michigan scores at least 40, unless they screw it up on their own (penalties and turnovers). IU is in the bottom 20 in yards per carry against despite awful competition. Michigan is the #2 rushing offense (#3 by yards per carry). And while IU’s pass D is around 40th in efficiency, again, consider the competition, while Michigan is #11 in pass efficiency on offense.
Basically, if you think IU’s passing game can put up 25 points, take the over. Personally, I think the brothers Hagerup will have a pleasant day of watching football; it will be somewhat surprising if they see the field a combined 5 times.
by Yinka Double Dare on Oct 1, 2010 1:33 PM CDT up reply actions
My math on the o/u
The over is something like a 35-31 game. As many points as these offenses are scoring and as horrible as their defenses are (particularly Michigan’s) at least one of these teams will be in the 40’s.
by Abbas_Cincinnatus on Oct 1, 2010 10:31 AM CDT up reply actions
Gotta bet the over on this game
I think this is the safest bet of the weekend. Yes, I like Wiscy -2, and jNWU -5.5, even Ohio State at -17, but the spread has repeatedly fucked me this year. That is why I put my weekly money on the over in the Michigan/Indiana game.
They took the bar, the whole fucking bar!
by recoveringfratguy on Oct 1, 2010 10:55 AM CDT up reply actions
I should expand on that
Vegas is not in the business of losing money…what percentage of Joe Q Public is going to look at that game and think…hmmm…I think I’m going to bet the under?
I agree…it’s two terrible defenses…and Indiana’s weakness is run defense making that O look especially juicy…I am just wary of lines like that. It could end up being over…but I’m pretty sure by the end of the season we’ll all start to realize that what looks too good to be true is in the case of Vegas.
I voted for this, too
I would not be at all shocked if there were 100 points scored in that game. Are you saying 60-42 isn’t a believable score?
I don’t understand how this is only 3rd in the voting.
IIRC, the Iowa under is one of the better bets in CFB.
If I’m wrong, then I think it’ll be true this week, at least. I nearly took Indiana, though, and I’ve no justification outside of MIchigan’s disgustingly bad secondary.
You people are actually picking NW instead of Ohio State?
Seriously?
I blame the students for stink bugs, Iowa, and Ishtar.
Beat Iowa.
You could not be more correct about this
Lest we forget, Minnesota had a 2nd half (if memory serves me) lead on USC. They suck, but approaching decency is not beyond them. Northwestern may have had as good a start as could reasonably be expected, but they are still rebuilding.
Ohio State – Miami (a team a bit better than Illinois) was like PSU – Temple: a game the fanbase was far more worried about than they should’ve been, a game completely statistically dominated by the eventual winner, and won by more than a TD. OSU beat Miami by 13, and is only favored by 17 against Illinois? Please. Easiest pick of the week.
Can you feel a little love? Dream on; dream on
Why are people voting for jNW?
Seriously, have they shown the ability to cover at all this year?
"I shoot, I score. He shoots, I score." - Dan Gable
by ClaybornSmash on Oct 1, 2010 3:42 PM CDT up reply actions
Because it's Minnesota
There is no level of fail that they can’t reach
It never gets to be easy
by chitownhawkeye on Oct 1, 2010 4:02 PM CDT up reply actions
Minnesota's defense
consists of 11 giggly teenagers who slap ineffectively at the opposing team on their way to the endzone.
Let’s look at their record…
They beat MTSU by a touchdown
They lost to FCS South Dakota, giving up 41 points
They lost to an apparently reeling USC by enough to beat the spread, but still.
They lost to Northern Illinois, giving up 34 points.
Now look at Northwestern
Beat Vanderbilt by 2
Beat Illinois State by 34
Beat rice by 17
Beat Central Michigan by 5
Persa:
80% completion
8 TDs, 1 INT
There’s no sure thing in football, but Northwestern over Minnesota by at least a touchdown is pretty close.
Brunettes not fighter jets
the problem with Northwestern here
is that they have no running game, and MInnesota’s biggest weakness is rush defense. also Northwestern’s secondary is suspect and Minnesota has an ok QB and some decent receivers.
NU tradtionally plays down to the level of their competition, wouldn’t shock me if they lost this game.
I think there's probably a few decent bets in there.
jNWU -5.5 at Kinnick North is probably a pretty good one. The Cats are pretty efficient on offense to this point and Minnesoooota is fucking horrible.
Also, tOSU -17 at Illinois seems safe. I don’t know if Illinois is even going to score against the Buckeyes.
I like the under in the Wisky/MSU game and the over in Indiana/Michigan.
I would stay far, far away from any bets involving Iowa this weekend.
by Abbas_Cincinnatus on Oct 1, 2010 10:26 AM CDT reply actions
I don't know how jNWU doesn't win by 2 field goals at least
that’s my pick – jNWU -5.5
by HeroPatriotStanzi on Oct 1, 2010 10:47 AM CDT up reply actions
Agreed
Although with a game involving two entities that hate us (jNW and Brewster) I don’t know.
by SaturdayMorningKegStanzis on Oct 1, 2010 10:50 AM CDT up reply actions
Key problem with betting anything in the jNW-Minny game...
Do we really want to rely on two entities that we despise — and that despise us — to come through for us?
"I want to be a cowboy. I don't want to be a panda. Pandas are boring, stupid and boring. Bad panda!"
Objectively
I think Iowa is the best bet, giving 7. But I can’t bet an Iowa game. Just can’t . So, I think the next best is the over on Michigan-Indiana.
In Norm we trust.
I can't even fathom that.
Wisconsin has been underperforming against everyone not named Austin Peay State. I have no idea what that is.
I blame the students for stink bugs, Iowa, and Ishtar.
Beat Iowa.
by ReadingRambler on Oct 1, 2010 11:09 AM CDT up reply actions
on that note
I can’t wait for tomorrow so we can actually start to figure out what teams really are this year. I don’t feel like i know anything more about our team than a month ago.
by SaturdayMorningKegStanzis on Oct 1, 2010 11:15 AM CDT up reply actions
I know we have fewer running backs.
And I know Mike Daniels is a goddamn beast.
"I want to be a cowboy. I don't want to be a panda. Pandas are boring, stupid and boring. Bad panda!"
Which is why Daniels will start at RB tomorrow...
Less memorable than Sam Okey's Hawkeye career.
by Kyle McCann't on Oct 1, 2010 11:20 AM CDT up reply actions
BEAST MODE: ENGAGED.
I would not want to be the guy tasked with tackling him.
"I want to be a cowboy. I don't want to be a panda. Pandas are boring, stupid and boring. Bad panda!"
We'd probably assign Devon Smith to tackle him
5’6" 160.
Our defense can still grow to become excellent.
I was thinking
you could use him on punt protection. (unless, maybe, his is the punter?) I have seen PSU do something like that recently.
My lord, where does such a man play in modern Div-1 college football? A kicker, I presume?
In Norm we trust.
You'll actually hopefully have some opportunity to break him
He’s a punt returner. And wide receiver. An indoor 60 yard champion or something, too.
Our defense can still grow to become excellent.
Just to be safe
Should we just start referring to him as DT/RB #93? AIRBHG hasn’t eaten in two weeks…
He embiggened that role with his cromulent performance.
by lo-hi-hawkeye on Oct 1, 2010 2:54 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Shut up, shut up, shut up.... look AIRBHG shiney things... take MY knee instead...
[Though maybe Daniels hasn’t eaten any tendon deities in a couple weeks either.]
by Eyeheartfreedumb on Oct 1, 2010 4:05 PM CDT up reply actions
Its kind of like Chick Pea Soup
but different.
Wouldn't touch that game
I have no idea what to think of Wisco, and Sparty is, well, Sparty. But with Dantonio back.
In Norm we trust.
I've seen Wisconsin in person.
If MSU is close to as good as Arizona State then Wisco will struggle.
Less memorable than Sam Okey's Hawkeye career.
by Kyle McCann't on Oct 1, 2010 11:19 AM CDT up reply actions
This.
How does anyone feel like they have a clear understanding of what’s going to happen in this game? Yes, Wisky pounded Austin Peay into a fine powder without breaking a sweat*, but they’re Austin Peay. The Badgers underperformed in dramatic fashion against UNLV, San Jose State and Arizona State. To say that they’re suddenly going to play great football because the level of competition suddenly improved seems kind of delusional to me.
Michigan State, OTOH, is much better on offense than I would have anticipated. Their running game is scary and I think Cousins may have the best mechanics in the Big Tweleven. The weakness on this team seems to be the defense. They let Notre Dame move the ball better than they should have in the second half. But when Greg Jones is your MLB and the defense is your weak link, that bodes well for your chances in league play.
Anyone that thinks that this is clearly a Wisky win spent too much time reading the preseason publications and not enough time watching what has actually happened on the field this year.
*this is a figure of speech. Half of their team is 340 lbs and breaks a sweat walking to the fridge in the middle of the night.
by Abbas_Cincinnatus on Oct 1, 2010 12:41 PM CDT up reply actions
agreed..
would have liked to take the under in this game
"He was the one that didn't give us a touchdown, ... He didn't officiate for us again." ...Hayden Fry
by chuck longs mom on Oct 1, 2010 12:49 PM CDT up reply actions
4 things:
1) As a group, we obviously suck at this unless it’s a fuck you HFMR conspiracy.
2) You can’t possibly consider betting jNW again after what they did to you last week. However, this theory is why I’m shitty at betting.
3) I could never bet on Iowa.
4) Take the over on Michigan-Indiana.
I never bet on or against Iowa, either.
Less memorable than Sam Okey's Hawkeye career.
by Kyle McCann't on Oct 1, 2010 11:20 AM CDT up reply actions
I think the last time I was sorely tempted was against the Smelley Cocks in the Outback Bowl.
Because I was utterly convinced we would piss-pound them. Which, hey, is exactly what happened.
"I want to be a cowboy. I don't want to be a panda. Pandas are boring, stupid and boring. Bad panda!"
Same here.
I usually take it slow when drinking with an early kickoff, but I tore into a six-pack right when I woke up because I knew there was no chance of being a sad/angry drunk that day.
Less memorable than Sam Okey's Hawkeye career.
by Kyle McCann't on Oct 1, 2010 11:28 AM CDT up reply actions
I've bet on Iowa just a handful of times, and only when they are dogs
Last year:
1) +17 versus OSU
2) +10 versus Penn State
3) +4 versus Georgia Tech
I had a good thing going, but then I took them at +1 versus Arizona.
No self-respecting man from Iowa goes anywhere without beer
by Hayden Fry's Moustache Ride on Oct 1, 2010 12:16 PM CDT up reply actions
So it was YOUR fault...
Less memorable than Sam Okey's Hawkeye career.
by Kyle McCann't on Oct 1, 2010 1:16 PM CDT up reply actions
The way this year is going
Northwestern will win by 5, failing to cover the spread.
Wisconsin will be dominant but somehow only have a FG lead at the end of the 4th quarter. They will take an eff you safety for a 1 point victory, failing to cover the spread.
Ohio State will score 3 TD’s in the first half, but Illinois will return the ensuing kickoffs for TD’s in each case. Illinois’ offense is shut down and only gets only 3 first downs. OSU manages to score 3 more TD’s in the second half and only gives up TD’s on 1 of the 3 returns. Final score, 42-28. OSU fails to cover, just like they did on kickoffs all day.
Michigan scores 6 TD’s before Robinson goes down. Again. They don’t score again. Indiana scores 5 TDs, but 2 are overturned by replay on horrendous calls (not sure what the replay official was looking at). Forcier takes over on downs on one of those drives and twists his ankle, going down for a safety. Final score 42-23, 65 points (under 65.5), Michigan covers.
And last but not least:
Iowa will be ahead 23 to 0 at half (3 td’s and a safety from AC), but PSU will score 6 FG’s in the second half to pull within 5. All FG’s are longer than 45 yards because they never make it to the Red Zone. They will have the ball with a chance to win, but move backwards on each of the final 4 plays. Final score 23-18 (fail to cover spread, over 40.5 points)
Bottom line, ALL of the picks above that have over 5% of the vote will be losers. Barely. Just like 3 of the first 4 weeks. Lane Kiffen wants a word with Robinson about the ND game ‘cause he was supposed to go down- he isn’t supposed to win the Heisman until NEXT year.
by KinnickNorthHawk on Oct 1, 2010 11:46 AM CDT reply actions
Herpes below...
KOK, you might be a genius...
by hawkeye_heartattack on Oct 1, 2010 12:04 PM CDT up reply actions
jNW
This is way off topic and I’ll understand if a shitstorm of grief is rained on me for asking, but what’s the origin of the ‘just’ in front of Northwestern?
Thank you. Go Hawks.
by Settles'7thYearOfEligibility on Oct 1, 2010 11:53 AM CDT reply actions
Well, you've separated them. Nicely done.
Now if someone will do the same for my post above…
by KinnickNorthHawk on Oct 1, 2010 12:03 PM CDT up reply actions
What does BHGP have against teasers?
I say we tease the fuck out of the Michigan spread and the over. (Mich -5 over 59.5)
I saw we tease the fuck out of the OSU game and jNWU game. (OSU -10 jNW +.5)
And if I was one of those jinxing, souless fucks that bet on Iowa I’d tease the bejesus out of that too. (Iowa EVEN and under 47.5)
Probably wouldn’t go wrong teasing hated Purdue down to +14.5 against BYE either.
im made a few teasers bets in my day
but when youre doing a public poll, there are hundreds of possible teasers, so makes sense to just to spread and over/under
Be careful betting against Minnesota.
It’s not that we’ll win, it’s that we’ll fuck you on the spread. You all saw what happened with that low hanging fruit against USC, right?
Everyone fails. The successful learn from their failures. I just wish we'd quit giving ourselves so many learning opportunities.
by WhiteSpeedReceiver on Oct 1, 2010 1:12 PM CDT reply actions
I'm fool enough to think
that if someone Go Persa hard, Minny could actually win. They have to be playing for respect now.
In Norm we trust.
I chose Minny to cover
and I actually like them to win outright. No real reason to it, just a hunch. It’s not like NW is some juggernaut that can just roll through road games without breaking a sweat.
by Brock Sampson on Oct 1, 2010 3:08 PM CDT up reply actions
we voted for the
Fighting Fails Zookers
Illinois +17 versus Ohio State
this place smells like feet. i’ll bring a can of lysol next week.
Fuck the poll...
listen to me. Indiana +11….it prints money against that weak ass Michigan D.
Michigan vs. Indiana over
losing steam in the poll, too bad
Can't believe Michigan/Indiana over is losing
Seems (to me) to be the easiest money on the whole board.
It’s just that the OSU-Illinois line is so easy.
I blame the students for stink bugs, Iowa, and Ishtar.
Beat Iowa.
by ReadingRambler on Oct 2, 2010 10:23 AM CDT up reply actions
Homerism FTW!
"I want to be a cowboy. I don't want to be a panda. Pandas are boring, stupid and boring. Bad panda!"
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