BlogpLOL Week Nine: The Glass Ceiling
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| Rank | Team | Delta |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Texas | 1 |
| 2 | Florida | 2 |
| 3 | Iowa | |
| 4 | TCU | 2 |
| 5 | Alabama | 4 |
| 6 | Penn State | 2 |
| 7 | Boise State | 2 |
| 8 | Oregon | 1 |
| 9 | Cincinnati | 4 |
| 10 | Miami (Florida) | 5 |
| 11 | Pittsburgh | 1 |
| 12 | Southern Cal | 3 |
| 13 | Arizona | 1 |
| 14 | Georgia Tech | 3 |
| 15 | Ohio State | 1 |
| 16 | Wisconsin | 4 |
| 17 | Virginia Tech | 5 |
| 18 | Oklahoma | 6 |
| 19 | LSU | 1 |
| 20 | Houston | 5 |
| 21 | Oklahoma State | 4 |
| 22 | Texas Tech | |
| 23 | California | |
| 24 | South Florida | |
| 25 | Notre Dame | 4 |
| Last week's ballot | ||
Dropped Out: South Carolina (#19), West Virginia (#22), Mississippi (#23).
Tackle Eligible: West Virginia, Ole Miss, Boston College, BYU, Utah
There are certainly some interesting results in this week's blogpoll, not the least of which being Oregon's downward movement despite its victory over Southern Cal. Part of the reason for this phenomenon is the recent predictiveness of the BlogpLOL; last week's poll had Oregon already in place two spots above USC, and expected the victory far more than traditional predictive voters (it's as ironic as rain on your wedding day). Getting Oregon and USC to their proper post-Pac-10 Apocalypse positioning took far less heavy lifting than most others.
But Oregon is also a victim of internal consistency. Part of what distinguishes BlogpLOL from a pure computer ranking is a respect for head-to-head results and a desire to reflect those results whenever possible. By this point in the season, that possibility is rare; 94% of Division I squads have lost a game, and the transitive property would leave us grasping at straws: If you account for Ohio State's victory over Wisconsin, you then need to factor in Purdue's win over Ohio State, and then Wisconsin's win over Purdue, and then you need to lock yourself away like Salinger because the illogical world has finally driven you to hermit-esque madness.
Where that logic has yet to break down, however, is where an undefeated team is involved, and therein lies Oregon's dilemma: As long as their sole vanquisher remains undefeated, the Ducks are inexorably tied to Boise State. I won't bore you with the specifics of the calculation, but the BlogpLOL rule for head-to-head adjustments is to split the difference. In other words, if Team A is ranked 20 points ahead of Team B, who is undefeated with a win over Team A, 11 points are deducted from Team A and 11 points are given to Team B. By this standard, no win this season was bigger than Boise's win over Oregon on opening night, as the Broncos and Ducks swap a staggering 60 points on top of adjustments for quality wins and losses, moving Oregon down four spots and Boise up seven. And yet, Boise's strength of schedule is so incredibly poor -- at 12 games under .500, the worst of the top 35, by a wide margin -- that it creates a glass ceiling for Oregon through which the Ducks cannot pass. Barring a catastrophe at the top, Oregon couldn't move higher even if they had beaten the 49ers Saturday.
The other odd result is Alabama, which places fifth despite their clear positioning in the typical voter's top three. The reason for Alabama's fall from grace is far simpler: Their schedule blows. The Crimson Tide is the only undefeated squad whose vanquished opponents have all lost three or more games. In fact, Alabama's schedule (Virginia Tech, Ole Miss, Tennessee, South Carolina, Arkansas) is precisely the type of schedule BlogpLOL is designed to destroy: Big on names, light on wins. Alabama's "premiere" wins so far, ostensibly against Virginia Tech and Ole Miss, are worth less with every passing week as those teams continue to fade. Florida has one-loss LSU (discounted severely by the poll, as their schedule is even worse than 'Bama). Texas has Oklahoma State (with its two losses each against top 20 opposition). Iowa has Penn State (whose powderpuff schedule improves with each passing week). TCU has that curbstomping of BYU. Alabama has nothing that stacks up, and so their fall is inevitable.
There is little else of note inside the poll this week. Cincinnati, while remaining the lowest-ranked of the unbeatens, gains back some ground as its wins over South Florida and Rutgers look better (and teams like Virginia Tech keep imploding). Georgia Tech and Notre Dame take 'Bama-like dips as their quality wins lost quality (or, in Notre Dame's case, their conquerors lost badly to Illinois). Houston continues to gain ground as Texas Tech and Okie State remain afloat on little more than the staggering mediocrity beneath them.
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12 comments
Comments
In related news, Notre Dame has the CK Award this week.
They play Navy. Most likely the CK curse shows up for them next week against Pitt. I’ll love it either way.
by YouCanPutYourEddsInIt on Nov 4, 2009 2:43 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Probably true.
But I have to say that perhaps my favorite indictment of the Weis Era at Notre Dame is that he took the discussion surrounding the Navy game from “when we beat Navy” to “if we beat Navy.”
I have nothing but respect for the kids at Navy and, rationally, I suppose that eventually they would have to beat Notre Dame at some point… but still. To lose to an opponent whose football resources are barely an inkling of your own and who had failed to beat you in the previous forty-three attempts, well that’s a special flavor of FAIL that sticks to you for a long, long time.
by RossWB on Nov 4, 2009 2:49 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
That will take one more loss.....
…..because the Media really and truly wants a two-loss ND in a BCS game about as much as they want a no-loss Iowa NOT in one.
I do not see ND running the table, even if the rest of their games are in S Bend, which they probably are, since the Irish finagled their schedule so they played only about one half away at the Big House and the other 23 halves of the season at home or at the Alamo Dome.
All that being said, Jimmy Clausen IS a deserving Heisman winner, and right now, I think he should win it.
If it's not too much trouble, search your soul--and then ask yourself if maybe I might have a point.
by The Director on Nov 4, 2009 3:52 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Next year ND plays
three true road game. Three! They play a couple of neutral site games in locatios where their fans like to vacation or there is huge walk-up ND ticket buys.
I half expect the 2011 schedule to be intrasquad scrimmages for the first 6 games and the other 6 games at home against a mish mash of military academies, bottom feeder WAC teams, and Michigan (whose falling apart at the seams).
"I think it's safe to say our concerns are many." -- Kirk Ferentz
by StoopsMyAss on Nov 4, 2009 4:13 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
ND 2010 schedule
Sept. 4: PURDUE
Sept. 11: MICHIGAN
Sept. 18: at Michigan State
Sept. 25: STANFORD
Oct. 2: at Boston College
Oct. 9: PITTSBURGH
Oct. 16: WESTERN MICHIGAN
Oct. 23: at Navy (at Meadowlands)
Oct. 30: TULSA
Nov. 6: (Bye)
Nov. 13: UTAH
Nov. 20: ARMY (at Yankee Stadium)
Nov. 27: at USC
"I think it's safe to say our concerns are many." -- Kirk Ferentz
by StoopsMyAss on Nov 4, 2009 4:26 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
the @ USC is for real
and maybe at Michigan State will be a problem. Otherwise, all backyard.
"I think it's safe to say our concerns are many." -- Kirk Ferentz
by StoopsMyAss on Nov 4, 2009 4:27 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Clausen?
In a word, NO. Case Keenum at Houston or Boise State’s QB are much more deserving, though you would never know it from the media that has been dying to give a ND QB the Heisman ever since Ron “It’s not IF he’ll win the Heisman, but how many” Pawlus was taking snaps.
BTW, speaking of Houston, James Cleveland is having a huge year for the Cougars as well.
I ate the blue ones ... they taste like burning.
by HoyaGoon on Nov 4, 2009 4:39 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Point.
…..because the Media really and truly wants a two-loss ND in a BCS game about as much as they want a no-loss Iowa NOT in one.
I don’t think it’s so much that they want to keep us out of a BCS game, as much as it is that they don’t think we deserve to play for the crystal football. I don’t think they really care much about Iowa playing, say, Oregon in the Rose Bowl.
by RossWB on Nov 4, 2009 5:39 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Also working against Oregon
Is the loss they will take against Stanford this weekend
No self-respecting man from Iowa goes anywhere without beer
by Hayden Fry's Moustache Ride on Nov 4, 2009 6:03 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
or at Arizona coming up.
One thing that I haven’t seen discussed is the somewhat real possibility of an Iowa-Arizona rematch in Pasadena.
As much as it would be awesome to go to Pasadena, it would kind of suck to have to beat the Wildcats a second time, which I have little doubt Iowa would.
by DonnyDonovan on Nov 4, 2009 10:34 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
It's late so I prob. won't get an answer but I'll ask anyways...
HS, Is Boise behind PSU solely because of their SOS? I would have thought that winning games (or more importantly, not losing games) would be paramount. I guess the same goes for Cincy. Just curious.
by Buddy Light on Nov 6, 2009 1:22 PM CST reply actions 0 recs



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