Iowa Jumps to #4 in Week Two BCS Rankings

by Hawkeye State on Oct 25, 2009 7:40 PM CDT Comment 28 comments

Despite squeaking out a last-second victory over a .500 team and dropping a spot in the Harris poll, Iowa moved up two places in the newest BCS rankings. The Hawkeyes are now fourth, behind Florida, Alabama, and Texas, and ahead of four teams (Southern Cal, Cincinnati, Boise State, and TCU) ranked above them by the human voters.

If the Hawkeyes filled out an eHarmony profile this week, the computer would probably keep it for itself. Iowa ranks first in five of the six computer polls (the only holdout is the notoriously flawed Billingsley poll, which places Iowa fourth). It stands to reason that Iowa's eight methodical, workmanlike, borderline ugly wins would look better to the machines than they do to the sports information directors and retirees who vote in the human polls, especially given the fact that the computers cannot consider margin of victory. There is no rational argument for any of the other undefeateds playing a more difficult schedule than Iowa: The Hawkeyes' schedule-to-date is 18 games over .500; the next closest (Florida) is 2 over. That statistic, combined with four BCS-conference road wins, is enough to win over nearly every unfeeling electronic device.

Southern Cal and TCU move up in tandem with Iowa. Ironically, the big drops of the week are Cincinnati and Boise State, who convincingly beat their opponents this weekend (or at least more convincingly than Iowa, Florida, and Alabama) but are crucified by the computers for soft schedules. Cincinnati's slate, in particular, gets worse with every passing week; the Bearcats' opposition-to-date is now 21-29 after going 2-5 over the weekend, the worst mark among the remaining undefeated teams. Boise, at 23-28, is not far off.

We are still a long way from this having any long-term meaning; the Hawks have four more games to play, including that November 14 trip to Columbus. Should they run the table, they'll need some help from the human voters to move up further, but don't count out the possibility of Iowa leapfrogging Texas. Barring an unexpected loss by Florida or Alabama, the SEC champion will likely top both polls at the end of the year. Texas would certainly be second, and a 12-0 Iowa with wins in Columbus and Happy Valley is likely third. But the Longhorns are hated by the computers; they currently rank fifth, and there is little left on their schedule (including the Big XII championship game against whichever of the paraplegics wins the North) that will improve their standing. Should Iowa finish third in the polls and win the computers, they would likely rank ahead of #2/#2/#4 Texas. But, yeah, we have a long way to go.

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Awesome, awesome line

If the Hawkeyes filled out an eHarmony profile this week, the computer would probably keep it for itself.

Go Hawks

Luck is probability taken personally, clutch is probability attributed to individuals.

by shake n bake on Oct 25, 2009 7:46 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Jesse Palmer Sucks

Just keep winning. GO HAWKS

by Zulu on Oct 25, 2009 7:58 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Yeah

I don’t think we’re a #4 team, but Palmer doesn’t give us any credit. Maybe he’s being appointed devil’s advocate for Iowa on College Football Live.

On the other hand, Herbie defends us and the Big 10 on it. However, Herbie comforts me about as much as the Holocaust (not much).

by Duez I say on Oct 25, 2009 9:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Or maybe

he’s just a flaming douche? I mean, it’s not like he had to go on a reality-dating show to find a woman, despite living in New York City (where I’ve heard there are a few) and being a FUCKING NFL QUARTERBACK! Backup, to be sure, but still.

Nice hair though, and I think we all know that’s what is truly important.

I ate the blue ones ... they taste like burning.

by HoyaGoon on Oct 26, 2009 11:56 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

My sentiment exactly

Florida QB? Check. Played in NFL? Check.

When my wife said “Isn’t that the guy from The Bachelor” I could only exclaim “That guy needs a fucking TV show to find him a woman?” What a bitch.

by ChompSmirkWIN on Oct 26, 2009 12:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Texas should be worried...

The computer love for Iowa and the unexepted weakness of the Big12 as a whole could make Texans cry even more about being left out than they did last year. Or Iowa could lose to Indiana or jNWU and it will be a moot point. I see either as distinct possibilities.

Fuck tOSU

by ajs1122 on Oct 25, 2009 8:02 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I'd be awfully surprised...

…if this particular bunch of Hawkeyes dropped any of their three remaining home games. Could it happen? Sure it could, but this team is so focused, so physical and so determined that I don’t see it. We got MSU’s best shot and survived. That defense was on a mission last night. We might not see a defense play that physical again this year, tOSU included. Of the three remaining games, IU scares me the most, but Iowa should still handle them.

I firmly believe the tilt in Columbus is what stands between Iowa and perfection. I never thought catching and passing Texas was realistic but I’ve read several things today that seem to indicate it is indeed a possibility. Ohio Stadium is the only Big Ten venue where KF hasn’t won (not including the Gophs’ new digs). It’s time to remedy that.

But I hope the team is focusing on Indiana and only Indiana. And if I know anything about the way things are operating around the Iowa football complex these days, I suspect that’s indeed the case. This season is special. This team is special.

by DonnyDonovan on Oct 25, 2009 8:13 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I agree

That we got Michigan State’s best shot. I mean, they wouldn’t even turn the ball over for us. Very selfish those Spaaaartaaans.

by Duez I say on Oct 25, 2009 9:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hawks should root

for Florida, not Alabama, to win the SEC. Florida’s schedule is going to grade out substantially weaker when all is said and done. Florida State is well below Va. Tech, and Georgia + Vanderbilt will have fewer wins than Auburn + Ole MIss (those are the two teams that are different in their SEC schedules). If Alabama wins out, they may well end up #1 in a lot of those computers. That may prevent Iowa from jumping Texas.

http://www.rivalryesq.com/
The quintessential Big Ten smoking room.

by Bama Hawkeye on Oct 25, 2009 8:36 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Too early to worry...

We shouldn’t even be talking about this yet, but it’s hard not to think about it.

The thing to remember, though, is that if they both win out, Texas will likely rise in the computer polls and Iowa will likely drop. Iowa already has four road wins; Texas has two (only one against a BCS conference) plus a neutral site win. But the flip side of that is that as we go through the rest of the season, Iowa only has one more road game, combined with three home games against mediocre-to-bad teams, which will drop the strength of schedule in the computers. Meanwhile, Texas has three more road games (including at OSU, which basically matches our at tOSU) plus another neutral site game if they’re in the Big XII championship game. I love to dream, but I don’t see Iowa passing Texas in the BCS rankings unless Texas loses.

by cbrett42 on Oct 25, 2009 10:01 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Is it still wrong

To get a hard-on thinking about the possibilities if we DO sweep the table?

The NC game really doesn’t mean anything without a playoff IMHO. If we somehow finish 12-0 and ‘miss it’ but beat our BCS opponent, finish 13-0, the rest is all bullshit…

by Leftcoast Hawk on Oct 25, 2009 11:16 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

We aren't the fourth-best team in the nation.

That’s obvious and I can understand any pundit poo-pooing. BUT, if you ask “are we having the fourth-best SEASON?” I think the answer is definitely “yeah.”

by ABRACABOOYA on Oct 26, 2009 12:24 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Actually, I'd make the argument ...

… that calling this the fourth-best season is pessimistic to this point. If I had a vote it’d probably be Iowa #2 at this point behind Texas (who is at least doing what good teams are supposed to do against inferior competition).

by SpartanDan on Oct 26, 2009 12:41 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

What's the difference?

This is where I take exception with all of the talking heads. In theory I understand what you are saying, but in practice Illinois isn’t one of the worst teams in all of college football (and the talking heads know it which is why they got so much pre-season love). But tallent doesn’t translate to wins automatically. Sometimes you can have a stacked team and still go nowhere. Sometimes you have a rag-tag bunch that plays bigger than any one individual, and I’m sorry, but a win is a win.
I keep hearing that Iowa is NOT the #4 team in the nation, but our schedule and record says otherwise. So we don’t blow people out. Where in the rulebook does it say you have to win by 20? Oh, yeah, it doesn’t. If we play in the Rose Bowl against USC and only beat them by 1 on a last second play, does that mean they are still better than us, because obviously they have “better players” (who lost to Washington, tsk, tsk).
I could care less what happens with the rankings, but I’m tired of people who should know better saying that we aren’t that good. Are you telling me that if everyone else in the Top 25 had our schedule they would also be undefeated, cause I just don’t buy that. Good teams find a way to win, and a lot of good teams out there haven’t been able to do that. Just give us credit where credit is due, and let the cards fall where they may.
[Oh, and FUCK Colon Cowhead- – no one in Iowa is saying we are getting “screwed” in the BCS- – that bitch has never been to Iowa- – most around here keep saying they’ll just be happy if we get to go to the Rose Bowl, so suck on it Cowhead.]

by Eyeheartfreedumb on Oct 26, 2009 9:58 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree with you Eyeheartfreedumb

and also, FUCK Jesse Palmer, he can go fuck himself. I don’t mean to stick up for the BCS, but isn’t the point of the computers the fact that they don’t have “opinions” like Palmer, and his deep ~~gaping love hole for everyone but Iowa~~ sympathy for Boise and Cinci, and how they’ve “done what they’re supposed to do” and score those “style points” by winning by a lot. (I know, lots of quotes) Well, Jesse Palmer, thank you for your style points, I wish I could gel my hair as nice as you. You have convinced me that being undefuckingfeated is not enough, unless you are Florida.

And did he actually use the excuse of having an inexperienced QB for USC’s loss to Washington?? He must have chosen to forget that our running game consists of 2 freshmen and a PAKI. Fuck Jesse Palmer.

Hey Dolph, you look like I need a beer.

by Give Eddie a Beer on Oct 26, 2009 10:53 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Strength of Schedule

The NCAA publishes SOS results based exclusively on opponents’ win-loss records (something that the BlogPoll folks from BHGP probably love). Here’s the link:

The upshot: based on opponents played to this point, Iowa has the fourth toughest schedule overall. The teams that Iowa has beaten have a 73.07% winning percentage. Of the remaining unbeatens, Texas is next at #41 (60.47%), followed by Florida at #50 (59.52%) TCU at #52 (59.09%), Alabama at #65 (57.14%), Boise State at #108 (51.16%) and Cincinnati at #140 (47.62%). That’s right, Cincinnati’s collective opponents don’t even have a winning record.

Evidently it is less impressive to win close road games against teams with winning records than it is to win games at home against teams with sub-.500 records. In that case, Iowa should rocket up the human polls in the next two weeks.

by Abbas_Cincinnatus on Oct 26, 2009 11:08 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Link

I thought posting a link would be pretty straighforward but for some reason it didn’t come through. So I’m just going to post the text of the link:

http://web1.ncaa.org/mfb/2009/Internet/toughest%20schedule/tough.html

by Abbas_Cincinnatus on Oct 26, 2009 11:17 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

If USC beats Oregon

they will jump Iowa. and you’d assume Iowa would jump them back if they beat Ohio State. but then USC will get a bump if they beat Zona.

as close as Iowa and USC are right now, I don’t see how it’s possible Iowa finishes ahead of USC if both teams win out. given Iowa’s remaining opponents and the media’s hard on for USC. sure, the voters might come around if Iowa tops Ohio State. but if USC beats Oregon and Zona, they’ll get that many more votes.

someone please tell me why I’m wrong.

by KentuckyThunderPussy on Oct 26, 2009 11:37 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

The human factor?

Obviously there is no way for Iowa to improve its standing in the computer polls. We may be concerned about our SoS suffering over the next four weeks, but our remaining opponents are a combined 19-12, which is still a 61.3% winning percentage. Also, if you look at the strength of schedule considering both past and future opponents, Iowa has the second hardest schedule in the country. #1 is Arizona. So I don’t think we’re at risk of dropping precipitously in the computers unless we lose a game.

However, that means that the only way for us to hold off USC if they beat both Oregon and Arizona is to convince fucks like Jesse Palmer that we should be higher than #8 in the country. Moving up in the Harris and the USA Today polls is crucial for moving up in the BCS. Personally, I can only think of four ways to do that:

1.) Win our home games with large margins of victory
2.) Beat tOSU by at least ten points in a game that isn’t decided in the last five minutes.
3.) Enhanced interrogation techniques
4.) Some combination of the above.

by Abbas_Cincinnatus on Oct 26, 2009 12:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

One other thing...

I did some back of the envelope calculations and if Iowa would have moved from #8 to #5 in both the Harris and the USA Today polls that, combined with the consensus #1 ranking in the computer polls, would have given us a BCS average of 0.8933, which would be enough to move us past Texas and into third place. So we’re pretty much at the point where we have to win and impress Jesse Palmer.

I’m sure there’s a Bachelor-oriented joke about whoring ourselves out to win a rose from Jesse Palmer, but I’m just not coming up with it.

by Abbas_Cincinnatus on Oct 26, 2009 1:25 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

“I want to ask you a question, straight out, flat out, and I want you to give me an honest answer. What do you think the chances of a guy like you and a girl like me ending up together?”

by Twin Cities Hawk on Oct 26, 2009 2:46 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs

+1,000

That is awesome. What a douche.

They took the bar, the whole fucking bar!

by recoveringfratguy on Oct 26, 2009 3:38 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Why you're wrong

… is the big shiny zero in the loss column. If USC makes the title game ahead of an unbeaten Iowa team, the BCS will be razed to the ground by an angry pitchfork-wielding mob. It damn near happened last year for Utah, and no matter how much undeserved shit the Big Ten gets from the “OMG SEC SPEEEEEEEED” morons there’s a pretty sizable gap in the perception of the Big Ten and that of the MWC.

Hell, USC getting in ahead of unbeaten Cincinnati would probably cause a major shitstorm, and there’s no way Iowa would have a worse case than Cincy.

by SpartanDan on Oct 27, 2009 12:26 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Perception v. Reality

I agree that will cause riots, but it’ll be in flyover country so who the hell cares anyway. What are Iowans going to do, cut off our precious supply of fat chicks, slow offensive linemen and high fructose corn syrup?

Sorry, I was just anticipating the other side’s argument. I still think that a one-loss USC can get into the title game ahead of an undefeated Iowa. I don’t think it should happen, but I think it might. What would be astonishing to me is that we would have virtually identical resumes. We would have both beaten Arizona and tOSU, we would each have good road wins and the only difference is that we would have zero losses and they would have one.

by Abbas_Cincinnatus on Oct 27, 2009 10:16 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

This process will never be straightforward, fair (whatever that fucking is) or simple. Remember last year, Florida’s loss to Mississippi State, at HOME, was completely ignored by the time this all mattered (late November). Mack Brown yelled and screamed like a motherfucker, but he still shouldn’t have gotten beat by TTech. It’s still really early; week 2 BCS. I am actually not this guy, but we all need to fucking relax. Jesse Palmer doesn’t matter. The sports radio guys in Dallas (I’m there) who said today that TCU would beat Iowa 59-0 (not douchebags, blowhards yes, but guys who are not Colin Cowherd-ish), and the Jesse Palmers, don’t matter. Iowa needs to beat Indiana. Then focus on jNW. The tv and radio guys job is to make us go ballistic. Mark May is always going to hate PSU (douche). Jesse Palmer is always going to say the SEC is great, the Big XI sucks. Colin Cowherd is a west coast guy and he’ll fellate Pete Carroll no matter how many inexcusable games USC loses. Iowa is not one of their flagship programs and Kirk doesn’t go out of his way to kiss these guys ass. Fuck those retards. I hope Ferentz guys know some of this shit. For today, I’m more worried about the collective health of the 2 deep after last Saturday.

by txhawkeye on Oct 26, 2009 4:36 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

It is far too early to get worked up about this stuff, and there are a myriad of possible outcomes left. That said, I still cannot stand Colin Cowherd and wouldn’t piss on him to put him out if he were on fire. I might throw Jim Rome on the blaze to keep the fire going, however…

I ate the blue ones ... they taste like burning.

by HoyaGoon on Oct 26, 2009 4:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed, to a point.

I agree that we aren’t playing the Harris Poll voters on Saturday, we’re playing Indiana. We can’t go out with any intention except to play our best game and move to 9-0. If, as a team, we spend too much time worrying about our place in the BCS pecking order, we run the risk of overlooking teams that we can’t afford to overlook and we’ll get beat.

I also agree that fuck Colin Cowherd and Jesse Palmer.

That said, Iowa can still control its own destiny into the BCS title game. But the only way to do it at this point is to move Harris and USA Today poll voters. Fortunately, we don’t need them to rank us #1 or #2. If they would even put us in the top five it would get us close enough that we could put it together with our #1 computer rankings and end up in the title game.

by Abbas_Cincinnatus on Oct 26, 2009 4:57 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs