Iowa in Fiesta hangs on GTech & Cinncy winning
by StoopsMyAss on Nov 30, 2009 8:13 AM CST
Email
PrintReports are out that should Clemson beat Ga. Tech and Cinncinatti go undefeated it might influence the Fiesta Bowl.
How? Like this...
The Orange Bowl will get Clemson and the third at-large pick. The replacement and at-large picks could possibly leave the Orange Bowl with a Clemson v. TCU rematch, and bowls understandably HATE rematches. They could all conspire/work it out so something like this comes as a result:
Sugar with 1st pick (replacement) takes Alabama/Florida loser
Fiesta with 2nd pick (replacement) takes Cinncy
Orange with 3rd pick (at-large) takes Penn State
Fiesta with 4th pick (at-large) takes TCU
Sugar with 5th pick (at-large) takes Boise St.
Thus:
Sugar: Floribama v. Boise
Fiesta: Cinncy v. TCU
Orange: Penn St. v. Clemson
This creates an Orange Bowl with two of the largest fan followings in all of college sports and ensures it sells out. The ratings are going to be shot with Clemson anyway. Orange officials say, we want tickets sold...and they would be.
Fiesta now becomes a battle of the unbeatens and Brian Kelly is a potentially HUGE national story. He would most defintely accept the Notre Dame job if offered. He will be discussed endlessly until a Notre Dame coach is hired. If he is the guy they hire they will do it before or darn near the Fiesta Bowl kick-off making it suddenly a game for all Golden Domers to watch. Fiesta officials believe there would be lots of casual interest in this game and that would increase ticket sells. Kelly would NOT choose to back out of coaching his team in this game either, should he get the ND job.
Sugar is huge game IF Florida plays in it since it is the last temptation of Christ vs. Boise. If Bama is in the game it becomes the "will it happen again to Bama" bowl and people like to see Bama suffer.
Unless otherwise expressly indicated by BHGP editors, this FanPost is strictly the viewpoint of the author and is not endorsed by BHGP in any way.
35 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Possible, but not probable
The problem with the above scenario is that you’re basically asking the Fiesta to give up any hope of selling tickets, all in the name of helping out other bowls. I have no doubt the BCS bowls might talk amongst themselves to ensure the best arrangements possible, but this one just wouldn’t fly. No way the Fiesta takes two teams that collectively won’t sell any tickets. Cincy-TCU might be good, compelling tv, but it is ticket sales death. Cincy didn’t travel to the Orange Bowl last year, no way they’re bringing anyone out to Tempe. TCU will sell more tickets than Cincy, but that’s equivalent to being the smartest kid with downs. With these two, U of Phoenix Stadium would like a larger version of Ryan Field.
Plus, what incentive does the Fiesta have to take this hit? If Clemson were to win, then the Orange would be guaranteed significant sales just to Clemson fans alone, regardless of the other team. What reason does the Fiesta have to all but ensure an Orange sell-out while they take the dregs of ticket sales? I just don’t see what the advantage for the Fiesta in this proposed arrangement. And since they will pick before the Orange, to replace Texas, I don’t see them passing on Iowa’s guaranteed ticket sales.
I ate the blue ones ... they taste like burning.
I wonder how big the TV ratings would be, too.
Last year the Poinsettia Bowl pitted TCU (11-1, I believe) and Boise State (12-0); according to these figures, among non-BCS/Jan. 1 bowls, it got the 8th-best ratings — behind the Champs Sports (FSU/Wisco), Alamo (Mizzou/jNWU), Emerald (Cal/Miami), Holiday (Oregon/Okie St), Meineke Car Care Bowl (WVU/UNC), Cotton (Miss/Tx Tech), and Chick-Fil-A (LSU/GT). I dunno about you, but I see a common denominator there: all those bowls featured two teams from BCS conferences.
Granted, undefeated vs. undefeated has a definite cache and Brian Kelly may or may not give the bowl some extra juice if he’s off to ND after the game… but (a) do those factors offset the fact that it’s a mid-major team (even one as recognizable and beloved as Boise State) and a BCS team a few years removed from being a mid-major and (b) that it’s a risk. What if the ND position is filled by someone other than Kelly? They have to make up their minds on Sunday, not knowing what the next month may bring. I think bowls are in the position of minimizing risk whenever possible — especially in an economy as dreary as this one. This would be an interesting and fun game to see, but I don’t think it makes the most business sense for the Fiesta Bowl.
I agree that Cinncy v. TCU
is a risk. A much more secure choice is Iowa/Big Ten v. Boise St. — that would be the most secure pick they could make in terms of ticket sales and perhaps even TV.
But…this has been discussed on more than few sites, most prominently Stewart Mandel at SI. I wanted to put it out there. I could see both games being an upset too. I can see Clemson winning and Pitt winning.
At the end of the day, I think it is between Iowa and Penn State in Fiesta. I don’t see Fiesta passing on a Big Ten team. I think Iowa gets the edge because the Fiesta has wanted Iowa for years and they are the perceived “fair” pick between the two. Penn State just doesn’t guarantee much more than Iowa can deliver.
"I think it's safe to say our concerns are many." -- Kirk Ferentz
by StoopsMyAss on Nov 30, 2009 11:21 AM CST up reply actions
Plus
How much do tv ratings really matter? This year at least. Isn’t the BCS contract with Fox up after this year and a new one with ESPN starting next year? Either way, the ink on the next contract is already dry, impressive tv ratings this year won’t do anything to increase the amount of payout the BCS bowls receive. Might suck for Fox to have lower-rated games, but won’t really affect the bowls. My point is this, if there was ever a year that the bowls would not care as much about tv ratings, then it is probably this year because poor ratings will have almost no effect (unless the amount the bowls get from Fox is predicated on some sort of ratings threshold).
I ate the blue ones ... they taste like burning.
Yeah.
But…this has been discussed on more than few sites, most prominently Stewart Mandel at SI. I wanted to put it out there.
Yeah, it is an interesting possibility to ponder.
I could see both games being an upset too. I can see Clemson winning and Pitt winning.
I think Pitt has a halfway decent shot if they can control the game with their running (Lewis is a stud) and if the Wannstache can get his defense to mount a great effort to slow down Pike. At times, they’ve played great defense. But at other times, they’ve been shredded by NC State. If that happens, I don’t think it changes much in the way of the BCS, though — an 11-1 Cincy team would be attractive in terms of their record and accomplishments, but they bring so little else to the table (bad rating, bad traveling fanbase, not even the undefeated buzz) that I can’t see a BCS bowl taking them.
A Clemson upset (also very possible, considering how tight the regular season game between Clemson and GT was) would shake things up more in the BCS, but not in terms of getting two ACC teams into the mix — Ga Tech would be on a two-game losing streak (and likely out of the top 14 anyway). But it would mean TCU wouldn’t be an option for the Orange Bowl, since they wouldn’t stage a reg. season rematch there. They’d be picking between Boise and Cincy/Pitt and I think they’d take their chances with Boise, although they might try Pitt if they upset Cincy (no way they take Cincy after last year). Which would leave the Fiesta to take either TCU or Cincy/Pitt and I think they’d be happy to grab TCU in that case.
A Clemson win
Probably helps the Big Ten generally, and Iowa specifically. Clemson will bring a ton of fans to the Orange Bowl, Tech won’t. Thus, if Clemson were to win, the Orange Bowl wouldn’t have to be as worried about its possible matchup from a ticket sales standpoint, Clemson would make up enough of the slack to cover whichever mid-major they’re stuck with. That essentially frees up the Fiesta to take whoever they want without feeling guilty (and for the record, I think they would have done so anyway, fuck feeling guilty) and I’m guessing that team is Iowa.
I ate the blue ones ... they taste like burning.
Iowa to the Fiesta can only be upset
by a Nebraska win over Texas, IMO.
"I'm not doing any good back here."
and another thing...
FOX has already sold the advertising for this years BCS games, so eyeballs on TV sets isn’t as important as people think. Add to that the fact that this year is the last for FOX to carry to BCS and it’s even less important.
"I'm not doing any good back here."
by Hawkaloogie on Nov 30, 2009 11:27 AM CST up reply actions
Didn't see your post before I made mine above
where I pretty much took a long-winded approach to get the same place you did. Sorry about that, needless to say, I agree with what you wrote above.
I ate the blue ones ... they taste like burning.
I don't think that a Nebby upset
stops the Hawks to Fiesta.
If that is the case:
NC: Floribama/Cincy
Sugar: Floribama Loser
Orange: Texas
Fiesta: Iowa
Sugar: TCU
Unless you think that the Fiesta would pick Boise to match the Huskers and Broncos? Don’t see it happening.
http://www.rivalryesq.com/
The quintessential Big Ten smoking room.
by Bama Hawkeye on Nov 30, 2009 3:13 PM CST up reply actions
I agree with you...
I just think there is too much sentiment out there for the little guy, especially when that little guy is undefeated and pulled off the upset the last time they were there.
"I'm not doing any good back here."
Nebraska over Texas
Not gonna happen. Yes, there have been bigger upsets (Texas is a 2 TD fave), and while the Longhorns are good, they aren’t immortal.
I just don’t see it happening in Dallas. During McCoy’s final reg season game. Against a team from the Big 12 North.
So if Iowa’s hopes for the Fiesta hinge on Texas/Nebraska, I really like our chances. Unfortunately, I think there’s more to it than that.
by KentuckyThunderPussy on Nov 30, 2009 4:27 PM CST reply actions
Saturday's Games
a good day to smoke some hash and sludge on the couch.
Game 1 Cincy at Pitt (12 e)
Game 2 Fla vs Bama (4 e)
Game 3 GTech vs Clemson or Texas vs Nebraska (8 e)
by KentuckyThunderPussy on Nov 30, 2009 4:41 PM CST reply actions
What a wonderful idea...
/O'keefe'd
by Smokin Herb Grigsby on Nov 30, 2009 5:55 PM CST reply actions
Hawks to the Fiesta simplified
Only one team gets in from the ACC
1) Clemson wins and GT has three losses. GT wins and Clemson has 5 losses
2) Cincy wins and Pitt has three losses. Pitt wins and Cincy with one loss is not attractive.
3) Texas wins and no worries. NU wins and shit get complicated.
4) It hwas been longer since Iowa has been to a BCS game than Penn St. Iowa is the only team to win a bowl game last year. Iowa will travel to Tempe just as good as Penn St. Iowa beat Penn St and hung with OSU. Penn St. looked like ass against Iowa and OSU.
5) There is a huge contingent of Iowans in the Phoenix area.
Fuck the rest of those websites. Cheer for the Horns and on the outside Cincy and all will be good.
I learned a great many things in the Marines that helped me as a football coach. The Marines train men hard and to do things the right way, just as a football team must train. - Hayden Fry
by NileKinnickIronman on Nov 30, 2009 9:37 PM CST reply actions
That says it all
People have been asking me like crazy lately who we want to win and why and I think you just put it in the simplest terms and I agree 100%.
Right now I’m just contemplating wearing a sombrero to the Iowa-ISU wrestling meet for when we get the announcement of the Fiesta Bowl. And I wouldn’t mind getting under the skin of some Cyclowns.
by Hank Thrasher on Nov 30, 2009 10:52 PM CST up reply actions
Todd Mcshay is a Douchbag!
He said that Fiesta would pick TCU first and then Orange would take Penn St. Does Todd know the difference between his ass and his face? ….Apparently not. Why on earth would any bowl pick TCU first? That’s like volunteering to punch yourself in the nuts!
Funny, I've always refered to punching yourself in the nuts...
…as McShaying. Weird.
by Eyeheartfreedumb on Dec 2, 2009 11:39 AM CST up reply actions
There is yet another scenario woth considering
what if Florida naroowly loses to Alabama. And Texas loses to Nebraska. And Cinncy loses to Pitt.
That leave TCU to play in the National Championship…right? Well, maybe not. Maybe Florida drops to only #2. With Texas gone and Cinncy not leapfrogging and TCU so far behind Florida in the BCS now…it is not out of the realm of possibility that the mNC game is a rematch of Florida and Alabama. And what would that mean to the Sugar Bowl?
The Sugar would get first pick and take Texas. And this is how is would go from there:
Sugar – Texas v. Pitt/TCU
Fiesta – Penn State v. Nebraska
Orange – TCU/Pitt v. Ga. Tech/Clemson (if Clemson wins then it is Pitt here)
No way Fiesta lines up Nebraska v. Iowa….never.
"I think it's safe to say our concerns are many." -- Kirk Ferentz
I just don't see a rematch.
They had a chance when Ohio State and Michigan staged a classic game three years ago and passed then. Not to mention that the external pressure has been cranked way, way up on the BCS since then; if they want to guarantee that Orrin Hatch & Co. spend the next year sticking their noses into the BCS’ business, this is an excellent way to guarantee that.
And in that scenario, PSU v. Nebraska is more likely...
but I don’t think Iowa v. Nebraska is totally absurd. It might not excite the TV people, but the local merchants would probably be ECSTATIC to have two fanbases like that converge on the area. Apparently they were disappointed with the economic impact provided by Ohio State/Texas last year, since OSU fans had Fiesta fatigue (5th trip there in the last six years) and the Texas fans were ticked off they weren’t in the title game. I’m pretty sure that the reactions of Iowa and Nebraska fans would be 180 degrees different if that match-up was to somehow occur.
These bowl reps do all they can to avoid regional match-ups. Since Fiesta
would have an early choice I just don’t think there is any chance they would take two very low scoring teams from the same area. In fact, the latest buzz is sounding like Penn St. regardless of opponent. But we’ll see.
"I think it's safe to say our concerns are many." -- Kirk Ferentz
Which buzz is that?
There are so many conflicting stories out there, often from regional “sources” who have their own biases and interpret signs as such. Not saying that it isn’t the case, just that I think it’s far from determined with a (very) slight lean in Iowa’s favor.
I ate the blue ones ... they taste like burning.
It has beeen revealed that
Penn State is furiously selling themselves to Orange and Fiesta…mentioned on Penn St. news sites. They’re probably (educated guess) slightly on the inside track. Let’s put it this way, I am no longer going to be surprised or disappointed if Iowa is in Capital One bowl. I think it would be a mild upset for Iowa to be in a BCS bowl this year. I don’t think it fair or even sensible for anyone to turn up their nose to Iowa his year. But all things being equal then Fox might get the tiebreaking vote and they’ll choose storied program with storied coach.
"I think it's safe to say our concerns are many." -- Kirk Ferentz
I have lotsa money riding on Iowa vs. ANY SEC team.
My Big Ten hating friends (who clap for shiny things and anything Jesse Palmer types say) jumped at my offer to lay out $20 to each for an Iowa (plus spread) vs. SEC matchup. My greedy nature secretly longs for an Iowa/Ole Miss game, just to collect some easy moola and rub it in their faces.
by YouCanPutYourEddsInIt on Dec 2, 2009 10:20 AM CST up reply actions
Much as I want the cash from a BCS bowl
I like our odds better against LSU. Boise scares me
It never gets to be easy
by chitownhawkeye on Dec 2, 2009 4:37 PM CST up reply actions
Really?
That’s interesting. For us, I feel the opposite.
"For me the game wasn’t grounded in reality. It was about the uniform you put on that turned you into a warrior. It was about the mythology of the battle, the victory, the defeat, the struggle." - Mike Reid, PSU '69
To me, the Boise game completely comes down to our defense.
Can they pressure Moore and force him into some mistakes? If they can, I think we can definitely handle them. But from what I’ve seen, they seem to run a fair amount of that nickel-and-dime passing game that jNWU and Indiana have both used against us to great effect over the last 5 years or so. I watched them score like three straight touchdowns against Nevada on a play where the FB releases into the flats and the QB dumps it off to him and it brought back nightmares of Indiana doing that to us in 2007. And I don’t think it’s much of a stretch to suggest that Moore would be by far the best QB we’ve faced all year. It would help that one of his favorite targets is out for the bowl game with a leg injury, I imagine.
An LSU game would probably come down to which QB made the fewest mistakes and which coaching staff had the least awful clock management.
TCU-Boise State in the Fiesta?
Dennis Dodd seems to think it could happen.
Although Dodd is frequently a complete idiot, so it’s hard to put too much stock into this notion. It seems very odd to cite TV ratings as a potential reason why, considering the BCS bowls involving non-BCS schools have consistently been among the lowest rated in recent years. Granted, there’s never been one matching up two undefeated teams, but I still question whether or not that would dramatically increase — there’s just no indication that the TV viewing public wants to watch those teams (or non-brand name teams in BCS leagues, either) in great numbers. For all the hand-wringing by CFB writers (who I suspect are just bored of covering largely the same teams all the time) and CFB fans on the interwebs, a pretty significant portion of fans really would rather watch a 10-2 Ohio State team over a 12-0 Boise State or Utah team.
True
And, more importantly, tv ratings don’t really matter to the BCS this year. Or, for that matter, to Fox. Ad-time has already been bought and Fox loses the BCS to ESPN next year (deal already signed) so ratings don’t really matter, ratings this year will have no bearing on any of the parties’ interests. Thus, it is incredibly unlikely that any of the Bowls take a ticket sales death match-up like this one, not when there are two teams out there guaranteed to sell 40,000+ (Iowa or PSU). The only interest the bowls have this year is butts in the seats.
Besides, as you note, despite the media hand-wringing and touting ot the two undefeateds, no one would watch this game, ESPN and the talking heads especially. This strikes me as a guaranteed situation where everyone talks about it before hand, then ignores it as soon as it comes on.
I ate the blue ones ... they taste like burning.
Dodd is probably
looking at the TV ratings this game (TCU v. Boise) received last year in the Poinsettia Bowl in San Diego, and projecting from there. That game, the only game played that evening, got a 3.7 rating which is higher than the ND/Hawaii game which was also played unopposed. But, the actual attendance was 34K in a stadium that holds 70K.
Thus, I see no chance that this match-up would occur. I have also read some lucid stuff on the Idaho Statesman site that warns of a lower Boise fan turnout this time around in the Fiesta. Apparently the unemplyment rate is double what it was when they went last time.
"I think it's safe to say our concerns are many." -- Kirk Ferentz
Yeah
I posted this upthread:
Last year the Poinsettia Bowl pitted TCU (11-1, I believe) and Boise State (12-0); according to these figures, among non-BCS/Jan. 1 bowls, it got the 8th-best ratings — behind the Champs Sports (FSU/Wisco), Alamo (Mizzou/jNWU), Emerald (Cal/Miami), Holiday (Oregon/Okie St), Meineke Car Care Bowl (WVU/UNC), Cotton (Miss/Tx Tech), and Chick-Fil-A (LSU/GT).
It got a pretty good rating, but it also got beat by quite a few bowls featuring teams with worse resumes. I mean, the Champs Sports Bowl featured a couple of 7-5/6-6ish teams if memory serves and they did much better than the Poinsettia Bowl — because FSU is a TV draw. The undefeated v. undefeated aspect would add some juice to the game — but enough to make it worthwhile? I dunno. Really, if for some reason TV ratings really are what the Fiesta Bowl is most concerned about, Penn State should be their pick. They will draw better ratings than Iowa, TCU, or Boise State.
yeah, I don't think ratings will much of a factor at all for the Fiesta
they run a serious risk if they get 10K+ fewer people buying tickets than in the past. They feel a real committment to the local economy. But I think there is some Big Ten influence on the whole Penn State thing. I think the Big Ten offices realize that Iowa is on the verge of becoming a kind of elevating its status to an upper tier program and if the BCS edge out Iowa in favor of PennState this year that knocks back the program and sends a signal that the Big Ten is a three horse conference. This is a perception business and Penn State doesn’t need a BCS bowl to improve their Q rating, Iowa does. Iowa needs to go to a BCS this year and perform well, and ideally even get there next year and it could very well be on its way to low Tier One status.
"I think it's safe to say our concerns are many." -- Kirk Ferentz
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
