The Lickliter Way: Explained (sort of)
by StoopsMyAss on Nov 18, 2009 9:15 AM CST
in Iowa Hawkeyes Basketball
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PrintAfter last night's Duquesne game I decided to do some research on the so-called basketball system often referred to as The Butler Way that Iowa hired two years ago by way of Todd Lickliter. I thought I had a sense of what it was before, but watching Iowa play these first two games I was beginning to wonder what I was watching.
So, thanks to a handful of very informative articles on-line and a look at the NCAA Statistics Archive I think I now have a much better sense of what kind of team Todd Lickliter is trying to build at Iowa.
The first thing to know is that The Butler Way is not Todd Lickliter's invention. If anyone holds that distinction it would most likely be former Butler coach and current Athletic Director Barry Collier, working off of the values and principles of long-time Butler coach and Indiana basketball legend, Tony Hinkle.
Tony Hinkle coached at Butler from 1945 - 1970 and during that time instilled core values in the program that included humility, passion, unity, and accountability and to a certain degree subservience. After he retired in 1970 Butler's next two coaches attempted to make Butler a more progressive program that played a run and gun style of basketball, recruiting the best possible athletes they could get their hands on. But...after two coaches and 19 years of below .500 basketball, in 1989 Butler hired Barry Collier.
Collier promised to bring Butler back to the Hinkle values by recruiting players who were "team first" guys (mostly home grown from Indiana), totally committed to Collier, Butler and the program's core principles. Collier was successful quickly as he built a team-above-self style basketball team. In his second year he coached the team to the NIT, and in his third year he took Butler to the conference championship game and again to the NIT. The die had been cast and Butler was back on the map and in the NCAAs.
But how did he do it?
Collier believed in defense, defense, defense. Butler would become a team known for its intensity and strict adherence to fundamentally sound team defense. Butler did not then, and has really never been able to recruit great athletes. They acknowledged this limitation under Collier who coached to the strengths of the kind of players they knew they could recruit. Players who were desperate to play Div. I basketball and would sell their souls to do so. Butler evolved under Collier as teams filled with great guard play and guys who could play several positions, all of whom were good free throw shooters, players who could hit an open three, and would set screens and block out.
Over time Butler teams would annually look statistically like this:
Ranked among the top nationally
- Points allowed (usually in the low to mid 60s)
- Defense shooting percentage (low to mid 40s)
- Free throw percentage (but not made free throws as his teams did not get to the line often)
- Three-point FGs made (around 9-10 per game) with a decent percentage (high 30s or better)
- Turnovers allowed (usually fewer than 10 per game)
- Points per game (high 60s)
Ranked among the bottom nationally
- Steals
- Blocked shots
- Assists
- Rebound margin
So, you're beginning to get the picture. Some fundamentals were elaborated upon by Thad Matta who succeeded Collier in 2000 for one year. Collier left to take the head-coaching job at Nebraska in 2000 and it is worth noting that Collier was not able to duplicate his Butler success at Nebraska and left there in 2006 season with an 89-91 record and zero 20-win seasons. Matta brought in a few more defensive principles from Dick Bennett who was a Wisconsin coaching legend and at UW at the time. It is fair to say Matta further refined The Butler Way in his lone season at Butler. Matta saw even greater value in the 3-point shot and making EVERY possession count. As usual, under Matta they were a Top Ten team defense.
Lickliter succeeded Matta in 2001 and saw instant success using The Butler Way. Lickliter would win 26 or more games in three of his six seasons at Butler.
FROM BUTLER TO IOWA
So, has The Butler Way translated to Iowa? Let's look at the statistics for some clues. First, let's look at Iowa's national ranking from the 2008-9 season in the areas that are at the CORE of The Butler Way
- Points allowed - ranked 14th allowing 59 pts/game
- Defense shooting percentage - ranked 138th at 44%
- Free throw percentage - ranked 26th at 74%
- Three-point FGs made -ranked 71st in percentage made at 8.1/game at 36%
- Turnovers allowed - ranked 58th at 12.5/game
- Points per game - 60.1
Okay, so Iowa's defense shooting percentage allowed ranking last year was way too low and will need to improve for this system to work. Also, the number of three point FGs made is too low and the percentage needs to improve as well. There are also too many turnovers allowed. Ball control is crucial to the The Butler Way and last year Iowa just wasn't efficient with the ball. It is obvious to me now that Tony Freeman and Jeff Peterson were not the model point guard for Lickliter. Lickliter wants a general on the court who sets the tone for how the team will handle the ball. He also wants a subservient point guard who does whatever he asks and is a mirror reflection of Lickliter's values and ideals. I think the PG position is huge for Lickliter. At the end of the day, Iowa's shortfalls in these areas led to Iowa scoring about 10 points a game too few. But defensively Iowa was exactly where all these Butler teams usually are in the rankings...top 15.
To finish it off...Iowa was predictably ranked near the bottom last year in:
- Steals - ranked 319th out of 330 teams
- Blocked shots - ranked 283rd
- Assists - ranked 258th
- Rebound margin - ranked 197th
Again, most of these stats are not relevant to The Butler Way. Butler rarely recruits tall and/or athletic players who can block shots or make steals. Butler packs it in and dares other teams to make three point shots. Once they do, Butler extends out to the three-point line. Iowa did the same thing. But to conclude with last year's team, Iowa's assist to turnover ratio did not cut it (they averaged 3 more turnovers than the system can tolerate) but the rest is within the range of the system's tolerance.
I am going to suggest that Lickliter is building this team from the defense up and out. He is trying to get the defensive principles firmly in place and expects that offensively they will grow and become better ball handlers, more efficient from the three point line, and able to reduce turnovers. If they do not, however, you can expect the results of the first two games. But this is what The Lickliter Way is...this is how it is going to be:
- Methodical on the offensive end, in order to tire out the opposing team's defense and limit touches for them
- Win games scoring 60 - 65 points a game or even less
- Defensive intensity, winning the lose balls, taking charges, generally making life miserable for the other team with physical play but not particularly athletic play
- Close games won on the free throw line and/or with clutch late game three point shooting and good defense
Lickliter probably wants to evenually build depth too.
Lastly, let's look at Iowa's first two games this season to see how they are performing in terms of The Lickliter Way:
- Points allowed - 57 points/game (this is about where the system wants it)
- Defense shooting percentage - 39%/game (this is better than last year and right where the system wants it)
- Free throw percentage - 61%/game (15% below acceptability)
- Three-point FGs made -5.5/game (5 too few) at 20% (15-20% below acceptability)
- Turnovers allowed - 15.5/game (more than 5 too many for the system's liking)
- Points per game - 50 points/game (10 below last year and 15 below the ideal)
Bottom line, Iowa is doing defensively what The Lickliter Way would like from a statistical point of view. Offensively, however, is another story. It comes down to Iowa having too many turnovers, and making too few three point shots at too low of a percentage. If Iowa improves behind the three-point line in number of makes and in terms of percentage and takes care of the ball MUCH BETTER...then you might see better results. I know what you're thinking though: once the Big Ten season starts the Hawkeyes will face better, more skilled teams ofeensively and Iowa's defensive statistics may not hold--and offensively Iowa will face quicker, taller teams with more experience so they may regress even further there as well. You're right and Lickliter would say this is the beginning of the beginning.
FINAL NOTE: I can see why Lickliter and his system was hired at Iowa. It is, simplistically stated, a basketball version of how Iowa wins football games. We'll see if it pans out.
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Well done
Do you have any theories on why Collier failed at Nebraska? Possibly players not buying into the system? My fear is this will be the end result here; I’m not one of the nutjobs calling for his head. But after year 5, we should be seeing some positive results, or……
Players...
I think Collier had a hard time getting good players. No system works with substandard players. He was no longer in Indiana where basketball is like Florida is to football. You can get second tier players in Indiana that grow into first tier players. IN fact, Butlers best players over the past thre or four seasons were guys with one and two star ratings who redshirted, played sparingly for two years and then it all clicked for them in their junior and senior year. Basketball culture in Indiana is such that guys will do that…wait and wait to develop. At a school like Nebraska….no athletes and no gym rats…it just is a killer. To be fair, no one wins at Nebraska.
"I think it's safe to say our concerns are many." -- Kirk Ferentz
by StoopsMyAss on Nov 18, 2009 10:13 AM CST up reply actions
Exactly.
This is why its bad that all of Alford’s players didn’t leave right away. We could of built depth since then. We have had to rebuild each year instead of just improving. I think the players we have now will stay, adn we have some nice recruits coming in next year.
Iowa should have hired Anthony Grant 2 years ago and none of this abysmal crap would be happening. Is GrantMyAss screen name taking yet? :)
As a Hawkeye alumni that grew up in Nebraska, Collier’s style was awful to watch. He was a good guy and his teams played hard but they could not compete in Big 12. Undersized 2-3s and soft 6"10 guys that would rather shoot 3 than rebound did not translate to any success.
The same thing is happening here and Iowa should just cut their losses and move on but this is Iowa. Too many fans and weak kneed administration officials would rather give “patience” and watch the whole Big 10 pound this team into submission for however long it takes. This program is on a death march to permanent obscurity. I would like to think that I am being hyperbolic but really, it is the reality of the facts.
I would rather have Nebraska’s coach Doc Saddler than Lickliter. At least his style is somewhat bearable to watch.
"You taught me a lesson, I was going to give someone the benefit of doubt, and I almost did, then something said, no don't, don't, its not for you, its not my thing" Larry David,
Mac G?
Isn’t that the music video director that made the grrl-power Charlie’s Angels movies while “on a death march to permanent obscurity”?
by Eyeheartfreedumb on Nov 18, 2009 3:31 PM CST up reply actions
What's your point?
You do know there aren’t any rules for expressing frustration at a failing program, even if you happen to cheer for them, right? That doesn’t make them any less fans of the program than you.
You think this team is going to turn it around? Fantastic. Most people don’t feel that way. If this team wins 20 games, you can tell everyone how short-sighted they were, but this program hasn’t started 0-2 in almost 40 years and haven’t lost their first two home games since the 1931-1932 season and people have a justified reason to think this team is shit.
by Twin Cities Hawk on Nov 18, 2009 4:03 PM CST up reply actions
I wasn't trying to say anyone was less of a fan than ME...
…it’s just that all of this dramatic fatalism drags me down, and we’re only a few games into the season (though admittedly, as we continue to lose I’m less enthusiastic about this team or basketball in general- – there, see, are y’all happy?- – you’ve infected me, too).
I don’t know if we’ll turn it around, but that’s my only point. No one knows what will happen, and the fun is in finding out. I remember listening to people the day after the UNI football game (after the “I-feel-like-I-just-had-sex” effect had worn off) saying, “Oh, we might as well pack it in for the season” and “If we play like that against UNI, I’m giving the rest of my tickets away.” Seriously.
I know a comparison to the football team is a stretch, because after all the football team had a chance of still making a go of it, whereas the b-ball team is losing to less-thans. And I get the disappointment. I grew up during Doctor Tom’s years, and had family that sent news clippings and other memorabilia to my family during Lute Olsen’s time (we lived in Panama then). I, too, miss watching us in having a shot at making the NCAAs.
I don’t know what will happen, but I will watch and see. And I’m not doing it so I can possibly gloat later, it’s so I can REALLY enjoy it (with y’all) when we start winning.
by Eyeheartfreedumb on Nov 25, 2009 10:43 PM CST up reply actions
sweet, a screenname burn
much more effective than, say, intelligently responding to his points and continuing some sort of worthwhile discussion
Dude, c'mon...
…Yeah, I chuckled to myself when I wrote it, but it was a burn to the video guy, not the commenter (I was trying to back slowly away from the “fan” comment [below]).
by Eyeheartfreedumb on Nov 25, 2009 10:25 PM CST up reply actions
Besides...
…I meant it in a light-hearted sort of way (I hope I didn’t hurt anyone’s feelings). Comedy-fail. But that seems to happen a lot on this site (I blame it on all of the new traffic [not you NorseHawk or you TCH]). I’m starting to feel like the Lenny Bruce of the interwebs or something (maybe someday I’ll be appreciated and understood- – tongue planted firmly in cheek).
by Eyeheartfreedumb on Nov 25, 2009 10:56 PM CST up reply actions
The defense is going to keep them in a lot of games
And they are going to win some unexpected games when they shoot remarkably well. It’s just hard to watch a team that is currently so offensively abysmal.
I really love great defense, but damn it… If you are going to be a jump shooting team, your players need to make fucking jump shots. And free throws.
I’m trying to stay positive because this team is really young and the incoming recruiting class appears to be really good, but it is hard to hold out a lot of hope at this point.
by Wegher Please! on Nov 18, 2009 9:49 AM CST via mobile reply actions
The defense played well in the last game, but has really not been that good in the Lickliter-era
We just slow the pace way the fuck down, so the scores are low.
don't totally discount the
shooting percentage they are forcing other teams to shoot. It is not exclusively slow down. Teams are only shooting 39% so…there is some defense being played. Sure, they’re losing and playing horribly but they are forcing teams to miss or playing teams that cannot shoot. We’l find out as the season wears on…if Iowa keeps teams in the 39 – 42% shooting range then Lickliter deserves some credit there. But great defense alone will not do it. Just as Iowa’s football team cannot do it with defense alone.
"I think it's safe to say our concerns are many." -- Kirk Ferentz
by StoopsMyAss on Nov 18, 2009 11:29 AM CST up reply actions
Well yes
But it’s two games. Against pretty marginal opponents. Over the course of his entire tenure, the shooting percentage defense has not been all that spectacular, as noted above. I would imagine the number this year is going to shoot way up once Big Ten play starts.
One more category
Pace — Lickliter teams play very, very, very slooooooow. Here is how Lickliter’s teams rank in terms of pace the past few years (stats from kenpom.com):
08-09: 56.7 poss/game (344th out of 344 teams)
07-08: 59.5 poss/game (334th out of 341 teams)
06-07 [Butler]: 58.4 poss/game (332nd out of 334 teams)
05-06 [Butler]: 59.4 poss/game (327th out of 332 teams)
04-05 [Butler]: 58.1 poss/game (327th out of 330 teams)
03-04 [Butler]: 57.9 poss/game (325th out of 326 teams)
In comparison, in Alford’s last year, Iowa was 221st in pace at 67.6 poss/game.
The slow-down strategy is a common one for underdogs (see Princeton, Air Force), because it reduces the number of possessions in the games and ups the variability of the result (a really good explanation can be found here: http://www.rawbw.com/~deano/articles/tempo.html).
I would argue that the extreme slowness that Iowa plays makes them seem like they are good on defense, but doesn’t actually make them good on defense (Iowa ranked 216th in the country last year in points per possession). It also makes watching games (season ticket holder here) a brain-melting bore. It would be one thing if we were winning (although it still wouldn’t be what I’d call fun basketball), but considering how poorly we’re doing, it’s not surprising that the arena is half-empty.
Attendance
The box score says 8k were there last night but that’s obviously the paid attendance – how many people were actually there?
by jobi wan kenobi on Nov 18, 2009 10:06 AM CST up reply actions
looked like 5-6k
It was fucking depressing
That seems generous
I saw entire sections with fewer than 10 people in them. For real.
I got more rhymes than Wade Lookingbill's got dunks
Yeah, maybe
The section behind the basket on the opposite end of the court from the student section had like two people. When they tried to start the “I-O-W-A” chant, we had to do the I and the W just to make it even sort of work.
This is very important
and my goal was not to do an analysis of the value of the system but merely to identify the system because I had lost track of what it was that Lickliter is trying to do.
I think the system he uses does try to limit possessions. I read several ariticles that stated possession success as a CORE value. In a Todd Lickliter wet dream we force teams to lose patience while we take a sweet time moving the ball sure-handedly around until a wide open three or lay-up emerges. And, if we get fouled, all the better.
It is a system that is very much geared toward junior/seniors who have been in the system for a while.
"I think it's safe to say our concerns are many." -- Kirk Ferentz
by StoopsMyAss on Nov 18, 2009 10:08 AM CST up reply actions
That's a great breakdown of what I've been trying to tell my family and friends...
…this team is going to improve and surprise some people this year. I’ve been using the basketball version of our football team line for a while now. It’s a cerebral way of making good players better than they are, but it comes down to making the limited number of shots you take. I’ve always been a defensive basketball player (I was a 5’11" wide bodied Center— or 5 man— in high school, going up against 6’8"+ guys, so I had to know how to make the most of what I had) so I took note of what Lick was doing in his first year. It isn’t pretty if you’re going up against better athletes, but it can work when you commit to the system. This is why we keep hearing that Lick was trying to get the right guys for his system (it’s not normal basketball, but when it works it’s like a level-headed version of the Bob Knight fundamentals style).
I still think this team is going to surprise some people, and probably end up taking a Big Ten team or two off of the NCAA bubble at the end of the season. I’m predicting NIT this year, but next year people should look out. [That could all be my homerism coming out, but on the flip side the success curve with this style of play is HUGE, and once we start making baskets we will start winning.]
I agree it isn’t “fun basketball” to watch per se, but when we start diving for the ball and taking charges (young guys laying it all on the line) it sure can be exciting (I’m thinking of Wisconsin a few years ago- – they never scored much, but it was still exciting basketball to watch). Anyway, we need to start making baskets and winning games. It will come.
by Eyeheartfreedumb on Nov 18, 2009 10:04 AM CST reply actions
Lickliter probably loved the
Villanova team that beat Georgetown in (I think) 1985 by slowing it down and making 70% of their shots.
"I think it's safe to say our concerns are many." -- Kirk Ferentz
by StoopsMyAss on Nov 18, 2009 10:10 AM CST up reply actions
I agree
that we will surprise a few people this year but that’s not the intended result. I think 3 or 4 years from now is when we’ll really see the results that Lick is looking for. I’ll give him a shot, it’s just too bad that I know several long time season ticket holders that didn’t even re-up this year. And I’m talking about people who’ve been buying season tix since the early 70’s. I hope he gets enough of a chance from the AD to run his (Butler’s) system for long enough.
Jermelle Lewis is workin' the Minnesota D like a part time job.
by grillinhawk on Nov 18, 2009 10:12 AM CST up reply actions
What could derail Lickliter is transferring
his system requires guys to stay the full four years. It is not conducive to JC players or to early departures. He needs freshmen to come in and stay with it. If we lose a couple of guys this summer to transfer then regardless of their ability he keeps the team young and that just is a killer for a system like this. he need even distribution across the classes and strong senior play.
"I think it's safe to say our concerns are many." -- Kirk Ferentz
by StoopsMyAss on Nov 18, 2009 10:15 AM CST up reply actions
I agree that continuing transfers will kill the system, but...
…the guys he has coming in are coming to play for him with (I hope) full understanding of what he is trying to do. I’m sure it was hard for Alford’s guys, and for any young high school-ish aged players to make the transition.
When you are 17 and 18 and used to being one of the better players in your area, you get the ball and your goal is to take shots. High school coaches push their best shooters to shoot a lot because percentages-be-damned if a good player keeps shooting you will eventually score points. These kids drive with abandon when they want (they often pick up a foul if they don’t make it) and pull up for jumpers when they want because even if they brick it they will get the ball back in about 20 seconds and have another chance to create something.
Kids learn early that this is how you get a college recruiter’s attention and make it to the next level.
Lick’s system is the exact opposite of that. It’s all about tempo control and letting the system create shots for you. So going from a “track meet” style of game, where you get as many opportunities as you want/create, to a slowed down and deliberate style- – well, it can be frustrating and confounding to players who just want to use their abilities and not their head.
The thing is, once executed properly, it can also be frustrating to an opposing team that’s used to running everyone out of the gym. When you slow down the tempo it disrupts their flow and can actually throw play-makers out of their rhythm. That’s when this system really starts to pay dividends.
by Eyeheartfreedumb on Nov 18, 2009 3:45 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
I want to feel the way you do...
I’ve been telling myself that Duquesne and UTSA are decent teams that might be in some sort of postseason at the end of the year. And I’ve been reminding myself that we are starting (or giving significant playing time) to two brand new frosh guards.
However, I’m not wild about the idea that we have to wait to “make shots” to win some games. If you are going to schedule like Iowa always has (one or two decent non-conf oppponents, the other Iowa schools, and a bunch of crap) then you need to beat the crappy teams. Because we haven’t gone much better than .500 in conference for a long time, and there is no way we win more than 4 Big Ten games this year.
I've sentenced boys younger than you to the gas chamber. Didn't want to do it. I felt I owed it to them.
-- Judge Smails
by WaterlooChazz on Nov 18, 2009 8:36 PM CST up reply actions
This wasn't meant as...
…an “I’m smarter” kind of comment, I just fully agree with the breakdown and think it will work (given time- -if that happens).
by Eyeheartfreedumb on Nov 25, 2009 10:59 PM CST up reply actions
Indeed.
Which is why all the out transfers this year weren’t as destructive to his system as they were for just plain winning games on talent alone. Those guys weren’t his recruits anyway but the kids he did get in nor his system are ready. I think that’s why the attendance from the fans and vote of confidence from the AD are going to get important. The attendance to show the players we have confidence, and the AD to keep Lickliter content enough to actually WANT to be here and develop a program.
Jermelle Lewis is workin' the Minnesota D like a part time job.
He's No Rookie
Very strong analysis….the real problem here is that it’s Lickliter Year 3….we’re seeing the kinds of issues that a coach should have in his first year of transitioning the program to where he wants it. Instead, we have a guy who is having 4 guys transfer from last year’s team, and we still can’t hold onto the ball. I’m not sure we’ve seen a season of basketball as bad as this one’s going to be. An 0-fer conference season seems to be legitmately on the table. Even worse, apathy about the team and program is starting to set in, as you can see from the attendance records. I don’t see how Lickliter gets a fourth year, or why he should. It’s not that there aren’t some good young pieces to work with here, but again, we’re three years into this — the pieces from 2 years ago should be leading this team into some kind of post-season play by now.
Ugh...
…if you can’t be positive, at least refrain from dooming these kids’ season before it even starts. An 0-fer in conference? Not likely. And if it does happen, THEN you should put Lick and his system down, but unless they are getting consistently blown out by Big Ten opponents, just cheer for them to get better. That is, if you are an actual fan of the program.
by Eyeheartfreedumb on Nov 18, 2009 11:48 AM CST up reply actions
Fan of the program.
Who’s not pulling for them to get better? That’s what this is sort of all about. All I’m pointing out is that any analysis of the ‘09-’10 team should include that we’re in the third year of the coach. The lack of hope has become part of the problem, witness the empty seats.And I’d defy you to find a year when Iowa lost their first two games of the year to two teams that wouldn’t rank in the Top 100. Just sayin’ that really doesn’t bode well for the Big 10 season, particularly when it looks to be the toughest league in the nations. But believe me, I’d love to proven wrong with an 18-0 conference record.
Amen Goodman64
Year 3 and these people are living in some fake reality. No one can be critical of the shitty product because then we are all knee jerk, coach firing hating types. My biggest beef is that Lickliter’s teams have absolutely tanked the past 2 seasons and showed no signs of improvement. So maybe this year after sucking at beginning, we might win a play in game at the Big 10 tourney, WHEEE!
The logic is maybe the Hawks will be good in 2 or 3 years by Lickliter’s 5th or 6th year? This program is awful and there are no signs that it will be improving anytime soon. I guess losing at home but holding 2 teams to below 40 percent shooting is some glimmer of hope. Give me a break.
"You taught me a lesson, I was going to give someone the benefit of doubt, and I almost did, then something said, no don't, don't, its not for you, its not my thing" Larry David,
Look, I now have a better grasp of where you're coming from...
…but don’t you think “Fire the coach after two full seasons and two games” is a bit knee jerk (if that wasn’t what you meant, then I guess I misunderstood you), but don’t you also think it’s detrimental to the program to become known as the town that runs their coaches out on rails (Name Redacted didn’t get sent packing for a while, but there was always a good portion of the fanbase that wanted him gone and rejoiced when it finally happened, and the rest of the country watched that sad saga).
I hope Bob Bowlsby knows how badly he fucked our basketball team.
by Eyeheartfreedumb on Nov 25, 2009 11:11 PM CST up reply actions
My bad...
…I mistook your (and Mac G’s) pessimism for… well, pessimism. I mean, look, this is essentially a 1st and 2nd year team (circumstances were a little out of Lick’s control- – who plans for 4 guys to transfer just as the team is starting to come together?) and they’ve got some tallent but very little experience. I’m sure there are TONS of coaches who could have taken the anemic “squad” that Alford left behind (where’d he go, by the way?) and taken us to the Sweet 16 by year 2- – however, I can’t think of any.
I just think it’s a waste of time to write these guys off two games into a 30+ game season. I’m not deluded, and I don’t think we’re going to the Sweet 16 THIS year either, but to say that the trajectory of this season is set and we are going to have the worst year ever, and that the coach shouldn’t come back next year is just ludicrous.
Based on the start of the season last year (for fuck sakes, Drake was the best team in the state) would anyone have expected that we’d pull off some of those wins that we got in conference play?
Again, I’m not saying that if we suck we shouldn’t talk/complain about it. Sucking sucks! But until they prove that they can’t hang (with a few games under their belts) let’s just do the wait-and-see thing.
by Eyeheartfreedumb on Nov 18, 2009 4:08 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Agreed
Eye, I’m perfectly content to wait until the season is over to put Lick’s house up for sale :)….seriously, my concern is just that the two losses so far are on a par with, well, nothing that I can really remember in an Iowa basketball season. I hope to God I’m wrong and they improve, because as it stands now, it’s difficult to see how this team is going to total 10 wins (Let’s assume they won’t beat Texas). I really wish I was kidding. If/when they get to 10, you/they have my apologies.
Again, my larger issue is that here we are in Year 3 of Lick (and, btw, doesn’t he take something of a hit for the transfers — not Kelly or Tyler Smith — but at least the ones he sort of invited to leave?) and you have to question whether BOTH the short-term and long-term future of the program are in better shape than they were when he was handed the keys. Alford sucked, but he had 9 Big 10 wins in his last year. Lick has 11 in 2 years. Combine that with the inevitability that the Hawkeyes will set a record for lowest attendance in a season, and I’m just not sure three years later you say “Nice work, Todd, try again next year.” Believe me, I’m not blaming the kids…but maybe we cut our losses after what might be a historically bad season rather than endure nine seasons of mediocrity (or worse) like we did with the last guy. I’m seriously all for patience, but I can’t reward a program’s retreat in a coach’s third year.
If they don't start putting butts in seats...
…Iowa basketball may never recover. What halfway decent recruit is gonna want to play in an empty arena (renovation idea: take every seat in Carver out, and for every ten seats taken out a Barcalounger goes in- – we could be the most comfortable empty arena in the country, though by then we’ll be losing to City High in the opener)? We may just have to resign ourselves to the fact that WE’LL NEVER BE GOOD AGAIN and our former players all SUCK AT LIFE. {Oooh, vitriol and bombastic statement feel kind of good.}
Upside: I think in a couple more years we will be so bad I’ll be able to play.
by Eyeheartfreedumb on Nov 25, 2009 11:25 PM CST up reply actions
That isn't a swipe at you goodman...
…I’ve honestly given up the fight and seen the light. We’re terrible.
However, I’ll never stop watching (as long as they put us on t.v.) even if we never make the NIT again. I still have hope.
by Eyeheartfreedumb on Nov 25, 2009 11:29 PM CST up reply actions
Great point on the Point Guard
It’s the most important position in this offense and Lick hasn’t had one that really fits the system. Kelly was the closest to a fit we’ve seen so far.
I think Tucker and Payne COULD make it work but Tucker’s got a little Tony Freeman in him.
I have some thoughts on BBall but I’m going to sit on them for now until I actually watch a few more games and get a better sense of what’s going on.
by Internet Legend on Nov 18, 2009 10:35 AM CST reply actions
Isn't it rather concerning
that Lickliter only stumbled upon using Jake as a point guard as a last resort last year? That he either didn’t recognize or didn’t want to admit that Jake was the only guy who could create anything offensively?
Lickliter scrapped much of his offensive system and just let Jake create, and only went that direction because he knew he had no other choice to be competitive last year. This year, he’s returned to the system, and results are regressing to the (very modest) mean.
They’ll have a few nights where they get hot and drain double-digit threes, but if they’re starting the year this cold against this schedule, there’s not a lot of reason for optimism. Once this team hits the Big Ten, it’s going to get ugly in a hurry. Thank goodness for Kevin Coble’s deformed left foot. It’s the body part that might head off an Iowa oh-fer.
by Cattlefeeder on Nov 18, 2009 10:52 AM CST up reply actions
The Jake Kelly transfer is all that more devestating, then
Not that it wasn’t the right thing for both parties, given the tragedy of Jake’s mother, but Jake was ready to be the man in this system, and he’d developed reliable point skills to lead the young team. The loss of Jake means two more years of rebuilding.
Wonderful analysis and summary. Thank you.
by YouCanPutYourEddsInIt on Nov 18, 2009 10:39 AM CST reply actions 1 recs
I think we should give him a full 5 years
By that time he will have only his players on the team (Alford’s guys leaving killed us early on). we will have upperclassmen who have perfected the system. We are a young team with some talent. Its frustrating, but we almost won last night with an absolute horrendous shooting performance.
You've pretty much got it right
I’ve probably watched way more Butler basketball than your typical non-alum as my wife is Butler alum from the era when they made the Sweet 16 the first time (under Lickliter). The basic idea is that by limiting possessions, your excellent and frequent three-point shooting along with rarely turning the ball over should give you a good per-possession offense and a high eFG%, while forcing a lot of bad shots for the other team and holding them to a low percentage will give you a solid per-possession defense.
The better Butler team of Lickliter’s era though was the one where they had Mike Green at point, who could penetrate and even crash the boards (I think he led the team in rebounding) while being pretty good at avoiding the turnover. The point guard doesn’t necessarily rack up the assists in the system because of all the passing and the slow pace, but he has to be able to handle pressure, and it helps if he can drive when the shot clock gets low and create a drive-and-kick. Along with their three point gunners (Graves and Campbell) and enough size down low to not get totally destroyed (with Crone also able to shoot from the outside pretty well), they beat a vastly more athletic Maryland team and then gave defending (and eventual) champ Florida all they could handle. And there wasn’t a recruiting star in the bunch — Graves was just a pure shooter from the Indiana sticks, and Green was a transfer from Towson.
Stevens will do even better at Butler by having better talent on hand. Howard was a Top 100 guy with IU and Purdue offers, Kentucky tried to get in on Shelvin Mack (one of their two starting ballhandlers) late, and Gordon Hayward is a 6’8" or 6’9" beanpole who has good handling skills, is a great rebounder and shoots the lights out from deep. The team was supposed to be middle of the Horizon last year starting three freshmen and a sophomore and won it again anyways. Hayward was a major reason, the Purdue offer should have been an indication that maybe some people were underrating him.
The Jake Kelly loss is a huge blow, he really was a good system fit. A tall guard with ball skills and can shoot? Would have been big both for the defensive system and on offense. You guys have just had rotten luck between Tyler Smith and Jake Kelly.
by Yinka Double Dare on Nov 18, 2009 10:57 AM CST reply actions
Thanks StoopsMA
For digging into this. I had inklings of what “the system” was supposed to be but now you’ve provided some hard metrics. I seem to recall Lickliter himself saying that they took two years (cripes) to get the defense “installed” (my word) and that over the summer / Europe trip they implemented more of the offense (hard to see that in the first two games but ok). I’m surprised the number of assists is so low but that’s probably more a matter of pace. I would expect the assists : total baskets ratio to be pretty high, though, in this system.
This is more professional than anything I've read anywhere.
I don’t want to be an intertuber, yapping trash or blindly defending the guy. The mystery for me is why he has been such a lackluster recruiter — would you rather play for Butler or Iowa? — and why:
a) his teams look so grim and unhappy
b) we can’t shoot free throws any more
c) an offense built around draining threes can’t drain threes
I note as well that one of the dominant features of every Tom Davis team (BC, Stanford, here, Drake) everywhere was board strength. I’m not sure why, if you move from a mid-major to Iowa, you don’t change your recruiting profile to reflect your opportunities: i.e., recruit a few studs like Acie Earl who can clean the boards. How does adding rebounding to the Butler Way diminish the Butler Way? You can’t just move from Butler to Iowa City and not adjust. Similarity: not sameness.
The bit about the PG mirroring the head coach is, I think, the key. Lickleiter wants total control of the game, and he has been ruthless when not provided that by our PG.
There is a bottom line, though. Iowa can’t afford three more years of an empty CHA. I just don’t think the economics work. BBall and FBall have to carry 25 teams.
Mr. Boh Knows ...
I mean, seriously,
did we be shooting ugly threes last night? Man, ugly. Tucker had a good shot last year and now? What’s up with that?
Mr. Boh Knows ...
He just had an off night
Same with Gatens. That happens to everyone, and it can kill teams like us who live and die by the three. For the most part, they were only off by a little bit, and their form still looks solid to me. The season is two games old.
What I'm more cocerned about than the actually shooting itself is the inability to get open looks
The whole offense is a lot of standing around and guys clustered together. It’s a mess. The spacing is terrible, they don’t really move the ball around that much, and no one ever looks to drive and kick.
I think Bellanca makes a very important point
these last two years I have never seen more dour teams. I know the pressure is on and losing is no fun but where are the high energy guys? The “hey guys, let’s go!” types? I love Matt Gatens but he is not a “on the floor leader” type. This team looks leaderless to me. Tucker is clearly “the guy” and he is very dispassionate. He cannot lead this team emotionally. They need a Ricky Stanzi…someone who looks like he not only gets it but is the consciousness of the team. I thought Gatens would be that guy. He isn’t. You’re born with that and Gatens strikes me as a solid, quiet guy. Kind of a Shonn Greeen type…let’s his play speak.
Now, I could see Cully Payne being that guy but he is only two games into his career. So, we’ll see. But, Iowa looks joyless and lacking in passion and energy. That is something that, to me, falls on the coach. And once they go, say, 2-8 on the season, that will only be much worse.
Another complaint…where are the bounce passes. Last night there were five or six interceptions of passes into the lane. If they used the bounce pass they all work, instead they’re picked off. I found that problematic.
I don’t think he is going anywhere after this season. Even if they win 5 total games. He gets another season. But, if guys transfer again and as Bellanca says, they money doesn’t come in. They will have to do something no matter how sound the notion of this system seems on paper.
"I think it's safe to say our concerns are many." -- Kirk Ferentz
by StoopsMyAss on Nov 18, 2009 11:42 AM CST up reply actions
I guess
I think the whole lack of leadership and passion thing is probably less important than the “being bad at basketball” thing. One thing at a time.
And yeah the bounce pass thing is infuriating. I don’t know how you don’t learn how to do that well at some point between grade school and college ball.
Lack of bounce passes and
jumping up and passing – most of this is freshman still figuring out that you can’t do that stuff at this level like they did in high school. Cully needs to feed those bounce passes into the lane intead of the hand-high pushes. May keeps leaving his feet to pass and getting stuck.
One exception: I think that Lick teaches that the “jump over the baseline and pass across to the corner” pass is a good pass – I thought I read that somewhere but that could be wrong. I still think it puts you in the same boat as any other jump-pass.
I like May a lot, but yeah
He’s clearly still adjusting to the fact that he can’t just jump over everyone else on the court anymore. There were more than a couple where he took off, realized he didn’t have a shot, and wound up doing something retarded.
Gatens and Tucker
Their slow start has been the most disheartening part for me. If they stay mired in extended slumps this season, it’s going to be a depressing winter on the hardwood.
by LowcountryHawk on Nov 18, 2009 1:50 PM CST up reply actions
I think those guys need a Jake Kelly type
who can break down the defense…they are not the type who can start an offensive possession. They are guys who close the possession (Tucker with the kick out pass to set up a three and Gatens by getting garbage inside and putting it back up or doing what he did last night, getting a loose ball and hitting a three).
"I think it's safe to say our concerns are many." -- Kirk Ferentz
So what
is the backup plan for when these shooters DO have an off night? Is that in the plan? Because if we have an off night and there’s no Plan B then it gets really bad.
Jermelle Lewis is workin' the Minnesota D like a part time job.
Tucker...
What pissed me off was not his poor shooting. It was the fact that, with roughly 10 seconds left, and down by 1 pt after the Duquesne 3 pointer, Tucker got the inbound pass and was not sprinting up the floor. He hesitated, and then decided to move up the floor. Then, he takes a bad shot with 3 seconds left.
The kid may have talent. They kid may turn into a decent player. But he should not be our point guard, because he doesn’t have a brain.
I've sentenced boys younger than you to the gas chamber. Didn't want to do it. I felt I owed it to them.
-- Judge Smails
by WaterlooChazz on Nov 18, 2009 8:48 PM CST up reply actions
I think he'd take an Acie Earl
Lickliter was still the coach when they recruited Matt Howard, who is a low post guy who can’t shoot from the outside (though he made a 3 in their opener and the announcers were shocked — he made a whole two of them last season). The system can definitely use a low-post guy. I think if they could get a guy like that they’d take him. He doesn’t want two or three of those guys on the floor, but even his ‘07 Butler team regularly played a guy in Ligon who couldn’t shoot and was basically there for defensive beef and boards.
Also, I’ll note that Michigan has an offense built heavily around draining threes and they were still pretty bad at it last year still in year 2 of the Beilein era.
by Yinka Double Dare on Nov 18, 2009 11:14 AM CST up reply actions
There's something I don't understand
Why can’t we shoot free throws? It’s not a new problem, we were terrible with * name redacted * as well, but it’s continually frustrating with a bunch of guys who are supposed to be perimeter shooters.
It never gets to be easy
by chitownhawkeye on Nov 18, 2009 6:22 PM CST up reply actions
we were fine last year...top 50 in the nation I believe
just a bad start.
"I think it's safe to say our concerns are many." -- Kirk Ferentz
ah
I can accept that. I the team isn’t nearly good enough to be giving away those points.
It never gets to be easy
by chitownhawkeye on Nov 18, 2009 8:14 PM CST up reply actions
There are 330 college basketball teams
and you can’t accept top 50? Top 15% in the nation with mostly guys who were playing 2A H.S. basketball last year? Okay.
"I think it's safe to say our concerns are many." -- Kirk Ferentz
I can accept a bad start
hopefully just nerves from a lot of young guys.
It never gets to be easy
by chitownhawkeye on Nov 18, 2009 10:24 PM CST up reply actions
My bad...I misread
thought you said you can’t accept Top 50
"I think it's safe to say our concerns are many." -- Kirk Ferentz
We will be vindicated when
Duquesne and Texas-San Antonio are both in the elite eight at the end of the year.
by KenOKeefeIfuckinghateyou on Nov 18, 2009 11:39 AM CST reply actions
You can swear here, Bellanca
Here watch:
FUCK FUCK FUCKITY FUCK FUCK FUCK
That was fun.
Fuckin-A Fuck
You have a way with prose
by LowcountryHawk on Nov 18, 2009 1:52 PM CST up reply actions
Good overall analysis..
but take a look at Ken Pomeroy’s tempo-free stats. For this system to succeed, Iowa’s turnover percentage (% of possessions that end up in a turnover) has to be among the nation’s best. Last year we turned it over on nearly 21 percent of our possessions, 215th in the country. So while our raw turnover totals never appear that bad, we don’t take good care of the ball, and that has killed Iowa every year of the Lickliter era.
We also allowed 98.1 points per 100 possession last year, 10th in the Big 10 and 111th in the country. Only Indiana was worse defensively than Iowa last year in the Big 10. The raw statistic of points allowed per game is meaningless without the context of how many possessions are in the game. We’ve proven we can lose plenty of games while not allowing the other team to score more than 60. All that proves is that we can hold the ball on offense and limit possessions.
You are short-changing Peterson, who was bad as a fresman but as a sophomore hit 40 percent of his 3’s, shot over 80% from the FT line and had an assist rate of 32 percent, good for top 50 in the country. Peterson had turned into a solid guard. He and Kelly would be a nice tandem this year in the backcourt, with Gatens/Tucker filling in.
I'm not short changing Peterson
Lickliter is…although I think you are overlooking Peterson’s floor leadership (or lack thereof). Clearly Lickliter is looking for a certain type of guy out front and he found Kelly far more to his liking.
"I think it's safe to say our concerns are many." -- Kirk Ferentz
by StoopsMyAss on Nov 18, 2009 12:03 PM CST up reply actions
Holy crap, Stoops ...
Lotta math in all that. Makes my head hurt.
My thoughts otherwise (some of which mirror other thoughts):
1. In a sport where only five guys play at a time, losing your best guy can be a killer. Losing Jake brought progress to a screeching halt. How good would this team be with Jake and Tyler?
2. Lick is a lunch bucket kind of guy. I don’t know that we’re gonna get many smiles from him or his players. Are we willing to put up with it if shows progress? Kirk isn’t Mr. Smiley. Neither is Team Brands. We’re cool with them, right?
3. Lick is now fully responsible for the product on the court. If we take aim, aim at him, not the kids. Unless those kids act like D-Bags. Then fire away.
4. The apathy in the stands I still blame somewhat on the Hawkeye Nation Civil War over He-Who-Shall-Not-Be-Named. If we see improvement with No. 3, fewer folks will stop dressing as empty seats.
Excuse me for my bellicosity. And spelling. Bellicosity and spelling.
by Blackheartnopants on Nov 18, 2009 11:55 AM CST reply actions
#3 is a good point until you look at the team (football and wrestling)
they play with great passion. So while Kirk is not a cheerleader, he has his leadership on the field in place and doing their job. You point is a fair one though, it took KF a long time to get the fans to understand him and appreciate him as a face of the program. His humour is coming out now and he is seen as a great local face of the program — although nationally he is invisible. Just go read the ND blogs speculating on Ferentz becoming their coach and they are clueless about the guy.
I thought my analysis was merely to explain, or get a conversation started, about what is a Lickliter system after all. I was not targeting any players in the post. Although I do say that Matt Gatens and Anthony Tucker are not showing obvious leadership skills on court.
"I think it's safe to say our concerns are many." -- Kirk Ferentz
by StoopsMyAss on Nov 18, 2009 12:09 PM CST up reply actions
No. 5 (I forgot a point):
Jess Settles still has seven years of eligibility left. Lick should give him a call.
This was a good article, otherwise.
Did we really lose to Duequesne last night?
Excuse me for my bellicosity. And spelling. Bellicosity and spelling.
by Blackheartnopants on Nov 18, 2009 12:13 PM CST up reply actions
I think Kirk has always been positive. Even when he first got the job, if I remember right, his teams nearly always played hard. Going back 11 years now, there are very few examples where you could accuse them of quitting (as an example, see USC this year). It seems Lickliter’s teams have some similiarities at least in that respect. The players deserve support, but I think winning will have to precede better attendance. When you’re a fan, emotionally, 6-7 home football games even in a sub-.500 year are a lot easier to take than 15-18 home bball games. You just get beaten down.
Ferentz and Brands...
Ferentz improved every year for his first four years, culminating in a #3 (pre-Orange Bowl) national ranking in year four.
Brands won a team national title in his second year.
You could say Lickliter’s teams have taken steps backward each year. We dropped in the conference in his second year. And we are starting year 3 pretty badly. I’lll be shocked if we go better than 4-9 in the non-conf. And I’ll be really shocked if we win more than 2 or 3 Big Ten games. So, this year could be another step backward.
At least with Ferentz’s early problems, some people could say we were in year 1 and building. Lick is in year 3 and falling.
I don’t want to fire him, but if he doesn’t win next year (NIT minimum) then let the axe drop.
I've sentenced boys younger than you to the gas chamber. Didn't want to do it. I felt I owed it to them.
-- Judge Smails
by WaterlooChazz on Nov 18, 2009 9:07 PM CST up reply actions
Agreed
this year is simply going to be brutal, but we all knew it would be. We need to see progress this year into next year.
It never gets to be easy
by chitownhawkeye on Nov 18, 2009 9:11 PM CST up reply actions
Iowa basketball game last night?
Really… I didn’t know.
by Stay thirsty, my friends. on Nov 18, 2009 12:01 PM CST reply actions
Neither did anyone else, judging by the crowd
Carver is so fucking depressing now. I remember going there as a little kid with my dad and it was always completely packed, even when the team was shit. Now, I could literally have an entire section to myself if I wanted. Even the student section isn’t really that full or into it for most of the game (I try, but it’s hard when no one around you gives a fuck).
He-whom-we-do-not-name sucked out all the joy when he left.
"You don't become a Hawkeye fan, You're born with Black and Gold in your veins." - Me
by BStylin Hawkye on Nov 18, 2009 2:22 PM CST up reply actions
These numbers make me miss Dr. Tom
They were never great but at least the games were fun to watch.
We have every right to dream heroic dreams. Those who say that we're in a time when there are no heroes, they just don't know where to look.
Ronald Reagan
Sorry
I’ve got to disagree. And it’s not you, snley, no offense. I’ve read so many posts (in various boards) about “If we only still had Dr. Tom, blah, blah, blah….” that I’ve reached a breaking point.
It wasn’t fun for me to watch during the end of Dr. T. No one guarding the 3pt line, watching teams with good fundamentals shred the press, watching the flex offense – only one set, it seemed – run back and forth across the baseline and across the top, until the PG put up a fist with 10 ticks on the shot clock so they could run the high pick and roll to the right, weak recruiting, weak schedules, declining attendance, being called out on national tv by C.M. Newton for not having a strong enough SOS for the tourney, etc.
Was there more success back then? yes. I loved the early years, I loved watching them play; but those last couple years, for me, were not fun to watch.
I thought Alford was a great hire at the time, especially with this Sweet 16 run as a small school. When I met him in person, I knew we could be in trouble. When the Evans / Recker team melted down, trouble was confirmed. NW St. sealed it for me.
Are things better now? of course not. It’s been awful to watch so far. I will still watch every game I can but it will hurt. Lick will finish out the year and the economics of contract vs. attendance will determine the next year (plus big booster influence, of course).
Say what you will, but the guy's record speaks for itself
Under him, even towards the end, Iowa was always a solid basketball team that usually finished in the upper portion of the Big Ten and made the tourney (where, he literally never lost a first round game). Hell, the team made the fucking Sweet 16 in the year we decided not to renew his contract! We’ve never even gotten close to that since. He was good coach who had a lot of success for us, and more than that, a great person who always represented the University well. Forcing him out like that to “go the next level” was stupid and classless. He had more than earned the right to go out on his own terms.
It is a little of both...
of what HDHawk and Norse have said.
I love(d) Tom Davis. No way do you push that guy out unless you have multiple sub-.500 seasons. The way many in the media treated the guy was awful. We all now wish we had a coach as classy and genial as him. His style and players were fun to watch for many years. He developed dudes from nothing to become decent role-players (Darryl Moore is one of my favorites). He would occasionally beat really good teams, albeit usually earlier in the year. He made a postseason tourney 2 of every 3 years, and usually won a game or two. I want to say he never would have let a Pierre Pierce hang around forever, but then again, he did allow Sam Okey onto the squad for a year.
On the other hand, because he was so well-liked, we never got any calls from the refs. He started getting robbed of the top in-state talent by Kansas. His non-conf scheduling was pretty crappy, outside of the occasional trip to Alaska or Hawaii. He never won the biggest games of the year, like in the Big Ten Tourney, or after the first round or two of the NCAAs (yes, I know he made an elite 8). He was not a sexy choice for the high school blue-chippers, (although he did bring in Davis and Oliver, he had Horner committed, so let’s give him that.) Apparently, there were people in the media who had no particular love for him, and in the days before the Internet really took off, that was important.
It would have been really interesting to see if the success that ISU and UNI had in the 2000s would have reinvigorated Tom Davis, or if it would have been the nail in the coffin of his days at Iowa.
I've sentenced boys younger than you to the gas chamber. Didn't want to do it. I felt I owed it to them.
-- Judge Smails
by WaterlooChazz on Nov 18, 2009 9:22 PM CST up reply actions
You don't comprehend well
- never said he wasn’t a good representative of the university – I know he was
- I said that there was more success back then and that things are (obviously) not better now
- I said it was not fun for me to watch and listed why – your ranting and listing of Dr. Tom’s accomplishments is stuff I LIVED and enjoyed but is irrelevant to my post (were the games fun to watch?)
In my opinion, things were getting stale. I was getting frustrated watching the team play (as I stated). Attendance was declining (1996: 15,416 1997:14,586 1998: 13,963) so I wasn’t alone. A change was made. Was it handled well? No, it was handled in pretty much the worst way possible. Did it look promising in the beginning? yep. Has it failed miserably? yep. Does that mean the change never should have been made?
In my opinion, no.
I don't really know what you are so pissed about here
Your initial paragraph (and the end of this post) made it sound like you disagree with people who wish he hadn’t been let go. I was arguing against that idea. He was a good coach, and I don’t think it was time for a change.
As for the style, I disagree, and thought Davis’ teams, even towards the end, were fairly fun to watch. If you disagree, that’s fine. That’s completely a matter of taste. But fun to watch or not, he was a successful. I’ll take slightly boring if it actually works (sup, football team).
I think because
I said I had reached my “breaking point” with those type of posts, which you then followed up with one that sounded just like all the rest. I needed to vent, I did, and essentially you piled on. Probably didn’t meant to, but you did. We can agree to disagree on watching the last few years of Dr. Tom’s teams.
I’ll take boring, too, if it works. If Coach L. can get his teams to play like Butler’s teams, I’m all for it. I just don’t know if the economics of the situation will give him the time to get there.
It seems like...
…everyone in the booster base felt we should be doing better than the second or third round of the NCAAs by the end of his time here. As I understood it at the time (and this may have been heresay and rumor, but…) if he had made the Elite 8 his final year he would have been back. I was young, but I read a lot about the team at the time, and that seemed to be the concensus (as I’ve always remembered it).
Mainly it just seems like Bowlsby wasn’t content to dance with who brought him (basketball AND football), but maybe booster support had something to do with that- – I don’t really know. At this point I’m just hoping for a post-season of some sort in the next couple years.
by Eyeheartfreedumb on Nov 30, 2009 3:18 PM CST up reply actions
I was one of those who supported the firing of Davis and was escatic over the hiring of Alford
I would love to see the school hire a coach who could somehow turn the program into a national power. Mostly, though, I love the game of basketball when it is played in an open court, fast paced style. Even if Lickliter were successful, and I won’t say he never could be, I would find his preferred style of play to be extremely unpleasurable to watch. I miss Dr. Tom not because I necessarily believe the program would be in better shape but because the games would just be more fun to watch.
We have every right to dream heroic dreams. Those who say that we're in a time when there are no heroes, they just don't know where to look.
Ronald Reagan
Good analysis
Lickliter had tremendous success at Butler but I see a couple of problems with using his methods at Iowa. First is recruiting. He got the second and third tier players out of Indiana which are typically better than iowas first tier players. Indiana has double the population of Iowa. The Butler way is boring. Kids don’t want to play that style of basketball.
Second the level of competition in the Big Ten is much different than what Butler plays. So the Butler style and recruiting simply will not equal the same number of wins as lick is used to seeing. That is probably what happened to the coach that went from Butler to Nebraska.
Perception is the next issue. So far at Iowa has been a loser. Players are leaving, the games are ugly, and ticket sales are low. A coach only has two or three years to make a positive impact and begin to turn things around. It is too late to begin to turn things around in your fourth season. If there is not a marked improvement in the team next year, he needs to go. How long did it take Ferentz to turn things around?
And you can take that to the bank.
by Hawkeye X on Nov 18, 2009 12:42 PM CST via mobile reply actions
Can't recruit at Iowa?
John Johnson
Downtown Freddie Brown
Bruce King
Ronnie Lester
Michael Payne
Brad Lohaus
Kevin Gamble
B.J. Armstrong
Roy Marble
Ed Horton
Les Jepsen
Acie Earl
etc.
I don’t think a system designed to have your mid-major recruits outperform others’ mid-major recruits is going to ever cut it in the Big Ten, because the other teams don’t have mid-major recruits.
I like the analogy to Ferentz, but one thing it’s missing: Ferentz et al are incredible evaluators and developers of talent, and find hidden gems on the recruiting trail, kids like Dallas Clark, Chad Greenway, Bob Sanders, Tyler Sash, etc. etc. Kids who are both committed to a “team” concept AND are superbly athletic or have the potential to be given good training, but are perhaps missing measurables or HS exposure. Lickliter hasn’t proven to be able to do that yet. We’ll see in a couple years how well we can evaluate and develop basketball players, but so far we’re looking yoooooooooung.
Brunettes not fighter jets
Past coaches
Could recruit. Most of the black players you refer to are from out of state and were recruited by Raveling who is also black. The others were recruited by Dr Tom who played a more exciting and athletic brand of basketball than Lick. Recruiting under Lick is dead and I don’t see it improving. I am true Iowa fan and that is why I will not watch this team. It is too painful.
And you can take that to the bank.
by Hawkeye X on Nov 18, 2009 4:15 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
If we’re going to attempt to be fair, Dr. Tom had his best years tourney wise with Raveling’s recruits. That was the thing at the time – we needed George to recruit and Tom to coach. And count me as one of those infatuated with voldemort’s potential when he was rumored for the Iowa gig. Tom was pushed out to make room for him – there’s no other way to look at it. Bad juju, which I would argue we have paid for and then some. What’d I give now for the zombie Lute Olsen?
I was going to...
mention race after one of your last posts. I’m glad that I did not, and kept reading, because you did it for me.
I have never been much of a fan of the more extreme forms of affirmative action, like you once saw for entrance into some colleges, or hiring at some colleges. I have no problem with making sure that people of color get interviews, and I don’t really have a problem with standard affirmative action (when two candidates are tied, give it to the minority).
If they fire Lick in a year or two, they definitely need to at least interview some quality black coaches. I don’t know if they ever got to an interview stage with Chris Lowery, or Anthony Grant, or anyone else. And in retrospect, I guess I’m glad they didn’t get Lowery, because I’m not sure the SIU program is maintaining its success right now.
Obviously, the Big Ten has a lot of middle-aged white dudes as head coaches right now (Ryan, Weber, Carmody, Izzo, Bielein, maybe DeChellis. I don’t think I would call Painter and Crean middle-aged just yet, but maybe Crean is).
Tubby Smith is the only black coach in the Big Ten right now, and it seems to me that Iowa could benefit from having a quality coach that just happens to be a person of color.
I've sentenced boys younger than you to the gas chamber. Didn't want to do it. I felt I owed it to them.
-- Judge Smails
by WaterlooChazz on Nov 18, 2009 9:43 PM CST up reply actions
George Raveling used to say he loved Iowa City
but it was a miserable place for a single black man. He knew he was leaving a potential NC contender behind to go to USC when he left, but he was in a desert in Iowa City socially. Wrote it about it in a book I read.
He was a great guy and a hell of a teacher. He spoke in one of my classes. It is well known now, but was not well known then, that he owns the original notes from MLK’s “I have a Dream” speech. Look up the story if you don’t know it. In a nutshell he was working as a bodyguard for King (he grew up in the DC area and was a big guy in college and asked to stand by King) and the notes fell into his hands when King ended the speech.
Anyway, I think things have changed from back when I was in school at Iowa when 1% of the student body was black, but I don’t live in IC now so I can’t say if it is culturally more diverse or not.
"I think it's safe to say our concerns are many." -- Kirk Ferentz
Thank you , Stoops.
I knew absolutely none of that about Raveling, except that he went to USC.
You sir, are one informative SOB.
I've sentenced boys younger than you to the gas chamber. Didn't want to do it. I felt I owed it to them.
-- Judge Smails
by WaterlooChazz on Nov 18, 2009 10:10 PM CST up reply actions
Race in Waterloo?
I was really hoping Iowa would look at some black coaches when they got rid of The guy from IU. Lickliter was the exact opposite of what I wanted. Regardless of race, I want a Bruce Pearl type of guy. I think that works better for basketball these days and would be a nice contrast to Ferentz.
And you can take that to the bank.
by Hawkeye X on Nov 18, 2009 10:56 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
I think you're right
I think the public persona of a basketball coach can require different commmunication skills than that of a football coach. I am worried about TL’s ability to communicate with the public. Last year was semi-disasterous in that dept.. Let’s face it, Ferentz doesn’t have to the sales job that TL does right now. And TL is not really doing himself any favors when he plays coy (as he often does) about line-ups, injuries, rotations, etc.
"I think it's safe to say our concerns are many." -- Kirk Ferentz
I thought we brought his former staff members to bring in the ballers. I saw 4 white guys out there last night. Good God.
"You taught me a lesson, I was going to give someone the benefit of doubt, and I almost did, then something said, no don't, don't, its not for you, its not my thing" Larry David,
Chill out! We are 2 years away. Firing Lick now would just be stepping back and getting even worse.
The Freshman look like ballplayers plain and simple. They aren’t John Wall or Xavier Henry athletically, but they are guys that clearly know their way around the court. Over time that will lead to production. Contrary to a lot of the pessimistic views, I do think they are playing hard and hustling. May and Cully look solid already and Cougill shows potential too. Experience will translate into better execution of the gameplan. These Freshman look good and our guys coming in next year look suprisingly good in scouting reports too. Lick’s doing better recruiting-wise than frankly he should probably be doing at Iowa right now with the state of the program. Once we win more, recruiting will improve too. That’s how it works.
Lick’s system is built around defense, controlling the pace and limiting possessions. This group will get better as the players actually stick around to gain experience with the style and improve their defense, shooting and ball handling. Stoops points out key components in the system such as defense, 3PT%, free-throws and turnovers…all things that almost every player drastically impoves on between their Frosh year and SR year. The problem is we are rolling out a team of Sophomores and Freshman this year that haven’t had the chance to make those improvements yet. Once they do, we’ll easily find that extra 10 points a game we need for the system to be successful. The product on the court is a direct reflection of the mass exodus we experienced and now our youth. Losing what we lost, you can’t expect to do better right now. The good news is that’s not going to happen again. It was a freak thing, resulting in a domino effect that I for one can’t blame Lick for. Regardless, now Lick has his guys, and guys that want to be there. Let’s move forward.
I know it sucks, and it is downright sad to see Carver look like that, but with 2 more years there will be massive strides forward. The "Fire Lick" stuff is just counter-productive. It would only lead to more negative perceptions of the program, which only leads to more transfers, and never helps recruiting. It isn’t the answer. I know people on here can’t imagine it much worse, but it would quickly get worse if we had to find a new coach and start from scratch again.
I understand you have a right as a Hawk fan to demand a better product, but there comes a point when no matter how much you bitch and boo it doesn’t help. This is a complete overhaul and reconstruction. Give them time. If you can’t be patient then come back in 2 years if you can’t stand it in the meantime. The negativity gets us nowhere now though.
I know it doesn't help
But I am going to do it anyway. I don’t like Lick. I don’t like his style of play. I don’t like his recruiting. I will not watch Iowa Basketball with a goat. I will not watch it in a boat.
I don’t care about bad luck. I care about Ws. I am going to say it – good coaches don’t let good players walk away like that unless they are walking to the NBA. If I have three years of bad luck in my job I get fired. I don’t get two more years to rebuild. I don’t care if this is Iowa. Raise your expectations. Demand more. We deserve better than this. If Lick can’t get it done. There are a hundred coaches lined up who would take the job and do it better.
And you can take that to the bank.
by Hawkeye X on Nov 18, 2009 7:08 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Names?
Who are some of these super-coaches that would turn us into Big Ten champs in a year or two? Do you think Roy Williams would be interested if we offered him the job?
[Don’t misread me, I’m not happy with the way things have gone thus-far, but I don’t think anyone else would have done better. Maybe those players wouldn’t have transfered, and we’d have two more wins right now, but that’s about it.]
by Eyeheartfreedumb on Nov 30, 2009 3:24 PM CST up reply actions
i never said
anything about super coaches, but there has got to be someone out there that can do better. And come on, the Roy Williams thing is just ridiculous.
And you can take that to the bank.
I agree about recruiting...
I did not want to give Lick too much credit for next year’s class (Marble, Brust, McCabe, Larson). However, May and Cougill look like they can contribute now, and I think I will feel the same about Payne after another few games.
By the way, Cody Larson is now a 4-star according to Scout.com. When did that happen?
I've sentenced boys younger than you to the gas chamber. Didn't want to do it. I felt I owed it to them.
-- Judge Smails
by WaterlooChazz on Nov 18, 2009 10:08 PM CST up reply actions
I looked at kenpom.com and focused on turnovers, because it seems as though that is a key area where we have problems
I looked at Lick’s Butler teams: 2004 – 2007.
During that time here is how they faired in terms of turnovers (I will give the %age of possessions that resulted in turnovers, which is more relevant than just the raw # of turnovers. I will also say where they ranked nationally in that category):
2004 – 17% (8th nationally)
2005 – 16.7% (3rd nationally)
2006 – 14.2% (3rd nationally)
2007 – 15.5% (1st nationally) This was the Sweet 16 team
The general trend is that he improved from year to year. Unfortunately, kenpom.com doesn’t have stats from before 2004, so I can’t extend my analysis beyond that point. It would be interesting to see whether there was dramatic improvement in the turnover department in his first few years as coach.
Another encouraging thing that I saw from these stats is that several of his players dramatically reduced their turnover rate over time. Here are some examples:
AJ Graves
TO Rate of 16.3 as a freshman in 2005
TO Rate of 13.4 as a sophomore in 2006
TO Rate of 11.9 as a junior in 2007
Brandon Crone
TO Rate of 22.0 as a sophomore in 2005
TO Rate of 14.4 as a junior in 2006
TO Rate of 12.1 as a senior in 2007
You see this in other players too, but these guys both played a lot of minutes so they are good examples (large sample sizes). For comparison, Matt Gatens’ turnover rate last season was 16.5, so pretty similar to where AJ Graves started off.
What does this mean? Well, it gives me hope that over time our turnover age will go down as our team matures. One thing that has worried me sick lately is the idea that our turnovers are due to lack of athleticism, and no amount of coaching is going to make the problem go away. After looking at these stats, I now have hope that our players will in fact reduce their turnovers as they gain experience. Hopefully our shooting percentages will go up over time as well (Butler made huge strides in that regard between 2004 and 2005, and then stayed in about the same spot (52-54 eFG%age for the next few years). I must say, I don’t feel nearly as bad about Lickliter as I did before I looked at these statistics.
Watching Butler last night against Northwestern
showed how important a low post presence is in this offense. Also, the spacing of the Butler team is much great than ours—we look too close to the basket and lack the overall movement as a result that Butler employs.
I think this Butler team shows how experience can make a difference. The “feeling” I got watching them, and they were a pleasure to watch, was they just played so under control—everyone knew his place and his role. Sure it was slow, but in a measured, stalking the basket way, not a We don’t know what else to do, forced way. (if that makes sense).
"I think it's safe to say our concerns are many." -- Kirk Ferentz
I enjoy watching Butler play too
It seems to me that their fundamentals are more consistent – ball handling, feeding the post, defensive footwork, crisp passes, quick but under control. As you watch, you just know that pretty soon they’ll beat someone with a backdoor bounce pass. It’s basketball that I like to have my kids watch to help them learn. We’re heading to Hinkle next month.
You make a great point about Iowa’s lack of spacing. I watched the Duquesne game pretty closely and it seems that the players are “trying” too hard – trying to make the pass to the middle, trying to drive to the basket NOW, shooting a contested three pointer NOW, instead of working the defense and taking advantage of a mistake. Again, the confidence to be patient only comes with experience. The turnovers will decrease with experience (nice post, houk). Will the economics of an empty arena allow Lickliter enough time to get the necessary experience? We shall see.
I think for me to be convinced in Coach L. is to see if this team gets better as the season progresses; not necessarily game to game, because I think basketball is much more variable than football, but probably every couple of weeks. The measuring stick might be “are they better than they were two weeks ago?”
It might not be noticeable even then...
because I think he is missing two essential pieces. He lacks (at this time, we’ll see if Coughill emerges) a low post presence. Someone who is comfortbale looking back at the offense, playing with his back to the basket. And, he is missing Jake Kelly type skills…someone who is a threat to break down the defense. Someone who creates just a shred of concern that he might blow past you and manufacture a score outside of the seemingly intractble offensive set.
In other words, this foundation isn’t even built, so to the Joe Schmo, this team looks like a hole in the ground.
"I think it's safe to say our concerns are many." -- Kirk Ferentz
by StoopsMyAss on Nov 19, 2009 10:17 AM CST up reply actions
Nevermind...
…"We’ll have to see how everything goes,’’ Iowa coach Todd Lickliter said today. "If guys stay healthy and we feel like we can fill holes, I think it would be in our best interest to strongly consider (a redshirt)."
This would make sense. He could play for two years on what should be an improved team (since this year looks like a bust anyway). However, the downside is that it would only leave one scholarship available for the 2011 season (unless we have another exodus- boo- but that doesn’t seem likely). Although I guess recruiting would be easier that year.
by Eyeheartfreedumb on Nov 30, 2009 3:48 PM CST up reply actions
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