WhatIfSports analysis of the Orange Bowl

by fossilhawk on Dec 15, 2009 9:25 AM CST Comment 39 comments

Also posted on the GT site, but there's some interesting results yielded from plugging Iowa and GT in at a neutral field.

They really don't think this will be a close game at all, evidently:

http://www.whatifsports.com/ncaafb/boxscore.asp?GameID=1448891&nomenu=1

http://www.whatifsports.com/ncaafb/boxscore.asp?GameID=1448908&nomenu=1

http://www.whatifsports.com/ncaafb/boxscore.asp?GameID=1448912&nomenu=1

http://www.whatifsports.com/ncaafb/boxscore.asp?GameID=1448916&nomenu=1

http://www.whatifsports.com/ncaafb/boxscore.asp?GameID=1448922&nomenu=1

http://www.whatifsports.com/ncaafb/boxscore.asp?GameID=1448934&nomenu=1

And when it is a close game:

http://www.whatifsports.com/ncaafb/boxscore.asp?GameID=1448935&nomenu=1

http://www.whatifsports.com/ncaafb/boxscore.asp?GameID=1448938&nomenu=1

http://www.whatifsports.com/ncaafb/boxscore.asp?GameID=1448969&nomenu=1

But, you know, lies, damn lies, etc.

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Jesus, they love the Iowa running game.

Either they’re expecting the 2002 Iowa offensive line (and Shonn Greene) to show up for this game (which would be totally awesome, albeit probably a little, uh, illegal) or the Georgia Tech defense has the run-stopping capabilities of Kleenex.

Also: if Paki O’Meara rushes for two touchdowns (as predicted by one of those scenarios), everyone on this site will be blackout drunk for a week after the game. And the word may end.

by RossWB on Dec 15, 2009 9:40 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

I was just getting ready to post those very same thoughts.

WhatIfSports must have seen this coming.

Image courtesy of Twin Cities Hawk in an earlier post,

"You don't become a Hawkeye fan, You're born with Black and Gold in your veins." - Me

by BStylin Hawkye on Dec 15, 2009 9:46 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs

Though it would clearly signify the end of the world

I can’t tell you how much I want us to be able to drop that picture on the Rumble Seat during the game.

I ate the blue ones ... they taste like burning.

by HoyaGoon on Dec 15, 2009 11:16 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I think their servers would simultaneously explode if we did.

"You don't become a Hawkeye fan, You're born with Black and Gold in your veins." - Me

by BStylin Hawkye on Dec 15, 2009 11:55 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I didn't create that - I copied and pasted it from a post prior to the start of the season

by Twin Cities Hawk on Dec 16, 2009 8:26 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Ah.

I remembered you posted it after A-Rob got injured, so I went digging.

"You don't become a Hawkeye fan, You're born with Black and Gold in your veins." - Me

by BStylin Hawkye on Dec 16, 2009 11:16 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Well...

I’ve seen two Georgia Tech games. Their run defense had the run-stopping capabilities of Kleenex against Clemson (who has C.J. Spiller), and Georgia (who doesn’t have C.J. Spiller).

"Andrew Jones....SEND IT IN, BIG FELLA!" - Bill Raftery, 4/2/09

by ReadingRambler on Dec 15, 2009 9:51 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

True, their defense isn't great.

But the Iowa running game has been maddeningly inconsistent.

And I like A-Rob and Wegher plenty, but they are definitely not world-beaters.

Obviously, I would be more than happy to eat my words…

by RossWB on Dec 15, 2009 10:05 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Healthy A-Rob = fewer Wegher tfls. We’ll see if I’m yelling all game, RUN LEFT. GOD DAMMIT. Here’s hoping.

by txhawkeye on Dec 15, 2009 10:12 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Healthy Wegher = fewer Wegher TFLs

Brunettes not fighter jets

by rockyh on Dec 15, 2009 12:45 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

You're 103rd in rushing offense

I didn’t know it was that inconsistent.

Georgia doesn’t have any world-beaters either though. They’re 54th.

"Andrew Jones....SEND IT IN, BIG FELLA!" - Bill Raftery, 4/2/09

by ReadingRambler on Dec 15, 2009 11:10 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I just had us

winning 72-7. The average has been about 40-13.

http://www.rivalryesq.com/
The quintessential Big Ten smoking room.

by Bama Hawkeye on Dec 15, 2009 10:01 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

My results

I had an average of 51-24 us over the course of 10 games. I did notice that Murray misses at least 1 PAT and The SDS throws an average of 2.5 picks.

"You don't become a Hawkeye fan, You're born with Black and Gold in your veins." - Me

by BStylin Hawkye on Dec 15, 2009 10:25 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

So you're saying that they're accurate then?

I ate the blue ones ... they taste like burning.

by HoyaGoon on Dec 15, 2009 11:17 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

WhatIfSports > Hlastradomous?

Take the over, I guess?

Seriously, there is no way Iowa gives up over 300 rushing yards, like this things “predicts”.

by YouCanPutYourEddsInIt on Dec 15, 2009 11:27 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

It was also showing that we would average 500 yards of offense.

"You don't become a Hawkeye fan, You're born with Black and Gold in your veins." - Me

by BStylin Hawkye on Dec 15, 2009 11:56 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

So it's saying

What if Iowa’s offense was replaced with the Indianapolis Colts?

It never gets to be easy

by chitownhawkeye on Dec 15, 2009 5:25 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

You mean they aren't already the same team.

Wasn’t making Iowa and the Colts the same team always a long term objective.

by AreWeThereYet on Dec 16, 2009 2:01 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Not if KOK has anything to do with it.

"Wow. You know you have problems when even the cheerleaders know you suck." ~ Pain in the Sash

by Leftcoast Hawk on Dec 16, 2009 3:17 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Here's a close one - seems likely

http://www.whatifsports.com/ncaafb/boxscore.asp?GameID=1450029&nomenu=1

I tried running it with Iowa in all different offensive styles, and they still won. WhatIfSports has no respect for Ga. Tech’s defense.

by YouCanPutYourEddsInIt on Dec 15, 2009 11:39 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

I see your shows us with 550 yards of offense as well.

"You don't become a Hawkeye fan, You're born with Black and Gold in your veins." - Me

by BStylin Hawkye on Dec 15, 2009 11:56 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Clearly Ken O’Keefe was the X factor in these simulations. How else do you explain the offensive explosion?

by cutlassbob on Dec 15, 2009 8:18 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Here's a closer one

after about 10 tries I got an epic Daniel Murray moment. Note the time between GA techs last score and ours. Epic Drive FTW!

http://whatifsports.com/ncaafb/boxscore.asp?GameID=1456747&nomenu=1

by iamalex13 on Dec 15, 2009 9:23 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

exact opposite :D

http://whatifsports.com/ncaafb/boxscore.asp?GameID=1456804&nomenu=1

still havent had one where IOwa has lost

by iamalex13 on Dec 15, 2009 9:24 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I am totally declaring a jihad on WhatIf Sports if these projections aren't accurate.

by RossWB on Dec 15, 2009 10:21 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

what are you talking about?

you dont think Iowa will score 80 points agaisnt Georgia Tech and have 570 rushing yards including A-Rob with 25 carries for 386 YARDS!!!!!!!!

by iamalex13 on Dec 15, 2009 11:09 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

My favorite part of that projection?

Ricky Stanzi, 10 carries, 30 yards.

Read that as many times as it takes for your brain to explode.

I got more rhymes than Wade Lookingbill's got dunks

by Adam Jacobi on Dec 15, 2009 11:54 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

oops Oops, I didn't see your post...

…my brain exploded first

by Eyeheartfreedumb on Dec 16, 2009 3:55 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Uh...

…that has Stanzi running 10 (10!) times for 30 yards, with a long of 12 and a sack for 5… which means he runs 8 times for 23 yards with no 4th down attempts (so no 1 yard QB sneaks). That’s 8 scrambles for an average of 3 yards each. I (hope I) don’t see this happening.

by Eyeheartfreedumb on Dec 16, 2009 3:54 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Rick has shown the jets.

in the indy game he had scrambles for some first downs. I remember that cuz the announcer was kinda going crazy about how much he loves it when Ricky Stanzi runs the ball.

There is no way that Paki rushes for nine yards. -KenOKeefeIfuckinghateyou.

by iamalex13 on Dec 16, 2009 9:14 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs