BlogpLOL Week Eight: About Cincinnati...

by Hawkeye State on Oct 28, 2009 6:35 PM CDT Comment 14 comments

Rank	Team	Delta

1	Alabama
2	Texas	1
3	Iowa	1
4	Florida
5	Boise State
6	TCU	6
7	Oregon	1
8	Penn State	5
9	Southern Cal	1
10	Pittsburgh	4
11	Georgia Tech	2
12	Virginia Tech	2
13	Cincinnati	6
14	Arizona	1
15	Miami (Florida)	4
16	Ohio State	1
17	Oklahoma State	1
18	LSU	1
19	South Carolina	1
20	Wisconsin
21	Notre Dame
22	West Virginia	1
23	Mississippi	1
24	Oklahoma
25	Houston	1
Last week's ballot

Dropped Out: Texas Tech (#18), Nebraska (#21), Michigan (#25).

Tackle Eligible: Kansas, Cal, Central Michigan, BYU, Texas Tech

Not much movement in the poll this week; TCU gets the requisite bump after pummeling Brigham Young, Penn State continues to roll through a schedule that is significantly better than we initially thought, and Pitt is strangely intriguing.

So let's talk Cincinnati.

Long-time followers of the poll know I have no problem with Cincinnati; they held the #1 spot for a couple weeks early on, and on style I give them high marks. But they have played absolutely nobody. The Bearcats' top three wins, in order of quality:

Oregon State, 4-3 and middling in the Pac-10. With that said, their three losses are all to teams in the top 14, and they hold wins over Stanford and Arizona State. Their record belies their talent, in direct contrast to the next two teams.

South Florida, 5-2 after getting curbstomped by Pitt this weekend. USF's two losses are by a combined 44 points. Their five wins are against two I-AA opponents, Western Kentucky, and two "names" (FSU and 'Cuse) who are shells of their former selves. Those five wins are against teams that are 10-26 on the year.

Rutgers, who is 5-2 against a schedule that might be even worse. The Knights have the same two losses as USF (by a combined 39), but have beaten two I-AA's, Florida International, Army, and the worst team in a BCS conference (Maryland).

Not only does Cincinnati have the worst opponents' record of all the teams in the top 25, but that record might actually be overestimating the quality of the opposition; USF and Rutgers might well be the worst 5-win teams in the country. Is 13 low? Yeah, probably, but not egregiously low given the body of work we have to rely upon, and I can't find a reason to put Cinci higher than any of the teams listed above them.

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Fair enough regarding Cincy (though I think that's a bit extreme)

But why Pitt ahead of them? Pitt’s curbstomped the same two 5-2 frauds, and their next best win is over a thoroughly meh UConn team. And they have a loss to NC State, while Cincy has none. Surely if Cincy deserves a demotion, Pitt should be hovering in the 20s at best.

by SpartanDan on Oct 28, 2009 7:31 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Can't believe I'm going to argue FOR Cincy

But the bulletproof argument they should be no lower than #7 is – they’re undefeated. At this point in the season, I reject any argument of any kind that places a team that has lost above a team that hasn’t. Until they lose, they deserve to be higher. Same holds for Boise and TCU. I realize they play weaker schedules. They’ve beat every team they’ve played. Sounds familiar doesn’t it?

I’d have no problem putting them last among the undefeateds, but anything else is disingenuous.

by benvious on Oct 28, 2009 7:41 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Yeah

Cinci should be in the same range as Boise and TCU. I think the schedules are comparable enough in their cupcakey goodness.

It never gets to be easy

by chitownhawkeye on Oct 28, 2009 7:59 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Oddly enough, I think this is the one point in the season where the zero in the loss column can be trumped. Early on, any arguments about “quality wins” are nothing more than wild guesses, and by season’s end anyone who has survived twelve opponents (assuming some minimal, non-Hawaii-07 level of respectability) belongs at the top until proven otherwise. But at this point we know enough about everyone to make reasonable SOS comparisons, and it’s a bit more likely that some unbeaten will fail the “non-godawful schedule” test if all their tough games are at the end of the season.

For USC (who has three reasonable quality wins – OSU, ND, Cal), I think it’s at least close between them and Cincy, though “lost to a 3-5 team that is probably worse than that record” is a fairly significant strike against them – had they already played Oregon and lost instead of losing to Washington, I’d probably put them ahead for now. If Cincy keeps winning, they move definitively ahead (probably after either Pitt or WVU, whoever they play first). My main argument was that putting a Pitt team that has the same SOS issues and a loss ahead is bizarre.

by SpartanDan on Oct 28, 2009 9:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Voters do this thing with USC

where they see these loses over the years to lesser teams, like UW, as an aberration. I think they would be even more punished if they lost to a highly ranked team. It would be as if the voters were saying, “you can’t say you were focused Pete.” Which, if I am right, is wierd.

Think about it, if Ohio State or Penn State lose to a 3-5 team they would be severly punished in the polls. If Alabama would have lost to Tenn. I think they would have gone to 9 or 10. By the way, I think Florida will get this USC treatment. If they lose to Georgia they will go to no lower than 5 or 6.

"I think it's safe to say our concerns are many." -- Kirk Ferentz

by StoopsMyAss on Oct 28, 2009 10:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I meant to write

"you can’t say you were NOT focused Pete."

"I think it's safe to say our concerns are many." -- Kirk Ferentz

by StoopsMyAss on Oct 28, 2009 10:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Another case of voting the name over the results

And further evidence that the computers are far closer to sanity, even without the ability to consider MOV, than the dolts who vote in the polls. And those dolts get twice the weight.

by SpartanDan on Oct 29, 2009 8:40 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ron Zook thanks you for the compliment

The Knights have the same two losses as USF (by a combined 39), but have beaten two I-AA’s, Florida International, Army, and the worst team in a BCS conference (Maryland).

If I’m reading this right, you’re saying Illinois is only the second worst team in a BCS conference. No wonder Ron Zook will still have a job next year. Now where’s the vote of confidence for Ralph Friedgen?

by cbrett42 on Oct 28, 2009 11:08 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

It's on a piece of paper under the low-fat mayo

Needless to say, he’ll never find it.

I ate the blue ones ... they taste like burning.

by HoyaGoon on Oct 28, 2009 11:52 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs

haha he's so fat.

Brunettes not fighter jets

by rockyh on Oct 29, 2009 10:13 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Question

If Friedgen, Weis and Mangino were to stand in close proximity to one another would an inescapable gravity hole be created? And, if so, are there protocols in place to keep this from ever happening?

I ate the blue ones ... they taste like burning.

by HoyaGoon on Oct 29, 2009 10:31 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Picture the Moon

First, I’ll give you a moment to clean up the vomit.

Bear with me on this one, though – we can work such a concept to our advantage: We would need to get these three Jabbas together on a boat in the Indian Ocean at coordinates South Latitude 33.2, East Longitude 92.4, which is the Antipodal Point of the earth from Tuscaloosa, Alabama. What will this accomplish, you may be wondering? The effect of the Blimpie Brothers being concentrated in one small area would create a gravitational pull akin to that of earth’s moon, as their combined masses would surely equal the moon’s. Their presence at this spot would then have the same effect as the moon would, which would be to take the Tide out.

Now, for the execution, I think it will be a simple task of commandeering a cruise liner and offering a free buffet with suckling pig, crème brûlée and HoHos.

by HawkOnRails on Oct 29, 2009 10:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think it's certainly debatable...

that Washington St. is worse than Maryland or Illinois. They certainly all make compelling arguments though.

It's not that I'm lazy, Bob, it's just that I don't care

by Colteyes on Oct 29, 2009 6:39 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I realize its nitpicking

Being that TCU and Boise St are right next to each other, but why put BSU ahead of TCU? though I admit I put too much merit in a team in a slack conference at least trying to schedule somebody (in the case of TCU, both Clemson and Va). Boise St’s season was decided after Oregon. Furthermore, the Mountain West Conference is probably just about on par with the Big East. I’m not sure if that says something positive for the Mountain West or decidedly negative about the Big East. Maybe both.

by alnamiasIV on Oct 29, 2009 7:32 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs