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Red Zone Efficiency is a Dumb Statistic.

Notes on numbers after grazing the NCAA summary statistics:

 

 

Star-divide

The NCAA's Red Zone Efficiency is a dumb metric, because as configured it doesn't weight field goals vs. TDs.  You could give up field goals, exclusively, and keep your opponents out of the red zone at twice the rate of a mediocre team, and rank lower than the mediocre.

In this way Iowa and Ohio State are ranked 111th in red zone efficiency, and Iowa State is ranked 15th.  But Iowa has allowed 7 red zone penetrations and only 29 red zone points; OSU 5 penetrations and 32 points; ISU 15 penetrations and 66 points.  This stat needs to be sorted to reflect frequency and weighted by outcome (field goal vs. TD).  

Oddly, the NCAA's Scoring Defense includes points scored against a team's offense.  Iowa goes from 8th to 5th in the country in scoring defense if you count, you know, points scored against the defense?  (Iowa goes to 9.9 ppg and bumps ahead of USC.)  This adjustment is incomplete because I don't know how many points were scored against other teams' offense.  I suppose too one should control for special teams.  Net: well, either bust a big play against Iowa or try to kick a field goal.  Of course, in the latter case, we might block it a few times.

T.M.F. Sash is second in the country in INTs but first in the country in INT return yardage.  Which explains why Prater did that weird, I-want-to-be-Tyler-I-must-go-all-the-way backward ramble on his pick Saturday night: peer pressure.

Iowa is 3rd in team INTs.  Interestingly, Iowa appears to be first in opposing QB passing percentage at 45% (the NCAA doesn't do this sort, but I scanned the top 100), and this includes the excellent Pat Grace's results.

Iowa is therefore 6th in Team Passing Defense Efficiency, and god knows what we would be if we excepted the excellent Pat Grace (because we all know it's not fair to compare Pat Grace to Daryll Clark, inasmuch as the Miami Dolphins wish they had Pat Grace right now, and Penn State wishes their quarterback would just grow a pair, for starters).  

What's different about this team than any Parker defense I can remember is the following, and I think this is the story so far: we are only average in total rushing defense, while being superior in virtually all pass defense metrics.  Think about it.  In the past the good D's have been crushing against the run, and average against the pass.  But even this is not the whole story.  We have been crushing against the marquee backs, the excellent Carlos Anderson excepted, and destroyed their ability to influence the game (Robinson, Grigsby, Royster), .  The 29 quarters-no-TD stat has been beaten to death by now, though completely ignored by national media, and I don't know how you put a team on national TV and forget to mention that one of the teams has decided to make rushing TDs illegal, but I guess there's a reason it's called the idiot box; anyway, there seems to have been a strategic decision to worry primarily about the difference-makers on the ground, less about overall rushing effectiveness.  Iowa is giving up 4.2 ypc, but UNI is the only team to get anything done on the ground, and use the ground game, to produce a football contest.

***

Don't look now, but Rhodes has Iowa State looking better, statistically, than they have in a long time.  A-Rob is at 5.7 ypc, their defense and punting are doing okay, and ... maybe he's got something going there.  I listened to him on the radio last week and I have to say, he seems like a good guy who, as Bill Snyder said in his list of ten things every coach should follow, is "being where he is".   (One of Snyder maxims is "Be where you are.")  I think Rhodes likes where he is, which is good, because now they can lose their next 9, please.

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Wha Happened? Week Two

Sep 2009 by RossWB - 26 comments

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Good points all...

The story of this team is that if you look at our defense on paper you see one team, and a nice team. But if you look at them in person they are another team, a monstrous team. And their best attribute that I can see, is that they can adapt and create problems for almost any kind of offense. A run first offense will certainly have trouble with Iowa. And we have seen what happens with pass first offenses. It is really a testament to having flexible personnel, overall team speed, great coaching and excellent scheming and, best of all, an offense that can hold the ball (so far). The hidden statistic for me from the Penn State game is that we had one (1) three and out series on offense. That really helps your defense. It allows them to get into a rhythm of sorts. I expect that if our offense continues down that line, the points will come.

Karl Klug is an animal. Next game we’re going to bring him in a cage. -- Adrian Clayborn

by StoopsMyAss on Sep 29, 2009 12:39 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

The points scored and points allowed is pretty universal.

NFL uses it as well. Just like a blocked punt return for a TD would count towards the offense’s points scored. Or an INT return. That’s why “most” people would use yards gained and yards allowed to better measure the worth of an offense and defense. Of course, then you’d have the problem of a bend-bend-but-don’t-break defense like the Hawkeyes or an offense that doesn’t have a power game but is adept at “moving it between the 20’s”.

If you want something that more accurately measures offensive and defensive efficiency, go to somewhere like FootballOutsiders.com and poke around a bit.

People should remember that while they have the right to their opinion, they are not entitled to be taken seriously. --Bruce Bartlett

by tyger1147 on Sep 30, 2009 8:49 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Oh, unfortunately, they don't have college stats.

I should have mentioned that; it’s just NFL.

People should remember that while they have the right to their opinion, they are not entitled to be taken seriously. --Bruce Bartlett

by tyger1147 on Sep 30, 2009 8:50 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

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