Jeff Peterson Is A Total Liability

[Note: As with last week, Wednesday is the polling day of Sabbath. And so is Saturday. And Sunday. Shut up.]

Recall, if you will, our post from a couple weeks ago that stated that Iowa's biggest liability, when adjusted for tempo, was actually their defense. It didn't really make sense, given their good defensive fundamentals and penchant for drawing (kinda bullshit) charges.

And so, Gasaway's final rankings came out, and Iowa's still #10 in the conference. But there's something worth noticing:

                                     Opp.
Pace PPP PPP EM
1. Michigan St. 63.6 1.06 0.93 +0.13
2. Wisconsin 57.8 1.08 1.00 +0.08
3. Purdue 63.6 1.02 0.95 +0.07
4. Illinois 61.1 0.98 0.93 +0.05
5. Ohio St. 60.8 1.07 1.05 +0.02
6. Minnesota 62.2 0.98 0.98 0.00
7. Michigan 61.0 1.01 1.03 -0.02
8. Penn St. 59.7 1.00 1.04 -0.04
9. Northwestern 59.6 1.03 1.07 -0.04
10. Iowa 56.8 0.99 1.07 -0.08
11. Indiana 63.2 0.93 1.12 -0.19

Yep, there's Iowa, still at #10. Except... they're down to -0.08 in efficiency margin. Yes, second worst still, but consider where they were on, oh let's say... February 17.

                                     Opp.
Pace PPP PPP EM
1. Michigan St. 63.1 1.11 0.94 +0.17
2. Wisconsin 58.2 1.08 1.00 +0.08
3. Illinois 61.0 1.00 0.93 +0.07
4. Purdue 62.4 1.00 0.94 +0.06
5. Ohio St. 63.1 1.05 1.01 +0.04
6. Minnesota 63.4 0.98 0.98 0.00
7. Penn St. 61.2 1.01 1.05 -0.04
8. Michigan 61.0 0.98 1.02 -0.04
8. Northwestern 61.0 1.02 1.08 -0.06
10. Iowa 57.4 0.98 1.09 -0.11
11. Indiana 64.3 0.92 1.10 -0.18

That's a bit of a jump from then to now for Iowa, no? Of course, they're still at #10, but they shaved some percentage off their margin in a quick minute. And surprisingly, it looks like this was addition by subtraction.

When Jeff Peterson's hamstring went haywire, Iowa was putting the finishing touches on a listless loss at Wisconsin on February 11. After that, shit CHANGED, son. Observe (thank you, Johann Hawk):

--- Pace ------ PPP --- OPPP ---- E
Pet 58.0 ----- 0.95 --- 1.11 --- -0.16
Kel 55.8 ----- 0.99 --- 1.03 --- -0.03

As you can probably tell, "Pet" means the games with Jeff Peterson starting at point, and "Kel" means when Jake Kelly had to take over point guard responsibilities. That's an enormous difference. And sure, those numbers seem a little confusing by themselves. Did Iowa somehow get better at offense AND defense while losing depth? What the hell? What does it all mean, Basil? Allow us to introduce one more statistic to explain everything.

--- Pace --- TO/Pos --- PPP --- OPPP ---- E
Pet 58.0 ---- 24.0 --- 0.95 --- 1.11 --- -0.16
Kel 55.8 ---- 18.3 --- 0.99 --- 1.03 --- -0.03

Oh ho. And it explains everything. With Iowa cutting down on gifts to the opposition by a good 30%, all of a sudden those free points for the opposition goes down and the efficiency ratings get earned in the half court, not the full court.

And really, anyone who actually watched Kelly run the point knows that Kelly can reliably create A) space off the dribble or B) his own jumper... and Peterson can't. Peterson (who, God bless him, is by all accounts a hell of a guy and who really improved his scoring efficiency from last season) is still a turnover machine. Kelly, for his part, isn't.

If I'm putting together a starting lineup for next season, it looks a little like this:

  • PG: Kelly
  • SG: Tucker
  • SF: Gatens
  • Um, other SF: Fuller
  • Token Large Man: Cole

First of all, yes, there's no Peterson. He wouldn't be starting on a decent BXI team, and once Iowa's decent... he probably won't. As for the real starting five, everyone's between 6'4" and 6'7" (except Gatens at 8'7"), but who the fuck is going to burn Iowa on a lack of inside size next season? BJ Mullens is obviously declaring, so there's... um... Coleton Iverson? Right, exactly. With Kelly as a decent point man and height where it matters, Iowa should be right in the middle of the pack in terms of efficiency next season. That should mean about 18 wins and a lot of quieter mouths 12 months from now.

Anyway, we're getting Zooked tomorrow. Get pumped.

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