RBR Examines Shonn Greene's Numbers
by kleph on Feb 24, 2009 9:09 AM CST
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Print[Bumped. Not sure I like the methodology, but it's worth a look all the same.--OPS]
Roll Bama Roll has a feature looking at the success rates of college running backs. While this typically is done for Alabama backs, they turn their attention to other backfielders of note and, this week, it's Iowa's own Shonn Greene.
The nitty gritty is in the post but the conclusion drawn is Greene was something of a "boom or bust" type of back:
"Obviously you want a back that can bust off big, game changing runs, but if you're going to be a feature back ... breaking the big runs on 1st down while failing to consistently move the chains on 3rd and short isn't really what you want."
[You see what I mean.--OPS]
Unless otherwise expressly indicated by BHGP editors, this FanPost is strictly the viewpoint of the author and is not endorsed by BHGP in any way.
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I have no idea what's good for a college back but 57% is great for a Pro back
would have been 3rd in the league.
I ain't tryin' do you, I'm just tryin' do me
Last album did two, I'm just tryin' do three.
-Young Jeezy "I Luv It
Does anyone know Shonn's total yards after contact?
I swear I saw this stat at some point during the season but now I can’t find it anywhere. I’m starting to fear I dreamed it or drunkenly hallucinated it.
His yards after contact numbers....
….were HUGE. I saw it somewhere while doing all this, I’ll see if I can find them. Honestly, in looking at his runs, I was really impressed by him even though it may not come off in my post. I only saw Iowa play three times last year (Michigan State, Penn State, and the bowl game), and got the impression that he’s a solid straight ahead runner that can level a man to extend the play and that was the biggest key to his success (no breaking outside or trying to use speed instead of blocking).
I do remember some key short yardage failures
but they usually involved an unblocked linebacker in the hole behind the line of scrimmage.
I ain't tryin' do you, I'm just tryin' do me
Last album did two, I'm just tryin' do three.
-Young Jeezy "I Luv It
ARGH FUCK THOSE PLAYS NEVER HAPPENED
I got more rhymes than Wade Lookingbill's got dunks
by Adam Jacobi on Feb 24, 2009 12:34 PM CST up reply actions
Singling him out isn't really fairng
There were some high profile missed blocks, but for the most part Morse was a very good lead blocker all year long, and a huge asset to Greene. We had a lot more trouble running the ball out of ace formation. I think the problems on 3rd and 4th in short had more to do with scheme and, as Bellanca pointed out in like 7000 incoherent rambling posts during the season, the fact that we basically just ran the same play every single time we were in that situation, and teams could sell out against it.
I don't know what fairng means either
The right word is in there, but apparently I thought it needed two extra letters. As always, I am retarded and we need an edit function.
Actually, it's
L-E-P-P-E-R-T
But you are correct. Total GREENWOOD on my part, I meant Leppert, not Morse as Morse was actually good as a blocker (wouldn’t know about his ball-running/catching skills as KOK seems determined to never use the FB in such a capacity).
I ate the blue ones ... they taste like burning.
The methodology isn’t perfect, but it’s familiar to readers of Football Outsiders and their efforts to do for standard football statistics what Bill James did for baseball and Billy Beane. I wouldn’t get too worked up about it. Barry Sanders was the greatest “boom or bust” RB of all time and he did all right.
This is also a pretty blatant misunderstanding of what "boom or bust" is
Typically that refers to a guy who tends to get 1, 2, or negative yard gains for the most of his carries and then bust a 50 yarder or something (see also: Javon Ringer). Greene, on the other hand, was basically a steady diet of 4-6 yard gains, very few losses, and some huge plays here and there. In general boom or bust backs are less valuable because while they may produce some big plays, they also kill lots of drives with all the lost yardage and short runs (Sanders in the exception because his “booms” were better and so much more frequent then most backs like him, they of course he does have the most runs for negative yardage in NFL history). Greene didn’t do that, he consistently got solid gains on first downs and second down that either moved the chains on their own, or at least put the team in very manageable 3rd down position. That’s extremely valuable.
Well, Barry probably isn't the best example
but if he is the career leader in runs for negative yardage, it illustrates the point perfectly. To me as a Vikings fan, it seemed like Barry would be bumping along with 20 carries for 45 yards, then he’d do something spectacular and bust off a 75 yard TD. Presto, the YPC goes from 2.25 to 5.7.
by telepathetic on Feb 24, 2009 1:19 PM CST up reply actions
Boom or Bust is the problem I have with it too.
Maybe it is the fantasy geek in me, but I have a definition of boom or bust, and it is just simply not Shonn. In my book, a Boom or Bust back would have games of like 50, 30, 60, 240, then 40 yards. Inconsistant. Shonn Green was just boom boom boom boom all year. 100+ yards every game y’all! Mr. Consistant.
I love sabermetrics, and numbers are loads of fun. The Football Outsiders didn’t invent this, it is from the book, “’’The Hidden Game of Football”. The inventors of it warn to take the numbers for what they are worth. You can’t draw too solid of conclusions (or any really) about the quality or skill of a back vs another while using stats that depend so heavily on game situation and offensive schemes. I mean…if Iowa had a bigger passing threat, then Shonn would’ve no doubt had less men in the box on 3rd down, and therefor a better “3rd Down Success Rate”. Also, most numbers that compute an average are harder to maintain over the course of a larger sample. If he didn’t have as many carries he could have probably ended the year “more efficient” according to this stat. With this stat, Andy Brodell was a better rusher than Shonn Greene in 2008. This is just stupid.
You can’t compare it on a back by back basis and seriously think you are comparing apples to apples. There are too many variables with this stat that are not accounted for to be able to draw any conclusions that mean squat…no matter how hard they try down thur’ in Alybama.
Certain stats are useful. Certain stats are just useless numbers. Just ask Doak Walker…
Go Hawks!
So let me get this straight abou this system
3 straight running plays: Greene gains 3 yards on 1st & 10 (30-fail); Greene gains 4 yards on 2nd & 7 (57-fail) and 4 yards on 3rd down (100-success!). This is a 33 success rate in this “system”—or an utter failure—but a huge success for Iowa. Hell, even if he doesn’t get the first down on 3rd, it’s still a success if it’s in the first 3 quarters. They wear teams down. “Success”, especially as defined there, is mildly irrelevant to what Iowa did last year. Sprinkle in his 10 and 15 and 50 yard runs, and voila! Big time back.
So, a running back could run the ball every single down of the game, get 3 or 4 yards 75% of the time, 20 yards 25% of the time, never have one negative carry and still be a huge failure in this system. That ain’t right.
Viva la nuance! Reading comprehension rules!!!
by tyger1147 on Feb 24, 2009 4:08 PM CST reply actions 1 recs
espn insider evaluation of the draft's rb class
Andre Brown -110.2
Cedric Peerman -110.2
Ian Johnson -107.2
Javarris Williams -106.9
Chris Wells -105.9
Kory Sheets -104.2
Donald Brown -101.5
Rashad Jennings -99.7
Shonn Greene -98.8
Mike Goodson -97.9
Chris Ogbonnaya -97.4
Marlon Lucky -97.3
Knowshon Moreno -96.9
James Davis -96.5
Glen Coffee -95.0
Jeremiah Johnson -92.5
Bernard Scott -92.5
Anthony Kimble -91.6
Javon Ringer -91.6
Branden Ore -90.0
Tyrell Sutton -89.5
Gartrell Johnson -89.0
Kahlil Bell -88.4
112 is the score for a 1st round caliber back, and 102.4 is the score for a back that should be drafted. This is the most ridiculous metric i have ever seen. it somehow takes into effect a backs weight and their 40 time. According to this Greene is the 9th best back available and is completely undraftable
On the bright side
He’s 10 spots higher than Ringer. Which I think we all know.
by chitownhawkeye on Feb 24, 2009 8:53 PM CST up reply actions
Those are speed scores
it’s a improved 40 time measure. It has a .45 correlation with NFL carries, yardage and DYAR (Football Outsider’s, the site that did the research to find it, counting stat).
It’s only taking into account 40 time and weight, it’s not a overall evaluation
I ain't tryin' do you, I'm just tryin' do me
Last album did two, I'm just tryin' do three.
-Young Jeezy "I Luv It
by shake n bake on Feb 24, 2009 10:10 PM CST up reply actions
Whatever...
I think Shonn Greene can translate into the pros. I think that he is not ranked as a first rounder by nearly every scout plays to his advantage in every way but one, money. He ain’t gonna make much do re m BUT he now will only be drafted by a team that is very certain about his fit. If he were the highest rated RB then he would run the risk of being a “best athlete available” pick. Too many RBs that have been drafted like this have failed. Blocking schemes, offensive philosophies, etc. are very crucial to his success in my eyes. I sense that he will go to a team that relies on the run to set-up play action and employs a zone blocking scheme (many do these days so that list is pretty big). I also think that means Shonn goes -big prediction here - in the third round to Denver. BUT, I could see him falling to the fourth or even the fifth round. I just have a feeling that there is a lot of “concern” out there about his age, speed, pass catching ability, blocking ability, overall football smarts, lack of resume beyond last year, to name a few.
"When you don't know that you don't know, it's a lot different than when you do know that you don't know." Bill Parcells
and denver is one team who th rb excels…paki omeara could run in denvers scheme. now figure that out alabama whoever you are
laughing very VERY hard that if anybody thinks kory sheets is going to be better than shonn greene. whaTEVER
all we know is half the first round are busts. after all the media discussion on the texans first pick of mario williams a few years back and the fact that no way can reggie bush be a bust makes all these calculations idiotic. nobody knows who is going to fit in and become the star of their position before it happens.
I think they are just trying to throw the focus away from that head case OT from their own school. now theres a discussion. bust or boom
Be nice, kleph
when he says things like “now figure that out alabama whoever you are,” AND it’s 3 am on a Wednesday morning, it’s clear we’re dealing with a man who is A) drunk, B) unemployed, and C) utterly retarded. I would hope you have better targets upon which to pick.
Now let Corky be.
I got more rhymes than Wade Lookingbill's got dunks
by Adam Jacobi on Feb 25, 2009 10:16 AM CST up reply actions
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