BlogpLOL Week 1: Purity of Thought
by Hawkeye State on Sep 8, 2009 11:00 AM CDT
42 comments
This ballot is totally getting spiked.
There is a purity of thought to self-professed "resume rankers," those who allegedly throw out their preconceived notions of how the season should play out and base their rankings on how it actually has played out. Given the effect preseason rankings have on the other polls, the idea of tossing those rankings by the wayside as soon as the ball is snapped and ranking teams solely on how impressive they are on the field holds a certain undeniable quality of intellectual superiority.
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| Rank | Team | Delta |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Air Force | |
| 2 | Tennessee | |
| 3 | Southern Cal |  2 |
| 4 | Arkansas State | |
| 5 | Nebraska | 12 |
| 6 | Florida |  5 |
| 7 | Kentucky | |
| 8 | Boston College | |
| 9 | California | 2 |
| 10 | Texas | 8 |
| 11 | Southern Miss | |
| 12 | Fresno State | |
| 13 | Notre Dame | 1 |
| 14 | Texas A&M | |
| 15 | Houston | |
| 16 | Arizona State | |
| 17 | Kansas | |
| 18 | Vanderbilt | 6 |
| 19 | Mississippi | 12 |
| 20 | Michigan State | |
| 21 | Stanford | |
| 22 | Missouri | |
| 23 | Arkansas | |
| 24 | Penn State | 6 |
| 25 | Michigan | |
| Last week's ballot | ||
Watched: Indiana-EKU, Boise St.-Oregon, Iowa-UNI (second half), nuptials, Cal-Maryland
There is an inherent problem in the old-school resume ranking espoused by such scholars and gentlemen as The Former Sunday Morning Quarterback: When you determine the "most impressive" wins of the week (especially in the first few weeks) based on points and yards in combination with "strength of opponent," you are simply trading a team's preconceived strength for that of its opponents. While it may appear likely that both Alabama and Virginia Tech will end the season with a higher poll ranking than Air Force or Arkansas State, all we know right now is that Alabama was 10 points and 350 yards better than Virginia Tech, and that Air Force put up 72 points on Nichols State. It is a problem I threatened to address last season, and the threat comes true this year.
With that in mind, we get what looks like complete insanity. Essentially, it's margin of victory with a peripheral view of yardage and slight adjustment for I-AA opponents. I know the new rules, and I am not afraid. If Galileo was willing to endure trial before the Pope and house arrest for purity of thought, who am I to protest some minor ballot spiking?
Sometimes, being a fan of a Big Ten team makes you feel like Beatrix Kiddo surrounded by the Crazy 88. There are so many limbs to remove that you don't know where to start.
The ACC went 5-7 in the first week, with 2 home losses to I-AA opponents. The Big XII took two losses from mid-majors; one of those losses was by a would-be conference title/MNC contender. The Pac-10 was 7-3, with a loss by one of its premiere programs. In fact, the only conference with a better won-loss record in week one than the 10-1 Big Ten was the vaunted SEC (11-1), and the Confederacy's week included LSU squeaking by a team that went 0-11 last season, four wins over I-AA opponents (the BXI had the same total, for the record), and a no-show by Georgia.
You would think, given the difficulties of the other BCS conferences, we would get a reprieve from the Big Ten hatred. You would be wrong:
"Atlantic Coast Conference teams went 4-6 Saturday -- two of the losses to Division I-AA teams -- and somehow still came away having not any less luster than the Big Ten, which went 9-1 in openers.
The reason: two nationally ranked Big Ten teams needed special plays from their special teams to avoid what would have been huge upsets."
Let's forget for a moment that it was the Ohio State defense, not the OSU special teams, that came through at the end of that game; it was a two-point conversion attempt, not a fake extra point. No, the title of the article should tell you all you need to know about the idiotic ideology of the author: Winning isn't enough for the Big Ten.
Actually, winning is enough. In fact, winning is all there is to do. If a Big Ten team goes 11-0 with 11 one-point wins, it will play for a national championship (the last Big Ten national champion did little more than that). Margin of victory is not included in the BCS formula anymore. The human polls are diluted by computers void of the preconceived biases of morons like Mike Hiserman. Style points only mean something to people who want to make a point that has no basis in reality. For anyone willing to look rationally at the world (and this is coming from someone who gave Air Force a #1 vote this week), this was about as good an opening week as can be expected for the Big Ten. Michigan looked competent in ways it never did last season. Purdue showed signs of life. Penn State picked up where it left off last November. A potential contender lost in embarassing fashion, to be sure, but did anyone really think a team relying on the mental capacity of Ron Zook and the quarterbacking of Juice Williams would really be a conference championship contender?
Of course, it could be that Missouri really is that good. They're #22, after all. Football nihlism wins again.
3 recs |
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I have to give credit for consistency here, even if it’s totally nuts. Then again, thinking we know anything about anyone after one game is mostly nuts.
by SpartanDan on Sep 8, 2009 11:36 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
While I Love the Concept
Something tells me this ballot is going to get spiked.
by eleventy on Sep 8, 2009 11:52 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Which nuptials were watched?
This is important in considering your ballot-bias.
by YouCanPutYourEddsInIt on Sep 8, 2009 1:01 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
My friend Josh's
Conveniently timed for 3:30 Saturday, so that I could catch the second half of the Iowa game once I arrived in lovely Dodgeville, WI, but a real hindrance on catching the later action.
storminspank: "Or we could join you can take our pants off."
by Hawkeye State on Sep 8, 2009 1:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You should drop out of the blogpoll, if you’re not going to take it seriously.
NittanyWhiteOut.com. Arguably the second best Penn State blog I know of.
by PSUdevon on Sep 8, 2009 1:14 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
It's the first week
It’s way to early in the season to seriously rank teams anyway, so why not. The method used here is about as valid as any, given the information available.
by NorseHawk on Sep 8, 2009 1:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You should drop out of blogging, if you're going to take it so seriously
You think I’m kidding around? What part of my ballot is a joke? Your site’s ballot (I say your site’s because you’re not the one who fills it out) includes three teams at 0-1 and has an admitted bias against mid-majors (to say nothing of Texas Tech at #23). How does that make any sense?
storminspank: "Or we could join you can take our pants off."
by Hawkeye State on Sep 8, 2009 1:47 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
against?
We don’t have Texas Tech, we have 4 mid majors in the top 18, including 2 in the top ten. We hadn’t released it yet. It will be in about 5 minutes. That was one third of the ballot, and Charlie is the resident mid major hater.
NittanyWhiteOut.com. Arguably the second best Penn State blog I know of.
by PSUdevon on Sep 8, 2009 3:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Read your own blog
http://nittanywhiteout.com/2009/09/08/mid-majors-crash-charlies-week-1-blogpoll/#more-4226
I hate the fact I just posted a link, but whatever.
storminspank: "Or we could join you can take our pants off."
by Hawkeye State on Sep 8, 2009 4:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The way we do it
is the three of us submit our ballots, and it gets averaged together for our Blogpoll submission, which is up now. That’s not it.
Look, I feel like I came off as more of a dick than I was trying for. I was trying to be a little tongue in cheek with it, but at the same time, you can’t honestly tell me you think Air Force is the best team in the country. I love this site, and Oops Pow might be the funniest guy on the internet. But I think the way you’re doing your rankings, at least now, makes a mockery of the whole blogpoll system. It’s stuff like that which hinders blogs from getting as much respect from the mainstream media.
NittanyWhiteOut.com. Arguably the second best Penn State blog I know of.
by PSUdevon on Sep 8, 2009 4:09 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think it's viable.
He effectively described his process, and really there is nothing relevant about a September poll. There are currently 75 teams that are 1-0 right now. How can you reliably state that a certain set of those teams is better than another set? We also haven’t even included the 0-1 teams at this point that are roundly considered to be Top 25 material such as OU and UGA.
If he threw that out there in November and Air Force was 5-4, that would be disrespectful. For now, this poll will be a welcome statistical deviation from the FloridaTexasUSC norm.
by Cairo on Sep 8, 2009 4:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree, but within reason
If they had BYU at 2 at OSU at 20 I wouldn’t argue. But there is a zero percent chance, no matter how they good looked on Saturday, that Air Force is the top team in the country. Same goes for half that ballot. Arkansas State? Houston? Southern Miss? These aren’t close to being top 25 teams, rated objectively by anyone else. Sure, after 1 week we don’t have much to go by, but if you’re asking people to measure the top 25, you might as well take it seriously. I get that they’re trying to be different, and edgy, but at what cost?
NittanyWhiteOut.com. Arguably the second best Penn State blog I know of.
by PSUdevon on Sep 8, 2009 4:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
His methodology is admittedly crude, but look at the computer polls.
http://www.mratings.com/cf/compare.htm
After week one, Ole Miss is 5th in one poll, 50th in another. Texas Tech is 7th or 41st, Iowa is 9th or 51st.
As the season progresses, all polling systems balance out into generally acceptable groups of teams.
by Cairo on Sep 8, 2009 4:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's the thing
computers can only take information and run it through a program. We’re humans. We can take things one step further. We have the ability to stray from the model. Just about everyone, and I’d bet Hawkeye State would say the same thing, knows Iowa’s a hell of a lot better than they played on Saturday. But a computer only sees ONE POINT VICTORY OVER 1-AA TEAM and thinks they’re awful. We have the ability to see past that. What BHGP is doing is removing the human aspect from it altogether, and I can’t say I agree with that when it’s really an opinion based poll.
NittanyWhiteOut.com. Arguably the second best Penn State blog I know of.
by PSUdevon on Sep 8, 2009 4:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
But why should we "stray from the model"?
Do we really know anything about Iowa besides ONE POINT VICTORY OVER 1-AA TEAM? After all, everyone “knew” Clemson was good last year. And Wisconsin. And Auburn. And LSU. And Tennessee. Look how those turned out.
Most people think Iowa is better than they looked this past weekend. But nobody knows it. And nobody will until Iowa proves it on the field.
by SpartanDan on Sep 8, 2009 8:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fine
After they lost to 1-AA Appalacian State, Michigan would’ve looked, to the computer model, like one of the worst BCS teams. But they went out and won 9 games that year, finishing it off with a bowl win over Tim Tebow’s Gators. That a good enough analogy?
NittanyWhiteOut.com. Arguably the second best Penn State blog I know of.
by PSUdevon on Sep 8, 2009 8:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
And they got ranked as such ...
… once they proved it. As Iowa will once they prove it, if they do.
by SpartanDan on Sep 8, 2009 9:39 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
How do you know they aren't?
The only relevant data we have is what they did in week 1. How they did last year (or the year before, etc.), how many returning starters they have, and similar stats may have some predictive value, but if you’re looking at on-field results and only on-field results … well, is there any proof they don’t belong in the top 25?
Early-season resume ranking leads to weird results. Most of the “resume” cabal tend to try to evaluate which wins are good or bad early in the season, but how do you figure out which wins are good or bad when you have only that one data point? (The usual answer is a sort of power poll for determining which teams are “good” and “bad”, then resume ranking based on those results. Which sort of defeats the purpose of resume ranking.) Even if I know that in two or three weeks this is going to look completely different, I can respect this for internal consistency based on what we know (not what we think we know) now. This is resume ranking taken one level further.
by SpartanDan on Sep 8, 2009 4:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
But, um, who cares about the mainstream media? Especially when it relates to blogpolls after the first week of a 12 game regular season when nobody knows shit. If more voters actually thought this way, or thought at all, the polls would be more meaningful. As it stands now, it’s a joke.
by txhawkeye on Sep 8, 2009 4:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wow, just...wow.
“I think the way you’re doing your rankings, at least now, makes a mockery of the whole blogpoll system. It’s stuff like that which hinders blogs from getting as much respect from the mainstream media.”
See, that right there is where we have a problem. Do you think for one second that some beat writer is reading NWO and thinking, “Golly gee, they’ve got it right. I really respect them and want to go write for them.” I guarantee you they don’t give a shit about the blogpoll.* And that says nothing of the fact that half the AP voters don’t know their ass from their elbow; we have one right here in the Quad Cities.
As for Air Force, let me answer your question with a question: Who was more impressive last weekend? If you want your preconceived notions of how the season should play out to cloud your vision, then fine. Put Florida at #1 until proven otherwise. But you can’t tell me they were better than Air Force last week, because nobody else disemboweled someone by 72. Anything else going into your calculation is pure guesswork, plain and simple.
If you want to criticize my methodology, be my guest. If you want to criticize my rankings within my methodology, I’d love to hear your thoughts. But if you just want to come in here and accuse me of throwing darts at the newspaper, you, sir, need to go back to that hole you came out of.
- — and, by the way, our disrespected little site gets more input, both positive and negative, from the local MSM than it really deserves.
storminspank: "Or we could join you can take our pants off."
by Hawkeye State on Sep 8, 2009 4:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You misinterpret me
I doubt that anybody other than our typical readership is going through our ballots with a fine toothed comb. But as a member of the blogging community, I get frustrated when we’re considered lesser journalists just because we don’t have a nationally syndicated column. Why can’t our opinions matter just as much? Blogging has had as significant an impact on how events are covered as any, but we seem to be held in disdain by members of the mainstream media. Can’t you just see Buzz Bissinger reading off this list, incredulous face after each one, and saying THIS IS WHAT YOU GET IN THE BLOGOSPHERE? IS THIS WHAT YOU WANT AMERICA? Maybe I’m being hyperbolic, and you’re certainly entitled to your own methodology. But it just seems so far off the norm that the two have trouble coexisting.
As for the actual rankings, I don’t want to rank my teams, this early in the season, merely on performance. By week 4 or 5, when we have a body of work to go off of, I’ll do that. But right now, I’m going with a healthy mix of performance and perceived talent. Sure, it’s guesswork, but I’d bet most everything I own that Florida, Texas, Alabama, Oklahoma State, and Penn State will be closer to the top 5 at the end of the year than AF, UT, Neb, and AK State. I respect that you’re willing to dismantle your rankings each week, but if I told you, Hawkeye State, that RIGHT NOW you have to pick two teams to play for the national championship…are they really going to be Air Force and Tennessee? That’s the way I calculate my rankings, desert for title game consideration. Sure, there’s guesswork involved, but it’s educated guesswork.
I don’t need to hear you brag about what a great blog you have here at BHGP. I know this. I’m a Penn State fan, but this is one of the few blogs I visit every day. You do an awesome job. But not on this one.
NittanyWhiteOut.com. Arguably the second best Penn State blog I know of.
by PSUdevon on Sep 8, 2009 4:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's a silly meaningless poll, stop taking it so seriously
The integrity of sports blogging community does not lie with BHGP’s blogpoll entry. It’s not like the fucking thing is part of the BCS formula or something. He’s making a perfectly legitimate point about the ridiculousness of trying to rank teams based on a one week sample size, and the hypocrisy inherent is voting based purely on resume. Read his post again, and the one he links to.
by NorseHawk on Sep 8, 2009 6:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
If you want respect from the MSM...
… the way to do it is NOT by replicating what they do. That just reinforces their stereotypes about blogging. They see you copy them, and it reinforces that their way is the right way. Otherwise, why copy them?
By coming at it from a different angle, it forces others to be confronted with a new point of view and a new way of thinking about things, thus challenging the preconceived notions that the mainstream upholds.
If you want any respect you have to show that you are original. I don’t want the blogs to be another regurgitation of the USAToday (money) Poll. For the better part of the last decade OSU has been overranked in the preseason, and that carries them through to post-season matches where they get burried (they never should have been ranked that high in the first place), which leads to the whole Big Ten looking bad. USC could lose every player they have, start over from scratch and they would still be put in the top 15 teams in next year’s preseason polls. WHY? Because of perceptions. Not to get too heavy, but people get shot when perceptions override reality. Do you really want to perpetuate this way of doing things?
by Eyeheartfreedumb on Sep 14, 2009 10:02 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's the mainstream media...
…that should be looking for credibility and respect from the blogging community.
by Eyeheartfreedumb on Sep 14, 2009 9:44 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
NWO TO THE RESCUE
Thank you Internet Policeman! You have saved Internet!
I got more rhymes than Wade Lookingbill's got dunks
by Adam Jacobi on Sep 8, 2009 1:53 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
I LOL'd
it’s your ballot, do what you want.
"I'm colonel cool! And I'm the captain on this rocket to the stars!"
by psuphiman80 on Sep 8, 2009 2:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I like this.
It’s almost as accurate as any poll that comes out before the 1st week of October.
I like Air Force ranked #1. I don’t expect to be able to, but it’s nice to know that I may be able to chant “OVERRATED” at my dad’s school next Saturday.
by WhiteSpeedReceiver on Sep 8, 2009 1:58 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Top Gun was the Navy
Der.
storminspank: "Or we could join you can take our pants off."
by Hawkeye State on Sep 8, 2009 2:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
STOP THAT
You’re going to convince me to grow a shaggy beard and sing songs about Winnie the Pooh. If that happens, Dr. Stevens’ work will be completely ruined!
storminspank: "Or we could join you can take our pants off."
by Hawkeye State on Sep 8, 2009 2:59 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Is this the title of an album, or a statement on whether Loggins has a pulse?
Anyway, the first three weeks of the polls is like serially flipping coins: put Air Force #1, but when they lose—as is inevitable—or play like stool, move ‘em down. This early in the season, who cares who’s number one, if your stated system is to evaluate each team weak to week without pre-season bias?
In other words, everyone else can blow it our of their ear, HawkeyeState, because I’m on your side. If Air Force beats eleven more teams 72-0, then by Ahab’s Fucking Ghost they should be #1.
Then again, that’s like calling a coin flip correctly 500 times in a row—could happen, not betting my oldest male child on it.
The poll will sort itself out in time. Meanwhile, HawkeyeState, I like your style and methodology. And wouldn’t it be something if the Falcons went on a 72-0 victory-tear?
If it's not too much trouble, search your soul--and then ask yourself if maybe I might have a point.
by The Director on Sep 8, 2009 5:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Here goes nothing...
Let’s take serious out back for a moment and beat him with a stick….ok done!
I’ll make the assumption that Air Force is the best academy this year (Navy/AF will be a good game) and thus I believe AF could beat OSU who in the minds of OSU fans are the worlds greatest and therefore I fully believe AF is #1! I like my rationalization and I think it fully substantiates Hawkeye State…. BTW Arkansas State?? They pummeled a team (Mississippi Valley State) that was better than a team that PSU plays in two years (Indiana State)…oh dear lord the horror!
by psu1313 on Sep 8, 2009 6:10 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Which item do I like best about this thread?
a) it brought 3 PSU fans, 1 MSU fan, and 1 OSU fan, and 1 Minnesota fan out of the woodwork to comment on it. (OK, WSReceiver wasn’t exactly in the woodwork, but you get my point.)
b) it inspired a PSU fan (who should probably be basking in their status as the clear-cut best-looking Big Ten team at the moment) whining for several hours about it, and an MSU fan (that should probably be fearing some of their upcoming non-con opponents’ abilities) to rebut said PSU fan for roughly the same amount of time.
c) the aforementioned PSU-MSU war of words made me forget, or not care, or forget to care that my team almost blew it against an FCS team.
d) it spawned the sort of Kenny Loggins retrospective that I have been hoping to see on one of the VH1 channels for some time.
e) it made me realize (forever) that there is no point in paying any attention to CFB blogpolls, and it made me question if I should care at all about real CFB polls this early.
I've sentenced boys younger than you to the gas chamber. Didn't want to do it. I felt I owed it to them.
-- Judge Smails
by WaterlooChazz on Sep 8, 2009 10:14 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
my methodology consists of pounding whiskey
and falling asleep. it has roughly equal or more influence on college football than a blogpoll, but i still take it VERY SERIOUSLY.
by Nefarious on Sep 9, 2009 2:48 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
that's not a joke either
i take whiskey really fucking seriously.
by Nefarious on Sep 9, 2009 2:48 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I like you
You’d better be at the tailgate.
storminspank: "Or we could join you can take our pants off."
by Hawkeye State on Sep 9, 2009 8:13 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You hath been spiked
http://www.cbssports.com/mcc/blogs/view/11123713
He gets where you’re coming from, but says you shouldn’t have turned in a ballot if you felt this way since you don’t have to submit one for the first few weeks.
Point made though.
by Yinka Double Dare on Sep 9, 2009 11:42 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Awesome
I fully support your voting methodology.
I don’t give a shit who is SUPPOSED to be good. Let’s see it on the GOD DAMN FOOTBAW FIELD WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
by Wolverine_Dex on Sep 9, 2009 11:46 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
this poll goes to 11
“It’s such a fine line between stupid and clever.”
Eat what the monkey eats, then eat the monkey. -U.S. Navy survival guidance
by psudrozz on Sep 9, 2009 4:22 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
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