BCS picture (EDIT: 4th!!!!!!)
by sfshilo on Oct 25, 2009 11:21 AM CDT
33 comments
There's alot of worrying about the polls screwing over Iowa in the long run.
After the new ELO ranking came out today I did some number crunching. (Cause I'm a nerd)
If the current computer polls continue their pattern, Iowa could easily end up number 3 despite no one in the media wanting them to be.
It comes down to averages. Iowa keeps winning all it will take is 4th in the coaches and harris polls to move to the number 3 spot. Why? Because Texas is god awful in the computer poll.
So what needs to happen?
1. Harris and coaches poll moves Iowa to 4th, behind Florida, bama, and Texas. (Reasonable in the next 4 weeks if Iowa keeps winning)
2. Computer polls keep improving Iowa. This is almost 100% given, most of the computers polls use S.O.S. as a major factor and Iowa has that in the bag.
3. WIN. All of this is shit if they drop a game. So GO HAWKS!
EDIT: So I was right wooooo! All but one computer poll has us number 1 (Damn you Billingsley!)
http://www.footballfoundation.org/pdf/BCS2009/BCS_LONG.Week2.HSMFADFAB30.10.25.09.pdf
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I wonder if the other close wins at home in the standings will have an effect...
Should be interesting.
by mattbednar on Oct 25, 2009 11:29 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
With Harris Poll now known
Iowa needs some help in the computer department to move up since cincy moved up a spot.
by sfshilo on Oct 25, 2009 6:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Computer Polls that need to help out are
Billingsley had Iowa at 5th last week.
Massey had Iowa at 8th last week. The rest had Iowa at 1 or 2.
by sfshilo on Oct 25, 2009 6:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Found the BCS poll with some help
The COMPUTERS FREAKING LOVE IOWA. 1st except one poll!
Iowa is 4th place!
by sfshilo on Oct 25, 2009 7:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
What exactly is the Harris poll again?
It’s bad enough that the coaches’ poll is basically a joke but I have no idea what the Harris poll is.
I ate the blue ones ... they taste like burning.
by HoyaGoon on Oct 26, 2009 11:01 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
With these changes.
Iowa will overtake Cincy in BCS this week.
Computer polls have moved the hawks up and Cincy and Iowa were dead even last week.
by sfshilo on Oct 25, 2009 11:30 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Depending on Harris and computer polls
Boise State will probably be 4th.
by sfshilo on Oct 25, 2009 11:33 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
If you are wondering why
USC is a DOG in the computer polls last week, ELO has them at 7th….
by sfshilo on Oct 25, 2009 11:34 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Iowa will be 4th in BCS this week according to BCS guru
It Iowa wins out the will be in the NC game if….and this is one big “if,” if Texas loses. You can expect Bama and Florida in SEC champ game…so one of them go down. But, if Texas goes undefeated then we are out of the Camp game as they would play Florida or Bama. Although, Bama may lose to LSU.
It is really about us going undefeated and Texas losing. I think Texas is a 50/50 to lose to Ok. St. But I think we are a 50/50 to lose to Ohio State. So no need to celebrate just yet. I would love to lock up a Rose Bowl for Kirk though. He really deserves it. And it would be awesome to have the conference camp. outright.
"I think it's safe to say our concerns are many." -- Kirk Ferentz
by StoopsMyAss on Oct 25, 2009 3:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
What happens if....
say Bama loses to LSU then beats Florida in the SEC championship game. Then Texas wins out. Does an undefeated Iowa get in over a one loss SEC team?
by Argulor on Oct 25, 2009 3:59 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
yes
that late in season…no question
"I think it's safe to say our concerns are many." -- Kirk Ferentz
by StoopsMyAss on Oct 25, 2009 4:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes
There would be bitching, but they wouldn’t risk leaving the Big Ten team out
DO YOU HAVE PRIDE, DANNY?
by ReadingRambler on Oct 25, 2009 4:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
A One loss OK team...
went to the national championship over an undefeated USC a couple years back if I remember…I’m not sure. Although with the computer love we are getting I think Iowa would be alright.
by Argulor on Oct 25, 2009 7:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
What?
If you’re thinking of 2003, USC lost to Cal. And 2004 was the year Auburn was shut out for OU and SC.
DO YOU HAVE PRIDE, DANNY?
by ReadingRambler on Oct 25, 2009 7:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
and the tweaked the system to rectify that
"I think it's safe to say our concerns are many." -- Kirk Ferentz
by StoopsMyAss on Oct 25, 2009 8:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, shit...
has to happen if we are to move up in the BCS, one of which Hawks have to KEEP WINNING. And since the computer loves the Hawks MSU, PSU, Wisconsin, Iowa State and Arizona also have to keep winning. Which, so far, they’ve been doing.
by Zulu on Oct 25, 2009 3:27 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
ok ok ok. When the season began, I said I was going to be happy with 8-4 considering our away schedule. Where we sit now is ridiculous, and I couldn’t be happier, nor could I be more nervous every fucking week. Sooooooo, my strong preference is to worry about Indiana this week, a team that apparently can score, and jNW next week, since our recent history with them is so shitty. I feel like a killjoy, but if there’s one thing 8-0 (4 wins by a total of 8?) has demonstrated through today, it’s that nothing comes easy for this team. And we’re going to be shorthanded this week, at least, maybe for several. We need a safety, the O line needs to physically dominate with Vanderveld now in, both our freshman running backs are fucked up and we’re suddenly short of receivers since Davis has gone into the witness protection program. All I want is to keep winning, see where we are, and either bitch like a motherfucker or just raise my anxiety to unprecedented heights. Today, I’m worried about Indiana.
by txhawkeye on Oct 25, 2009 4:02 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
and still lost a spot to TCU
Fuck tOSU
by ajs1122 on Oct 25, 2009 6:57 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Florida, Alabama and Texas have each looked less than dominant in the past few games.
So…Why not Iowa??
Why not Iowa????
by CUNKNNK on Oct 25, 2009 7:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Shaun King sticking up for Iowa on ESPN
Spent a good 10 minutes on just Iowa. Pretty interesting.
…give me the courage and the ability to so conduct myself in every situation that my country, my family, and my friends will be proud of me.
-Nile Kinnick
by Hawkeyewith49Jackrabbits on Oct 25, 2009 7:51 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Here is a great analysis of Bama v. Iowa
His breakdown is great as he shows the whole thing head to head, and what you see is that Iowa has clearly been better IF…IF….IF…you pay attention to the big wins and spend less time dwelling over the close wins to the lesser teams.
Iowa has suffered from four things in this whole ranking biz:
- close, miracle win over an FCS team at home.
- being from Big Ten.
- being behind in most games only to “survive” and win. Every WWL replay is highlight of us is accompanied by the same bullshit, “Iowa after a terrible start, blah, blah, blah”
- Michigan game…that game on National TV where we started poorly and ended poorly hurt us I think more than it should be.
Even now, we are getting the short end. Every publication predicted a close game with Michigan State, and many picked us to lose. Most said it would be a true test as MSU was “on a roll” and then when we win, well, it was a miracle, with questionable calls.
http://thenationalchampionshipissue.blogspot.com/
"I think it's safe to say our concerns are many." -- Kirk Ferentz
by StoopsMyAss on Oct 25, 2009 8:09 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
aren't we forgetting USC?
If USC wins at Oregon this wknd, they will certainly jump Iowa. and sure, that might be nullified If Iowa wins at Ohio State, but then USC will get a bump if they beat Zona.
as close as Iowa and USC are right now, I don’t see how it’s possible Iowa finishes ahead of USC if both teams win out. given Iowa’s remaining opponents and the media’s hard on for USC. sure, the voters might come around if Iowa tops Ohio State. but if USC beats Oregon and Zona, they’ll get that many more votes.
SMA, or someone else please tell me why I’m wrong.
by KentuckyThunderPussy on Oct 26, 2009 11:43 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
USC can jump Iowa in human polls
And still not jump iowa in BCS. Iowa will have a strangle hold on number 1 in the computers as long as they are undefeated.
Iowa only needs a number 5 ranking in the human polls to move to 3rd. USC’s computer ranking is terrible. Horrible. And too be honest I don’t see them beating Oregon.
by sfshilo on Oct 26, 2009 11:54 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
they're already ahead of Iowa
in the human polls. I’m talking BCS poll.
Iowa .8227
USC .7920
that seems pretty close to me. USC’s cpu ranking will get a significant boost with wins over Oregon and Zona.
as for them actually beating Oregon, tough call. USC opened as 3 point faves.
by KentuckyThunderPussy on Oct 26, 2009 12:14 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Those numbers also show Iowa at 8/8 in the human polls
I find it hard to believe that Iowa will remain stuck at 8 in both human polls if they continue to win. A win in Columbus alone will force the pollsters to put Iowa ahead of the mid-majors. A big win this weekend could be enough to remove some doubt and help Iowa move up.
The numbers are close, but if Iowa keeps winning, USC’s computer rank may have to move at a ratio of 2:1 to Iowa’s human rank simply because there are 2 human polls. I think the math is in Iowa’s favor.
by The Mexican't on Oct 26, 2009 1:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You are assuming
that the Pete-Caroll-cock -loving voters would allow Iowa to stay ahead of USC. They know how the BCS works and could easily just vote USC number 1 and Iowa much lower just to get USC’s BCS score above Iowa’s. There is precedence for that kind of vote manipulation, when the voters dropped Michigan out of contention just so they wouldn’t have to see a rematch of MU v. tOSU in MNC.
by TEXaco on Oct 26, 2009 4:53 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Again.
They don’t need to be above USC to jump ahead of them in the BCS. Just high enough to get their average up above USC.
It’s math, not that hard.
by sfshilo on Oct 26, 2009 9:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The computers will have more love for USC
if they beat Oregon and Arizona. Just watch.
by YouCanPutYourEddsInIt on Oct 26, 2009 11:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Do you not understand the vote manipulation?
Really??
by TEXaco on Oct 26, 2009 11:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
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